Jo Jorgensen Beating the Polling Spread in 4 States; Each Voted for Trump in 2016

[jmdrake]

https://reason.com/2020/10/07/jo-jor...trump-in-2016/

I am in Tennessee where Trump has an unbeatable lead over Biden. If I wasn't in that situation.....well I'm not so I can do what I want without fear of consequences. I'm voting #jojorgenson2020. But if you are in a battleground state vote strategically.

[Anti Globalist]

I can do what I want without fear of consequences either. I have total confidence that Biden won't win Indiana.

[Anti Federalist]

https://reason.com/2020/10/07/jo-jor...trump-in-2016/

I am in Tennessee where Trump has an unbeatable lead over Biden. If I wasn't in that situation.....well I'm not so I can do what I want without fear of consequences. I'm voting #jojorgenson2020. But if you are in a battleground state vote strategically.

If the polling data is correct Biden will sweep TN.

That's the only way it makes sense, based the percentages they claim he has.

[jkob]

Polling data for minor 3rd party candidates is always inflated, last election there was a legitimate effort with serious candidates and they got maybe half or less of what they polled if that. 2020 the Green Party and Libertarian Party nominated anonymous party apparatchiks, pretty weird how that happens.

[Swordsmyth]

If you live in a Blue state vote for Trump, he will flip some blue states this time.

[Swordsmyth]

If the polling data is correct Biden will sweep TN.

That's the only way it makes sense, based the percentages they claim he has.

The polls are worse lies than usual this time, real polls show Trump taking all the battleground states and maybe some blue ones.

[Voluntarist]

Per registered decision, member has been banned for violating community standards as interpreted by TheTexan (respect his authoritah) as authorized by Brian4Liberty Ruling

May God have mercy on his atheist, police-hating, non-voting, anarchist soul.

[eleganz]

^ 538 is far from reliable.

The most accurate pollsters from 2016 are telling us Trump is doing far better than the MSM polls are saying.

Also, LP won't get the same amount of votes in 2016. Far less GOP'ers dislike Trump this time around. Hes consolidated his party while at the same time pissing off the other side. Both sides are more enthusiastic about voting compared to 4 years ago, Trump voters are more enthusiastic by double digits than Biden voters are.

LP and Green will both lose votes. Sorry to all the people that are crossing their fingers for a third party landslide victory.

[Anti Federalist]

The polls are worse lies than usual this time, real polls show Trump taking all the battleground states and maybe some blue ones.

I don't believe any of them anymore...but the national polls that have Biden over Trump by 16 points just don't make sense.

Reagan won in 1984 by 15 points, and won 48 states.

If you are up by 16 points, there are not enough PVs to swing 16 points in just a few blue states, it would have to be spread out across the country.

Which means that if you were in fact up 16 points, you'd have to win damn at least 45 states.

And I just cannot see Trump losing LA-TX-AL-MS-MT-MO-KY-TN-SC-AR-OK-ND-SD-UT-WY-ID-AK

Something stinks in this polling and goes beyond people trolling the pollsters.

[PAF]

If you live in a Blue state vote for Trump, he will flip some blue states this time.

Yes. You are right. I know a few hard-core democrats who say that trump is getting done what obama and other democrats failed to do. Trump is a very good democrat. His On The Record backs that up.

Though, I sometimes explain that trump is a Fascist more than he is a communist. But, deer in headlights, over their heads.

[ThePaleoLibertarian]

The possibility that Jo Jorgensen will get more votes than Gary Johnson is in the low single digits. I think we're entering into new levels of postmodernity where things that used to be at least fairly reliable like polls are now totally unreliable.

[Swordsmyth]

Yes. You are right. I know a few hard-core democrats who say that trump is getting done what obama and other democrats failed to do. Trump is a very good democrat. His On The Record backs that up.

Though, I sometimes explain that trump is a Fascist more than he is a communist. But, deer in headlights, over their heads.

[jmdrake]

If the polling data is correct Biden will sweep TN.

That's the only way it makes sense, based the percentages they claim he has.

What poll are you reading? Trump is up an average of 14 points in Tennessee.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iden-7006.html

There's no way in hell Biden wins Tennessee. No way in hell.

[georgiaboy]

Anybody else receiving text messages on their cell phones asking about voting preference? That's a brand new trend I've witnessed this election cycle. The question is always a simple binary, Trump or Biden, so third parties aren't being considered.

I know one of the big factors always discussed when it comes to poor polling is lack of land line telephones. With the text polling I'm receiving, makes me wonder what's in the new algorithm.

[Todd]

If you live in a Blue state vote for Trump, he will flip some blue states this time.

Where are you getting this data.

[Anti Globalist]

If you live in a Blue state vote for Trump, he will flip some blue states this time.

Which blue states do you think he has a chance of flipping? Surely not California and New York.

[Anti Federalist]

Which blue states do you think he has a chance of flipping? Surely not California and New York.

He might take NH.

The diff in 2016 was <3500 votes.

[phill4paul]

Not the polls I'm seeing. The polling averages that 538 put together for Tennessee show Trump leading 54.5% to Biden's 41.1%

Trump has problem areas with some states he carried in 2016 (5 states worth 86 evs):
Arizona (11 ev) is leaning towards Biden 48.7% to Trump's 44.8% ... Trump was up in 2016, but within margin of error
Florida (29 ev) is leaning towards Biden 49.0% to Trump's 44.6% ... Clinton was up in 2016, but within margin of error
Michigan (16 ev) is leaning towards Biden 50.3% to Trump's 43.1% ... Clinton was up 4% to 6% in 2016
Pennsylvania (20 ev) is leaning towards Biden 51.0% to Trump's 43.7% ... Clinton was up in 2016, but within margin of error
Wisconsin (10 ev) is leaning towards Biden 51.2% to Trump's 43.2% ... Clinton was up by 6% to 8% in 2016

There are a couple of other states Trump carried in 2016 that are leaning towards Biden (Iowa, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio) - but it's within margin of error ranges (kind of like 2016 was).

Yeah, N.C. will be interesting. Another state divided between the conservative rural community Vs. Progressive big cities.

[devil21]

Where are you getting this data.

Same place the rest of his information comes from.


I will make a bold prediction today. The election will be too close to call by election day.

There. Saved y'all all the suspense.

[Todd]

Which blue states do you think he has a chance of flipping? Surely not California and New York.

The only blue states Trump can flip are the ones he flipped last time. He is not going rogue in New England or the West.

If I called it right now, I'm saying that Biden wins this thing.

[familydog]

I can't believe we are still taking polls seriously. They over sample, under sample, make wrong assumptions and miss key demographics that decided the election four years ago.

And Jo will be lucky to win 2%.

[kahless]

I doubt Trump has much of a chance in NY. I may reconsider not voting and take a second look at voting LP to counter the two party paradigm. Even though there is allot discussed here not to like about her and the LP.

Maybe all this won't matter if whatever social upheaval comes and the country breaks up. Who knows perhaps that is a good thing considering how morally evil and bankrupt the establishment is in both parties, particularly the Democratic party. This includes their PR arm they call the news media which does not exclude some members of the Conservative media, conspiracy pundits, bloggers, etc. They all are where they are since they are ALL members of the elite cabal regardless the role they play on TV to fool the masses.

People talk about the rule of law and how great it is what we have now. It is all an illusion and I think the country is too far gone. There is no rule of law. Whether local, state or federal. It is complete and utter corruption run by a cabal of degenerate and evil elites all based on elite political alliances and power play politics among them - the enemy of the people. The US is like what the Soviet Union was in that respect. People that have not ended up on anyone's political radar just don't realize it since it does not effect them.

[69360]

He might take NH.

The diff in 2016 was <3500 votes.

I would bet more than 3500 massholes have moved north since then and will reliably vote democratic. We are in the middle of a mass migration of them here in Maine right now.

[Voluntarist]

Per registered decision, member has been banned for violating community standards as interpreted by TheTexan (respect his authoritah) as authorized by Brian4Liberty Ruling

May God have mercy on his atheist, police-hating, non-voting, anarchist soul.