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Thread: CPI jumps 5% in May of 2021, fastest since 2008

  1. #781
    Quote Originally Posted by Occam's Banana View Post
    That take is why the Fed was so slow to deal with inflation and why they've now overtightened. The headline number is for the trailing 12 months so inflation won't look as bad when it flares up and will look worse even after it is beaten.

    M2 has had it biggest percentage decline ever. From page 232-233 of my copy of Money Mischief by Milton Friedman

    4. It takes time (measured in years, not months) for inflation to develop; it takes time for inflation to be cured

    5. Unpleasant side effects of the cure are unavoidable. The United State has embarked on raising its monetary growth five times between 1960 and 1990. Each time the higher monetary growth has followed first by economic expansion and later by inflation. Each time the authorities have slowed monetary growth to stem inflation. Lower monetary growth has been followed by a recession.
    The Fed has done its job. But they went too far and historically you get a recession out of this. The 3 month and 10 year yield curve inverted October of 2022. The average lead time for recession is 18 months which would put a recession first qtr of 2024, but it can be multiple years as was the case in 2008. Worrying about inflation right now doesn't mean there will be less inflation long term. It probably does mean there will be an even bigger recession and more government stimulus and more Fed easing instead. I think we will look back on this and wish the Fed stopped tightening last year.



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  3. #782
    Quote Originally Posted by Krugminator2 View Post
    I think we will look back on this and wish the Fed stopped tightening last year.
    But of course we will. America didn't need a middle class anyway.

    The only thing I can't figure out is what the Fed was allegedly tightening? Certainly not Zelinsky's belt. Not their own, either.

  4. #783
    Quote Originally Posted by Krugminator2 View Post
    The Fed has done its job.
    Or course it has. When has it ever not?


  5. #784
    Quote Originally Posted by Occam's Banana View Post
    Or course it has. When has it ever not?


    I know that is some sort of snarky response. I honestly don't know what you are getting at. Could you tell me? Are you saying they should continue to tighten so we get an even more severe downturn?



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  7. #785
    Quote Originally Posted by Krugminator2 View Post
    I know that is some sort of snarky response. I honestly don't know what you are getting at. Could you tell me? Are you saying they should continue to tighten so we get an even more severe downturn?
    Why ask me? They're the "experts".

    They should just do whatever they think best.

    Otherwise, what is even the point of them?

  8. #786
    Quote Originally Posted by Occam's Banana View Post
    Why ask me? They're the "experts".

    They should just do whatever they think best.
    But are they the experts? The yield curve is the best predictor of recession. Their own website using market signals and not their "expert" opinions says this is the highest probability of recession since 1981, yet they are talking about their base case is no recession. https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibr...s/Prob_Rec.pdf

    Otherwise, what is even the point of them?
    I would say no point. I have seen no evidence that human judgment is a better predictor than markets. I would say they shouldn't exist. There should be a rules based system whether it is a gold standard or Taylor Rule or Friedman rule or nominal GDP targeting.
    Last edited by Krugminator2; 09-14-2023 at 12:01 PM.

  9. #787
    if the fed hasnt proven how useless they are now they never will
    Do something Danke

  10. #788
    Rising Gas Prices Driving Inflation Higher


    https://www.thefinancialtrends.com/2...lation-higher/
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  11. #789
    August Retail Sales Strengthen As Gasoline Prices Soar


    https://www.thefinancialtrends.com/2...e-prices-soar/
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  12. #790
    Credit card losses at highest level since last great financial crises , moving near 4 percent , up 1 1/2 percent from 2021. Expected to rise another percent in next 1 1/2 years
    Do something Danke

  13. #791
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  14. #792
    https://twitter.com/profstonge/statu...66299530035595



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  16. #793
    Quote Originally Posted by Occam's Banana View Post
    https://twitter.com/profstonge/statu...66299530035595
    https://twitter.com/JoeConsorti/stat...08934551371840

  17. #794
    Quote Originally Posted by oyarde View Post
    Credit card losses at highest level since last great financial crises , moving near 4 percent , up 1 1/2 percent from 2021. Expected to rise another percent in next 1 1/2 years
    It'll be a lot more than 1% now that student loan payments have kicked back in.

    On "inflation", which I'm convinced is just Wall St fixing prices high to suck money from Main St at this point, not any monetary function anymore, meat prices have gone full retard. $10 for a few chicken breasts?!?! $22 for a very small ham?? Crazy times. Late night dumpster diving for pitched out unsold products sounds more appealing by the day.
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul

    "We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book

  18. #795
    Spending Power In The US Falls In New Survey


    https://www.thefinancialtrends.com/2...in-new-survey/
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  19. #796
    From the guy who did the original academic work on the Yield Curve.

    1. Inflation is over. Fed should probably cut next meeting if anything. Fed still using backward metrics for shelter that use data from a 12 months ago
    2. He used the 2 yr and 10 year yield curve and average recession time would put a recession starting December or early next year. (Note: The 3 month and 10 yr is the more predictive yield curve and it inverted in Oct. Avg recession is 18 months later.)
    3. The inverted Yield curve has forecasted 8 out of 8 recessions. No false positives.


  20. #797
    wholesale inflation rises 2.2 percent in sept , fastest pace since april , wholesale energy up 3.3 percent aug to sept
    Do something Danke

  21. #798
    inflation up almost a half percent from month prior . official govt core number 4.1 percent , other 3.7 percent. rent , fuel . energy , hotels , new vehicles , auto ins , meat , poultry , fish and eggs still rising. using that math inflation year prior to last and 4.1 percent would mean roughly 12 percent from 2021 to now . seems a little low if you buy groceries but dow is up 65 points. by govt numbers inflation pretty well unchanged since collins started this thread ( 5.0 to 4.1) , fed expecting three more yrs before improvement
    Last edited by oyarde; 10-18-2023 at 06:35 AM.
    Do something Danke

  22. #799
    mortgage defaults rise to highest level since 2009 in UK
    Do something Danke

  23. #800
    Quote Originally Posted by Krugminator2 View Post
    From the guy who did the original academic work on the Yield Curve.

    1. Inflation is over. Fed should probably cut next meeting if anything. Fed still using backward metrics for shelter that use data from a 12 months ago
    2. He used the 2 yr and 10 year yield curve and average recession time would put a recession starting December or early next year. (Note: The 3 month and 10 yr is the more predictive yield curve and it inverted in Oct. Avg recession is 18 months later.)
    3. The inverted Yield curve has forecasted 8 out of 8 recessions. No false positives.

    They have to cut rates to keep interest payments on the debt from rising. It's going to be the biggest budget line item in a year or two.

    When that happens my guess is that commodities are going to explode.



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  25. #801
    according to fed minutes , fed economists are expecting inflation to be improved by 2026. So the optimists there are just expecting a half decade of third world.By then debt will be 50 trillion and half the tax revenue will be interest on debt
    Do something Danke

  26. #802

  27. #803
    cant tell if it is cramer , krugman , biden or bagdad bob , all the same
    Do something Danke

  28. #804
    Quote Originally Posted by Occam's Banana View Post
    Using Krugman's logic every country can become wealthy by printing.

    I'm expecting a huge surge in commodity prices at some point. The Fed's balance sheet went from 1 to 8 trillion since 2008. The math says commodity prices should be 8 times what they were in 2008. At some point reality is going to hit us.

  29. #805
    US Adds Half Trillion To National Debt In 20 Days


    https://www.thefinancialtrends.com/2...bt-in-20-days/
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  30. #806
    retail sales more than double estimated increase for sept coming in nearly 3/4 of a percentage point increase , sporting goods unchanged , 9 of the other 12 categories up. slow down only electronic and appliance stores as well as clothing . retail and auto parts up over 1 percent to 3 percent. Chooglin '.
    Last edited by oyarde; 10-17-2023 at 06:06 PM.
    Do something Danke

  31. #807
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    US Adds Half Trillion To National Debt In 20 Days


    https://www.thefinancialtrends.com/2...bt-in-20-days/
    We need Trump to fix it ... wait ... he doubled spending ... never mind.

  32. #808



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  34. #809
    Quote Originally Posted by Madison320 View Post
    We need Trump to fix it ... wait ... he doubled spending ... never mind.
    Congress, not Trump.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  35. #810
    Quote Originally Posted by acptulsa View Post
    business insider current article says american needs to earn 115k per yr to afford typical home , up 50 percent from pre plague thats the type of inflation that really exists here in the failed republic of unlimited unbacked frn's. For those who are not good with math I'll mention that up 50 percent in three years is not 4 or 5 percent inflation.
    Last edited by oyarde; 10-18-2023 at 12:20 PM.
    Do something Danke

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