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Thread: The War on Guns Is Lost

  1. #1

    The War on Guns Is Lost

    I love the smell of napalm in the morning cope in the early afternoon.

    The New Republic admits defeat - or at least, one of its opinionators does.

    "It is possible that we may lose. It is impossible that we must lose. That is the white pill." -- Michael Malice

    The Grim Truth: The War on Guns Is Lost
    There are more unregistered guns in this country than are possessed by the Pentagon, DHS, and police departments combined. And Republicans want more of them.
    https://newrepublic.com/article/1717...-war-guns-lost
    Brynn Tannehill (10 April 2023)

    [bold emphasis added - OB]

    I wrote this article long before the latest mass shooting that just happened, this time in Louisville, Kentucky, because we all know the pattern, and it never changes. There’s a mass shooting and dead innocents, often children. Angry calls for Republicans to do something, and nothing gets done. The incident fades from the 24-hour news cycle, and we resume the waiting game for the next one. It’s Sisyphus with a boulder that rolls downhill and crushes him over and over for eternity.

    That’s something that people who support gun control measures need to understand: The war is lost. There is no conceivable way for things to change for the better within the next 20 to 30 years, short of a national divorce. There is no way to change hearts and minds of Republicans or the courts. There is no way to change who is in office in most states. There is no way to replace who sits on the courts quickly or change conservative disdain for stare decisis.

    In reality, mass shootings will only become more and more common over the next few years as Republicans have decided that the only solution to gun violence is adding as many guns as possible to the mix.

    At the state level, gerrymandering ensures that red states will never put in place elected representatives who would pass gun control. With the primary system as it is, there is zero chance that Republican primaries in these states would suddenly start producing candidates who would support limiting access to guns, much less taking away assault rifles.

    In blue states, they already know that there is no hope that the courts will uphold the laws they pass. The Supreme Court effectively overturned the California law that limited magazine size, after ruling in 2022 that states can do little to prevent anyone from buying a gun in New York State Rifle & Pistol Association v. Bruen. The conservative Fifth Circuit, based in New Orleans, ruled in 2023 that the Second Amendment prevents the government from taking guns from people under restraining orders for committing domestic violence. Nor is the government allowed to prevent them from buying guns.

    Some Republicans still want to pretend that they’re engaging with the subject seriously: blaming mental health issues, video games, lack of prayer in schools, and transgender people for mass shootings. But this is simply a distraction: Other countries have all those things, but they don’t have mass shootings. The United States is the only country where people have such ready access to hundreds of millions of firearms, and we are the only country where mass shootings happen with such grim regularity.

    The only solution proposed by Republicans is “more guns,” which is the modern equivalent of “No, no. Dig UP, stupid!” Proposals to arm teachers are obviously infeasible: If you don’t give teachers immunity from prosecution and lawsuits, they won’t carry and nothing changes. And if you do give them qualified immunity like cops, then you have the same problem you do with police: namely teachers blowing away mouthy eighth graders (who would be disproportionately Black or Hispanic), which is even worse than the status quo.

    Anyone who actually understands the issue knows: It’s the guns, stupid. Which is why in moments of candor Republicans tell the truth: “We’re not gonna fix it.” The Biden administration admitted there’s nothing else feasible that can be accomplished given the structure in place that guarantees nothing can, or will, be done. And the truth is, they’re correct.

    Republicans have no intention of doing anything because they’d get primaried if they did. And even if some Republicans agreed to try something, they’d need 60 votes to overcome the filibuster in a Senate where the system of apportionment gives Republicans a +7 advantage in elections (i.e., the Democrats would need to win the national vote by seven points every year just to keep the Senate 50–50, and win by more than 15 points over three election cycles to get to 60 votes).

    So substantive federal legislation is nigh impossible, but even if it did manage to get through the House, Senate, and White House, it would have to survive a Supreme Court that has already made it clear that it is not going to allow the government to come between people and unfettered access to weapons of war. These Supreme Court rulings will stand for decades. It is unlikely that anyone reading this will be alive when (and if) the Supreme Court ever reverses itself on gun laws. Any measure that survives both the legislative process and the courts cannot conceivably be substantive enough to have an effect.

    But even if you take this scenario a further order of magnitude into fantasy, there is still the reality that there are 400 million unregistered guns in this country, and 20 million of them are AR-15s. That’s more guns than are possessed by the Defense Department, Department of Homeland Security, and police departments combined. That’s more than all the guns manufactured by the U.S. in World War II. Any attempt to register this staggering array of weapons, much less take them away, is an impossible task with owners who are largely unwilling to comply.

    At the same time, red states have gone all in on weaponizing our society. We’re seeing permitless concealed carry, open carry, allowances to carry in more places, ending gun-free zones, laws banning red-flag laws; all the while, the number of guns in circulation keeps rising by the millions, year after year after year. Republicans keep insisting that the solution to gun violence is more guns, and they’re going to keep going with that theory no matter what the results are.

    This is a one-way ratchet: The path going forward has only one possible outcome. More guns, less regulation of their lethality, and less government authority over who owns them. Predicting the results is tragically easy: more lethality, more frequent mass shootings, more deaths per mass shooting, and more piles of dead children.

    For those advocating gun control, you can be civil if it makes you feel morally superior. You can be uncivil if it makes you feel better. You’ll get the same results either way: namely, nothing. I admire those working to try to change these policies. But it is counterproductive to pretend that there is a “normal” political or legal solution: Things are only going to get worse for at least the next 20 to 30 years, if not more, based on the stacked political system and the courts. The system is broken, and it is not fixable in any meaningful sense.

    Short of a national divorce, there is nothing that can be done at this point. Mass shootings, and the accompanying piles of dead bodies, are as American as Mom and apple pie. Continuing to pretend that our current system can fix this is tantamount to accepting the status quo. This is going to upset a lot of people and make them angry. I could be wrong; I’m not a psychic. However, no one has proposed a plausible way to get meaningful gun reform through. It’s not for lack of trying either: Every effort for the past decade has failed despite public outcry after each horrific mass shooting. If there was a way, someone would have already found it. But the truth hurts when it means changing your whole worldview: that the war is lost, and your country cannot be saved from not only what it has become but what it chooses to be.
    Last edited by Occam's Banana; 04-11-2023 at 12:37 PM.
    The Bastiat Collection · FREE PDF · FREE EPUB · PAPER
    Frédéric Bastiat (1801-1850)

    • "When law and morality are in contradiction to each other, the citizen finds himself in the cruel alternative of either losing his moral sense, or of losing his respect for the law."
      -- The Law (p. 54)
    • "Government is that great fiction, through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else."
      -- Government (p. 99)
    • "[W]ar is always begun in the interest of the few, and at the expense of the many."
      -- Economic Sophisms - Second Series (p. 312)
    • "There are two principles that can never be reconciled - Liberty and Constraint."
      -- Harmonies of Political Economy - Book One (p. 447)

    · tu ne cede malis sed contra audentior ito ·



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  3. #2
    I'm feeling all warm and fuzzy, but I don't think the outlook on gun control is as rosy as this author paints it.
    "The Patriarch"

  4. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by Origanalist View Post
    I'm feeling all warm and fuzzy, but I don't think the outlook on gun control is as rosy as this author paints it.
    Ain't no guns goin' anywhere.

    At worst, there might be some transient spikes in boating accidents.

    The best way to guarantee something doesn't go away is for the government to declare a "war" on it.

    (Just ask drugs. Or poverty.)

  5. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by Occam's Banana View Post
    Ain't no guns goin' anywhere.

    At worst, there might be some transient spikes in boating accidents.

    The best way to guarantee something doesn't go away is for the government to declare a "war" on it.

    (Just ask drugs. Or poverty.)
    They got rid of the guns in Afghanistan didn't they?

    Oh wait, they left more guns than they started with over there.

  6. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by Occam's Banana View Post
    I love the smell of napalm in the morning cope in the early afternoon.

    The New Republic admits defeat - or at least, one of its opinionators does.

    "It is possible that we may lose. It is impossible that we must lose. That is the white pill." -- Michael Malice

    The Grim Truth: The War on Guns Is Lost
    There are more unregistered guns in this country than are possessed by the Pentagon, DHS, and police departments combined. And Republicans want more of them.
    https://newrepublic.com/article/1717...-war-guns-lost
    Brynn Tannehill (10 April 2023)

    [bold emphasis added - OB]

    I wrote this article long before the latest mass shooting that just happened, this time in Louisville, Kentucky, because we all know the pattern, and it never changes. There’s a mass shooting and dead innocents, often children. Angry calls for Republicans to do something, and nothing gets done. The incident fades from the 24-hour news cycle, and we resume the waiting game for the next one. It’s Sisyphus with a boulder that rolls downhill and crushes him over and over for eternity.

    That’s something that people who support gun control measures need to understand: The war is lost. There is no conceivable way for things to change for the better within the next 20 to 30 years, short of a national divorce. There is no way to change hearts and minds of Republicans or the courts. There is no way to change who is in office in most states. There is no way to replace who sits on the courts quickly or change conservative disdain for stare decisis.

    In reality, mass shootings will only become more and more common over the next few years as Republicans have decided that the only solution to gun violence is adding as many guns as possible to the mix.

    At the state level, gerrymandering ensures that red states will never put in place elected representatives who would pass gun control. With the primary system as it is, there is zero chance that Republican primaries in these states would suddenly start producing candidates who would support limiting access to guns, much less taking away assault rifles.

    In blue states, they already know that there is no hope that the courts will uphold the laws they pass. The Supreme Court effectively overturned the California law that limited magazine size, after ruling in 2022 that states can do little to prevent anyone from buying a gun in New York State Rifle & Pistol Association v. Bruen. The conservative Fifth Circuit, based in New Orleans, ruled in 2023 that the Second Amendment prevents the government from taking guns from people under restraining orders for committing domestic violence. Nor is the government allowed to prevent them from buying guns.

    Some Republicans still want to pretend that they’re engaging with the subject seriously: blaming mental health issues, video games, lack of prayer in schools, and transgender people for mass shootings. But this is simply a distraction: Other countries have all those things, but they don’t have mass shootings. The United States is the only country where people have such ready access to hundreds of millions of firearms, and we are the only country where mass shootings happen with such grim regularity.

    The only solution proposed by Republicans is “more guns,” which is the modern equivalent of “No, no. Dig UP, stupid!” Proposals to arm teachers are obviously infeasible: If you don’t give teachers immunity from prosecution and lawsuits, they won’t carry and nothing changes. And if you do give them qualified immunity like cops, then you have the same problem you do with police: namely teachers blowing away mouthy eighth graders (who would be disproportionately Black or Hispanic), which is even worse than the status quo.

    Anyone who actually understands the issue knows: It’s the guns, stupid. Which is why in moments of candor Republicans tell the truth: “We’re not gonna fix it.” The Biden administration admitted there’s nothing else feasible that can be accomplished given the structure in place that guarantees nothing can, or will, be done. And the truth is, they’re correct.

    Republicans have no intention of doing anything because they’d get primaried if they did. And even if some Republicans agreed to try something, they’d need 60 votes to overcome the filibuster in a Senate where the system of apportionment gives Republicans a +7 advantage in elections (i.e., the Democrats would need to win the national vote by seven points every year just to keep the Senate 50–50, and win by more than 15 points over three election cycles to get to 60 votes).

    So substantive federal legislation is nigh impossible, but even if it did manage to get through the House, Senate, and White House, it would have to survive a Supreme Court that has already made it clear that it is not going to allow the government to come between people and unfettered access to weapons of war. These Supreme Court rulings will stand for decades. It is unlikely that anyone reading this will be alive when (and if) the Supreme Court ever reverses itself on gun laws. Any measure that survives both the legislative process and the courts cannot conceivably be substantive enough to have an effect.

    But even if you take this scenario a further order of magnitude into fantasy, there is still the reality that there are 400 million unregistered guns in this country, and 20 million of them are AR-15s. That’s more guns than are possessed by the Defense Department, Department of Homeland Security, and police departments combined. That’s more than all the guns manufactured by the U.S. in World War II. Any attempt to register this staggering array of weapons, much less take them away, is an impossible task with owners who are largely unwilling to comply.

    At the same time, red states have gone all in on weaponizing our society. We’re seeing permitless concealed carry, open carry, allowances to carry in more places, ending gun-free zones, laws banning red-flag laws; all the while, the number of guns in circulation keeps rising by the millions, year after year after year. Republicans keep insisting that the solution to gun violence is more guns, and they’re going to keep going with that theory no matter what the results are.

    This is a one-way ratchet: The path going forward has only one possible outcome. More guns, less regulation of their lethality, and less government authority over who owns them. Predicting the results is tragically easy: more lethality, more frequent mass shootings, more deaths per mass shooting, and more piles of dead children.

    For those advocating gun control, you can be civil if it makes you feel morally superior. You can be uncivil if it makes you feel better. You’ll get the same results either way: namely, nothing. I admire those working to try to change these policies. But it is counterproductive to pretend that there is a “normal” political or legal solution: Things are only going to get worse for at least the next 20 to 30 years, if not more, based on the stacked political system and the courts. The system is broken, and it is not fixable in any meaningful sense.

    Short of a national divorce, there is nothing that can be done at this point. Mass shootings, and the accompanying piles of dead bodies, are as American as Mom and apple pie. Continuing to pretend that our current system can fix this is tantamount to accepting the status quo. This is going to upset a lot of people and make them angry. I could be wrong; I’m not a psychic. However, no one has proposed a plausible way to get meaningful gun reform through. It’s not for lack of trying either: Every effort for the past decade has failed despite public outcry after each horrific mass shooting. If there was a way, someone would have already found it. But the truth hurts when it means changing your whole worldview: that the war is lost, and your country cannot be saved from not only what it has become but what it chooses to be.
    One of the deep fakes of the left is pretending U.S. is the worst country in the world when in absolute numbers that's Brazil and per capita the U.S. isn't even in the top 10.

    https://worldpopulationreview.com/co...ths-by-country

    Countries with the Highest Rates of Violent Gun Death (Homicides) per 100k residents in 2019
    El Salvador — 36.78
    Venezuela — 33.27
    Guatemala — 29.06
    Colombia — 26.36
    Brazil — 21.93
    Bahamas — 21.52
    Honduras — 20.15
    U.S. Virgin Islands — 19.40
    Puerto Rico — 18.14
    Mexico — 16.41
    .
    .
    .
    Gangs are much less of an issue in the United States, yet it is second only to Brazil on the list in total gun deaths. Many people understandably assume the high number of gun deaths in the U.S. is due to mass shootings, which receive frequent attention from the media. In truth, mass shootings account for only a small percentage of gun deaths in the United States. Rather, nearly two-thirds (63%) of gun deaths in the US in 2019 were suicides.

    Suicide is by far the leading cause of gun deaths in the U.S. which means mental illness is the main source of gun deaths in the U.S. and yet lefts think Republicans talking about mental health in relation to gun violence is a "distraction."
    9/11 Thermate experiments

    Winston Churchhill on why the U.S. should have stayed OUT of World War I

    "I am so %^&*^ sick of this cult of Ron Paul. The Paulites. What is with these %^&*^ people? Why are there so many of them?" YouTube rant by "TheAmazingAtheist"

    "We as a country have lost faith and confidence in freedom." -- Ron Paul

    "It can be a challenge to follow the pronouncements of President Trump, as he often seems to change his position on any number of items from week to week, or from day to day, or even from minute to minute." -- Ron Paul
    Quote Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty View Post
    The road to hell is paved with good intentions. No need to make it a superhighway.
    Quote Originally Posted by osan View Post
    The only way I see Trump as likely to affect any real change would be through martial law, and that has zero chances of success without strong buy-in by the JCS at the very minimum.

  7. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by Dr.3D View Post
    They got rid of the guns in Afghanistan didn't they?

    Oh wait, they left more guns than they started with over there.

  8. #7
    Short of a national divorce
    “It is not true that all creeds and cultures are equally assimilable in a First World nation born of England, Christianity, and Western civilization. Race, faith, ethnicity and history leave genetic fingerprints no ‘proposition nation’ can erase." -- Pat Buchanan

  9. #8
    Maybe fixing up the mental health crisis in America could be a starting point.



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  11. #9
    Good to see there's some leftist out there that concedes defeat on guns.
    "Perhaps one of the most important accomplishments of my administration is minding my own business."

    Calvin Coolidge

  12. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by Occam's Banana View Post
    Anyone who actually understands the issue knows: It’s the guns, stupid.
    Following that logic, a stabbing incident would be the fault of the knife.
    ... 9-11 was the fault of the airplanes.
    ... the deaths at the Alfred P. Murrah building were the fault of fertilizer and diesel fuel.

    One wonders why we bother apprehending people and trying them in court at all.
    You have the right to remain silent. Anything you post to the internet can and will be used to humiliate you.

  13. #11
    Well hey look at the bright side. We won on guns but lost on everything else. When it all desecnds into chaos, we get to live and the unarmed liberals will die.

  14. #12
    I don't agree
    The author leaves out one important piece of information.
    The regime change in the USA happened during the coup of 2020. They blatantly stole the election and got away with it because they had Soros backed judges and DA's already in place. Without a real insurrection (revolution) there is legally nothing we can do. It happened again in 2022 and once again, their judges and DA's had their backs. The only thing that did happen was that we managed to gain control of the House.....barely. Make no mistake, this will not happen again. They are already getting set to finish taking full control in 2024 and there is NOTHING we can do about it. All we did by taking the house was postpone the inevitable by 2 years. They have already shown their agenda and are working night and day to make sure that in 2024, we will NEVER have a say in how this country is run EVER again.
    They will change our elections and eventually do away with them all together because Rush was right, they do not believe in democracy or elections and are utterly disgusted that they even have to go through the process of stealing our elections. How dare we have a say in anything.
    They will ban the guns and magazines. They will hold manufacturers liable and put them out of business except for the ones they buy from. They will make ammo unaffordable and scarce just as gas will be in just 2 more years. As soon as they take full control, no more paper money. This is how they will control our purchases. We already know they are working on this right now as you read this. They are already setting up SCOTUS to get rid of the conservatives if anyone has been paying attention at all.
    In 2024, this country is going full woke fascist and there will be absolutely nothing we can legally do to stop it.
    The cheat is already in.
    The elections are already decided.
    We already lost in 2020 and we let them get away with it.
    Sorry to be the bearer of truth but reality is what it is.
    Do you want to know who you are? Don't ask. Act! Action will delineate and define you.
    Thomas Jefferson

  15. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by showpan View Post
    I don't agree
    The author leaves out one important piece of information.
    The regime change in the USA happened during the coup of 2020. They blatantly stole the election and got away with it because they had Soros backed judges and DA's already in place. Without a real insurrection (revolution) there is legally nothing we can do. It happened again in 2022 and once again, their judges and DA's had their backs. The only thing that did happen was that we managed to gain control of the House.....barely. Make no mistake, this will not happen again. They are already getting set to finish taking full control in 2024 and there is NOTHING we can do about it. All we did by taking the house was postpone the inevitable by 2 years. They have already shown their agenda and are working night and day to make sure that in 2024, we will NEVER have a say in how this country is run EVER again.
    They will change our elections and eventually do away with them all together because Rush was right, they do not believe in democracy or elections and are utterly disgusted that they even have to go through the process of stealing our elections. How dare we have a say in anything.
    They will ban the guns and magazines. They will hold manufacturers liable and put them out of business except for the ones they buy from. They will make ammo unaffordable and scarce just as gas will be in just 2 more years. As soon as they take full control, no more paper money. This is how they will control our purchases. We already know they are working on this right now as you read this. They are already setting up SCOTUS to get rid of the conservatives if anyone has been paying attention at all.
    In 2024, this country is going full woke fascist and there will be absolutely nothing we can legally do to stop it.
    The cheat is already in.
    The elections are already decided.
    We already lost in 2020 and we let them get away with it.
    Sorry to be the bearer of truth but reality is what it is.
    You’re missing a piece of information. The Courts are NOT banning guns and have done the opposite. The Bruen case stated that there has to be a historic reference to a law back in the 17 and 1800’s banning or restricting guns and there isn’t. The lower courts have the most part enforced the Supreme Court rulings. The 2020 election rulings are NOT gun cases. I don’t know why they didn’t look at the 2020 election but I do know that they have been ruling in favor of gun rights.
    Last edited by dude58677; 04-14-2023 at 06:26 AM.

  16. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by AngryCanadian View Post
    Maybe fixing up the mental health crisis in America could be a starting point.

    Modern problem solvers are lazy and have to have turn around in short time frames. Much easier to bandaid problems than deep dive into systemic changes.
    Too difficult and hard to fix and they aren't really interested anyhow because of a number of factors.
    The wisdom of Swordy:

    On bringing the troops home
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    They are coming home, all the naysayers said they would never leave Syria and then they said they were going to stay in Iraq forever.

    It won't take very long to get them home but it won't be overnight either but Iraq says they can't stay and they are coming home just like Trump said.

    On fighting corruption:
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Trump had to donate the "right way" and hang out with the "right people" in order to do business in NYC and Hollyweird and in order to investigate and expose them.
    Fascism Defined

  17. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Anti Globalist View Post
    Good to see there's some leftist out there that concedes defeat on guns.
    Maybe we got them demoralized!
    "I shall bring justice to Westeros. Every man shall reap what he has sown, from the highest lord to the lowest gutter rat. They have made my kingdom bleed, and I do not forget that."
    -Stannis Baratheon

  18. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by dude58677 View Post
    You’re missing a piece of information. The Courts are NOT banning guns and have done the opposite. The Bruen case stated that there has to be a historic reference to a law back in the 17 and 1800’s banning or restricting guns and there isn’t. The lower courts have the most part enforced the Supreme Court rulings. The 2020 election rulings are NOT gun cases. I don’t know why they didn’t look at the 2020 election but I do know that they have been ruling in favor of gun rights.
    NO, I haven't missed anything at all. Read what I wrote again. Doesn't matter what the courts are doing now because it is all about to change. They are already setting up Clarence Thomas and they haven't even stolen the next election yet....lol. Who do you think is going to get to pick the next SCOTUS judges? Once that happens, say goodbye to the 1st and 2nd amendment. If you think that this isn't going to play out exactly as I stated, you are only lying to yourself. The Democrats have SUCCESSFULLY used our own justice system against us so that there is NO legal recourse for us. The regime change and coup is already done and over. Winning the house only postponed this for 2 years. The Supreme court is next. Enjoy the next year and a half because after that, we are going full woke fascist.
    Do you want to know who you are? Don't ask. Act! Action will delineate and define you.
    Thomas Jefferson



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  20. #17

  21. #18
    They're really getting desperate.

    https://twitter.com/gunpolicy/status...18408701546751


    PDF file: https://storage.courtlistener.com/re...71483.49.0.pdf

    [images hidden to save space]
     


    Last edited by Occam's Banana; 09-19-2023 at 02:32 PM.

  22. #19

  23. #20

  24. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by Occam's Banana View Post
    //
    I hear the California market for Copium is booming rn...

    Jer. 11:18-20. "The Kingdom of God has come upon you." -- Matthew 12:28

  25. #22

  26. #23
    One of the reasons the "War on Guns" is lost: Gun grabbers are not impressive people [thread]

  27. #24
    "Until we pass Constitutional amendment to protect kids and end gun violence epidemic in America"

    By breaking the Constitution? there are simple reasons for the gun violence epidemic in America, which most on the left nor some arent willing to tackle.

    Much of the crime by guns isn't committed by "white flocks"



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  29. #25
    __________________________________________________ ________________
    "A politician will do almost anything to keep their job, even become a patriot" - Hearst

  30. #26

  31. #27

  32. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by Occam's Banana View Post
    National gun reform requires an unlikely trifecta — Democratic control of the Presidency, House, and a filibuster-proof Senate. That’s happened once since 1994, it lasted for about six months, and even then Democrats were not able to pass any significant gun reform legislation. Without that hat trick, experience shows that our federal laws will not materially change, no matter how many shootings take place, or how heinous any particular shooting is.
    IOW: The war on guns is lost - and they know it.

    This would essentially close stores that sell guns in our state, since virtually all such stores are corporate entities. That would not eliminate gun violence, [...]
    LOL

    LMAO, even.
    ↓↓↓

    Quote Originally Posted by Occam's Banana View Post

  33. #29

  34. #30


    Signs of Civil Disobedience in Illinois Gun Registration Efforts
    https://bearingarms.com/camedwards/2...efforts-n77716
    {Cam Edwards | 27 November 2023}

    There’s just a little more than a month left before Illinois gun owners must register their so-called assault weapons with the state police or risk the possibility of criminal charges if they’re caught with their modern sporting rifle, and so far it looks like many gun owners are willing to run that risk. As of November 21st, fewer than 3,500 gun owners have registered some 6,600 newly banned firearms with the state police; about 0.001 percent of the state’s 2.4 million legal gun owners.

    So far state officials are downplaying the lack of compliance, suggesting there’ll be a flood of new registrations as we get closer to the January 1 deadline.

    On Oct. 31, when about 2,000 people had registered their grandfathered-in assault weapons about a month into the policy being in effect, Illinois State Police Director Brendan Kelly said the registration process had been “slow but steady.”

    "We’ll just see how the process continues to work and we’ll share the data as we continue on a daily basis to do so,” Kelly said during an unrelated event in Springfield.

    Two days later in Lake Forest, Gov. J.B. Pritzker downplayed any suggestion that not enough people owning the prohibited guns were registering them, saying it was too early to make such an assessment and suggesting registration would pick up closer to Jan. 1.

    "I can tell you, at least for me, that I think all of us take our time sometimes when we know the deadline is two-and-a-half months (away), that we’ll find the time eventually to go online, which is what they need to do and to register as they’re required to do,” Pritzker said.

    Maybe Pritzker’s right, but if I were him I wouldn’t bet his billion-dollar fortune on his assumption that gun owners are just waiting for the last minute to comply with the state’s mandate. Sure, some folks may be holding off in the hopes that the federal courts will put a halt to the Illinois law before the reporting requirements kick in, but with scores of county sheriffs and even some prosecutors saying that they don’t plan on proactively enforcing the “assault weapons” ban my guess is that when the deadline rolls around there are still going to be an awful lot of gun owners who haven’t informed the state that they possess a now-banned rifle, pistol, or shotgun.

    After Pritzker signed the gun ban into law, an estimated 90 of Illinois’ 102 county sheriffs issued letters stating they “believe that (the new gun law) is a clear violation of the Second Amendment to the U.S. Constitution” and that they wouldn’t enforce it.

    At public hearings in Springfield and Chicago earlier this month, state police heard concerns about the ban and its registration requirement from several gun rights advocates. One Republican lawmaker predicted that “hundreds of thousands” people would “absolutely not comply” with registering their weapons.

    “We know this public hearing is taking place because (of) the governor and his radical-left agenda,” state Rep. Brad Halbrook, a Shelbyville Republican who is a member of the House Freedom Caucus, a group composed of his chamber’s most conservative legislators, testified before the state police. “He and his Democrat legislators passed this bill and then laid it at your feet to have to deal with it.”

    So far Halbrook’s prediction looks to be pretty accurate. The number of registered guns will undoubtedly go up, of course, but I’d still be shocked if there was a big surge in the days before the mandate takes effect. When New York mandated a similar registration of “assault weapons” as part of the SAFE Act in 2013, we saw “massive noncompliance” on the part of gun owners more than two years after the deadline passed. Attorney Paloma Capanna had to sue the state police to get the numbers, and learned that just 44,000 guns out of an estimated 1 million “assault weapons” had been registered with the state police.

    Capanna said that the high rate of noncompliance with the law could only be interpreted as a large-scale civil disobedience, given the high level of interest and concern about the law on the part of gun owners.

    “It’s not that they aren’t aware of the law,” said Capanna. “The lack of registration is a massive act of civil disobedience by gun owners statewide.”

    Don’t be surprised to see the same phenomenon play out in Illinois, especially with the vast majority of sheriffs indicating they have no plans on enforcing the gun ban or its registration requirements. The odds of getting hit with a misdemeanor charge for maintaining possession of a so-called assault weapon without informing the state is fairly low, at least for downstate gun owners in more conservative counties, and that may be enough potential protection for them to run the risk of criminal charges and engage in their own act of civil disobedience by refusing to comply with the state’s mandate going forward.
    Last edited by Occam's Banana; 11-27-2023 at 03:04 PM.

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