Why has the US deficit gone up 1 trillion but the total debt is unchanged?

[Madison320]

I'm always watching the debt and usually the delta in total debt is 30-40% higher than the deficit. For example if the deficit for the year is 1 trillion the total debt will go up by 1.4 trillion. From what I understand this is because of some creative accounting where they don't count certain types of spending, they call it "off-budget".

But for Jan-Mar our deficits have added up to over a trillion (600+ billion in March!) but our total debt has stayed at 28 trillion. I heard that they are reducing the amount of reserve cash in the treasury by a trillion so maybe that's the reason? Anyway if that's the case that means that borrowing is going to ramp way up after they run out of excess cash.

Deficits:
https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-...s/current.html


Total Debt:
https://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/...tothepenny.htm

[oyarde]

Consider that tax revenue collected and owed would be grossly down for the past 13 months and the extra 5 trillion in bills passed and being worked on I'm just assuming debt at 33 to 34 trillion by the next bill passage and this years deficit with the ( guessing ) 200 trillion in unfunded liabilities we can call it 233. So if you want to guess GDP at 20 by the end of 2024 the debt should be twice that and 200.

[oyarde]

Powell just said today the debt is no problem , interest near zero through 2023 inflation 2 percent , easy peasy . Enjoy the good times .

[oyarde]

When in doubt I just buy a 2 1/2 gold Indian and put on muh 1978 Cars , Let The Good Times Roll.

[devil21]

I haven't looked into it closely but have suspected that lately fed.gov is running on fumes and is essentially in hand-to-mouth, paycheck-to-paycheck funding mode. New babies recently born and securitized via birth certificates (then immediately monetized via FED QE $120B/month) are, along with tax time receipts, the basis for stimulus and other spending bills. There isn't much cash in reserve and they're spending it as soon as it is freshly monetized and collected. That's my theory. Fed.gov is running on fumes.

(Btw, it was only a few years ago that the debt total was "frozen" repeatedly while fed.gov funding issues were being worked out. May be happening again but without the media coverage this time.)

[TheTexan]

Powell just said today the debt is no problem , interest near zero through 2023 inflation 2 percent , easy peasy . Enjoy the good times .

Just gonna sit back, and relax while stock market keeps going up up up

[Madison320]

I haven't looked into it closely but have suspected that lately fed.gov is running on fumes and is essentially in hand-to-mouth, paycheck-to-paycheck funding mode. New babies recently born and securitized via birth certificates (then immediately monetized via FED QE $120B/month) are, along with tax time receipts, the basis for stimulus and other spending bills. There isn't much cash in reserve and they're spending it as soon as it is freshly monetized and collected. That's my theory. Fed.gov is running on fumes.

(Btw, it was only a few years ago that the debt total was "frozen" repeatedly while fed.gov funding issues were being worked out. May be happening again but without the media coverage this time.)

I read in several places that Yellen was reducing some cash fund from 1.6 trillion down to .5 trillion a few months ago. The article said the .5 trillion is actually the norm so it's not a like it's a big deal. So I'm guessing that 1 trillion is the reason we're not seeing the debt going up, yet.

[Madison320]

Consider that tax revenue collected and owed would be grossly down for the past 13 months and the extra 5 trillion in bills passed and being worked on I'm just assuming debt at 33 to 34 trillion by the next bill passage and this years deficit with the ( guessing ) 200 trillion in unfunded liabilities we can call it 233. So if you want to guess GDP at 20 by the end of 2024 the debt should be twice that and 200.

Total debt went up from about 23T to 28T in CY 2020. I'm guessing it'll do the same in 2021 which means we'll be at around 33 trillion by december. I invest for inflation so bring on the spending! The dumber the government gets the more I make.

[Madison320]

The total US debt just went up 100 billion over the weekend. I'm guessing they ran out of cash reserves and are having to borrow again. If I'm right we could see a big spike in interest rates.

[oyarde]

Total debt went up from about 23T to 28T in CY 2020. I'm guessing it'll do the same in 2021 which means we'll be at around 33 trillion by december. I invest for inflation so bring on the spending! The dumber the government gets the more I make.

I'm thinking maybe 36 trillion by 2023.

[Madison320]

I'm thinking maybe 36 trillion by 2023.

That move up seemed to be a false alarm. Total debt is still sitting just above 28 trillion. I did read that the cash reserves were supposed to run in June so maybe in a few weeks we'll see the total debt spiking up. Along with rates I'm guessing.

[Madison320]

Total debt is still at 28.3T. It still hasn't made a big move up. I read that Yellen says they need to lift the July 31st debt ceiling quickly because they only have a few weeks this time. Normally they can make it for something like 6 months. I think this is more evidence that they have been spending down their cash reserves, probably to avoid spiking up interest rates. Maybe they were hoping to get more spending passed before rates go up.