2 major banks about to go under:

[Matt Collins]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wIAGcP3aOeU

[Brian4Liberty]

I'd wager Credit Swisse executives attended this...




http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...iss-are-Insane

[Krugminator2]

While Credit Suisse and Deutche Bank *may* need a bailout, I am wondering who I should listen to on this. Entertaining Youtube guy or this guy who specializes in distressed debt. https://www.risk.net/awards/7738506/...41.7%20billion.

and this joke to drive home the point.

[oyarde]

Uh , dont think I'd be comparing anything to GM if the intent is to make people feel better.

[Brian4Liberty]

Uh , dont think I'd be comparing anything to GM if the intent is to make people feel better.

Privatize the profits, socialize the losses. Works every time.

[Madison320]

Privatize the profits, socialize the losses. Works every time.

True with GM but I'd argue it's the other way with most big corporations. The government gets most of the profits, the owners get the scraps.

[Madison320]

While Credit Suisse and Deutche Bank *may* need a bailout, I am wondering who I should listen to on this. Entertaining Youtube guy or this guy who specializes in distressed debt.

I tend to listen to macro economic data and logic over either of those sources.

It's impossible to remove decades of cheap money without having a financial crisis. This is just another version of the broken window fallacy where people focus on only one aspect of the economy and ignore the whole. As a whole the economy was subjected to with debt, artificially low rates and money printing. You can't remove that without a massive crash. Which is why the central banks are going back to cheap money.

I'm not smart enough to know the specifics of who is going to fail and when but it has to happen.

As I've been saying I think they may try a slightly different tactic this time. QE with higher rates. That's just a guess but I suspect it may buy them some more time, although it's going to make the problem worse in the long run.

[Krugminator2]

I tend to listen to macro economic data and logic over either of those sources.

It's impossible to remove decades of cheap money without having a financial crisis. This is just another version of the broken window fallacy where people focus on only one aspect of the economy and ignore the whole. As a whole the economy was subjected to with debt, artificially low rates and money printing. You can't remove that without a massive crash. Which is why the central banks are going back to cheap money.

I'm not smart enough to know the specifics of who is going to fail and when but it has to happen.

As I've been saying I think they may try a slightly different tactic this time. QE with higher rates. That's just a guess but I suspect it may buy them some more time, although it's going to make the problem worse in the long run.

I have no idea how to analyze distressed debt. A guy who is is better than 99.9% of people at it doesn't seem immediately worried. He seems like someone worth listening to. I wouldn't be stunned if all of this ends in a European banking crisis. A large number of UK mortgages are adjustable rate that will start adjusting in the first quarter of 2023 at super high rates. And here is a crazy chart of Canadian home loans that show how their housing bubble is multiples that of the 04-07 bubble in the US. But I don't think it is worth guessing at this.




I just don't think a major crisis is imminent. The gold standard is the spread between the 3 mo and 10 year treasuries. It still hasn't inverted. The spread is around .5 which puts recession probability in the next few quarters at only 15%. https://www.cnbc.com/us-treasurys/ https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibr...sues/ci2-7.pdf

[Madison320]

I have no idea how to analyze distressed debt. A guy who is is better than 99.9% of people at it doesn't seem immediately worried. He seems like someone worth listening to. I wouldn't be stunned if all of this ends in a European banking crisis. A large number of UK mortgages are adjustable rate that will start adjusting in the first quarter of 2023 at super high rates. And here is a crazy chart of Canadian home loans that show how their housing bubble is multiples that of the 04-07 bubble in the US.

It sure looks like the UK is screwed. They already bailed on the inflation fight and started printing again. They're in the middle of the Russia/Ukraine war. Energy costs are skyrocketing and winter is coming. Not good.

As far as no crisis being imminent here remember that it was like the day before the pivot that the BOE was still talking tough on inflation. That being said I have no idea of the timing of the crisis for us. Although I do think the pivot is coming soon, within 6 months or so. If I had to bet I'd say we could have several more round of easing/tightening before the final crisis sets which will be high to hyperinflation. I'm guessing this next pivot will lead to new highs in commodities and cpi above 15%. Then they'll pretend to go on another inflation fight. Maybe bring it down to 8% before the next crisis.

I still think the Fed's balance sheet hits 10 trillion before it hits 8 trillion. They've barely done any QT. I don't think they've sold any bonds, just mortgages. I think that's why the spread between 30 yr treasuries are at 3.7 and 30 yr mortgage rates are at 7.5.

Question for you. What do you think is going to happen with mortgage rates? I'm planning on moving to a different city, the houses are about the same price but I'd get killed going from 3.5% to 7.5%. I told my wife either rates need to come down or my investments need to go up (so I could put in a big down payment).

[Swordsmyth]

Credit Suisse Sells Off Iconic Zurich Savoy Amid Rumors

https://www.thefinancialtrends.com/2...y-amid-rumors/

[Krugminator2]

Maybe

[Swordsmyth]

Credit Suisse Faces 8 Billion Swiss Franc Hole

https://www.thefinancialtrends.com/2...ss-franc-hole/

[Swordsmyth]

Credit Suisse Continues To Decline Amid Continued Outflows

https://www.thefinancialtrends.com/2...nued-outflows/