Fed Meetings Show .5% Hikes For Next Two Meetings

[Swordsmyth]

That's higher than I thought they could get. Something is going to break. And if by some miracle nothing breaks and all the banks stay solvent, in the end the fed will have to pivot to keep the US from defaulting on its debt. If rates go to 5% that means the interest payments on the debt will go to over 1.5 trillion. That would be close to half our total tax revenue.

Or maybe the plan is to default.
Our credit would be ruined but we can take all the money we pay on the debt and use it for the budget instead of borrowing.
They can always directly print the money too.

[Madison320]

Or maybe the plan is to default.
Our credit would be ruined but we can take all the money we pay on the debt and use it for the budget instead of borrowing.
They can always directly print the money too.

Default would be a good thing. It would make it harder for us to borrow in the future.

October they reduced the balance sheet by 80 billion which is the most since they started. The overall reduction is still tiny. My guess is that at some point they resume printing but keeps rates high in the hopes that it will buy them some time. Remember there's 2 things the fed can do, raise rates and print. The rate hikes get all the attention but I think the printing is more powerful and damaging.

They've raised rates many times in the past but they've never been able to reduce the balance sheet.

[oyarde]

That's higher than I thought they could get. Something is going to break. And if by some miracle nothing breaks and all the banks stay solvent, in the end the fed will have to pivot to keep the US from defaulting on its debt. If rates go to 5% that means the interest payments on the debt will go to over 1.5 trillion. That would be close to half our total tax revenue.

That appears to be where things are headed , inflation doesnt change much , they keep raising rates but in smaller increments , they cant reduce the balance sheet much , interest eats half the tax revenue , dems try to increase taxes , no growth in GDP , worst stagflation ever , stocks go up until they collapse etc

[Swordsmyth]

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic Says Inflation Not Responding Thus Far

https://www.thefinancialtrends.com/2...ding-thus-far/

[Swordsmyth]

Jeremy Hunt Says UK Officially In Recession

https://www.thefinancialtrends.com/2...-in-recession/

[Swordsmyth]

Fed Officials Indicate Monetary Policy Must Tighten Further To Become Restrictive

https://www.thefinancialtrends.com/2...e-restrictive/

[Swordsmyth]

Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes Show Rate Hike Pace Likely Slowing

https://www.thefinancialtrends.com/2...ikely-slowing/

[Swordsmyth]

Australia’s Central Bank Hikes 25 Basis Points

https://www.thefinancialtrends.com/2...-basis-points/

[Swordsmyth]

Dollar Rises Ahead Of FOMC Meeting And Inflation Print

https://www.thefinancialtrends.com/2...flation-print/

[Swordsmyth]

Bank Of England Raises Rates 50 Basis Points

https://www.thefinancialtrends.com/2...-basis-points/


Same thing the Fed just did.

[oyarde]

I think the only important lesson from this is fed raising rates , even mortgage rates hitting near the adjusted inflation mark being reported with ( double digit food )and energy removed has not made any real improvement to inflation as was expected. It was obvious from the beginning that there was no action taken for too long . Inflation still over 7 percent 19 months after it was 8 percent by the accounting they use. Dismal. Now we also know retail sales were down last month so there already probably is no growth going forward.

[Madison320]

I think the only important lesson from this is fed raising rates , even mortgage rates hitting near the adjusted inflation mark being reported with ( double digit food )and energy removed has not made any real improvement to inflation as was expected. It was obvious from the beginning that there was no action taken for too long . Inflation still over 7 percent 19 months after it was 8 percent by the accounting they use. Dismal. Now we also know retail sales were down last month so there already probably is no growth going forward.

I'm surprised they made it to 4.25% without a major crash. I'm guessing it's because a lot of the money that's been printed (8 trillion) is held in reserves so there's a buffer. But there will be a major crash at some point.

[Swordsmyth]

IMF Says Fed’s Restrictive Policy To Remain Through 2023

https://www.thefinancialtrends.com/2...-through-2023/

[Occam's Banana]

[Swordsmyth]

Fed’s Logan Says Rate Hikes Could Get Smaller, And Peak Rate Could Increase

https://www.thefinancialtrends.com/2...ould-increase/

[Swordsmyth]

Fed Hikes 25 Basis Points, Stocks Rise

https://www.thefinancialtrends.com/2...s-stocks-rise/

[Swordsmyth]

Fed Officials Indicate Rates May Go Higher
https://www.thefinancialtrends.com/2...may-go-higher/

[Swordsmyth]

Both Goldman And BofA Predict More Rate Hikes Coming

https://www.thefinancialtrends.com/2...-hikes-coming/

[oyarde]

General expectation at this point is inflation rises for Feb - Apr which will translate into more fed interest down the road. We shall see .

[Swordsmyth]

US Federal Reserve Warns More Rate Hikes Coming

https://www.thefinancialtrends.com/2...-hikes-coming/

[oyarde]

Ya , I'd expect high inflation and at least two more rate hikes. I.m basing that off just all the fed income tax refund money getting dumped into economy as soon as it arrives and lower energy bills until summer freeing up cash.The avg joe has had it pretty rough since Thanksgiving.

[Swordsmyth]

Oil Continues To Weaken Off Fed Fears

https://www.thefinancialtrends.com/2...off-fed-fears/

[Madison320]

Oil Continues To Weaken Off Fed Fears

https://www.thefinancialtrends.com/2...off-fed-fears/

The markets have been pretty boring for quite awhile now but I think that's about to change. The Fed, which has not lost money since like 1915 is starting to have massive losses the last couple months and a couple of US banks are failing now. I've been saying all along that it's either going to be a financial crisis or a depression or ultimately a potential default by the US that is going to force the Fed to start printing again.

Keep on eye on the fed's balance sheet. They printed a little this week but they've been printing a little one week then reducing by a bigger amount the next week for awhile now. But I have a feeling that's about to change.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monet...centtrends.htm

[Swordsmyth]

Jobs Report Comes In Hot

https://www.thefinancialtrends.com/2...-comes-in-hot/

[Bern]

SVB bank failure could make the Fed pause with rate hikes. The one thing the Fed cares about more than their public mandates is the health of the banking sector.

[Swordsmyth]

US Job Cuts Running At Record Levels

https://www.thefinancialtrends.com/2...record-levels/

[Madison320]

So the fed hiked rates by .25% and claimed they're continuing QT, meanwhile their balance sheet EXPANDED by 300 billion last week. How is that QT? That's like putting a dollar in your savings account but at the same time pulling 300 dollars out of your checking account and claiming you're still saving. Will anyone in the mainstream media call them on it?

The Fed has basically started the biggest QE program so far by insuring all bank deposits, yet all the idiots in the media can see is a measly quarter point rate hike. My guess is at some point people are going to notice when the balance sheet starts passing milestones like 10 trillion. So they bought themselves some time by lying about the fact that they've done a hard pivot back to easy money. At least they're not fudging the balance sheet ... yet. I'm not saying they will resort to that but there's going to be some serious pressure for them to start cooking the books.

[oyarde]

We dont really know if they fudge the balance sheet do we ?

[Madison320]

We dont really know if they fudge the balance sheet do we ?

I doubt they are yet. For one thing they showed the 300 billion in QE they did last week. For another they're still not in that much trouble yet. It might be hard to do to, you'd have to balance a whole bunch of things so they add up. I'm wondering if they do it in such a way that they can claim they're not really lying about the data. For example they might create second balance sheet and put the latest QE on that and if anybody asks they can say that's for the short term debt that's only temporary. But I think things will have to get a lot worse before that happens. When we're getting annual cpi readings north of 20% and banks and stocks are crashing and need to be bailed out with printed money then anything is possible.

[Swordsmyth]

Fed Raises Rates 25 Basis Points, Signals End Of Hikes Approaching

https://www.thefinancialtrends.com/2...s-approaching/