
Originally Posted by
Matt Collins
The federal government will never let [secession] happen... ever. The only way secession is possible is if the federal government collapses (think currency crisis) or becomes completely impotent (think currency crisis).
Such broad and sweeping assertions as "the federal government will never let secession happen ... ever" are unwarranted. In any particular case, the feds might not want to permit secession, and they might succeed in preventing it (by reconciliation or coercion) - but neither (especially the latter) is such an automatically foregone conclusion as you are trying to make it out to be. They are not omnipotent - and thus, it is not a matter of their mere desire to disallow it. In the event of an attempted secession, it is a matter of whether they would possess both the will and the wherewithal to actually pay the (possibly enormous) costs necessary to forcibly prevent the attempt from occurring or succeeding. Contrary to your assertion, it is not at all evident (let alone absolutely certain) that they would in every scenario. (And exactly the same kinds of considerations confront the secessionists.)

Originally Posted by
Matt Collins
[S]ecession is pretty much impossible [...] because the geographic lines are urban vs non-urban. Yeah Texas could secede, but then Austin would do what? Georgia could decede, but Atlanta would then do what? Minnesota could secede, but the Twin Cities would then do what? Makes no sense.
There is no real mystery here - certainly not one that "makes no sense".
There is nothing particularly problematic about this "urban vs. rural" thing.
In the event of secession by Texas, it would be a matter for Austin [1] to assess and decide the following:
- Do we want to resist it?
- If we want to resist it, do we have the ability to do so?
- If we have the ability to do so, what is the price of resistance likely to be?
- Are we willing to pay that price? (IOW: Is it even worth it?)
If the answer to any of those questions [2] is "no" (and it is not at all clear that it "never ... ever" would be) - then there is no significant problem.
Blanket statements to the effect of "well, the feds (or Austin) don't want it to happen, therefore it's just 'never ... ever' gonna happen" are not to be taken seriously (except for the purpose of pointing out why they are not to be taken seriously).
[1] And not just Austin, but every locality within Texas, urban and rural.
[2] And not just those questions, but others as well - such as "Is some kind of negotiated mutually-acceptable reconciliation impossible?"
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