Why lumber prices are so jacked:

[Matt Collins]

They "forgot" to mention the Federal Reserve's role in all of this:

[PAF]

Why lumber prices are so jacked:

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...ses-Threatened

[TheTexan]

I hope it keeps going up. Bought some calls last week

[tod evans]

Nobody mentioned tariffs.....

[TheCount]

Nobody mentioned tariffs.....

I'm not 100% certain on this but I think that the tariffs on Canadian lumber ended when Trump re-signed NAFTA.

[Brian4Liberty]

They "forgot" to mention the Federal Reserve's role in all of this:

LOL. They tried to say that too much timber is the cause. Who do they think they are fooling?

They did start with the real cause, which is increased demand for finished lumber. They hinted at another problem, which is consolidation of the lumber industry which has limited competition, thus the middle men are acting as oligopolies and extracting maximum profit.

[Brian4Liberty]

Nobody mentioned tariffs.....

That may apply on imports.

But as far as demand for lumber, they didn't mention exports. You are competing with China for lumber, and they may have control of some of the lumber companies.

To their credit, they did mention that COVID created excess demand so that all of these restaurants can build temporary outside structures to comply with mandates. Blame government there. They didn't mention how many businesses in cities have had to purchase lumber to ward off rioters and looters (or the aftermath). Blame government again, for zero enforcement on those crimes.

[oyarde]

Once I start consuming the supply of timber in firewood and for smoke signals @Danke will have to build his next hut on the prairie of Nutria skins imported from the Bayou.

[Todd]

Holding off on all the projects I wanted to do this year. Maybe next year.

[Anti Federalist]

Had timber on my land that I had been eyeing for harvest since 2003.

Had it cleared in Feb.

Tidy profit made.

[phill4paul]

Prices on all construction materials are through the roof. Was going to put new flooring on porch. Decided just to flip, sand and stain. Will have to have a dozen boards cut to size (not typical decking measurement) but a local mill can do that for me.

[tod evans]

I'm not 100% certain on this but I think that the tariffs on Canadian lumber ended when Trump re-signed NAFTA.

On April 24, 2017, U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said his agency will impose new anti-subsidy tariffs averaging 20 percent on Canadian softwood lumber imports, a move that escalates a long-running trade dispute between the two countries.


[edit]

Commerce Department Cuts Lumber Tariffs from 20% to 9%

[tod evans]

That may apply on imports.

But as far as demand for lumber, they didn't mention exports. You are competing with China for lumber, and they may have control of some of the lumber companies.

To their credit, they did mention that COVID created excess demand so that all of these restaurants can build temporary outside structures to comply with mandates. Blame government there. They didn't mention how many businesses in cities have had to purchase lumber to ward off rioters and looters (or the aftermath). Blame government again, for zero enforcement on those crimes.

Softwood is a different market than hardwood.

I buy hardwood and finish grade plywood wholesale and have for decades, they're up but up in line with cost of living.

"Baltic Birch" is a commodity that I keep up on because I buy quite a bit of it, it's a Russian import, it's up about $1.25 per sheet from last summer whereas OSB made domestically is almost triple. (I don't buy OSB wholesale)

The tariffs did more to increase the cost of Baltic Birch than anything over the last several decades.

Domestic hardwood is still pretty stable and so are South American and African hardwoods.

From my vantage point it looks like GP, Weyerhaeuser and the like are milking covid for every red cent they can...

Good thing is the Maw-n-Paw bandsaw mills can make money at these prices selling for cash.

[pcosmar]

Sort of like Coal,, much being sold offshore.

But the mills are getting busy..

[Brian4Liberty]

...
From my vantage point it looks like GP, Weyerhaeuser and the like are milking covid for every red cent they can...
...

No doubt. Oligopoly and elimination of competition allows that.

[tod evans]

[Brian4Liberty]

Did the boys from Enron get jobs in the lumber industry?

[Brian4Liberty]

Lumber Prices Soar, But Logs Are Still Dirt Cheap

(Bloomberg) -- Lumber prices have soared to records. Demand for wood is skyrocketing. The shares of wood suppliers are surging.

And yet, trees themselves are dirt cheap in places like Louisiana, where timber supplies are plentiful.

The so-called stumpage fee, or what lumber companies pay to land owners for trees, for Louisiana pine sawtimber on March 31 was $22.75 per short ton, according to the latest data from price provider TimberMart-South. That’s the lowest since 2011.

An abundance of harvest-ready trees has kept stumpage fees extremely low across the U.S. South, home to half of the country’s production. Meanwhile, lumber futures are up 85% in 2021 because of soaring demand. Sawmills profit from the premium lumber commands over the stumpage fee -- think of it like the lumber crack spread.

Those margins are exploding. The spread between futures and stumpage for Louisiana pine, for example, has more than doubled just this year, topping $1,100 per 1,000 board feet.

In Alabama, the stumpage fees are slightly higher than Louisiana at $23.34 per short ton. But they’ve barely budged since 2016 and are half the price fetched in 2005.

In the futures market, lumber touched a record $1,326.70 per 1,000 board feet on Monday.

That sent the spread between futures and the Louisiana stumpage fee higher than $1,144 per 1,000 board feet on Monday, based on a calculation that assumes 8 short tons of logs per 1,000 board feet.
...
More: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lumbe...100000412.html

[enhanced_deficit]

Soaring lumber prices add $36,000 to the cost of a new home, and a fierce land grab is only making it worse

Published Fri, Apr 30 2021
Key Points

• The surge in lumber prices in the past year has added $35,872 to the price of an average new single-family home and $12,966 to the market value of an average new multifamily home, according to the NAHB.
• “We have seen, over the last four or five months, what I have never seen in my career before, is lumber to move to the level it has,” said Sheryl Palmer, CEO of Taylor Morrison Home.
• New lot supply is down 20% from a year ago, according to Zonda.

cnbc.com/2021/04/30/soaring-lumber-prices-add-36000-to-the-cost-of-a-new-home.html

[Swordsmyth]

One of the most important things we've learned over the past year is the vulnerability of global supply chains. Most notably, supply disruptions of lumber have catapulted prices to the moon.

The narrative touted in the public domain is that COVID-19 sparked a dramatic underestimate in capacity by sawmills early in the pandemic as the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates to zero, sparking a housing boom. The influx of demand outpaced supply and has caused lumber prices to jump 340% from a year ago, according to Random Lengths.

In terms of output, the lumber industry is controlled by just a handful of firms, including Weyerhaeuser Co., Georgia-Pacific LLC, West Fraser Timber Co., Ltd., among others, which makes it easier for capacity to be controlled.

Maybe there's more to the lumber story that we're not being told and should be investigated more in-depth by journalists.

YouTube account "Ken's Karpentry" recently published a video of "huge quantities" of lumber sitting and not in lumberyards. The exact location of the video is not mentioned but could be near Lyndonville, Vermont.

The narrator in the video, perhaps it's Ken, but we're not sure, explains that a train depot has been transformed into a makeshift lumber yard. He said train loads of lumber coming out of Canada are offloaded here and then transported by tractor-trailer to lumberyards across the country.

He said, "I am astounded by how much lumber is here, and I am wondering why there is such a problem at lumber yards." He added the facility stretches 3/8 of a mile.

The video has more than 300,000 views and over 1,300 comments in just a few weeks.

One person said, "Gee, could it be to keep the price gouging and profits up?? This whole excuse that "it's due to covid" b*llsh!t has got to stop!"

"It's too bad there are no investigative reporters left in the world. This lumber story needs to be investigated and exposed," some else said.

Another person said:

"This is what happens when a few companies own the entire market."

And this person makes an interesting point:

"There is no lumber shortage. It's just Weyerhouse and GP wanting to drive up profits."

So could the lumber industry, controlled just by a few players, be pulling the playbook straight out of the diamond industry to limit supply to drive up prices?

https://www.zerohedge.com/commoditie...r-just-stacked

[Working Poor]

I just recently put up a nwe 10x10 deck. I paid almost twice as much for lumber to build a 10x10 deck than I did to build a 20x 15 deck....I built 20x15 deck 2 years ago.

[pcosmar]

I don't suppose that it could be all the Stimulus Money that was printed made the dollar worthless.

that is just "Crazy Talk".

[tod evans]

15 BILLION board feet of softwood must be harvested due to last years fires. (2 min in if you don't want to watch the video.)

[Matt Collins]

[Anti Federalist]

Lumber Prices Soar, But Logs Are Still Dirt Cheap

[TheTexan]

Reported for violating site guidelines against pornographic material

[Danke]

Reported for violating site guidelines against pornographic material

won’t matter. I have reported you many times, and you are still here.

[tod evans]

[oyarde]

When Obama was in office fuel prices doubled then so did a lb of bacon which never went down when fuel did so I surmise these are the new lumber prices .

[Danke]

I already got one.