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Thread: CPI jumps 5% in May of 2021, fastest since 2008

  1. #691
    Inflation Cooling, But Still Hot In Some States

    https://www.thefinancialtrends.com/2...n-some-states/
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment



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  3. #692
    Ya , inflation isnt really cooling .When you have to remove 12 percent food inflation to get to around 6 1/2 that isnt good .
    Do something Danke

  4. #693
    Also it should be time to revise down 4th qtr gdp but it was probably lower than the revision will be.
    Do something Danke

  5. #694
    US Inflation Accelerated Again In January

    https://www.thefinancialtrends.com/2...in-in-january/
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  6. #695
    Pending home sales up 8.1 percent in Jan , largest increase since June 2020.
    Do something Danke

  7. #696
    manufacturing declining for fourth straight month, still too many worthless frn's going to be chasing too few goods bringing inflation.interest rates are going to be moving up , should slow housing but no sign of slowing anything else at this time .
    Do something Danke



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  9. #697
    US personal debt up 8 percent from Third qurter 2021 , Credit card debt up 14 percent from 2021 to 2022 and rising . Inflation still chooglin'
    Do something Danke

  10. #698
    High Inflation Will End Soon

    But the Fedís change in course heightens the risk of recession.

    We predicted two years ago that inflation would be persistent and rise to the highest levels in a generation. We were right when others werenít because we based our forecast on the quantity theory of money, which links asset prices, economic activity and inflation to changes in the money supply. Despite this weekís increase in monthly inflation, we now think inflation is knocking on deathís door and a recession may be on the way.
    The dramatic change in our predictions is due to the Fedís dramatic change in behavior. In March 2020, the central bank embarked on large-scale asset purchases, which immediately and dramatically accelerated broad money growth. In May 2020, the three-month annualized growth rate of the money supply, as measured by M2, reached 77.2%. By March 2022, M2 had increased by an unprecedented cumulative 41%. Even during the inflation crises of 1973-75 and 1980-82, the increase in money growth didnít approach what occurred in 2020-21.
    Inflation usually lags sustained changes in the money supply by 12 to 24 months. Sure enough, by April 2021, headline inflation had increased to 4.2% from 1.5% in March 2020. By March 2022, it was 8.5%.
    Given these data, we extended our forecast in the summer of 2022, writing that year-over-year inflation would end 2022 at 6% to 8% and would fall to 5% by the end of 2023. Excess money balances, which resulted from unbridled money growth in 2020-21, were some 20% greater in the second quarter of 2022 than the multidecade trend line for M2. We assumed that households and firms would spend these excess balances gradually until they hit ďnormal,Ē or on trend, and so inflation would persist.

    Instead, the Fed reversed course sharply and households and businesses quickly shed excess money. M2 peaked at $21,739.7 billion in March 2022, and since then has declined to $21,207.4 billion. In the past nine months, M2 has declined at an annualized rate of 3.2%. This flip from expansion to contraction is the steepest adjustment in money-supply growth in postwar U.S. history. Based on 2022ís fourth-quarter data, the excess money balances have already declined to only 11.8% greater than normal and that slight bump could dissipate entirely by mid-2023. In other words, weíre almost out of the inflation woods.


    https://www.wsj.com/articles/high-in...9a30?mod=e2two

  11. #699
    Quote Originally Posted by Krugminator2 View Post
    Yeah, but the fed's balance sheet drives m2.

    I looked up the fed's balance sheet vs m2 since 1960.

    Interestingly it was almost impossible to get the balance sheet before 2008 but I finally found it.

    Excuse the spacing

    balance M2 ratio
    1960 53 298 5.622641509
    1970 81 589 7.271604938
    1980 158 1482 9.379746835
    1990 310 3166 10.21290323
    2000 669 4666 6.974588939
    2010 2346 8458 3.605285592
    2020 4149 15401 3.71197879
    2023 8507 21267 2.499941225

    M2 was on average 8 times as high as the balance sheet from 1960 to 2000 (before QE).

    Now M2 is only 2.5 as high as the balance sheet.

    That means that M2 has to triple to catch up to the balance sheet.

    Therefore prices have a long way to go before they catch up to the fed's balance sheet and M2.

    If you're right that M2 is the best predictor of prices then prices will eventually triple.

  12. #700
    no real way to predict now , never before has there been so much cash sitting around with the wealthy while at the same time the median income guy is spending every dime he gets. no savings , just debt putting them in an awful position to weather a downturn.personally i dont see a good long term outcome for the american monetary system. if you think a frn is worthless now just imagine in another decade.
    Last edited by oyarde; 03-08-2023 at 07:41 AM.
    Do something Danke

  13. #701
    at this point it is kind of hard to believe the fed is still babbling about 2 percent inflation, i mean lets get serious about expectations , how bad would things have to be to get to that ? the govt could help by reducing regulation that stifles gdp but we also know that cant be expected .
    Do something Danke

  14. #702
    So I just heard on the Peter Schiff show that the federal reserve lost over 100 billion in february. That has to be paid by the us treasury. Where are they going to get the money? Eventually from the federal reserve when they have to start printing again. What a house of cards.

    Apparently this is the first time the fed has operated at a loss since 1915.

    They're losing almost 40 billion a week.

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RESPPLLOPNWW

  15. #703
    31 percent of new cars sold last month sold for more than sticker price . Chooglin'
    Do something Danke

  16. #704
    Once they strip out the third world double digit food inflation probably still be at three times the fed fantasy target
    Last edited by oyarde; 03-28-2023 at 09:06 PM.
    Do something Danke



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  18. #705
    All gonna be good.

  19. #706
    inflation in UK 10.4 percent , here Fed signals they have surrendered to the inflation they created and are signaling last 1/4 point hike is it.
    Do something Danke

  20. #707
    "
    US monetary policy has become too TIGHT – the Fed risks significantly UNDERSHOOTING it’s 2% inflation target"

    It is therefore time for the Fed to acknowledge that monetary conditions have become too tight.
    Another very important message is that the Fed should not become preoccupied with the distress in the banking sector. Rather, the Fed should do its job on monetary policy, and that job is to ensure nominal stability. If the Fed is doing that job well, then financial stability is automatically ensured as well.
    I also believe that this means that it is now most likely that the Fed will not hike its key policy rate at its upcoming FOMC meeting later this week. In fact, it is likely advisable to cut rates right now. That said, I would much rather that the Fed communicated a proper nominal GDP level target of 4 percent.
    Unfortunately, the Fed failed massively on the overly easy side in 2021-22, so it is now impossible to bring back NGDP to its pre-2020 4 percent trend without a massive US recession and global financial crisis.







    The Two Year Treasury is at 3.825% and the Fed Funds rate is 4.57%. https://marketmonetarist.com/2023/03...lation-target/

  21. #708
    Ya , doubtful we see 4 percent gdp. The govt has killed gdp , they could bring some back with massive deregulation but they wont in fact they will regulate more.
    Do something Danke

  22. #709
    Quote Originally Posted by oyarde View Post
    Ya , doubtful we see 4 percent gdp. The govt has killed gdp , they could bring some back with massive deregulation but they wont in fact they will regulate more.
    He's talking about nominal GDP, not real, which had been running over 10%. It has dropped to around 7%. He's saying the ideal would be to make 4% nominal as the target. Would keep inflation low and have macroeconomic stability.

  23. #710


    Smart person talking about monetary policy.

    Also


  24. #711
    With trump indictment he will surge to largest leads ever over desantis . Opening the way again for dem mail in victory since nothing substantial has changed . Should be some upside to gold , silver needs about a twenty percent increase in investors to move up into more realistic territory of course one more bank could do it . APMEX sold over 100 million in bullion the week following first bank failure. Inflation could remain fairly stable rest of yr , wouldnt expect much in the way of GDP , fed probably stops where it is. Seeing no upside to FRN's , energy prices likely to keep rising in future. Still an increbible amount of lower value FRNs sitting around out there doing nothing . Local coin shop 40 percent increase in sales in sixty days , Feb 01 trough Apr 01 over last years sixty day avg.
    Last edited by oyarde; 04-02-2023 at 07:22 AM.
    Do something Danke

  25. #712
    McDonalds Tells Corporate Staff To Stay Home This Week, And Watch Out For Layoff Emails

    https://www.thefinancialtrends.com/2...layoff-emails/
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment



  26. Remove this section of ads by registering.
  27. #713
    WTO Sees Food Prices At Risk Of Massive Spikes

    https://www.thefinancialtrends.com/2...assive-spikes/
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  28. #714
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  29. #715
    Oil May See A 2 Million Barrel Per Day Supply Shock

    https://www.thefinancialtrends.com/2...-supply-shock/
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  30. #716
    Food Costs In America Continue To Rise

    https://www.thefinancialtrends.com/2...tinue-to-rise/


    IEA Warns Over OPEC+ Cuts

    https://www.thefinancialtrends.com/2...ver-opec-cuts/


    In Argentina, Inflation Continues To Soar

    https://www.thefinancialtrends.com/2...inues-to-soar/
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  31. #717
    Ya the food inflation cant be stopped . Eating out up 9 1/2 percent , groceries up 8 1/2 percent. Costs of living in the third world with a $#@! currency. The working poor will have another tough winter coming
    Last edited by oyarde; 04-16-2023 at 02:00 PM.
    Do something Danke

  32. #718
    World May Face A Rice Shortage

    https://www.thefinancialtrends.com/2...rice-shortage/


    Argentina Raises Benchmark Rate To 81% As Inflation Roars

    https://www.thefinancialtrends.com/2...flation-roars/
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  33. #719
    Japanese Inflation Passes 40 Year High

    https://www.thefinancialtrends.com/2...-40-year-high/
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  34. #720
    Two of the tings that allowed even lower income Americans enjoy a higher standard of living in the recent past was cheap energy and the fact that they needed to spend much less of a percentage of income on food than other third world countries . Those advantages have began to evaporate quickly . Dont look for them to come back at this point.
    Do something Danke



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