It's a question I've been asking myself for ages now (since Ron Paul '88 supposedly exposed libertarian-leaning Republicans as contrasted to non-libertarian-leaning Republicans). These days it seems to be more a case of MAGA-Republicans contrasted against non-MAGA-Republicans. There's been a lot of polling showing this divide, but I'll refer to the Vanderbilt poll in December 2022.
But MAGA is not the only divide, there's abortion as well (it seems the stumbling block has to do with when abortion should be legal/illegal). I supposed there have always been "shades of gray" about abortion, but the Republican platform from Roe to Dobbs was always black and white; whereas shades of gray have creeped in since Dobbs due to the political realities of getting elected.Tennessee Republicans favor Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis over former President Donald Trump to be the party’s presidential nominee in 2024 by double digits, according to the latest statewide Vanderbilt Poll. Among the registered Republicans who were interviewed, DeSantis leads Trump 54 percent to 41 percent in a head-to-head matchup.
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Perhaps of greatest relevance are the divisions emerging among Republicans in the GOP stronghold of Tennessee. When asked, 34 percent of Republicans say they are “more of a supporter of the Make America Great Again, or MAGA, movement” than they are a “supporter of the Republican Party.” That so many Republicans think of themselves as more MAGA than classic supporters of the GOP has important implications, given the differences between MAGA and non-MAGA Republicans.
Consider the following: In a potential matchup between Trump and DeSantis, 60 percent of MAGA Republicans back Trump. Yet 66 percent of non-MAGA Republicans back DeSantis. This is a stark difference, according to the pollsters.
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Consider the following: Only 21 percent of MAGA Republicans agree with the statement “Joe Biden won the 2020 presidential general election.” By contrast, 51 percent of non-MAGA Republicans believe Biden won.
Less than 40 percent of MAGA Republicans thought the 2022 midterm elections were counted fairly and accurately nationwide, compared to 62 percent of non-MAGA Republicans, 71 percent of Independents and 96 percent of Democrats.
In regard to views about abortion, 75 percent think abortion should be legal in Tennessee if the pregnancy is the result of rape or incest. Support for such exceptions is strong regardless of partisanship—62 percent of Republicans, 78 percent of Independents and 93 percent of Democrats agree. That said, there is also strong support for abortion restrictions after 15 weeks, under some conditions. For this question, 69 percent of registered voters—including 88 percent of Republicans, 47 percent of Democrats and 62 percent of Independents—think “abortion should be illegal after 15 weeks except in cases of rape, incest or to save the life of the mother.”
Further, there is evidence that opinions toward abortion in Tennessean have changed, in part due to the Dobbs decision. In 2022, 37 percent of those surveyed said they were pro-choice, up 15 points from 2012, when only 22 percent favored pro-choice policies. The support for a pro-life position dropped from 46 percent in 2012 to 36 percent in 2022.
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