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Thread: FiveThirtyEight Biden Favored to Win Election

  1. #1

    FiveThirtyEight Biden Favored to Win Election





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    Almost nobody here believes in polls.
    Quote Originally Posted by RonZeplin View Post
    Super Joe Biden is already draining the swamp?

  4. #3
    I'm sure I will catch some flack for this, but I am actively rooting for Trump to lose. That is the only way we will be able to re-make the GOP in the Liberty image. The Trump-led GOP has been hostile to liberty candidates as evidenced by the Brakey, Sethi, Gurtler losses.
    just me

  5. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by trey4sports View Post
    I'm sure I will catch some flack for this, but I am actively rooting for Trump to lose. That is the only way we will be able to re-make the GOP in the Liberty image. The Trump-led GOP has been hostile to liberty candidates as evidenced by the Brakey, Sethi, Gurtler losses.
    I respectfully disagree with you. My fear is that if Trump loses the Neocons are going to take over.
    Quote Originally Posted by RonZeplin View Post
    Super Joe Biden is already draining the swamp?

  6. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by trey4sports View Post
    I'm sure I will catch some flack for this, but I am actively rooting for Trump to lose. That is the only way we will be able to re-make the GOP in the Liberty image. The Trump-led GOP has been hostile to liberty candidates as evidenced by the Brakey, Sethi, Gurtler losses.
    This is a fantasy. How do you "re-make" the GOP? If Trump loses, the Romney/McCain neocons take over. You don't re-make anything from a losers position of weakness.
    I just want objectivity on this forum and will point out flawed sources or points of view at my leisure.

    Quote Originally Posted by spudea on 04/20/16
    There won't be a contested convention
    Quote Originally Posted by spudea on 05/30/17
    The shooting of Gabrielle Gifford was blamed on putting a crosshair on a political map. I wonder what event we'll see justified with pictures like this.

  7. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by trey4sports View Post
    I'm sure I will catch some flack for this, but I am actively rooting for Trump to lose. That is the only way we will be able to re-make the GOP in the Liberty image. The Trump-led GOP has been hostile to liberty candidates as evidenced by the Brakey, Sethi, Gurtler losses.
    I don't know too many people left from this movement who truly believe the GOP is going to be remade in the Liberty image. That was all great thinking and strategy when the stars were aligning in 2007 to 2012, but it didn't happen with the best shot Liberty was ever given in the mainstream. I have no idea how anyone who lived and bled for that and watched all the shenanigans at local GOP meetings could ever think that would be possible again.

    On edit: I think the posters saying that Trump being in office help the liberty movement are wrong. All he did was put the marxist march on pause for a few years. The GOP is still exactly like it was in 2016. He hasn't done anything to help what Paul built take root.
    Last edited by Todd; 08-12-2020 at 01:56 PM.
    The wisdom of Swordy:

    On bringing the troops home
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    They are coming home, all the naysayers said they would never leave Syria and then they said they were going to stay in Iraq forever..... just like Trump said.

    On fighting corruption:
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Trump had to donate the "right way" and hang out with the "right people" in order to do business in NYC and Hollyweird and in order to investigate and expose them.
    Fascism Defined

  8. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Sammy View Post
    I respectfully disagree with you. My fear is that if Trump loses the Neocons are going to take over.
    That is a very real possibility.

    Quote Originally Posted by spudea View Post
    This is a fantasy. How do you "re-make" the GOP? If Trump loses, the Romney/McCain neocons take over. You don't re-make anything from a losers position of weakness.
    I don't necessarily think the neocons take over. They might, but its not a guarantee. And during the (at minimum) 4 years of Biden the party will be up for grabs and there will once again be a battle for the future of the party. Look at our Federal election winners (Amash, Massie, Paul) do you know what they all have in common? They were all elected during the Obama Presidency. Now rack your brain and tell me about the liberty federal GOP candidates who won during the Trump Presidency? none.

    Quote Originally Posted by Todd View Post
    I don't know too many people left from this movement who truly believe the GOP is going to be remade in the Liberty image. That was all great thinking and strategy when the stars were aligning in 2007 to 2012, but it didn't happen with the best shot Liberty was ever given in the mainstream. I have no idea how anyone who lived and bled for that and watched all the shenanigans at local GOP meetings could ever think that would be possible again.

    On edit: I think the posters saying that Trump being in office help the liberty movement are wrong. All he did was put the marxist march on pause for a few years. The GOP is still exactly like it was in 2016. He hasn't done anything to help what Paul built take root.
    I do. That is by far our best chance.

    Look at how many wins we've had at the state level. We are on track to have 250 YAL endorsed state legislators by 2022. Literally in 2 years we will have over 250 baby Ron Paul's who will have credible chances to win federal races after some time in their state house's.

    It boggles my mind that the massive work that YAL is doing is continually going unnoticed on this board. YAL is the single most important organization in the Liberty movement. They are actually DOING something and getting baby Ron Paul's elected.
    just me

  9. #8
    i'm still going with a 369 verses 369 Electoral College deadlock. https://www.theatlantic.com/past/doc...t/deadlock.htm



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  11. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Sammy View Post
    I respectfully disagree with you. My fear is that if Trump loses the Neocons are going to take over.
    Going to? They already have- where do you think the PA came from?
    There is no spoon.

  12. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by trey4sports View Post
    That is a very real possibility.



    I don't necessarily think the neocons take over. They might, but its not a guarantee. And during the (at minimum) 4 years of Biden the party will be up for grabs and there will once again be a battle for the future of the party. Look at our Federal election winners (Amash, Massie, Paul) do you know what they all have in common? They were all elected during the Obama Presidency. Now rack your brain and tell me about the liberty federal GOP candidates who won during the Trump Presidency? none.



    I do. That is by far our best chance.

    Look at how many wins we've had at the state level. We are on track to have 250 YAL endorsed state legislators by 2022. Literally in 2 years we will have over 250 baby Ron Paul's who will have credible chances to win federal races after some time in their state house's.

    It boggles my mind that the massive work that YAL is doing is continually going unnoticed on this board. YAL is the single most important organization in the Liberty movement. They are actually DOING something and getting baby Ron Paul's elected.
    You have made great points here as to why a renewed (more pro-liberty) GOP is something to hope for. But hope is all there is left, simply due to the fact that you're confused why "the massive work that YAL is doing is continually going unnoticed on this board".

    Nobody actually cares anymore, all thats left of the liberty movement is what started before Ron Paul became a star, and that is a purity pissing contest, circle jerkers about how much they hate the state. That type of personality and message is self-destructive and appears sub-consciously designed to turn people off and keep the circle small. The purist anti-state crowd is religious in nature and quite ironic because they've come full circle on the very thing they hate.

    Doesn't take away from the great work YAL is doing, I supported them, I was a member, all the best and most productive activists I knew came from YAL. If the purity testers actually took some YAL courses, this "movement" would've been much better off.
    THE SQUAD of RPF
    1. @enhanced_deficit - Troll Ringleader
    2. @TheCount - pocket holder
    3. @PAF - blind disciple
    4. ??

    @Ehanced_Deficit's real agenda on RPF is to troll:

    Who spends this much time copy & pasting the same recycled links, photos & talking points. Where does this troll stand on any issue?

    7 years and 25k posts later, forum does nothing & members think they're replying to real posts

    Know the deceptions of a paid troll HERE (Post #3)

  13. #11
    None of this will matter you will be vaxxed next year then soon either dead or a robot, who can be controlled through a 5G signal to your nanoparticles. This remarkably massive and coordinated global full court press is driving toward the ambitious end-game. There is no future but techno-fascism.


    Defense One:

    Why are pandemics so hard to stop?
    Often it’s because the disease moves faster than people can be tested for it. The Defense Department is helping to fund a new study to determine whether an under-the-skin biosensor can help trackers keep up — by detecting flu-like infections even before their symptoms begin to show. Its maker, Profusa, says the sensor is on track to try for FDA approval by early next year….

    Coronavirus Gives A Dangerous Boost To DARPA’s Darkest Agenda:

    Most of these technologies garnering positive media coverage thanks to Covid-19 were developed several years ago. They include the DARPA-funded platforms used to produce DNA and RNA vaccines, classes of vaccine that has never been approved for human use in the U.S. and involve injecting foreign genetic material into the human body. Notably, it is this very class of vaccine, now being produced by DARPA-partnered companies, that billionaire and global health “philanthropist” Bill Gates recently asserted has him “most excited” relative to other Covid-19 vaccine candidates. Yet, key aspects regarding these vaccines and other DARPA “healthcare” initiatives have been left out of these recent positive reports, likely because they provide a window into what is arguably the agency’s darkest agenda.

    (Dr. Carrie Madej Medical biography) (Hydrogels)

    The current CDC survival rate of all people who get COVID-19 is about 99.8%, versus flu at about 99.9%

    Dr. Carrie Madej



    Video at Bitchute: https://www.bitchute.com/video/2oSIEkuV1DGe/
    Last edited by James_Madison_Lives; 08-12-2020 at 03:13 PM.

  14. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by trey4sports View Post
    I'm sure I will catch some flack for this, but I am actively rooting for Trump to lose. That is the only way we will be able to re-make the GOP in the Liberty image. The Trump-led GOP has been hostile to liberty candidates as evidenced by the Brakey, Sethi, Gurtler losses.
    Joe Biden and Harris will Make sure that every part of Liberty image is destroyed. If Trump and GOP losses this year there is no more GOP. There will be no more for Liberty candidates.

  15. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by AngryCanadian View Post
    Joe Biden and Harris will Make sure that every part of Liberty image is destroyed. If Trump and GOP losses this year there is no more GOP. There will be no more for Liberty candidates.
    No offense, but that is not realistic.
    just me

  16. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by trey4sports View Post
    No offense, but that is not realistic.
    Demographics disagree with that. If Biden steps down on Jan 2021 its going to be President Harris.

  17. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by trey4sports View Post
    I'm sure I will catch some flack for this, but I am actively rooting for Trump to lose. That is the only way we will be able to re-make the GOP in the Liberty image. The Trump-led GOP has been hostile to liberty candidates as evidenced by the Brakey, Sethi, Gurtler losses.
    +rep
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    You only show up to attack Trump when he is wrong
    Make America the Land of the Free & the Home of the Brave again

  18. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by trey4sports View Post
    No offense, but that is not realistic.
    LOL... twitter, facebook, youtube.. have you not been paying attention? Imagine if they have an administration that is friendly to their views.. How long do you think the Ron Paul channel will last on youtube during a Biden admin with Ron questioning the effectiveness of masks?
    "He's talkin' to his gut like it's a person!!" -me
    "dumpster diving isn't professional." - angelatc
    "You don't need a medical degree to spot obvious bullshit, that's actually a separate skill." -Scott Adams
    "When you are divided, and angry, and controlled, you target those 'different' from you, not those responsible [controllers]" -Q

    "Each of us must choose which course of action we should take: education, conventional political action, or even peaceful civil disobedience to bring about necessary changes. But let it not be said that we did nothing." - Ron Paul

    "Paul said "the wave of the future" is a coalition of anti-authoritarian progressive Democrats and libertarian Republicans in Congress opposed to domestic surveillance, opposed to starting new wars and in favor of ending the so-called War on Drugs."



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  20. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by trey4sports View Post
    I'm sure I will catch some flack for this, but I am actively rooting for Trump to lose. That is the only way we will be able to re-make the GOP in the Liberty image. The Trump-led GOP has been hostile to liberty candidates as evidenced by the Brakey, Sethi, Gurtler losses.
    I think the GOP gave up on the liberty platform a while back and it would take a miracle to see a Goldwater GOP again. But, I wish you all the luck.
    When life itself seems lunatic, who knows where madness lies? - Miguel de Cervantes, (Don Quixote)

    Quote Originally Posted by Voluntarist View Post
    The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the Federal Reserve Notes of patriotic central banks
    Quote Originally Posted by jon4liberty View Post
    You "guys" have the market cornered on transexual satan worshipping anarchists

    "Our Enemy, The State" by Albert Nock. https://famguardian.org/Publications...bertJKnock.pdf

  21. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by AngryCanadian View Post
    Joe Biden and Harris will Make sure that every part of Liberty image is destroyed. If Trump and GOP losses this year there is no more GOP. There will be no more for Liberty candidates.
    ^^this^^ +rep

    Exception: Rand.
    When life itself seems lunatic, who knows where madness lies? - Miguel de Cervantes, (Don Quixote)

    Quote Originally Posted by Voluntarist View Post
    The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the Federal Reserve Notes of patriotic central banks
    Quote Originally Posted by jon4liberty View Post
    You "guys" have the market cornered on transexual satan worshipping anarchists

    "Our Enemy, The State" by Albert Nock. https://famguardian.org/Publications...bertJKnock.pdf

  22. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by Pauls' Revere View Post
    I think the GOP gave up on the liberty platform a while back and it would take a miracle to see a Goldwater GOP again. But, I wish you all the luck.
    Just like Ron Paul said.... the parties are nothing more than empty vessels for us to imbue our values with.
    just me

  23. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by trey4sports View Post
    That is a very real possibility.



    I don't necessarily think the neocons take over. They might, but its not a guarantee. And during the (at minimum) 4 years of Biden the party will be up for grabs and there will once again be a battle for the future of the party. Look at our Federal election winners (Amash, Massie, Paul) do you know what they all have in common? They were all elected during the Obama Presidency. Now rack your brain and tell me about the liberty federal GOP candidates who won during the Trump Presidency? none.



    I do. That is by far our best chance.

    Look at how many wins we've had at the state level. We are on track to have 250 YAL endorsed state legislators by 2022. Literally in 2 years we will have over 250 baby Ron Paul's who will have credible chances to win federal races after some time in their state house's.

    It boggles my mind that the massive work that YAL is doing is continually going unnoticed on this board. YAL is the single most important organization in the Liberty movement. They are actually DOING something and getting baby Ron Paul's elected.
    Ok I'll grant you.... I gave up on actually searching at the local levels and haven't paid that much attention. I actually have YAL on my twitter news feed and I would have hoped I would have noticed a few victories, but cannot say I have followed too closely.

    At first glance it just doesn't seem possible with the fire in the belly that most of the youth have for the left wing marxism these days. Are they really baby Ron Paul's? That seems a stretch.
    The wisdom of Swordy:

    On bringing the troops home
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    They are coming home, all the naysayers said they would never leave Syria and then they said they were going to stay in Iraq forever..... just like Trump said.

    On fighting corruption:
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Trump had to donate the "right way" and hang out with the "right people" in order to do business in NYC and Hollyweird and in order to investigate and expose them.
    Fascism Defined

  24. #21
    A Biden/Harris presidency is going to be absolutely horrible. Both of them support the Green New Deal. If that passes, everybody that works in the oil industry is going to be screwed.
    "Perhaps one of the most important accomplishments of my administration is minding my own business."

    Calvin Coolidge

  25. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by Todd View Post
    Ok I'll grant you.... I gave up on actually searching at the local levels and haven't paid that much attention. I actually have YAL on my twitter news feed and I would have hoped I would have noticed a few victories, but cannot say I have followed too closely.

    At first glance it just doesn't seem possible with the fire in the belly that most of the youth have for the left wing marxism these days. Are they really baby Ron Paul's? That seems a stretch.
    Quote Originally Posted by Todd View Post
    Ok I'll grant you.... I gave up on actually searching at the local levels and haven't paid that much attention. I actually have YAL on my twitter news feed and I would have hoped I would have noticed a few victories, but cannot say I have followed too closely.

    At first glance it just doesn't seem possible with the fire in the belly that most of the youth have for the left wing marxism these days. Are they really baby Ron Paul's? That seems a stretch.
    I can tell you that the bar to get YAL help is pretty high. I was speaking with a YAL guy on Tuesday when I was sign-waiving for Gurtler and he was telling me that the candidates have to go through 2 (2 hr) interviews before getting a decision. Not only that but in most of these state races we are their main fundraising arm as well as their ground game so guess who they are beholden to?

    I also know that one of the people who knocked doors with me in Iowa in 2011 for the "Christmas Vacation with Ron Paul" program is now a state rep. in MO. I know that Matt Gurtler (a YAL state house rep. who ran for Congress) voted NO more than any other legislator in GA. Glenn Jacobs won his Mayoral race because of YAL. This election cycle (primary 2020) has been huge for YAL. If we win most of the seats we've primaried come Novemeber we will be on track for 250 by 2022.

    Granted, I am much more interested in Federal Races. That is probably a bad thing as I know a lot of important issues go on at the state level. I am a math guy though - and what I really like to do is to come up with equations. The question becomes... of the state rep's who run for Congress, how many of those races are we winning?

    FC (Federal Candidates) X WP (Win Probability) = Federal Legislators

    So far we've lost the Brakey race and the Gurtler race. Those are the only two candidates who had come up through the YAL organization and been state rep's then ran for Congress. The discerning thing is that they both had the money advantage (when you add in PAC support) as well as a much better ground game than their opponents. So what is the missing puzzle piece? Is it just too difficult to win as a no compromise candidate? I believe that is the case when the GOP is in power. It is too difficult to break with your own party on anything and get elected. Our Federal wins will come about when the opposing party is in power, and that might just happen come this November.
    just me

  26. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by Ender View Post
    Going to? They already have- where do you think the PA came from?
    Trump is not perfect on foreign policy but he is far better than 90% of Republicans & Democrats.
    Quote Originally Posted by RonZeplin View Post
    Super Joe Biden is already draining the swamp?

  27. #24
    How can people really think liberty has a chance with the shifting demographics in this country. POC hate white people, and they want to destroy them. Liberty does not allow them to steal from them, so why would they support liberty candidates? As much as white people want to believe tribalism is extinct it's not, the only thing going extinct is people who aren't tribalistic.



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  29. #25
    I don't really care who wins and won't vote for either. But it seems like there is a huge enthusiasm gap this time. Trump voters rabidly support him and and I see very little support for Biden. Trump yard signs and stickers outnumber Biden 20 to 1 here. This is why Clinton lost and 538 got it wrong last time.

  30. #26
    I cant help but notice we are losing more and more non establishment under Trump.Though Trump and the neocons seem to be on different pages for different issues.

    Trey is right

  31. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by trey4sports View Post
    I'm sure I will catch some flack for this, but I am actively rooting for Trump to lose. That is the only way we will be able to re-make the GOP in the Liberty image. The Trump-led GOP has been hostile to liberty candidates as evidenced by the Brakey, Sethi, Gurtler losses.
    Pipe dream.

    If Trump were to lose, the Democrats have plans to make DC and Puerto Rico into states so that can pickup 4 more Senators. They also have plans to expand the Supreme Court. Their goal is a permanent majority.

    Another harsh reality is that the Democrat party being remade in the image of Bernie Sanders communism is about 100 times more likely than remaking the GOP in a Liberty image.
    Citizen of Arizona
    @cleaner4d4

    I am a libertarian. I am advocating everyone enjoy maximum freedom on both personal and economic issues as long as they do not bring violence unto others.

  32. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by Cleaner44 View Post
    Pipe dream.

    If Trump were to lose, the Democrats have plans to make DC and Puerto Rico into states so that can pickup 4 more Senators. They also have plans to expand the Supreme Court. Their goal is a permanent majority.

    Another harsh reality is that the Democrat party being remade in the image of Bernie Sanders communism is about 100 times more likely than remaking the GOP in a Liberty image.
    The two are not mutually exclusive. It is in times of crisis that the party looks inward and searches it's soul. When the Dem's go further left that is an opportunity for the GOP to move further right. That is why we haven't gained much steam since Trump won. For all intents and purposes the base was happy, the economy (in the short term) was doing well and life was good. Only when there is a crisis does your average voter start to take a closer look. Never let a crisis go to waste.
    just me

  33. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by 69360 View Post
    I don't really care who wins and won't vote for either. But it seems like there is a huge enthusiasm gap this time. Trump voters rabidly support him and and I see very little support for Biden. Trump yard signs and stickers outnumber Biden 20 to 1 here. This is why Clinton lost and 538 got it wrong last time.
    It's crazy how little support Biden actually has. Guys been running for president for two years and I've yet to actually see an actual Biden bumper sticker. At least when it came to Hillary I remember seeing a few bumper stickers.
    "Perhaps one of the most important accomplishments of my administration is minding my own business."

    Calvin Coolidge

  34. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by trey4sports View Post
    The two are not mutually exclusive. It is in times of crisis that the party looks inward and searches it's soul. When the Dem's go further left that is an opportunity for the GOP to move further right. That is why we haven't gained much steam since Trump won. For all intents and purposes the base was happy, the economy (in the short term) was doing well and life was good. Only when there is a crisis does your average voter start to take a closer look. Never let a crisis go to waste.
    I agree that they aren't mutually exclusive. I also see a Republican party that has moved away from the neo-con Bush party. I see that Trump hasn't started any new wars in the middle east like Obama and Bush. I see that peace has been negotiated between Israel and UAE.

    I also see that the overwhelming amount of humans are much more inclined to reject liberty in favor and a government that they believe will take care of them.

    I think the GOP is moving away from the neo-con center and more toward the right in many ways. I don't know that anything more is realistic.
    Citizen of Arizona
    @cleaner4d4

    I am a libertarian. I am advocating everyone enjoy maximum freedom on both personal and economic issues as long as they do not bring violence unto others.

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