You're right. We'll never know. But notice that even your reasoning for why Ron Paul might not have done so well with blacks also goes back to an obvious appeal to white racism that was done in his name. Those newsletters are the only blot on an otherwise great record. I can explain away his Civil Rights Act vote. On the newsletters I just say "Well he didn't write them" but that's still not good. If the newsletters were pushing for gender affirming surgeries for minors I doubt many here would give them a pass just because he didn't write them. I'm willing to look past race baiting to a certain extent. Not everybody is. Trump did a lot of race baiting this time and still made modest gains percentagewise and didn't trigger a major voting "blacklash." Oh, and by the way, that's the answer to the "What happened to the millions of Biden voters from 2020" question. They stayed home.
Anyhow, Trump could make some real inroads in these next few years. He could follow through on the Platinum Plan. He could pardon the Uhuru 3. (Black people that Biden prosecuted for speaking out against the Ukraine War and going to the U.N. to speak out against genocide of African people in the U.S. and around the world.) He could get Tim Scott's police reform bill passed. He basically could complete being George C. Wallace. (Progressive who cloaked himself in segregationist rhetoric but ultimately came out of the closet as a progressive.)
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