It seems everyone in the mainstream financial world thinks the Fed is going to hike rates sooner than expected due to inflation concerns.
How many times will they be wrong before they figure out the Fed is not going to raise rates? They're not going to raise rates they're going to ramp up QE! Just wait until the 10 year gets to 2-3% and the markets start crashing. When that happens the Fed is guaranteed to start buying all those treasuries.
On a slightly different topic I've noticed that the total debt has only gone up by about 200B in Jan and Feb, but the total deficit was about 500B. Normally it's the reverse, the delta in total debt is a lot higher than the deficit. This is usually because they fudge the spending by not counting stuff that is off budget.
I heard that Yellen is reducing some account from about 1.5 T to .5 T. So my guess is they are drawing down some sort of cash fund so that they don't need to borrow as much over the next couple months. If I'm right the total debt will start exploding after that. Also that means that the recent rises in rates would be a lot higher if Yellen wasn't suppressing borrowing. Does anyone know if I'm right about this?
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