Page 1 of 4 123 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 30 of 111

Thread: Stock Market Collapse Starts Tomorrow

  1. #1

    Stock Market Collapse Starts Tomorrow

    Just a prediction on my part. We shall see...

    [Edit]

    Full disclosure, I am long stocks, and did not sell.

    Quote Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty View Post
    As am I. Yet I have rode out more than one very long down turn in the past. Depends upon your timeframe. Short term traders and amateurs take (lock in) big losses sometimes.
    Basis for the prediction:

    Quote Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty View Post
    Well, it looks like Powell didn't surprise anybody today. With I Bond rates jumping to 9.62% a couple of days ago, I thought there was the possibility of a 75 basis points hike by the Fed, which would have been a surprise. The Fed says they will be tapering their bonds, which theoretically should increase yields on the open market. The question is when will the trickle of increasing fixed rate returns start to have an effect on stocks?
    Update:

    Last edited by Brian4Liberty; 05-06-2022 at 10:44 AM.
    "Foreign aid is taking money from the poor people of a rich country, and giving it to the rich people of a poor country." - Ron Paul
    "Beware the Military-Industrial-Financial-Pharma-Corporate-Internet-Media-Government Complex." - B4L update of General Dwight D. Eisenhower
    "Debt is the drug, Wall St. Banksters are the dealers, and politicians are the addicts." - B4L
    "Totally free immigration? I've never taken that position. I believe in national sovereignty." - Ron Paul

    Proponent of real science.
    The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own, and do not represent this forum or any other entities or persons.



  2. Remove this section of ads by registering.
  3. #2
    1. Biggest mutual fund outflows since 2008 a couple of weeks ago.
    2. AAII sentiment survey has bearish sentiment only matched by 1990 and 2008
    3. There are so many extremes in bonds this year that have no precedent even going back to the Great Depression. The TLT is the farthest under that 200 day moving average by double the runner up
    4. Mutual funds are holding cash at historically high levels
    5. The equity, total and index put call ratios have had spikes that would usually put a floor under things for the intermediate term
    6. The 1 month and 3 month VIX has inverted a couple of times in the last week. Usually when that happens, stocks calm down and it is close to a bottom.

    . Buying the close before a Fed day and selling just before the announcement has a bullish bias. If the market were to sell off 4 or 5% tomorrow on the Fed announcement, it would likely be a short term event before a 10-20% rally. The beginning of a crash is very unlikely given sentiment but monetary policy might trump everything. Anything is possible

    All that said I am very long stocks and also bought some bonds for a rally as well. Will sell a lot of the market is up in the morning and hold the rest for a couple of months. If the market drops in the morning I will just hold for a month or so.


    Either way I strongly think the market goes up. The dollar has been on a huge run and been the strongest currency in the world. If the dollar weakens, that's good for stocks. Bonds have been obliterated. If bonds have a rally, that's good for stocks. The way gold has sold off, very possible inflation has peaked. Also good for stocks.\

    The world probably is going to hell. I just suspect, stocks will rally to suck people back in before it does go to hell. We'll see.

  4. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by Krugminator2 View Post
    All that said I am very long stocks and also bought some bonds for a rally as well.
    As am I. Yet I have rode out more than one very long down turn in the past. Depends upon your timeframe. Short term traders and amateurs take (lock in) big losses sometimes.
    "Foreign aid is taking money from the poor people of a rich country, and giving it to the rich people of a poor country." - Ron Paul
    "Beware the Military-Industrial-Financial-Pharma-Corporate-Internet-Media-Government Complex." - B4L update of General Dwight D. Eisenhower
    "Debt is the drug, Wall St. Banksters are the dealers, and politicians are the addicts." - B4L
    "Totally free immigration? I've never taken that position. I believe in national sovereignty." - Ron Paul

    Proponent of real science.
    The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own, and do not represent this forum or any other entities or persons.

  5. #4
    I always expect those in October. Especially during election years, when it seems any amount of money will be printed in an attempt to keep the bubble until election day.
    "Stupidity got us into this mess. Why can't it get us out?"--Will Rogers

    "All I know is what I read in the newspapers, and that's an alibi for my ignorance."--Will Rogers

  6. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty View Post
    As am I. Yet I have rode out more than one very long down turn in the past. Depends upon your timeframe. Short term traders and amateurs take (lock in) big losses sometimes.

    This is such an extreme outlier year for the market and monetary policy trumps everything. All the sentiment stuff trying to catch ripples doesn't work well when the big wave is down and I have slammed my fingers in the car door some this year but....

    I would not rule out markets having some sort of crazy melt up based on how negative EVERYONE is. I subscribe to website that has smart money/dumb money gauge that uses a number of inputs like commercial hedgers and spits out a number. Dumb money confidence is 15% right now. It got down to 12% during the coronacrash and was 12% during that market meltdown at the end of 2018. It was 13% just after in 2001 after 9/11. Smart money is not as bullish as dumb money is bearish but I think there is enough lined up.

    Ultimately I think this ends horribly. But bull markets die in euphoria and there hasn't been much euphoria for a while.

  7. #6
    not sure i can see inflation peaking yet , there will be less goods available now from china . There is a lot of cash out there to chase whatever is left . govt reported a 2 1/2 percent miss on gdp while saying inflation is still over 6 1/2. peasants are spending not saving , savings rate down a lot I see no reason now to think the inflation wont still be this hot when people realize its been a recession for six months. we are in new territory . too many FRN's. Fed raising half point isnt going to stop any inflation that I see.
    Last edited by oyarde; 05-04-2022 at 06:53 AM.
    Do something Danke

  8. #7
    What I don't get is that Gold is sitting at 1900-ish with inflation, FED hikes coming, Ukraine, sanctions, Another potential lockdown in China, Supply Chain backlog, the Great Resignation, Reduction in the balance sheet, Oil above $100/brl. You'd think Gold would be near or over 2K?

    We're being governed ruled by a geriatric Alzheimer patient/puppet whose strings are being pulled by an elitist oligarchy who believe they can manage the world... imagine the utter maniacal, sociopathic hubris!

  9. #8
    All because of Trump, Musk, and Putin, soon to be referred to by the acronym TMP.



  10. Remove this section of ads by registering.
  11. #9
    2k is about the current price to buy a one ounce gold eagle , paper spot price 1870 , dealer cost 3.7 percent above that , retail at least 3 percent over that , but yes , i see your point. 52 week range on dow 32,283 to 36,952. yesterdays low 32914. dow futures up 51 nas futures up 12
    Last edited by oyarde; 05-04-2022 at 07:26 AM.
    Do something Danke

  12. #10
    private payrolls rise only 247k in april , missing expectations.
    Do something Danke

  13. #11
    oil 107
    Do something Danke

  14. #12
    Natural gas $8.36 MMBtu
    "Nobody wins in a Dairy Challenge" ~ Kenny Rogers, RIP


    "When a man who is honestly mistaken hears the truth, he will either quit being mistaken, or cease to be honest." ~ anonymous


    “The fate of all mankind I see
    Is in the hands of fools” ~ King Crimson

  15. #13








    Similar situation to spring of 2020. Big difference is Fed is doing the opposite. Probably won't get the big bull market out of this but should get a big rally.

  16. #14
    Wednesday's main event lies with the Fed, which is slated to release its latest policy decision at 2 p.m. ET followed by a press conference at 2:30 p.m. with Chairman Jerome Powell.
    https://markets.businessinsider.com/...-powell-2022-5
    "Foreign aid is taking money from the poor people of a rich country, and giving it to the rich people of a poor country." - Ron Paul
    "Beware the Military-Industrial-Financial-Pharma-Corporate-Internet-Media-Government Complex." - B4L update of General Dwight D. Eisenhower
    "Debt is the drug, Wall St. Banksters are the dealers, and politicians are the addicts." - B4L
    "Totally free immigration? I've never taken that position. I believe in national sovereignty." - Ron Paul

    Proponent of real science.
    The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own, and do not represent this forum or any other entities or persons.

  17. #15
    ya , i'm almost surprised they didnt wait until the end of the day fri
    Do something Danke

  18. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty View Post
    Well, it looks like Powell didn't surprise anybody today. With I Bond rates jumping to 9.62% a couple of days ago, I thought there was the possibility of a 75 basis points hike by the Fed, which would have been a surprise. The Fed says they will be tapering their bonds, which theoretically should increase yields on the open market. The question is when will the trickle of increasing fixed rate returns start to have an effect on stocks?
    "Foreign aid is taking money from the poor people of a rich country, and giving it to the rich people of a poor country." - Ron Paul
    "Beware the Military-Industrial-Financial-Pharma-Corporate-Internet-Media-Government Complex." - B4L update of General Dwight D. Eisenhower
    "Debt is the drug, Wall St. Banksters are the dealers, and politicians are the addicts." - B4L
    "Totally free immigration? I've never taken that position. I believe in national sovereignty." - Ron Paul

    Proponent of real science.
    The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own, and do not represent this forum or any other entities or persons.



  19. Remove this section of ads by registering.
  20. #17
    Stonks always go up on days Powell opens his mouth for a widely distributed FOMC announcement. There are very rare exceptions but it's pretty much a rule. PPT/NYFed trading desk workin' really hard lately. There's also a large imbalance between SPX puts and calls for expiry today (way more puts betting market tanked) so naturally whatever $#@!s the most options holders tends to be what happens, since markets are completely rigged. Everyone forgets that the CARES Act handed the ESF (PPT) $500 billion to move markets however they want and market makers just route orders off the lit exchange and into their dark pools to kill momentum (up or down) whenever they want to. IMO don't look for any real collapse to start until the usual Sept/Oct (autumn equinox 9-22-22) period.
    Last edited by devil21; 05-20-2022 at 01:19 PM.
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul

    "We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book

  21. #18
    Pretty well time for everyone to admit they got screwed by the fed for waiting 14 months of rampant inflation before making a move while also still adding to the balance sheets. I'll stick with my prediction all yr that this half point changes nothing . Gasoline here up today 30 cents , diesel 40 cents
    Last edited by oyarde; 05-05-2022 at 07:13 PM.
    Do something Danke

  22. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by oyarde View Post
    Pretty well time for everyone to admit they got screwed by the fed for waiting 14 months of rampant inflation before making a move while also still adding to the balance sheets. I'll stick with my prediction all yr that this half point changes nothing . Gasoline here up today 30 cents.
    Did you get in on a new I bond?
    "Foreign aid is taking money from the poor people of a rich country, and giving it to the rich people of a poor country." - Ron Paul
    "Beware the Military-Industrial-Financial-Pharma-Corporate-Internet-Media-Government Complex." - B4L update of General Dwight D. Eisenhower
    "Debt is the drug, Wall St. Banksters are the dealers, and politicians are the addicts." - B4L
    "Totally free immigration? I've never taken that position. I believe in national sovereignty." - Ron Paul

    Proponent of real science.
    The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own, and do not represent this forum or any other entities or persons.

  23. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty View Post
    Did you get in on a new I bond?
    lol , no , pretty sure i wont be needing a bond in 30 years.
    Do something Danke

  24. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty View Post
    Just a prediction on my part. We shall see...
    Looks like you were off by one day.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/04/stoc...lose-news.html
    "And now that the legislators and do-gooders have so futilely inflicted so many systems upon society, may they finally end where they should have begun: May they reject all systems, and try liberty; for liberty is an acknowledgment of faith in God and His works." - Bastiat

    "It is difficult to free fools from the chains they revere." - Voltaire

  25. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by devil21 View Post
    Stonks always go up on days Powell opens his mouth for a widely distributed FOMC announcement. There are very rare exceptions but it's pretty much a rule. PPT/NYFed trading desk workin' really hard lately. There's also a large imbalance between SPX puts and calls for expiry today (way more puts betting market tanked) so naturally whatever $#@!s the most options holders tends to be what happens, since markets are completely rigged. Everyone forgets that the CARES Act handed the ESF (PPT) $500 billion to move markets however they want and market makers just route orders off the lit exchange and into their dark pools to kill momentum (up or down) whenever they want to. IMO don't look for any real collapse to start until the usual Sept/Oct period.
    The market rally simultaneous with Powell’s press conference does make you wonder...

    Quote Originally Posted by CaptUSA View Post
    Looks like you were off by one day.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/04/stoc...lose-news.html
    Not pretty today.
    "Foreign aid is taking money from the poor people of a rich country, and giving it to the rich people of a poor country." - Ron Paul
    "Beware the Military-Industrial-Financial-Pharma-Corporate-Internet-Media-Government Complex." - B4L update of General Dwight D. Eisenhower
    "Debt is the drug, Wall St. Banksters are the dealers, and politicians are the addicts." - B4L
    "Totally free immigration? I've never taken that position. I believe in national sovereignty." - Ron Paul

    Proponent of real science.
    The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own, and do not represent this forum or any other entities or persons.

  26. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by oyarde View Post
    lol , no , pretty sure i wont be needing a bond in 30 years.
    You can cash them out with no penalty after 5 years. After 1 year with a 3 month penalty.

    Essentially a 5 year bond at 9.62%.
    "Foreign aid is taking money from the poor people of a rich country, and giving it to the rich people of a poor country." - Ron Paul
    "Beware the Military-Industrial-Financial-Pharma-Corporate-Internet-Media-Government Complex." - B4L update of General Dwight D. Eisenhower
    "Debt is the drug, Wall St. Banksters are the dealers, and politicians are the addicts." - B4L
    "Totally free immigration? I've never taken that position. I believe in national sovereignty." - Ron Paul

    Proponent of real science.
    The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own, and do not represent this forum or any other entities or persons.

  27. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty View Post
    Well, it looks like Powell didn't surprise anybody today. With I Bond rates jumping to 9.62% a couple of days ago, I thought there was the possibility of a 75 basis points hike by the Fed, which would have been a surprise. The Fed says they will be tapering their bonds, which theoretically should increase yields on the open market. The question is when will the trickle of increasing fixed rate returns start to have an effect on stocks?
    Interesting commentary on the business channels today. "We expected a 75 basis point increase, and because Powell didn't do it, we are doomed." And bond purchase tapering by the Fed won't happen until late in the year.

    Other headlines: "Stocks Plummet as Bond Yields Spike"
    "Foreign aid is taking money from the poor people of a rich country, and giving it to the rich people of a poor country." - Ron Paul
    "Beware the Military-Industrial-Financial-Pharma-Corporate-Internet-Media-Government Complex." - B4L update of General Dwight D. Eisenhower
    "Debt is the drug, Wall St. Banksters are the dealers, and politicians are the addicts." - B4L
    "Totally free immigration? I've never taken that position. I believe in national sovereignty." - Ron Paul

    Proponent of real science.
    The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own, and do not represent this forum or any other entities or persons.



  28. Remove this section of ads by registering.
  29. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty View Post
    You can cash them out with no penalty after 5 years. After 1 year with a 3 month penalty.

    Essentially a 5 year bond at 9.62%.
    i saw that , probably selling the hell out of those
    Do something Danke

  30. #26
    looks like the stagflation fix is getting closer to being locked in .
    Do something Danke

  31. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty View Post
    Interesting commentary on the business channels today. "We expected a 75 basis point increase, and because Powell didn't do it, we are doomed." And bond purchase tapering by the Fed won't happen until late in the year.

    Other headlines: "Stocks Plummet as Bond Yields Spike"
    Give it another 6 months of no QE and a few more rate hikes and let's see what happens. The Fed has barely moved from all time record easy policy. QE had been neutral for a month and they hiked to .75. That's microscopic.

  32. #28




    Market easily could drop 5%-10% more and anything is possible. This could always be different but these tend to be the times of most opporunity.


    But few gain sufficient experience in Wall Street to command success until they reach that period of life in which they have one foot in the grave. When this time comes these old veterans of the Street usually spend long intervals of repose at their comfortable homes, and in times of panic, which recur sometimes oftener than once a year, these old fellows will be seen in Wall Street, hobbling down on their canes to their brokers’ offices. Then they always buy good stocks to the extent of their bank balances, which have been permitted to accumulate for just such an emergency.

    The panic usually rages until enough of these cash purchases of stock is made to afford a big “rake in.” When the panic has spent its force, these old fellows, who have been resting judiciously on their oars in expectation of the inevitable event, which usually returns with the regularity of the seasons, quickly realize, deposit their profits with their bankers, or the overplus thereof, after purchasing more real estate that is on the up grade, for permanent investment, and retire for another season to the quietude of their splendid homes and the bosoms of their happy families.
    Good advice in 1888 and held up in 2020. Probably good advice now.
    Last edited by Krugminator2; 05-05-2022 at 02:56 PM.

  33. #29
    I read Drudge during times like this. I have noticed he has made market moves his centerpiece headline at least 3 times recently including today.

    Because of its reach to the masses, we view financial headlines on Drudge as a contrarian indicator. When financial stories dominate the front-page headlines on a regular basis, we’re probably getting close to an inflection point for the market, whether it’s a bottom or a top. When a large number of negative financial headlines are showing up on Drudge on a regular basis, it suggests that excess negativity is probably priced into the market.
    Drudge Headline Indicator Highs and Lows

    https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/b-i-g-tips-drudge-headline-indicator/

  34. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty View Post
    The market rally simultaneous with Powell’s press conference does make you wonder...
    It doesn't make me wonder at all. My GME-related research has essentially confirmed how the markets are rigged. Citadel, for example, routes orders to their dark pool at the press of a button. Doing that means the dark pool routed order flow never registers on the lit market indexes. It's like the orders never happened, from an index price or single symbol movement perspective. Then, the NYFed trading desk (biggest whale in existence) dips into the ESF and uses the taxpayer money in it to buy huge chunks of index futures and whatever else is on the menu. Of course those purchases are routed to the lit markets, which signals everyone else's algos to follow suit. It's how you get ridiculous ramps like yesterday. On the other hand, the NYFed has to sell those purchases back into the market (they don't engage in buy and hold generally, except for 13(3) SPV and QE/MBS stuff, only plunge protection measures, perception games and FOMC policy) which exasperates market reactions like today as they sell yesterday's ramp back into the markets. It's really quite simple though it happens at the speed of light.
    Last edited by devil21; 05-05-2022 at 05:37 PM.
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul

    "We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book

Page 1 of 4 123 ... LastLast


Similar Threads

  1. Ron Paul: US Stock Market About to Collapse
    By DamianTV in forum Economy & Markets
    Replies: 3
    Last Post: 06-21-2015, 05:25 PM
  2. Is the Stock Market Near Collapse?
    By Smaulgld in forum Economy & Markets
    Replies: 45
    Last Post: 07-25-2014, 02:59 PM
  3. Stock Market Collapse: More Goldman Market Rigging?
    By bobbyw24 in forum Economy & Markets
    Replies: 2
    Last Post: 05-10-2010, 04:54 AM
  4. Will the stock market crash tomorrow?
    By parke in forum Grassroots Central
    Replies: 19
    Last Post: 10-12-2008, 10:06 PM
  5. Stock Market Will Eventually Collapse - Ron Paul
    By ButchHowdy in forum Grassroots Central
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 08-29-2007, 04:52 PM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •