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Thread: 2024 New Hampshire primary polling

  1. #1

    2024 New Hampshire primary polling

    NH-With less than two weeks to primary vote, Haley closes on Trump to single digits 39 - 3

    CNN Poll: Haley trims Trump’s lead to single digits in New Hampshire

    https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/09/polit...oll/index.html

    By Ariel Edwards-Levy, CNN

    Updated 6:49 AM EST, Tue January 9, 2024

    Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has trimmed former President Donald Trump’s lead in the Republican primary race in New Hampshire to single digits, according to a new CNN Poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire.

    Trump still holds a meaningful lead in the poll, with the backing of 39% of likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire compared to Haley’s 32%. The rest of the field lags far behind in the poll, with former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at 12%, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy at 8%, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 5% and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson at less than 1%.

    Support for Haley has risen 12 percentage points since the last CNN/UNH poll in November, continuing an upward trajectory that began last summer, while her opponents –- including Trump – have seen their numbers remain stable or tick slightly downward since autumn.

    Haley’s support has grown dramatically among those voters registered as undeclared, New Hampshire’s term for independent registrants – she’s up 18 points with this group since November. It has also grown 20 points among those who are ideologically moderate. Those gains come amid a push from her campaign in the state, including an endorsement last month from New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu. The Granite State’s GOP primary is January 23.

    The strength of Haley’s challenge to Trump in the state speaks to the contours of New Hampshire’s primary electorate, in which those more moderate and less staunchly partisan voters make up a larger share of participants than they do in Iowa’s first-in-the-nation caucuses, which are happening next week. Trump has crossed the 50% mark in most recent polling on the Iowa caucuses, and he holds wider majorities in national polls on the Republican nomination.

    A little more than 4 in 10 likely primary voters in the CNN/UNH poll are undeclared voters who plan to vote in the GOP primary (45%), rather than registered Republicans. About one-third describe themselves as moderates (32%).

    Trump leads Haley by 40 percentage points among conservatives, by 37 points among registered Republicans and by 17 points among those without college degrees, the poll finds. But Haley tops Trump by 42 points among moderates, 26 points among undeclared voters and 12 points among college graduates. Christie lands in second between Haley and Trump among each of those three groups.

    Haley’s supporters, however, remain less solidly committed than Trump’s base. While 80% of voters backing Trump say they’ve definitely decided on him, a slim 54% majority of Haley’s current backers say the same.

    Just 45% of those backing other candidates are decided, leaving room for further shifts in the race in the final two weeks of campaigning in the Granite State. Among those whose first choice for the nomination is neither Haley nor Trump, 36% say that Haley would be their second choice for the nomination, with 30% picking Trump as their top alternative. Those behind Christie break solidly toward Haley, with 65% saying they would support her were Christie not in the race, with fewer than 1 in 10 of his backers choosing any other candidate and 13% saying they would not vote. Christie has pushed back against calls from Haley allies to drop out, touting his direct opposition to Trump.

    At present, only two Republican candidates are viewed more favorably than unfavorably by likely GOP primary voters in the state: Trump (47% favorable, 38% unfavorable) and Haley (39% favorable, 35% unfavorable), each of whom is viewed positively by less than half of the likely electorate.

    Ratings for each of the major candidates now running have declined since last September. But DeSantis has seen a particularly notable decline: Just 29% now view him favorably, down from 44% early last autumn. Likely primary voters’ opinions of Ramaswamy are also negative, with their views of Hutchinson and Christie even further underwater.

    Though only about 4 in 10 likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire say they plan to vote for Trump, a 69% majority say they’re opposed to the ruling in neighboring Maine that Trump should not appear on the ballot based on the 14th Amendment’s “insurrectionist ban,” which Trump’s team is challenging. Just 23% say they support the decision by Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, a Democrat, that Trump is ineligible to run in Maine’s GOP primary. Roughly three-quarters of likely Republican primary voters say they believe that partisan politics factored at least somewhat into the ruling, with 63% saying they factored “a lot” into the decision by Bellows. A minority of likely Republican primary voters (39%) say that Trump bears a great deal or a good amount of responsibility for “what happened at the U.S. Capitol” on January 6, 2021, when rioters entered the US Capitol during the certification of the 2020 election results.

    Within the likely GOP electorate, there’s a significant divide between Trump’s supporters and those who don’t back the former president. Virtually all Trump supporters in New Hampshire strongly oppose the ruling blocking him from Maine’s ballot (99%), and just 3% say he bears much responsibility for the events of January 6. Views are less unanimous among those likely GOP primary voters who aren’t backing Trump. While half oppose the Maine ruling, 38% support it, with another 12% neutral or unsure. A 63% majority say Trump bears at least a good amount of responsibility for what happened on January 6.

    There’s also a divide between Republican primary voters and the state’s residents as a whole. New Hampshire residents say, 49% to 42%, that they support the ruling that Trump is ineligible to run in Maine’s GOP primary, although a 54% majority also say they believe partisan politics factored at least somewhat into the decision. Most, 63%, say Trump bears a great deal or a good amount of responsibility for what happened on January 6.

    President Joe Biden’s job approval rating in New Hampshire stands at 42%, with 57% disapproving, according to the poll.

    Biden, who did not file to appear on New Hampshire’s primary ballot in order to comply with the Democratic National Committee’s delegate selection rules, nevertheless dominates the Democratic field: 69% of likely Democratic primary voters say they will write in his name, compared with 7% who plan to support Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips and 6% who say they will vote for author Marianne Williamson.

    About two-thirds of likely Democratic primary voters view Biden favorably (67%), with 16% viewing him unfavorably. Phillips’ favorability rating stands at just 10% among the likely electorate, with 30% viewing him unfavorably, and most neutral (24%) or unsure (36%). Williamson gets an 8% favorable rating, with half viewing her unfavorably.

    The CNN New Hampshire poll was conducted online January 4-8 by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Results among the full sample of 1,864 New Hampshire adults drawn from a probability-based panel have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.3 percentage points. Likely Republican and Democratic primary voters were identified through survey questions about their intention to vote. Results among 914 likely Republican primary voters have an error margin of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points. Results among 694 likely Democratic primary voters have an error margin of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.
    Last edited by Occam's Banana; 01-23-2024 at 09:45 PM. Reason: added previous thread title to body after merges/rename
    “It is not true that all creeds and cultures are equally assimilable in a First World nation born of England, Christianity, and Western civilization. Race, faith, ethnicity and history leave genetic fingerprints no ‘proposition nation’ can erase." -- Pat Buchanan



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  3. #2
    Krispy Kreme Kristy dropped out.

  4. #3
    Haley could possibly win NH with Christie out. What does that mean for Trump?

  5. #4
    christie out , I've always said it will be shocking if haley does not win nh. She is the kind of candidate they like. NH has elected some of the worst congress and senators in modern history
    Do something Danke

  6. #5
    Bet lots of Democrats are going to cross over and vote for Haley.
    "Perhaps one of the most important accomplishments of my administration is minding my own business."

    Calvin Coolidge

  7. #6
    NH doesn’t mean that much anymore, but Republican Party really needs to see Trump lose

    #play to win

  8. #7
    Democrats have essentially canceled their primaries, which will allow their voters to vote in the GOP primaries against Trump. The downside being they will vote for Haley, the worst candidate in the GOP primary.
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  9. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty View Post
    Democrats have essentially canceled their primaries, which will allow their voters to vote in the GOP primaries against Trump. The downside being they will vote for Haley, the worst candidate in the GOP primary.
    Democrats crossing over are shooting themselves in the foot voting for Haley. She is currently beating Biden more than Trump and DeSantis in all the polling.



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  11. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Anti Globalist View Post
    Bet lots of Democrats are going to cross over and vote for Haley.
    Dems there will be huge biden supporters and have little interest
    Do something Danke

  12. #10
    Looks to me like she was brought in to divide the vote.

  13. #11
    Wait until she swoops into South Carolina on her broomstick.

    The state that reanimated the corpse McStain and continues to give us Ms Lindsey.

    Not to mention the repulsivcan version of Hitlery herself.

    This is how the world will die.

  14. #12
    and what if trump still wins lol. His campaign has spent very little in NH at this point, just started TV ads last week. He will win Iowa, then win NH, and Haley won't even win her home state of SC.
    I just want objectivity on this forum and will point out flawed sources or points of view at my leisure.

    Quote Originally Posted by spudea on 01/15/24
    Trump will win every single state primary by double digits.
    Quote Originally Posted by spudea on 04/20/16
    There won't be a contested convention
    Quote Originally Posted by spudea on 05/30/17
    The shooting of Gabrielle Gifford was blamed on putting a crosshair on a political map. I wonder what event we'll see justified with pictures like this.

  15. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by sparebulb View Post
    Wait until she swoops into South Carolina on her broomstick.

    The state that reanimated the corpse McStain and continues to give us Ms Lindsey.

    Not to mention the repulsivcan version of Hitlery herself.

    This is how the world will die.
    Well since that state loves Lindsey the war breed love.

    I am sure they are going to support Haley just as well, there is no fixing to stupid.

  16. #14
    Something happened during Reconstruction to turn southern men to cucks.

    There is a distinctly effeminate nature to many southern white men.

    Not so much in the border states, but in the deep south.

    Perhaps it is the inbred surviving gene pool of the aristocrats who bought their way out of the war.

  17. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by sparebulb View Post
    Something happened during Reconstruction to turn southern men to cucks.

    There is a distinctly effeminate nature to many southern white men.

    Not so much in the border states, but in the deep south.

    Perhaps it is the inbred surviving gene pool of the aristocrats who bought their way out of the war.
    We talking about New Hampshire in this thread or . . .?
    Quote Originally Posted by timosman View Post
    This is getting silly.
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    It started silly.
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    I part ways with "libertarianism" when it transitions from ideology grounded in logic into self-defeating autism for the sake of ideological purity.

  18. #16
    Vita3 called it.

    NH doesn't matter unless they knock out Trump.

    South Carolina is where they will install the nominee.



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  20. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by spudea View Post
    and what if trump still wins lol. His campaign has spent very little in NH at this point, just started TV ads last week. He will win Iowa, then win NH, and Haley won't even win her home state of SC.
    Exactly, this is a propaganda poll.
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  21. #18
    The Bastiat Collection · FREE PDF · FREE EPUB · PAPER
    Frédéric Bastiat (1801-1850)

    • "When law and morality are in contradiction to each other, the citizen finds himself in the cruel alternative of either losing his moral sense, or of losing his respect for the law."
      -- The Law (p. 54)
    • "Government is that great fiction, through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else."
      -- Government (p. 99)
    • "[W]ar is always begun in the interest of the few, and at the expense of the many."
      -- Economic Sophisms - Second Series (p. 312)
    • "There are two principles that can never be reconciled - Liberty and Constraint."
      -- Harmonies of Political Economy - Book One (p. 447)

    · tu ne cede malis sed contra audentior ito ·

  22. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty View Post
    Democrats have essentially canceled their primaries, which will allow their voters to vote in the GOP primaries against Trump. The downside being they will vote for Haley, the worst candidate in the GOP primary.
    https://twitter.com/allinwithchris/s...26635344773288
    [article: https://www.offmessage.net/p/democrats-vote-for-haley]


    https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/statu...34939514048556

  23. #20
    Just wanted to add that many states allow voters to change party affiliation right up to election day. So it's not just states that are explicitly "open primary". IIRC, the party itself gets to decide if it's primaries will be open or not (that's the way it is in California), and the GOP generally has closed primaries, which means changing party is required to vote in the GOP primary.
    "Foreign aid is taking money from the poor people of a rich country, and giving it to the rich people of a poor country." - Ron Paul
    "Beware the Military-Industrial-Financial-Pharma-Corporate-Internet-Media-Government Complex." - B4L update of General Dwight D. Eisenhower
    "Debt is the drug, Wall St. Banksters are the dealers, and politicians are the addicts." - B4L
    "Totally free immigration? I've never taken that position. I believe in national sovereignty." - Ron Paul

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    The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own, and do not represent this forum or any other entities or persons.

  24. #21
    Fake News, totally fabricated.
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  25. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by Snowball View Post
    Fake News, totally fabricated.
    What part of it is fake? With Christie out, I think there is a real possibility Haley could win NH.

  26. #23
    AF, please correct me if I'm mistaken, but isn't NH rife with a third column of Massholes?

  27. #24
    Haley is worse than trump, a warmongering big govt pig.



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  29. #25

  30. #26
    No way she beats Trump in any state, and no way she gets within 5 points of him.
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  31. #27
    I'm pretty much feeling that all outcomes equals a Biden win.

  32. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by 69360 View Post
    Democrats crossing over are shooting themselves in the foot voting for Haley. She is currently beating Biden more than Trump and DeSantis in all the polling.
    The only reason polls are showing Haley beating Biden is because the polls are under the assumption that Trump would endorse Haley and all his supporters vote for her. Take Trump and his supporters out of the equation and Biden would be the one leading in the polls.
    "Perhaps one of the most important accomplishments of my administration is minding my own business."

    Calvin Coolidge

  33. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by sparebulb View Post
    AF, please correct me if I'm mistaken, but isn't NH rife with a third column of Massholes?
    Yes, and now, as well, increasing hordes of diversity.

    Sign around here popping up that declare "Welcome to New Massachusetts".

    Speaking of signs, still no yard, road or campaign signs to speak of.

    Weird...
    “It is not true that all creeds and cultures are equally assimilable in a First World nation born of England, Christianity, and Western civilization. Race, faith, ethnicity and history leave genetic fingerprints no ‘proposition nation’ can erase." -- Pat Buchanan

  34. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by Anti Globalist View Post
    The only reason polls are showing Haley beating Biden is because the polls are under the assumption that Trump would endorse Haley and all his supporters vote for her. Take Trump and his supporters out of the equation and Biden would be the one leading in the polls.
    GOP voters always support the nominee. If Trump gets removed from the race, it won't be any different than the past.

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