India & Japan sign military PACT.

[Pauls' Revere]

Establishing a solid logistical supply chain between Japan and India. A must have if/when they have to engage with China.


https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2020/...peration-pact/

India and Japan signed a mutual logistics support arrangement (MLSA) on Wednesday, a pact allowing the two nations’ military forces to engage in mutual supply and service provision during joint exercises and operations, the Times of India (TOI) reported.

“The agreement establishes a framework such as the settlement procedures for the reciprocal provision of supplies and services between the Self-Defense Forces of Japan and the Indian armed forces,” a statement from the Japanese Foreign Ministry read. It further noted that the pact will ensure “smooth and prompt provision of supplies and services” between Indian and Japanese forces in a range of operations, according to the Hindustan Times.

Indian and Japanese forces will now supply one another with vital supplies and services — food, water, clothing, fuel, and transport, as well as medical, repair, and maintenance services — during training exercises, humanitarian relief, peacekeeping operations, and several other instances of joint military cooperation.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzo celebrated the agreement in a phone call on Thursday. The Japanese Foreign Ministry affirmed that the two countries would “continue to work closely in such areas as security, economy, and economic cooperation including the high-speed rail project,” the Hindustan Times reported.

The MLSA comes as both nations face rising tensions with their mutual neighbor China. Sino-Indian relations have deteriorated in recent months in the fallout over a lingering border dispute with China in the Himalayas. Japan, meanwhile, must contend with growing Chinese maritime aggression in the East China Sea and the Pacific Ocean. China claims sovereignty over Japan’s Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea, and established an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) there in 2013.

India and China have competing territorial claims on their border, though the parties have generally adhered to the mutually agreed Line of Actual Control (LAC). In June, however, Chinese military personnel established a camp on the Indian side of the LAC, prompting a scuffle between them and nearby Indian units. India acknowledged 20 deaths on its part and estimated the Chinese suffered more than double that figure in casualties. China has denied the Indian claim as “false information,” but still has not released an official number.

After the scuffle, India terminated the longstanding ban on firearms at the border. On Monday, live shots crossed the border for the first time in 45 years near Pangong Tso, a lake situated in the contested territory. Chinese officials accused Indian troops of illegally crossing the LAC and instigated the confrontation by firing into Chinese territory. Indian officials, however, asserted that it was in fact Chinese troops who fired into India.

In a Tuesday column, the Chinese state-run Global Times suggested preparing for a “new era of bloodshed” between the two countries.

[r3volution 3.0]

Given the geography, it's not really possible for China and India to go to war (outside goofy firefights between oxygen deprived soldiers in the mountains), barring nuclear weapons of course. If China and Japan were at war, India could offer nothing to Japan; if China and India were at war, Japan could offer almost nothing to India except a futile distraction (and wouldn't offer that anyway, given their total dependence on seaborne imports, which China could easily cut). China has a highly defensible position, despite being in the middle of a continent shared with other great power. Siberia, central Asia, the Himalayas, and the jungles in the south almost give them the same security as the US: Mexicans to the south, Canadians to the North, and fish on the other sides. The Himalayas and Siberia might as well be oceans; they're actually much less passable than oceans. This is perhaps why the concept "China" exists in the first place.

So I think John Mearsheimer is wrong about India balancing China, at least in a direct military sense.

Perhaps the Indians will screw with them indirectly in Burma and so forth, but Beijiing has no need to retain divisions in Tibet, for instance.

[Pauls' Revere]

Given the geography, it's not really possible for China and India to go to war (outside goofy firefights between oxygen deprived soldiers in the mountains), barring nuclear weapons of course. If China and Japan were at war, India could offer nothing to Japan; if China and India were at war, Japan could offer almost nothing to India except a futile distraction (and wouldn't offer that anyway, given their total dependence on seaborne imports, which China could easily cut). China has a highly defensible position, despite being in the middle of a continent shared with other great power. Siberia, central Asia, the Himalayas, and the jungles in the south almost give them the same security as the US: Mexicans to the south, Canadians to the North, and fish on the other sides. The Himalayas and Siberia might as well be oceans; they're actually much less passable than oceans. This is perhaps why the concept "China" exists in the first place.

So I think John Mearsheimer is wrong about India balancing China, at least in a direct military sense.

Perhaps the Indians will screw with them indirectly in Burma and so forth, but Beijiing has no need to retain divisions in Tibet, for instance.

Don't forget satellite intel, spy networks and possible covert ops. Maybe a Uyghur uprising?

Also, there is this;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ayni_A...Soviet%20Union.

Ayni Air Force Base, also known as Gissar Air Base, is a military air base in Tajikistan, just 10 km west of the capital Dushanbe.[1]

During the Cold War era, Ayni served as a major military base of the Soviet Union. However, following Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan, the base's infrastructure deteriorated significantly. Between 2002 and 2010, India spent nearly US$70 million to renovate the air base — the runway was extended to 3,200 meters and state-of-the-art navigational and air defense equipment were installed.[2][3] It was speculated by some media outlets that India was keen on establishing a military base in Ayni so as to gain a strategic foothold in Central Asia.[3]

[Swordsmyth]

India is also in the perfect position to cut off China's oil imports.

[r3volution 3.0]

Don't forget satellite intel, spy networks and possible covert ops. Maybe a Uyghur uprising?

Also, there is this;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ayni_A...Soviet%20Union.

Ayni Air Force Base, also known as Gissar Air Base, is a military air base in Tajikistan, just 10 km west of the capital Dushanbe.[1]

During the Cold War era, Ayni served as a major military base of the Soviet Union. However, following Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan, the base's infrastructure deteriorated significantly. Between 2002 and 2010, India spent nearly US$70 million to renovate the air base — the runway was extended to 3,200 meters and state-of-the-art navigational and air defense equipment were installed.[2][3] It was speculated by some media outlets that India was keen on establishing a military base in Ayni so as to gain a strategic foothold in Central Asia.[3]

From what I understand, Russia, China, and Iran have a pretty good lock on central Asia.

The Indians want to increase their influence in the region, but I'm not so sure they will.

India is also in the perfect position to cut off China's oil imports.

That's true. Their strategic priority is to secure their SLOCs and/or create secure overland trade routes (belt and road). The deal with Iran is a game-changer in this regard: not that the USN couldn't sink Iranian freighters heading east, but that's a lot riskier for the US (and therefore less likely) than just calling the Saudis and telling them to stop selling oil to China. Right now, in a hot war, the USN would destroy Chinese trade. In a cold war (as we seem to be entering), China's in a better and improving position.

[Pauls' Revere]

From what I understand, Russia, China, and Iran have a pretty good lock on central Asia.

The Indians want to increase their influence in the region, but I'm not so sure they will.



That's true. Their strategic priority is to secure their SLOCs and/or create secure overland trade routes (belt and road). The deal with Iran is a game-changer in this regard: not that the USN couldn't sink Iranian freighters heading east, but that's a lot riskier for the US (and therefore less likely) than just calling the Saudis and telling them to stop selling oil to China. Right now, in a hot war, the USN would destroy Chinese trade. In a cold war (as we seem to be entering), China's in a better and improving position.

Then there's Kazakhstan: I was unaware they had nuclear stockpiles and highly enriched uranium (HEU).


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kazakh...ates_relations

The United States was a critical player in assisting Kazakhstan to get rid of its strategic nuclear weapons stockpile and dismantle its nuclear weapons infrastructure between 1991 and 1996 through the provision of Nunn-Lugar Comprehensive Threat Reduction (CTR) assistance. In the time period between 1992 and 2008, cumulative CTR assistance to Kazakhstan has culminated to $341 million. At the "2012 Seoul Nuclear Security Summit" in March 2012, Presidents Obama and Nazarbayev reaffirmed bilateral cooperation in the areas of nuclear nonproliferation.

Highly Enriched Uranium Removals
The United States has been working with Kazakhstan to eliminate its excess Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) since the completion of Project Sapphire in 1994, when the two countries cooperated to remove and ship to the United States approximately 600 kilograms of HEU from Kazakhstan.[29] In recent years, the US Department of Energy / National Nuclear Security Administration (DOE/NNSA) Global Threat Reduction Initiative (GTRI) has returned almost 75 kilograms of HEU spent fuel to Russia and has downblended all remaining fresh HEU (33 kilograms) in-country. Once the final three research reactors are converted to LEU, (DOE/NNSA) will work with Kazakhstan to return the remaining 85 kg of HEU at these facilities to the Russian Federation for disposition. The next shipment will take place in late 2014 from the Institute of Nuclear Physics in Alatau.[29]

[r3volution 3.0]

Then there's Kazakhstan: I was unaware they had nuclear stockpiles and highly enriched uranium (HEU).


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kazakh...ates_relations

The United States was a critical player in assisting Kazakhstan to get rid of its strategic nuclear weapons stockpile and dismantle its nuclear weapons infrastructure between 1991 and 1996 through the provision of Nunn-Lugar Comprehensive Threat Reduction (CTR) assistance. In the time period between 1992 and 2008, cumulative CTR assistance to Kazakhstan has culminated to $341 million. At the "2012 Seoul Nuclear Security Summit" in March 2012, Presidents Obama and Nazarbayev reaffirmed bilateral cooperation in the areas of nuclear nonproliferation.

Highly Enriched Uranium Removals
The United States has been working with Kazakhstan to eliminate its excess Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) since the completion of Project Sapphire in 1994, when the two countries cooperated to remove and ship to the United States approximately 600 kilograms of HEU from Kazakhstan.[29] In recent years, the US Department of Energy / National Nuclear Security Administration (DOE/NNSA) Global Threat Reduction Initiative (GTRI) has returned almost 75 kilograms of HEU spent fuel to Russia and has downblended all remaining fresh HEU (33 kilograms) in-country. Once the final three research reactors are converted to LEU, (DOE/NNSA) will work with Kazakhstan to return the remaining 85 kg of HEU at these facilities to the Russian Federation for disposition. The next shipment will take place in late 2014 from the Institute of Nuclear Physics in Alatau.[29]

LOL, they sold cheap. On a somewhat related note, they have the second largest uranium reserves in the world and I hear that they can produce it more cheaply than others for some geological reason (which I don't understand). I guess we might be hearing about Kazakhstan in the news in coming years if uranium prices rise, which they are expected to do.

[Pauls' Revere]

LOL, they sold cheap. On a somewhat related note, they have the second largest uranium reserves in the world and I hear that they can produce it more cheaply than others for some geological reason (which I don't understand). I guess we might be hearing about Kazakhstan in the news in coming years if uranium prices rise, which they are expected to do.

Wow, Japan is more involved than I thought. Check this out.

https://thediplomat.com/2015/07/japa...-central-asia/

This benchmark deal with Turkmenistan is mirrored by Japan’s extension of its well-established nuclear energy cooperation initiatives with Kazakhstan to the oil and gas sector. Japanese Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Masayoshi Kamohara in a 2014 interview praised Japan’s long-standing ties to Kazakhstan dating back to the 1997 Silk Road project. He argued that Japanese linkages were a natural product of different comparative advantages: an exchange of Japanese human resources for Kazakhstan’s natural resources. Kazakhstan and Japan, by 2014, possessed 70 corporate joint ventures ranging from oil to uranium to green energy cooperation (as evidenced by the launch of the Toyota Fortuners production line).

The second major component of Japan’s Eurasia’s strategy is ensuring that the Russia-China dominated Shanghai Cooperation Organization does not monopolize access to warm water ports in the region. During a Turkmen diplomatic delegation visit to Japan from July 15 to July 17, 2015, Japan declared its interest in investing $2 billion in a new port in Turkmenbashi City. Japanese business elites have praised this project as the perfect confluence of Japanese technological know-how and Turkmenistan’s resource wealth.

[r3volution 3.0]

Wow, Japan is more involved than I thought. Check this out.

https://thediplomat.com/2015/07/japa...-central-asia/

This benchmark deal with Turkmenistan is mirrored by Japan’s extension of its well-established nuclear energy cooperation initiatives with Kazakhstan to the oil and gas sector. Japanese Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Masayoshi Kamohara in a 2014 interview praised Japan’s long-standing ties to Kazakhstan dating back to the 1997 Silk Road project. He argued that Japanese linkages were a natural product of different comparative advantages: an exchange of Japanese human resources for Kazakhstan’s natural resources. Kazakhstan and Japan, by 2014, possessed 70 corporate joint ventures ranging from oil to uranium to green energy cooperation (as evidenced by the launch of the Toyota Fortuners production line).

The second major component of Japan’s Eurasia’s strategy is ensuring that the Russia-China dominated Shanghai Cooperation Organization does not monopolize access to warm water ports in the region. During a Turkmen diplomatic delegation visit to Japan from July 15 to July 17, 2015, Japan declared its interest in investing $2 billion in a new port in Turkmenbashi City. Japanese business elites have praised this project as the perfect confluence of Japanese technological know-how and Turkmenistan’s resource wealth.

Japan is hedging its bets; recall how they acted during the latest shipping crisis in the Persian Gulf (went ahead with top level meeting).

Right now, they have access to places like Kazakhstan.

If the US-China/Russia cold war accelerates, and they side with the US...?

Like Europe or Australia, I think they're going to do their best to be ostentatiously neutral.

[Swordsmyth]

In a cold war (as we seem to be entering), China's in a better and improving position.

China is considering starting a hot war because they are about to collapse.

[r3volution 3.0]

China is considering starting a hot war because they are about to collapse.

Look at China's chronic current account surplus.

Then compare that to this country's chronic current account deficit (since, not coincidentally, circa 1971).

The US government, and thereby this whole country, lives at the expense of the rest of the world thanks to the dollar's special status.

That is coming to an end; the price of gold is telling you this.

China is sitting and waiting for the sick old man to die; they don't have to do a thing.

If there's to be a war, it will be started by said sick old man, in desperation, in one last futile attempt to make everyone else as weak as he is.

[Pauls' Revere]

Japan is hedging its bets; recall how they acted during the latest shipping crisis in the Persian Gulf (went ahead with top level meeting).

Right now, they have access to places like Kazakhstan.

If the US-China/Russia cold war accelerates, and they side with the US...?

Like Europe or Australia, I think they're going to do their best to be ostentatiously neutral.

Just imagine if our foreign policy was similar to that of Japan.