Stock Market Collapse Starts Tomorrow

[Firestarter]

Yesterday (even worse today?), the Dow Jones lost 1,063 points (3.12%), the Nasdaq Composite fell 4.99% (its lowest closing level since November 2020).
Both of those losses were the worst single-day drops since 2020.

The S&P 500 fell 3.56%.

This stocks plummet erased the rise from a day earlier.

The 10-year Treasury yield, which moves opposite of price, surged back above 3% on Thursday to its highest level since 2018.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/04/stoc...lose-news.html



The Bank of England also hiked interest rates to 1%.

With an expected inflation of 10.25% (nearly double its previous forecast of 5.75%).
https://news.sky.com/story/interest-...-high-12605700

[Madison320]

The Bank of England also hiked interest rates to 1%.

With an expected inflation of 10.25% (nearly double its previous forecast of 5.75%).
https://news.sky.com/story/interest-...-high-12605700

My guess is that most major countries are going to be hiking rates to try to stop inflation. The question is which ones will be able to without collapsing their economies and going back to easy money?

[Brian4Liberty]

Thursday’s stock market plunge was one of the worst in 10 years

[Madison320]

Thursday’s stock market plunge was one of the worst in 10 years

When the nasdaq gets below 10,000 or so I'm guessing we'll start hearing from fed members that they might not need as many rate hikes as previously thought.

[oyarde]

Oil around 105 , gold around 1863 , platinum 963 , palladium 2170 , rhodium 17k, Bitcoin down 10 percent ( over 32k), silver down two percent. S & P at 13 month low , Dow looks poised to go to 32k, Russell down 3 percent Nasdaq nearing 3 percent down , S & P down over 2 1/2 percent .

[Brian4Liberty]

Collapse continuing today.

[Madison320]

Collapse continuing today.

So the last time they tried to tighten (2019) they made it to about 2.5% before everything started to crash.

Since then we've printed another 5 trillion and borrowed another 8 trillion. So it's starting to look like .75% is the breaking point this time. That's not even going to faze price inflation.

[oyarde]

Collapse continuing today.

Dow only 125 over the 52 week low . Inflation keeps on chooglin'

[oyarde]

So the last time they tried to tighten (2019) they made it to about 2.5% before everything started to crash.

Since then we've printed another 5 trillion and borrowed another 8 trillion. So it's starting to look like .75% is the breaking point this time. That's not even going to faze price inflation.

I was thinking they'd try and take it to 2 percent but I think your right , 3/4 or 2 doesnt look to be enough to bring down the inflation they purposefully let get out of hand .

[Madison320]

I was thinking they'd try and take it to 2 percent but I think your right , 3/4 or 2 doesnt look to be enough to bring down the inflation they purposefully let get out of hand .

In theory you're supposed to raise rates higher than the rate of inflation to stop price inflation. That way you have a positive savings rate and people will save instead of spend. That would mean we'd have to raise rates at least to 8.5% to tame inflation. But then we'd have to default on us debt because we couldn't pay the interest.

You don't have to be a genius to figure this out. Think about it, since 2008 the debt has gone from 10 trillion to 30 trillion and the amount of printed money has gone from 1 trillion to 9 trillion. How can we get all that free stuff with no consequences? This is just the natural result of living beyond our means for decades. At some point we have to live below our means to balance things out.

[Brian4Liberty]

So the last time they tried to tighten (2019) they made it to about 2.5% before everything started to crash.

Since then we've printed another 5 trillion and borrowed another 8 trillion. So it's starting to look like .75% is the breaking point this time. That's not even going to faze price inflation.

I was thinking they'd try and take it to 2 percent but I think your right , 3/4 or 2 doesnt look to be enough to bring down the inflation they purposefully let get out of hand .

And meanwhile the Treasury is quietly selling bonds at 9.62%. If those weren’t limited to $10k person, the sh!t would have really hit the fan. Instead, it was just a trigger for the sell off that was just waiting to happen.

[Krugminator2]

This is one of the statistically best times to buy stocks. The market *can* do anything but I think most likely path is up over the short and medium term. So many thing lined up for a rally. Inflation peaked, sentiment and breadth washed out, a lot of long term trendlines and moving average support being touched. All of the froth was drained out. The junk SPACs and fad companies with no profits are down 80-90%. Small cap stocks are actually cheap if you don't think a recession is imminent.

Which incidentally the 3 month and 10 year which is the statistically most reliable is only pricing in a 4% chance of recession. The 2 and 10 year is the more often quoted and that shows a 22% chance. https://www.frbsf.org/economic-resea...o-yield-curve/

The probability implied by the model using the 10y–3m spread paints an entirely different picture. It has been on a downward trend and currently hovers around 4%, the lowest level since early 2017.

[Firestarter]

According to Wall Street On Parade, the stock markets are manipulated.
.

Wall Street On Parade has been witnessing a persistent new pattern in the stock market for several months now where the market plunges at the open and then shortly thereafter, on no major news, it turns on a dime and spikes higher. This suggests one of two things to us: (1) either the New York Fed is manipulating stock trading out of its second office close to the futures markets in Chicago; or (2) big money at Wall Street trading houses and/or hedge funds are doing it.

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2022/...ing-to-ignore/

[Krugminator2]

According to Wall Street On Parade, the stock markets are manipulated.
.

https://wallstreetonparade.com/2022/...ing-to-ignore/

1. Markets don't go straight to zero. Stocks are not $#@!coins 2. There are always people who buy panic (i.e. me) 3. The market either gapped up or ripped in the morning only to get sold hard into for five straight days before yesterday. So the premise and observation of your article is not even factually correct.

Also I noticed no posts from you about how much billionaires have lost in the last few months. A lot of posts how much they made on paper. You ranted about that for mulitple years. Netflix is 50% below where it was before the pandemic. Amazon dropped below pre-pandemic levels yesterday. Jeff Bezos has lost 30-40% of his net worth on top of his divorce. Facebook dropped roughly in half along with Mark Zuckerberg's net worth https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/03/mark...ares-tank.html

Four pages of rants that as of this moment today on May 13, 2022 turned out to be completely wrong. http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...a-crisis/page4

You going to own and take the L or just keep posting anti-business, conspiratorial nonsense.

[Firestarter]

So the premise and observation of your article is not even factually correct.

So "because" you, the never to be wrong one and only @Krugminator2, assumes that the financial markets aren't rigged, they aren't rigged?!?
You don't really have provided any evidence for these claims however, except for your circular reasoning, starting with a (wrong) hypothesis that proves your (wrong) hypothesis that the financial markets aren't rigged...

Also I noticed no posts from you about how much billionaires have lost in the last few months. A lot of posts how much they made on paper. You ranted about that for mulitple years. Netflix is 50% below where it was before the pandemic. Amazon dropped below pre-pandemic levels yesterday. Jeff Bezos has lost 30-40% of his net worth on top of his divorce. Facebook dropped roughly in half along with Mark Zuckerberg's net worth

Here you provide some off-topic details in an ad hominem attack. Giving one or 2 examples to the contrary doesn't really prove the overall thesis of my topic at all.
It's true that I haven't updated that thread. Of course you can expect me to do so, as most of the threads on RPF tend to be "one-post" threads, often a copy-pasted article with a copy-pasted title, and then when a new variation of the tale comes, a new similar thread is started over and over and over again.
So why do you criticise me for not keeping a topic updated, while practically nobody does?

For most of the "last few months" I didn't post here at all, disgusted with the "one-post" threads and trolls that aren't really trying to post "the truth", but instead post one-sided propaganda and troll the hell out anybody that posts information that shows a different perspective. So your argument also fails in other ways.

This is from the Bloomberg that you adore so much (from January).

According to Bloomberg, the richest 500 billionaires on earth, increased their total wealth with some $1 trillion (882 billion euro) in 2021 to a grand total of more than $8.4 trillion.
The world's 10 richest added a total of $402 billion to their wealth in 2021.

Billionaires-profit-from-the-corona-crisis

[Krugminator2]

So "because" you, the never to be wrong

I own when I am wrong.

This is from the Bloomberg that you adore so much (from January).

So no taking the L from you?

I saw the article before I posted. It's May 13. Not December 31st. That article may as well have been written in 1800. The world completely changed. Nothing about it has relevance now. In case you have noticed, the average Nasdaq tech stock dropped 39% from December 31st to now.

[Brian4Liberty]

Dow Falls 1,100 Points, Stock Market Selloff Continues As Major Retailers Warn Of Rising Cost Pressures

[oyarde]

That is a lot of money coming out of the Dow and Crypto so far with none going back in to silver or gold . That is a lot of people sitting on cash. Needless to say I'm a little concerned they dont understand that cash is nowhere to be, already worth less tomorrow than on Monday. Going to be worth less next month and the next month .

[sam1952]

That is a lot of money coming out of the Dow and Crypto so far with none going back in to silver or gold . That is a lot of people sitting on cash. Needless to say I'm a little concerned they dont understand that cash is nowhere to be, already worth less tomorrow than on Monday. Going to be worth less next month and the next month .

How true. Same can be said for my gold and silver. My condo in Florida (real estate) is next to be hit. Is there any safe haven? Scary times I fear are coming.

[Madison320]

Dow Falls 1,100 Points, Stock Market Selloff Continues As Major Retailers Warn Of Rising Cost Pressures

I keep reading articles from "experts" saying that the Fed's inflation fight is going to cause pain in the markets and the economy, BUT that it probably won't cause a recession. Are you kidding me? If the Fed keeps hiking rates and stops printing we're going to get a lot more than just a recession. It's going to be a depression along with a financial crisis much worse than 2008.

It's basic math. Printing and borrowing is cumulative. You can't get free stuff for 12 years and then expect there to be no downside. Like I've said a million times if that were true every country would be rich, we could all stay home and just print our way to prosperity.

[Snowball]

That is a lot of money coming out of the Dow and Crypto so far with none going back in to silver or gold . That is a lot of people sitting on cash. Needless to say I'm a little concerned they dont understand that cash is nowhere to be, already worth less tomorrow than on Monday. Going to be worth less next month and the next month .

Not always. The dollar, even during our lifetimes, has its periods of strength and safe haven. The Fed has pulled out all the stimulus, and the rates are rising both in the bond market and in the Fed basis point hikes.

It is not a bad time to stay in cash at all. The general population has not even started to understand how the housing market is going to retract. There is still a contrived shortage of housing -- but that will end by the early autumn, increasing in severity all winter, because almost everyone is complacently not believing that values can fall. They are greedy and lazy. That paid off for them, so they are slow to react, and to believe the easy money is really over.

These people will all start to sell together, most at the wrong time. There is no real shortage of housing at all. It's just that nobody is selling yet - (except for the most savvy).

[Brian4Liberty]

...

It's basic math. Printing and borrowing is cumulative. You can't get free stuff for 12 years and then expect there to be no downside. Like I've said a million times if that were true every country would be rich, we could all stay home and just print our way to prosperity.

Pretty sure that is essentially the plan of the progressives and their modern monetary policy.

[oyarde]

Not always. The dollar, even during our lifetimes, has its periods of strength and safe haven. The Fed has pulled out all the stimulus, and the rates are rising both in the bond market and in the Fed basis point hikes.

It is not a bad time to stay in cash at all. The general population has not even started to understand how the housing market is going to retract. There is still a contrived shortage of housing -- but that will end by the early autumn, increasing in severity all winter, because almost everyone is complacently not believing that values can fall. They are greedy and lazy. That paid off for them, so they are slow to react, and to believe the easy money is really over.

These people will all start to sell together, most at the wrong time. There is no real shortage of housing at all. It's just that nobody is selling yet - (except for the most savvy).

I dunno , inflation is still out of control and shows no sign of subsiding, also the money coming out of bitcoin and the dow this week isnt going into the housing market is my guess. So the cash is going to go to gold , back to bitcoin or be lost to inflation .

[Krugminator2]

Eight straight down weeks for the Dow. Only other 8 down was 1923. 7 straight for S&P. Only modern instances of 7 down were 1980 and 2001. That was the exact bottom of 1980 and then went up 35% or so. 2001 had 6% more down before rally over 20%.

It takes time to wring this type of sentiment out. But the amount of fund managers holding cash, sentiment surveys, the rate Wall Street is cutting analyst estimates, consumer confidence, fund manager surveys of the economy are all at levels about as extreme as they get.

The market is pricing in a zillion rate hikes. The 2 and 10 year yield curve is close to inverting. The 3 month and 10 year has a lot more room. Is the Fed really going to intentionally invert the yield curve. Are they going to intentionally cause a recession. It seems like a distinct possibility is this is all jawboning from the Fed and they are going to surprise by stopping hikes pretty quick in the cycle.

[Madison320]

Eight straight down weeks for the Dow. Only other 8 down was 1923. 7 straight for S&P. Only modern instances of 7 down were 1980 and 2001. That was the exact bottom of 1980 and then went up 35% or so. 2001 had 6% more down before rally over 20%.

It takes time to wring this type of sentiment out. But the amount of fund managers holding cash, sentiment surveys, the rate Wall Street is cutting analyst estimates, consumer confidence, fund manager surveys of the economy are all at levels about as extreme as they get.

The market is pricing in a zillion rate hikes. The 2 and 10 year yield curve is close to inverting. The 3 month and 10 year has a lot more room. Is the Fed really going to intentionally invert the yield curve. Are they going to intentionally cause a recession. It seems like a distinct possibility is this is all jawboning from the Fed and they are going to surprise by stopping hikes pretty quick in the cycle.

It's not "sentiment" it's fundamentals. The markets went up from easy money and has to go down when you remove the easy money.

But I agree that the Fed is going to reverse course sooner than everyone thinks. I'm guessing 2 more .5 rate hikes is about as far as they can go unless they start doing more QE.

[Brian4Liberty]

Dow is on pace for longest weekly losing streak since 1923

New York (CNN Business)The stock market selloff has left the Dow Jones Industrial Average on track for its longest weekly losing streak in nearly a century.

After opening the day higher, the Dow (INDU) turned negative and was down about 270 points, or 0.9%, in recent trading. The Dow is off by nearly 4% so far this week.
If the Dow finishes down for the week, which it is solidly on pace to do, it would be its eighth-straight weekly loss. That would be the longest weekly losing streak since 1923, according to FactSet data reviewed by LPL Financial.

[Brian4Liberty]

Just a prediction on my part. We shall see...

[Edit]

Full disclosure, I am long stocks, and did not sell.

...

The sell-off is a bit faster and deeper than I expected. Kind of wish I had liquidated. Usually I would say that this sentiment is an indicator that we are nearing a relative bottom, but with the price of gasoline negatively effecting the entire economy, a severe recession is almost inevitable now.

Thank you Joe Biden and your green agenda controllers. We will all be riding bicycles before they are done.

[Brian4Liberty]

Target posts a stunning drop in profit. Stock plunges

New York (CNN Business)Target's earnings didn't hit the mark. Far from it.

The retail giant reported a stunning 52% drop in profit for the first quarter, badly missing Wall Street's forecasts. The company blamed higher expenses due to continued supply chain disruptions. Consumers also are holding back on nonessential purchases because of rampant inflation.

[Brian4Liberty]

They can make it worse, too...

https://twitter.com/cvpayne/status/1527667297917317123

[oyarde]

Fauci keeping monkees now I take it .