We just blew thru the 31 trillion mark on the national debt. Yay!Originally Posted by oyarde
debt up about 450 percent since year 2000 (5.8 trillion to 31 ) while the gdp is up about 40 percent since then ( avg of 1.9 percent per year and going down). So thats a failed state that isnt coming back from the cliff edge . You cant run a successful country increasing debt like that
Last edited by oyarde; 10-06-2022 at 12:11 PM.
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I'm starting to think that the best way out is to partially default on the debt.
When you loan money to somebody you assume a certain amount of risk of default. Why should it be different when you loan it to the govt?
After the default it would be much harder for the US govt to borrow money, and that's a good thing.
Another jumbo rate hike coming from fed next month.
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Bottom 90 percent of US saw debt increases of 300 billion ( 110 million houseolds).in past yr .New record.
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Russia declares facebook meta a terror group. Rumors are Alaska will cancel crab season.
Last edited by oyarde; 10-11-2022 at 06:19 PM.
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US producer price inflation reported at 8.5 percent . That is horribly high for wholesale. Should be plenty of third world inflation still around for Nov elections. Fresh veggies up 15.7 percent and rising .Enjoy. Dow up 137 on this great news.
Last edited by oyarde; 10-12-2022 at 10:06 AM.
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Americas six largest banks are putting back 4 1/2 billion to be used to cover expected loan losses in Q3. 2022 second quarter saw deliinquent loans ( 30 to 89 days past due )rise 11.4 billion ( 25 percent ) over same period yr prior.
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inflation hot , hot , hot .New number from information bureau still over 8 and up about a half point from the month prior.Dow at risk for 27k soon.
Last edited by oyarde; 10-13-2022 at 08:09 AM.
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The next shock will be wintertime, the first one since natural gas prices have increased by 50% year-to-date.
yeah, that's what I use. yay.
bank of america estimates inflation to last a decade.
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At this point there is no reason to expect any growth until summer of 2024 at least also no reason to expect much improvement in inflation.
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Just saw a headline that says "Budget deficit shrank to 1.37 trillion in fiscal 2022."
First of all "shrank to 1.37 trillion" sounds kinda funny.
Second the actual deficit, which is the amount we borrowed, was 2.5 trillion. They don't count a lot of spending when then calculate the deficit. So we just borrowed 2.5 trillion and that was before the effects of the coming crash have been felt. I'm betting we borrow 4 trillion in FY2023.
US Federal tax revenue for fiscal yr 2021 was about four trillion ( 4.047), an all time high so figure roughly they are adding another 61 percent in debt over that this past fiscal yr.
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I expect tax revenue to collapse over the next couple years as the recession deepens.
Well at least until the Fed pivots ... then we'll have a spike up in a lot of things.
Projections are nearly a 30 percent increase so far in billing.
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I'm thinking next yr we could see double digit interest for home loans
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You might be right, but gov. will intervene.
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/b...090000513.html
There are two kinds of people, those who own houses and those that don't.
The Creature from Jekyll Island:
We're being governed ruled by a geriatric Alzheimer patient/puppet whose strings are being pulled by an elitist oligarchy who believe they can manage the world... imagine the utter maniacal, sociopathic hubris!
I think pretty much every economist in that article said we could never have higher inflation, the only thing we had to worry about is deflation. So they don't have much credibility.
But anyway I totally agree, the Fed/Govt is going to intervene at some point. Ultimately they'll intervene to prevent the US govt from defaulting on it's debt. But I think they'll intervene before that to prevent bank failures or some other crisis.
Years of third world inflation are not free . The toll weighs heavy . Americas personal savings rate has fallen this quarter from last to the eigth lowest quarter in 75 yrs ( 1947) fallen from 3.4 percent of income to 3.3 percent of income which is dismal of course. Lowest level since the great obama - biden recession. Adjusted for inflation savings are down 88 percent from the 2020 peak and 61 percent lower than pre plague. Credit card debt up 13 percent this yr , the largest annual increase in twenty years . In case you are not aware the country is in much worse shape than 20 years ago by an amount that is staggering. Americans ability to pay bills on time has fell for the first time in five yrs. The ghost of printing past will be with you for some time.
Last edited by oyarde; 10-28-2022 at 10:17 AM.
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Global markets down 28 trillion this yr. What will next yr bring ?
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After 1 1/2 yrs of runaway third world inflation americans celebrate by buying stocks. CPI comes in at 7.7 percent with higher food and fuel removed , Dow up 1201
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U.K. economy shrunk by .2 percent in Jul and Aug with wide spread reductions in mnfg . Bank of England still expecting an 8 quarter recession , stagflation , no growth and high inflation.
Last edited by oyarde; 11-14-2022 at 03:07 PM.
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Amazon layoffs rumored ( ny times) to start with 10K employees and could start this week , meta - facebook layoffs will be 11K or 13 percent of its workforce.
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That shows you how desperate the markets are for the fed to pivot to easy monetary policy.
US household debt climbs at fastest annual rate last quarter since 2008 even though interest rates charged to consumers climbed to highest in several decades
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Inflation in UK reaches 11.1 percent , last time that high was 41 years ago.
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Japanese Inflation At Forty-Year High
https://www.thefinancialtrends.com/2...rty-year-high/
Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.
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Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it
A Zero Hedge comment
Sales at brick and mortar stores after Thanksgiving were below pre plague numbers and down from last yr as well. General foot traffic down by more than ten percent from 2019, retail sales down 5 percent from last year and 9 percent from 2019. I see no reason not to expect inflation will continue this negative trend through next yr as well .
Last edited by oyarde; 12-06-2022 at 08:17 PM.
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