Stock Market Collapse Starts Tomorrow

[devil21]

https://news.sky.com/story/run-dynam...hours-12707014

The Bank of England's dramatic intervention today was in response to a "run dynamic" emerging in the British pensions system which could have resulted in the collapse of a swathe of institutions within hours, Sky News understands.

That in turn threatened the finances of many major banks, which would have faced severe troubles if those funds had collapsed. more at link

I think it's just temporarily delaying the inevitable so the liquidation operation can be completed.

I don't make memes but imagine the Pope's head instead:



(note: the Catholic News Agency article I posted earlier in the thread mentions only one commercial bank. A clue perhaps. This weekend there is more and more gossip that said bank is on the verge of collapse.)

[Brian4Liberty]

https://news.sky.com/story/run-dynam...hours-12707014

I think it's just temporarily delaying the inevitable so the liquidation operation can be completed.

...

The article is very vague about what was going to default. Long term bond funds? Money market funds?

[Krugminator2]

market only slightly down on horrific inflation print. Think this might be the reversal for 5 to 10% up. Stars aligned technically if there isn't some horrific event over the weekend.

[acptulsa]

market only slightly down on horrific inflation print.

Uh, yeah, at the rate the FRN is crashing, every price that doesn't double is a reduced price.

[devil21]

The article is very vague about what was going to default. Long term bond funds? Money market funds?

Perhaps it isn't a particular asset class or fund but rather a particular large international bank that can't withstand such massive liquidations? Note that the Catholic News Agency article I posted mentions only one commercial bank by name.....

I'm probably getting ahead of myself but I'll make a wild prediction that said bank officially collapses October 24. I do not advocate anybody make any money moves based on that. Just consider it as my belief that some dots are connecting and point to that. I've been wrong plenty of times before.

[oyarde]

At this point it looks likely the Dow could easily be down as much as 27 percent sometime in Oct for the yr while at the same time every 2k in cash is worth half what it was 9 months ago as far as what it'll buy . Hard to find anything positive about that. Be interesting to see if the fed can dump all the assets they'd like

[Krugminator2]

market only slightly down on horrific inflation print. Think this might be the reversal for 5 to 10% up. Stars aligned technically if there isn't some horrific event over the weekend.

Strongest two day rally of the year.

[sam1952]

Funny, my investment manager has been advising me not to be in cash. He doesn’t want me to miss a “run up” and lose money through inflation. My response was ok, so I should lose 15-30% in the market AND the cost of inflation on top of that.
All these guys care about is getting their 1 1/4% +- commission whether the market is up or down. They cant make their commission unless your invested with them. The sooner one realizes that the better.

[devil21]

Strongest two day rally of the year.

[Brian4Liberty]

Strongest two day rally of the year.

Did you go all in?

[Pauls' Revere]

Did you go all in?

Thats what my wife says!

[Krugminator2]

Did you go all in?

Just because the odds are high of it working doesn't make it any less scary and all it takes is one black swan to go bankrupt. Plus I was a week early. I bought the close on the 23rd. That post was the 30th. I had to ride out some pretty scary downside before the rally kicked in to sell into.

[devil21]

Seems like a reasonable time to bump this thread back up. Ides of March today, equinox on the 20th, (3-22)-(2023) a week away.

[Brian4Liberty]

Seems like a reasonable time to bump this thread back up. Ides of March today, equinox on the 20th, (3-22)-(2023) a week away.

I don't have any predictions this time. I did put in some limit orders to sell some banking stocks over a week ago. I guess that was a prediction. Wish it had been a market order instead. Didn’t execute.

[Krugminator2]

https://dailyspeculations.com/Letter/cane.htm

Henry Clews wrote in Twenty-Eight Years in Wall Street (1887):

“But few gain sufficient experience in Wall Street to command success until they reach that period of life in which they have one foot in the grave. When this time comes, these old veterans of the Street usually spend long intervals of repose at their comfortable homes, and in times of panic, which recur sometimes oftener than once a year, these old fellows will be seen in Wall Street, hobbling down on their canes to their brokers’ offices.

“Then they always buy good stocks to the extent of their bank balances, which they have been permitted to accumulate for just such an emergency. The panic usually rages until enough of these cash purchases of stock is made to afford a big “rake in.” When the panic has spent its force, these old fellows, who have been resting judiciously on their oars in expectation of the inevitable event, which usually returns with the regularity of the seasons, quickly realize, deposit their profits with their bankers, or the overplus thereof, after purchasing more real estate that is on the up grade, for permanent investment, and retire for another season to the quietude of their splendid homes and the bosoms of their happy families.”

Took the canes out today in the Russell on the open. We'll see.

[Krugminator2]

https://dailyspeculations.com/Letter/cane.htm



Took the canes out today in the Russell on the open. We'll see.

Russell has been a laggard and continues to lag which is a good lesson to not buy things that lag. But the general idea worked. 2.5% gain in the Russell from yesterday's open. Taking off half

Seems like a decent chance there is new bull market in tech given how it has held up.

[Krugminator2]

Russell down 2.4%. Short term March 17th (St. Patrick's Day) is the 4th most bullish day of the year. It is also Operations Expiration day which after a big up day has a bull bias. Decent odds of an intraday rally. Over the next week or two, market has a big bull bias. Biggest equity fund outflows since April 2020. https://www.lipperusfundflows.com/#c...gnup_trial.php

Edit: Closed flat without a rally from the original post. Kind of surprised Probably a lot of people not wanting to hold over the weekend and maybe somebody knows something. Maybe a few more percent down.