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Um, OK...
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Quoting myself from a different thread:
Current number of donors per hour is bouncing between 3100 and 2900, a difference of only ~6%. Because this percent is so low (even though a difference of 200 donors per hour is substantial), the running totals graph are going to look nearly linear. So the rate of donors is changing significantly over time in absolute terms, but in relative terms, when considering the percentage, the variation is negligible.As has been said, the graphs were accurately reporting the donations, and they were not hitting any maximum rate limit. I thought this was the case a while back, after one of the first emails from the campaign prompted one of the first big donation days after http://ronpaulgraphs.com was set up. However, if you check out http://paulcash.slact.net, you'll see that there is a donation rate graph, and there will be spikes and dips in the rate. It's just that on heavy donation days, the differences between spikes and dips aren't as large relative to each other, even though they are quite large.
For example, it might vary anywhere between $200,000 per hour and $160,000 per hour on a day like the 5th. This is only a 20% drop, but it's $40,000 per hour difference. On slower days, it might vary between $2,000 per hour, and $500 per hour. This is a 75% drop, but only $1,500 difference. If you only pay attention to the absolute differences between $40,000 per hour and $1,500 per hour, you'd think that the graph for the big day would look a lot more uneven, since its donation rate is changing by much larger amounts. But in reality, it is the percentage that determines how straight or uneven the donation totals graph is, and a 20% variation will make a much straighter looking line than a 75% variation.
The end result: The bigger the donation day, the more likely the graph is going to look rather straight. We should expect this, and not be surprised when it happens.
I guess that's why there are right now, all these threads being started by people saying they can't donate because the server is overloaded... Shucks, what a coincidence...
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Also, as far as the people who say a lot more got through right after midnight ... there weren't untold tens of thousands watching the widget or going to the site at midnight either. There were a decent amount, but a far greater percentage that went to the site/watching early last night were there to donate, compared to now. As such, more got through because the server wasn't overloaded with others.
No, I don't have numbers to back that up... but it just makes sense.
Umm...
A linear graph.
People reporting server overload.
I think the burden of proof shifts to you my friend.
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Gosh, how hard is this to comprehend?
I think we need to make a rule that only people that passed 3rd grade can post in this thread...
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And as far as people pointing to the 5th and claiming "They said it on the 5th and it wasn't true.. it isn't true now"... I don't see how that's a valid argument in the least.
There were worries on the 5th that didn't materialize. There's proof of the server being overloaded now. There's a significant difference.
If there were a limit to the rate of donations the site could take, then why is the slope of today's line steeper than the November 5th line?
Don't worry, under Ron Paul, the educational system will get better!!
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Um, the graph IS linear, goose! Gosh... Having a few little bumps does NOT stop it from being a linear graph.... GO TO FRICKEN SCHOOL OR SHUTUP.
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I don't find it all that statistically improbable. When you have so many people donating, I don't find it surprising that any momentary rate of donation is pretty close to the average rate of donation.
That said, I could imagine that the servers are having a problem. People saying they're having problems are good evidence of this. A linear looking running-total graph doesn't convince me, though. It looked linear on Nov. 5th, but it wasn't a server problem then.
Regardless, server overload or no, why continue to argue over it? Though I suppose I'm just as guilty of simply trying to push my opinion. (And it isn't even a strong opinion! What's wrong with me? Internet forums do evil things to people's behavior.) So I'm just gonna drop it. If there are no significant server problems (if complaints happen to actually be very infrequent compared to the overall number of successful and quick donations), then it doesn't matter. And if there are server problems, what can we possibly do about it? At this point, it's just a matter of being right or wrong about what's happening, and that isn't really all that important.
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You're right, there definitely is a server overload!! I'm not disputing this, and I'm happy and sad at the same because of it.
But the graphs are correct, they are measuring small changes in donation rate that are a combination of server-limiting and a natural change in the increase/decrease of donation attempts throughout the day. I stand by my "resolution is too low" to notice small changes in the slope of the ronpaulgraphs.com graphs. Not that it really matters.
It's just that a linear graph is not sufficient to show that there is a back-up of some form. However, it is a necessary result, so if there are back-ups, there will definitely be a linear graph. It's just that we can't say that a linear graph proves the existence of back-ups.
Sorry, I just took a logic class this semester. Just be glad I didn't symbolize the whole thing. I was very tempted.
The resolution isn't low at all for a graph marking out only 24 hours. Look at the other graphs from previous days and TRY to find any linear lines with the exception of the occasional burst from people donation $2300 at one.
You guys that are arguing, you're asking for evidence which we have provided. Yet you ask for more. What you're really asking for is to have it broken down so YOU can understand it. Sorry, it's going to have to be up to you to learn a bit instead of us having to dumb it down.
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Guys, if the servers were "maxed out", meaning they were accepting as many transactions per second as they could handle, then the rate of donations would be constant.
But the rate is not constant.
If you don't want to believe this, that's fine.
The graph looks pretty darn linear at a macro scale, and people are reporting difficulty getting their donations to go through, but the rate per hour did exceed $400K shortly after midnight, so the current $300-330K shouldn't be the credit card processing limit. I'm thinking it's just the overloaded server from people checking the total too often.
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I agree with you. I think looking at the $/hour donation line and claiming "linear = overload" is ridiculous (The $/time will vary with donation amounts which isn't going to affect the server.. # of donations will). I think looking at the donors/hour makes a lot more sense, is a lot more linear (over the timespan where there were reported problems) and makes for good *supporting* evidence that there was a problem a while ago, though.
The fact that people cannot access the donation site combined with the linear donation graph line and the nearly constant rate of donations per hour is very strong evidence that there is a limit to the number of donations that the server can process per hour. It is very unlikely for 28,000 donations to come in at the steady pace we can observe of ~3,000 per hour. The variations we see in the graphs result from the fact that the cap of donations per hour is not being continuously met. We reach the cap where the server cannot process any more donations and then the donation rate falls off as people wait to try again. Once people begin to try to donate once more, we again reach the server cap. Also, the donation rate of dollars per hour is nearly irrelevant in terms of this discussion because the server, if it is limited, will be limited in amount of donations per a time period, not an dollar amount per time period. So the variation in donations per hour results from the different amounts that people are donating, along with the cycle of donations observed, whereby the donation cap is hit and then falls off and then is hit again. the most convincing evidence for me that there is a cap on the number of donations per hour, is the relatively constant donations per hour. The linear line we observe in total donations is a result of this relatively constant rate of donations per hour and the fact that most people will be donating the $100 dollar amount. The fact that the graph is rising by roughly $300,000 combined with the relatively constant rate of donations of about 3,000 per hour and the fact that the tea party has specified a $100 donation, is strong evidence of a cap on the server's ability to handle a given number of donations per hour.
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Stop dreaming of what YOU can do - just do it
Why don't you ask these guys what they think the site can handle?
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