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Thread: Evergrande is Lehman 2.0?

  1. #1

    Evergrande is Lehman 2.0?

    Lehman collapsed under $60 billion of bad loans and derivatives on Sept 15 2008. Evergrande is $300 billion deep in bad loans and derivatives (probably 5x that figure....some sources saying 20x higher or more when accounting for derivatives chained together). Sounds about right adjusted for inflation and today will be 13 years to the day of Lehman's collapse. Who are the big players with lots of exposure to Evergrande this time around?

    It also reminds me more than a little of Enron.

    Markets looking nervous! Might be an interesting day today.


    (15th also start of Yom Kippur. "Fresh start" observance.)

    eta: 9-20-21 another .cn developer crashing - Sinic 2301.HK
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chine...080415576.html
    Last edited by devil21; 09-20-2021 at 11:33 AM.
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul

    "We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book



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  3. #2
    Whole world is bearish right now and next week is statistically the worst week of the year. Market looks like death heading into the weekend.

    The Six Largest Wall Street Banks Issue Market Red Alerts https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/si...ket-red-alerts


    Merrill Warns Huge Fall in S&P 500 is Imminent https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/merrill-RBC joins chorus of banks predicting a sharp pullback in stocks - but says it'll be a buying opportunitwarns-huge-fall-in-sp-500-is-imminent-2021-08-16

    RBC joins chorus of banks predicting a sharp pullback in stocks - but says it'll be a buying opportunity https://markets.businessinsider.com/...ngs-rbc-2021-9



    This is the most bullish I have been in some time. On a scale of 1 to 10. I am an 11 on the bullish scale. Not quite pocket aces. Maybe pocket kings with this set up in the market.

  4. #3
    Dow still sitting at 34585 . Quite amazing really .Still up 24 percent this yr
    Last edited by oyarde; 09-17-2021 at 06:47 PM.
    Do something Danke

  5. #4
    Just a scan of the financial news sites, might need a few more down days to spark a panic and then get a big rally. Not seeing a whole lot of negativity yet in the media.

  6. #5

  7. #6
    dp
    Last edited by devil21; 09-18-2021 at 10:09 AM.
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul

    "We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book

  8. #7
    I'm just waiting for Cramer to tell us monday that Evergrande is fine!


    Quote Originally Posted by enhanced_deficit View Post
    $300B debt...
    too big to fail... sounds familiar.

    I thought of Lehman episode also when saw the Evergrande news earlier.
    It also has hints of Enron, meaning that the infrastructure was built out on the backs of investors and then once that was completed it's revealed to be a big fraud and collapses. Very soon after, the assets built are picked up for pennies on the dollar by the mega-banks and RE funds, while investors get stiffed. Doesn't matter since the infrastructure was built and is in place. That's the game in a nutshell.
    Last edited by devil21; 09-18-2021 at 06:35 PM.
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul

    "We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book

  9. #8
    https://www.fuw.ch/article/china-is-...to-hit-a-wall/

    And how are such ghost towns financed?
    There is probably no company that is more representative of the investment bubble than Evergrande. It’s the biggest pyramid scheme the world has yet seen. Evergrande is highly leveraged and has like 270 projects all over the country (d21: as of 2017). I have been easily to 40 of them yet I have only seen one that was fully occupied. Many of these projects are megalomaniac visions and totally empty. Yet you go to these places and you see their sales room filled with young buyers. When I open my eyes I see crumbling stone and empty jungles or deserts. What they see is a future with wealthy Europeanized people strolling on modern paths. It’s just amazing. It’s a mass illusion and Evergrande more than any of these developers plays to this illusion by building developments that are specifically positioned for the investor, not to live there but to buy for some future appreciation in price.
    Whole thing worth a read, though it doesn't focus on Evergrande.


    (Methinks the nonsensical Evergreen/Evergiven incident was a tip-off to what was being engineered)
    Last edited by devil21; 09-18-2021 at 07:36 PM.
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul

    "We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book



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  11. #9
    What American firms are exposed to this?

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mark...cid=uxbndlbing

    Some economists have warned that the collapse of Evergrande could become China's "Lehman moment" – a reference to the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers as a result of the subprime mortgage crisis, which triggered the 2008 global financial crisis.

    However, Capital Economics' Simon MacAdam described that narrative as "wide of the mark."

    Dow Futures
    34,179.00
    -283.00(-0.82%)
    Last edited by Pauls' Revere; 09-19-2021 at 08:53 PM.

    We're being governed ruled by a geriatric Alzheimer patient/puppet whose strings are being pulled by an elitist oligarchy who believe they can manage the world... imagine the utter maniacal, sociopathic hubris!

  12. #10
    ____________

    An Agorist Primer ~ Samuel Edward Konkin III (free PDF download)

    The End of All Evil ~ Jeremy Locke (free PDF download)

  13. #11
    Note that Evergrande's Hang Sang stock symbols are 3333.HK and 6666.HK. Also note the Evergreen incident where the boat drew a giant GPS track penis right before it grounded itself. Hmm, 3333, penis/phallus symbolism, and Evergreens. Who could that have been a signal to? Perhaps people who worship the number 33 and Osiris' penis, pyramids (schemes) and are known as celebrants of evergreen trees (druids...Hollywood, black magic...look it up)?



    If the symbolism of that incident is extrapolated further, perhaps we can predict that Deutsche Bank will finally collapse under this. Perhaps I'm reading too far at this point but note the aerial pictures of Evergreen's grounding.





    Naaa crazy talk. Probably all coincidence.
    Last edited by devil21; 09-21-2021 at 08:41 AM.
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul

    "We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book

  14. #12
    Yesterday, Cramer gave his Evergrande is fine! speech on Mad Money....now two days of market rips.
    Last edited by devil21; 09-23-2021 at 12:02 PM.
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul

    "We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book

  15. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by devil21 View Post
    Lehman collapsed under $60 billion of bad loans and derivatives on Sept 15 2008. Evergrande is $300 billion deep in bad loans and derivatives (probably 5x that figure....some sources saying 20x higher or more when accounting for derivatives chained together). Sounds about right adjusted for inflation and today will be 13 years to the day of Lehman's collapse. Who are the big players with lots of exposure to Evergrande this time around?

    It also reminds me more than a little of Enron.

    Markets looking nervous! Might be an interesting day today.


    (15th also start of Yom Kippur. "Fresh start" observance.)

    eta: 9-20-21 another .cn developer crashing - Sinic 2301.HK
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chine...080415576.html
    Evergrande files for US bankruptcy protection as China economic fears mount

    HONG KONG/NEW YORK, Aug 18 (Reuters) - Embattled developer China Evergrande Group (3333.HK) has filed for U.S. bankruptcy protection as part of one of the world's biggest debt restructurings, as anxiety grows over China's worsening property crisis and its impact on the weakening economy.

    China unexpectedly lowered several key interest rates earlier this week in a bid to shore up struggling activity and is expected to cut prime loan rates on Monday, but analysts say moves so far have been too little, too late, with much more forceful measures needed to stem the economy's downward spiral.

    Once China's top-selling developer, Evergrande has become the poster child of an unprecedented debt crisis in the country's property sector, which accounts for roughly a quarter of the economy, after facing a liquidity crunch in mid-2021.

    The developer has sought protection under Chapter 15 of the U.S. bankruptcy code, which shields non-U.S. companies that are undergoing restructurings from creditors that hope to sue them or tie up assets in the United States.
    ...
    DOMINO EFFECT?

    The property crisis has also fanned worries about contagion risks to the financial system, which could have a destabilising impact on an economy already weakened by tepid domestic and foreign demand, faltering factory activity and rising unemployment.

    A major Chinese asset manager has missed repayment obligations on some investment products and warned of a liquidity crisis, while Country Garden (2007.HK), the country's No.1 private developer, has become the latest to flag a stifling cash crunch.
    ...
    More: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/...ul-2023-08-18/
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  16. #14
    Glad to say I have zero interest/bucks in the 25 percent of the chicom economy that is in property
    Do something Danke



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