Average age of an Empire

[Pauls' Revere]

https://www.times-standard.com/2017/...ar%20in%202026.

The average age of empires, according to a specialist on the subject, the late Sir John Bagot Glubb, is 250 years. After that, empires always die, often slowly but overwhelmingly from overreaching in the search for power.

The America of 1776 will reach its 250th year in 2026. Happy Fourth!

[XNavyNuke]

An issue with your thesis lies in Sir Glubb's definition.

The word ‘empire’, by association with the British Empire, is visualised by some people as an organisation consisting of a homecountry in Europe and ‘colonies’ in other continents. In this essay, the term ‘empire’ is used to signify a great power, often called today a superpower.

These United States did not assume superpower status until after WW1, and really not until WW2. In his listing of empires, he separates the Roman Republic from the Roman Empire even though they were contiguous. The same continuity can be seen pre- and post-British Empire, before and after Alexander's rise in Greece., etc.

Also, overreach it not the signature cause of empire dissolution.

But whereas the life histories of great nations show an unexpected uniformity, the nature of their falls depends largely on outside circumstances and thus shows a high degree of diversity.

Finally, in a country with rampant innumeracy I must point out that there is a difference between median and mean. History is littered with empires that lasted less than 200 years. In these United States, the republic's time has passed. Will the imperial phase last past 2026? Who knows. We take it day by day.

For those interested, the Fate of Empires essay is readily available online in PDF format.

XNN

[Pauls' Revere]

[sic]

But when we look at America’s foreign policy since World War II we should be most soberly gripped by a contradiction in thinking that could be leading us disastrously into the last hours of empire.

I am talking about the obsession among many of our foreign policy elites with spreading democracy across the world — and doing it more and more at the tip of a sword, with the shot of a rifle and the horrific destruction of a bomb.

This is no longer the Wilsonian ideal of “making the world safe for democracy” that sprang out of the bloody trenches of World War I. This is something new, a mind-set that sounds noble but is so deadly in practice that, contrary to what Americans are being led to believe, it is not only causing the massacre of foreigners but slowly and surely destroying democracy within America itself.

[Okie RP fan]

Empire or superpower?

I've seen both measured and I've seen both measured against the founding of the U.S. in 1776 vs. post WWI (but in most cases, WWII) status.

The conclusion, however, remains the same in every investigation I read: the U.S. is in decline, and a rapid one at that.

[PAF]

Empire or superpower?

I've seen both measured and I've seen both measured against the founding of the U.S. in 1776 vs. post WWI (but in most cases, WWII) status.

The conclusion, however, remains the same in every investigation I read: the U.S. is in decline, and a rapid one at that.

There is no "saving" a globalist corporatist regime. "Trying" only conditions the people for more infringements and loss of personal wealth. Perhaps the only way is to look at other avenues.

[XNavyNuke]

The conclusion, however, remains the same in every investigation I read: the U.S. is in decline, and a rapid one at that.

I think we check all the boxes.

The stages of the rise and fall of great nations seem to be:

The Age of Pioneers (outburst)
The Age of Conquests
The Age of Commerce
The Age of Affluence
The Age of Intellect
The Age of Decadence.

Decadence is marked by:
Defensiveness
Pessimism
Materialism
Frivolity
An influx of foreigners
The Welfare State
A weakening of religion.

Decadence is due to:
Too long a period of wealth and power
Selfishness
Love of money
The loss of a sense of duty.

XNN

[Okie RP fan]

There is no "saving" a globalist corporatist regime. "Trying" only conditions the people for more infringements and loss of personal wealth. Perhaps the only way is to look at other avenues.

It has to fail. Trying to save it is futile. Perhaps it can be remade from the ashes, although it may not be as large or strong as before, maybe it will be more pure once the follies are made known.

I think we check all the boxes.

XNN

Yes, we absolutely do. We are mirroring the fall of the Roman Empire quite eloquently.

[Anti Globalist]

So...our empire is coming to an end after all?

[Occam's Banana]

We are mirroring the fall of the Roman Empire quite eloquently.

No, not the fall of the empire, but the fall of the republic.

The parallels with the late Roman Republic are numerous and striking. Hell, now there's even a Lex Agraria tie-in, of all things - though I doubt that any senators are going to end up beating anyone to death over it ... (at least, not yet ...)

The Roman Empire, on the other hand, makes the modern United States look like a bunch of clownish and pathetic pikers.

Rome (as both republic and empire) endured for over a millennium. I'd be surprised if the U.S. lasts for even a third of that.

[Occam's Banana]

The Roman Empire, on the other hand [...]

It should also be noted that the effective partition of Rome into the Western and Eastern empires serves as yet another example of a significant political separation that did not require a "civil war" to bring about.

Rome (as both republic and empire) endured for over a millennium. I'd be surprised if the U.S. lasts for even a third of that.

And speaking of Byzantium, if one counts the eastern empire, Rome actually endured in some form for over two millennia - which makes the U.S. look even lamer in comparison (as of yet).

[Suzanimal]

No, not the fall of the empire, but the fall of the republic.

The parallels with the late Roman Republic are numerous and striking. Hell, now there's even a Lex Agraria tie-in, of all things - though I doubt that any senators are going to end up beating anyone to death over it ... (at least, not yet ...)

The Roman Empire, on the other hand, makes the modern United States look like a bunch of clownish and pathetic pikers.

Rome (as both republic and empire) endured for over a millennium. I'd be surprised if the U.S. lasts for even a third of that.

Dammit!

[Suzanimal]

No, not the fall of the empire, but the fall of the republic.

The parallels with the late Roman Republic are numerous and striking. Hell, now there's even a Lex Agraria tie-in, of all things - though I doubt that any senators are going to end up beating anyone to death over it ... (at least, not yet ...)

The Roman Empire, on the other hand, makes the modern United States look like a bunch of clownish and pathetic pikers.

Rome (as both republic and empire) endured for over a millennium. I'd be surprised if the U.S. lasts for even a third of that.

Dammit!

[cjm]

It should also be noted that the effective partition of Rome into the Western and Eastern empires serves as yet another example of a significant political separation that did not require a "civil war" to bring about..

Excellent reminder. This will be one of my primary 2021 "talking points" as I try to find my "50 righteous within the city" before the high sodium world kicks in.

[Occam's Banana]

[Okie RP fan]

The sad thing is that the American "empire" as we'll call it could have lasted for so much longer had it retained principled economics. Then again, would it have really been an empire in doing so?

There can be some relief when examining most empires do decay and die off to a great degree, but they will remain intact to an extent. But, usually in a much smaller form. That said, the breaking up of the U.S. will happen if we see it play out like other empires. Parts of it will be ceded to other countries or they'll create countries of their own.

U.S. territories will likely be handed back, etc.