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Thread: How will China-U.S. war play out?

  1. #1



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  3. #2
    China will collapse and there will be no war.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  4. #3
    battles would probably take place on ground near and around trade routes like Panama Canal, Greenland , and Strait of Hormuz....South China Sea. We need to allow Japan full armament, and bring all troops back to the states for defensive positions

  5. #4
    https://www.yahoo.com/news/australia...051644854.html

    Sydney (AFP) - Australia has rejected Beijing's territorial and maritime claims in the South China Sea in a formal declaration to the United Nations, aligning itself more closely with Washington in the escalating row.

    In a statement filed on Thursday, Australia said there was "no legal basis" to several disputed Chinese claims in the sea including those related to the construction of artificial islands on small shoals and reefs.

    "Australia rejects China's claim to 'historic rights' or 'maritime rights and interests' as established in the 'long course of historical practice' in the South China Sea," the declaration read.

    "There is no legal basis for China to draw straight baselines connecting the outermost points of maritime features or 'island groups' in the South China Sea, including around the 'Four Sha' or 'continental' or 'outlying' archipelagos."

    The declaration comes after US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo declared Beijing's pursuit of territory and resources in the South China Sea as illegal, explicitly backing the territorial claims of Southeast Asian countries against China's.

    Beijing claims almost all of the South China Sea based on a so-called nine-dash line, a vague delineation from maps dating back to the 1940s.

    We're being governed ruled by a geriatric Alzheimer patient/puppet whose strings are being pulled by an elitist oligarchy who believe they can manage the world... imagine the utter maniacal, sociopathic hubris!

  6. #5
    A war with China would lead to the destruction of both countries permanently. Avoiding a war with them should be a top priority. We're involved in too many wars enough as it is. We don't need to get involved in another one. Congress won't even vote on this so it'll just be another illegal war.
    Last edited by Anti Globalist; 07-25-2020 at 11:40 AM.
    "Perhaps one of the most important accomplishments of my administration is minding my own business."

    Calvin Coolidge

  7. #6
    I too claim the south china seas and will designate australia to represent me in war against the chicoms while I eat steak and drink beer . Best of luck aussies . I'm rooting for you .

  8. #7
    Ask the UFO fleet the Pentagon keeps lying about...

    China wouldn't last a week by itself. It's the prospect of Russia joining them that worries the Pentagon.

    Not China - their nukes can be poofed.
    Last edited by Snowball; 07-27-2020 at 02:18 PM.

  9. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Anti Globalist View Post
    A war with China would lead to the destruction of both countries permanently. Avoiding a war with them should be a top priority. We're involved in too many wars enough as it is. We don't need to get involved in another one. Congress won't even vote on this so it'll just be another illegal war.
    I disagree. You want to pass the destruction off to your kids and their kids?



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  11. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by CaptainAmerica View Post
    I disagree. You want to pass the destruction off to your kids and their kids?
    We don't need a war to destroy China.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  12. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by Snowball View Post
    Ask the UFO fleet the Pentagon keeps lying about...

    China wouldn't last a week by itself. It's the prospect of Russia joining them that worries the Pentagon.

    Not China - their nukes can be poofed.
    War with China would by virtue involve North Korea and Russia. US stealth wouldn't be much of a leg up since China and Russia both know our stealth tech intimately (remember the stealth drone that went down in Iran around 2012 or so?) so you'd have to have infantry playing a heavy part. The sad fact is Russia's hypersonic missile tech makes our missile defense systems look like doo doo right now along with both China and Russia's 5th gen fighters aren't exactly hand me downs. Russia's Sukhoi Su-57 is actually cutting edge and if China's 5th gen is even close you're talking a very capable air force.

    That's not even getting into their Middle East allies crippling oil movement. And that's not even getting into the nuclear debate.

    Conventional war between the US, Russia, and/or China isn't something really feasible unless something seriously catastrophic happened as far as ever happening. It's just too much blood to pay.
    "Self conquest is the greatest of all victories." - Plato

  13. #11
    China is getting stronger as the US is getting weaker, so China has no incentive to start a war. If there's a war, it will be started by an increasingly desperate US (perhaps one whose currency is crashing, for instance). That's a real possibility, which is a good reason to avoid supporting chauvinistic, anti-China politicians. The world is going to look a lot like the 1930s in coming years, with China playing the US (emerging superpower) and the US playing either Britain (annoyed former superpower) or Germany (radical revanchist). I'm not terribly optimistic about the US going the way of Britain, so thank God for MAD, which, for the time being anyway, dramatically reduces the chances (I hope) of all out war.
    Last edited by r3volution 3.0; 08-03-2020 at 07:48 PM.

  14. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by r3volution 3.0 View Post
    China is getting stronger as the US is getting weaker, so China has no incentive to start a war. If there's a war, it will be started by an increasingly desperate US (perhaps one whose currency is crashing, for instance). That's a real possibility, which is a good reason to avoid supporting chauvinistic, anti-China politicians. The world is going to look a lot like the 1930s in coming years, with China playing the US (emerging superpower) and the US playing either Britain (annoyed former superpower) or Germany (radical revanchist). I'm not terribly optimistic about the US going the way of Britain, so thank God for MAD, which, for the time being anyway, dramatically reduces the chances (I hope) of all out war.
    https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/i...astern-kingdom

    The assumption of compatibility between Chinese and American interests in the Middle East is the residue of an otherwise defunct strategic belief system. Call it “harmonic convergence.” From Presidents Nixon to Obama, American leaders mistakenly assumed that globalism would transform China into a kinder, gentler communist power.

    This theory began with the basic recognition that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) faced extraordinary pressure to grow its economy to create jobs for an exploding population. By necessity, therefore, Beijing had no choice but to accept several core components of capitalism, chief among them the flexibility that only decentralized decision-making can provide. As China decentralized its economy, so the thinking went, a new middle class would rise and demand more say over government policies. Full-blown democracy might not ensue, but relations between rulers and ruled would become ever more consensual and transactional. The iron laws of market economics would transform the CCP from a tyrant into the largely benign technocratic manager of a giant outsourcing park for Apple and Nike.

    Harmonic convergence is a materialist theory of history, a capitalist analogue to Marxism. It assumes economics to be the main driver of human affairs, and it sees the “liberal international order” as the product of the immutable laws of political economy—universal laws that would shave the rough edges off communist China just as they had shaped Europe, America, Australia, Japan, and South Korea into modern liberal states. For decades, successive American presidents from both political parties worked to integrate the economies of China and America, turning them into conjoined twins.

    The dynamics on which harmonic convergence focused were real enough. But the theory’s exclusive focus on economics blinded American leaders to countervailing factors—cultural, political, and demographic—of equal or greater weight. Culturally, China sees itself not as one country among many, but as a great civilization that is central to humankind. Politically, the CCP has proved more capable than anyone ever dreamed possible of adapting single-party rule to the demands of a modern economy. Thanks, in part, to the rise of new technologies, the CCP now manages to efficiently surveil 1.4 billion people, permitting them latitude in their economic affairs while ruthlessly policing their political life and social interactions.

    We're being governed ruled by a geriatric Alzheimer patient/puppet whose strings are being pulled by an elitist oligarchy who believe they can manage the world... imagine the utter maniacal, sociopathic hubris!

  15. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by Pauls' Revere View Post
    https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/i...astern-kingdom

    The assumption of compatibility between Chinese and American interests in the Middle East is the residue of an otherwise defunct strategic belief system. Call it “harmonic convergence.” From Presidents Nixon to Obama, American leaders mistakenly assumed that globalism would transform China into a kinder, gentler communist power.

    This theory began with the basic recognition that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) faced extraordinary pressure to grow its economy to create jobs for an exploding population. By necessity, therefore, Beijing had no choice but to accept several core components of capitalism, chief among them the flexibility that only decentralized decision-making can provide. As China decentralized its economy, so the thinking went, a new middle class would rise and demand more say over government policies. Full-blown democracy might not ensue, but relations between rulers and ruled would become ever more consensual and transactional. The iron laws of market economics would transform the CCP from a tyrant into the largely benign technocratic manager of a giant outsourcing park for Apple and Nike.

    Harmonic convergence is a materialist theory of history, a capitalist analogue to Marxism. It assumes economics to be the main driver of human affairs, and it sees the “liberal international order” as the product of the immutable laws of political economy—universal laws that would shave the rough edges off communist China just as they had shaped Europe, America, Australia, Japan, and South Korea into modern liberal states. For decades, successive American presidents from both political parties worked to integrate the economies of China and America, turning them into conjoined twins.

    The dynamics on which harmonic convergence focused were real enough. But the theory’s exclusive focus on economics blinded American leaders to countervailing factors—cultural, political, and demographic—of equal or greater weight. Culturally, China sees itself not as one country among many, but as a great civilization that is central to humankind. Politically, the CCP has proved more capable than anyone ever dreamed possible of adapting single-party rule to the demands of a modern economy. Thanks, in part, to the rise of new technologies, the CCP now manages to efficiently surveil 1.4 billion people, permitting them latitude in their economic affairs while ruthlessly policing their political life and social interactions.
    I'm not sure what your point is.

  16. #14
    I thought that it would dovetail into your quote quite well.

    Quote Originally Posted by r3volution 3.0 View Post
    China is getting stronger as the US is getting weaker, so China has no incentive to start a war. If there's a war, it will be started by an increasingly desperate US (perhaps one whose currency is crashing, for instance). That's a real possibility, which is a good reason to avoid supporting chauvinistic, anti-China politicians. The world is going to look a lot like the 1930s in coming years, with China playing the US (emerging superpower) and the US playing either Britain (annoyed former superpower) or Germany (radical revanchist). I'm not terribly optimistic about the US going the way of Britain, so thank God for MAD, which, for the time being anyway, dramatically reduces the chances (I hope) of all out war.
    The assumption of compatibility between Chinese and American interests in the Middle East is the residue of an otherwise defunct strategic belief system. Call it “harmonic convergence.” From Presidents Nixon to Obama, American leaders mistakenly assumed that globalism would transform China into a kinder, gentler communist power.

    This theory began with the basic recognition that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) faced extraordinary pressure to grow its economy to create jobs for an exploding population. By necessity, therefore, Beijing had no choice but to accept several core components of capitalism, chief among them the flexibility that only decentralized decision-making can provide. As China decentralized its economy, so the thinking went, a new middle class would rise and demand more say over government policies. Full-blown democracy might not ensue, but relations between rulers and ruled would become ever more consensual and transactional. The iron laws of market economics would transform the CCP from a tyrant into the largely benign technocratic manager of a giant outsourcing park for Apple and Nike.

    Harmonic convergence is a materialist theory of history, a capitalist analogue to Marxism. It assumes economics to be the main driver of human affairs, and it sees the “liberal international order” as the product of the immutable laws of political economy—universal laws that would shave the rough edges off communist China just as they had shaped Europe, America, Australia, Japan, and South Korea into modern liberal states. For decades, successive American presidents from both political parties worked to integrate the economies of China and America, turning them into conjoined twins.

    The dynamics on which harmonic convergence focused were real enough. But the theory’s exclusive focus on economics blinded American leaders to countervailing factors—cultural, political, and demographic—of equal or greater weight. Culturally, China sees itself not as one country among many, but as a great civilization that is central to humankind. Politically, the CCP has proved more capable than anyone ever dreamed possible of adapting single-party rule to the demands of a modern economy. Thanks, in part, to the rise of new technologies, the CCP now manages to efficiently surveil 1.4 billion people, permitting them latitude in their economic affairs while ruthlessly policing their political life and social interactions.

    We're being governed ruled by a geriatric Alzheimer patient/puppet whose strings are being pulled by an elitist oligarchy who believe they can manage the world... imagine the utter maniacal, sociopathic hubris!

  17. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Pauls' Revere View Post
    I thought that it would dovetail into your quote quite well.

    ...

    The assumption of compatibility between Chinese and American interests in the Middle East is the residue of an otherwise defunct strategic belief system. Call it “harmonic convergence.” From Presidents Nixon to Obama, American leaders mistakenly assumed that globalism would transform China into a kinder, gentler communist power.

    This theory began with the basic recognition that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) faced extraordinary pressure to grow its economy to create jobs for an exploding population. By necessity, therefore, Beijing had no choice but to accept several core components of capitalism, chief among them the flexibility that only decentralized decision-making can provide. As China decentralized its economy, so the thinking went, a new middle class would rise and demand more say over government policies. Full-blown democracy might not ensue, but relations between rulers and ruled would become ever more consensual and transactional. The iron laws of market economics would transform the CCP from a tyrant into the largely benign technocratic manager of a giant outsourcing park for Apple and Nike.

    Harmonic convergence is a materialist theory of history, a capitalist analogue to Marxism. It assumes economics to be the main driver of human affairs, and it sees the “liberal international order” as the product of the immutable laws of political economy—universal laws that would shave the rough edges off communist China just as they had shaped Europe, America, Australia, Japan, and South Korea into modern liberal states. For decades, successive American presidents from both political parties worked to integrate the economies of China and America, turning them into conjoined twins.

    The dynamics on which harmonic convergence focused were real enough. But the theory’s exclusive focus on economics blinded American leaders to countervailing factors—cultural, political, and demographic—of equal or greater weight. Culturally, China sees itself not as one country among many, but as a great civilization that is central to humankind. Politically, the CCP has proved more capable than anyone ever dreamed possible of adapting single-party rule to the demands of a modern economy. Thanks, in part, to the rise of new technologies, the CCP now manages to efficiently surveil 1.4 billion people, permitting them latitude in their economic affairs while ruthlessly policing their political life and social interactions.
    I'd certainly agree that the "make China our friend (or perhaps bitch) by trading with them" theory was all wet; a powerful China was bound to become a competitor to the US. As for the nature of that competition, I don't see it so much as an expansionist China, as a China trying to eliminate US influence in its backyard. To use another historical analogy, China is like the US in the 19th century, trying to kick the European Great Powers out of the western hemisphere. And note that that process didn't require a war between, say, the US and Britain (though they came fairly close a couple times).

  18. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by r3volution 3.0 View Post
    I'd certainly agree that the "make China our friend (or perhaps bitch) by trading with them" theory was all wet; a powerful China was bound to become a competitor to the US. As for the nature of that competition, I don't see it so much as an expansionist China, as a China trying to eliminate US influence in its backyard. To use another historical analogy, China is like the US in the 19th century, trying to kick the European Great Powers out of the western hemisphere. And note that that process didn't require a war between, say, the US and Britain (though they came fairly close a couple times).
    I concur, we are shifting away from traditional manufacturing (have been for decades) and more into tech and a non-manufacturing or less manufacturing economy. Our starting point was sooner than China or rather we are cycling through the next paradigm shift into a tech driven economy. Where China came out of the Mao revolution and has leap frogged into the AI and tech economy for the most part.

    China will and has shifted and next will be the markets in Africa as they become the newest labor intensive markets as China moves away from that. Nike shoes will be made in Lagos for example.

    We're being governed ruled by a geriatric Alzheimer patient/puppet whose strings are being pulled by an elitist oligarchy who believe they can manage the world... imagine the utter maniacal, sociopathic hubris!



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  20. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by Pauls' Revere View Post
    I concur, we are shifting away from traditional manufacturing (have been for decades) and more into tech and a non-manufacturing or less manufacturing economy. Our starting point was sooner than China or rather we are cycling through the next paradigm shift into a tech driven economy. Where China came out of the Mao revolution and has leap frogged into the AI and tech economy for the most part.

    China will and has shifted and next will be the markets in Africa as they become the newest labor intensive markets as China moves away from that. Nike shoes will be made in Lagos for example.
    That's an interesting point; it's like how Germany leapfrogged Britain in certain industries by being a late-comer.

    And Africa's definitely going to be interesting. China's apparently taking a very different approach than the US in exercising its soft power. They're at least portraying themselves as pursuing an apolitical foreign policy: no talk of democratization, for instance, as a pre-condition for trade deals. That doesn't mean that they won't intervene as the US has to get rid of difficult politicians (say, those who want to nationalize Chinese assets), but we should expect more pragmatism. I see a lot of opportunity in Africa in coming years, for investors, tourists, expats, etc. Meanwhile, I see increasingly radical and irrational politics in the West, probably the US in particular.
    Last edited by r3volution 3.0; 08-03-2020 at 09:37 PM.

  21. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by r3volution 3.0 View Post
    That's an interesting point; it's like how Germany leapfrogged Britain in certain industries by being a late-comer.

    And Africa's definitely going to be interesting. China's apparently taking a very different approach than the US in exercising its soft power. They're at least portraying themselves as pursuing an apolitical foreign policy: no talk of democratization, for instance, as a pre-condition for trade deals. That doesn't mean that they won't intervene as the US has to get rid of difficult politicians (say, those who want to nationalize Chinese assets), but we should expect more pragmatism. I see a lot of opportunity in Africa in coming years, for investors, tourists, expats, etc. Meanwhile, I see increasingly radical and irrational politics in the West, probably the US in particular.
    I think the EU will become a political union similar to the US but more socialistic. It'll be interesting to see how the largest economies maneuver for not only resources but which tacl they take to direct those economies in the future. To this end, I think the rare Earth materials will play a big part. Those places that hold them will be the new Saudi Arabia of RE materials. Those that can access them will drive civilization. China is staging itself for just this endeavor. Africa holds a lot of these resources.

    We're being governed ruled by a geriatric Alzheimer patient/puppet whose strings are being pulled by an elitist oligarchy who believe they can manage the world... imagine the utter maniacal, sociopathic hubris!

  22. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by Pauls' Revere View Post
    I think the EU will become a political union similar to the US but more socialistic. It'll be interesting to see how the largest economies maneuver for not only resources but which tacl they take to direct those economies in the future. To this end, I think the rare Earth materials will play a big part. Those places that hold them will be the new Saudi Arabia of RE materials. Those that can access them will drive civilization. China is staging itself for just this endeavor. Africa holds a lot of these resources.
    Europe on average is more socialistic than the US today, but that may change as the US, and especially USD, lose their preeminence.

    Europe has problems but it's relatively stable; whereas we're looking at a massive crisis, and that tends to cause big leaps in state power.

    For a long time I didn't see the logic of Peter Schiff being bullish on Europe; now I'm thinking somewhat differently.

    ...not to say they'll be booming, that'll be the job of the soon-to-be-formerly-underdeveloped world.

  23. #20
    This is silly.

    War with China is unnecessary
    __________________________________________________ ________________
    "A politician will do almost anything to keep their job, even become a patriot" - Hearst

  24. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by Matt Collins View Post
    This is silly.

    War with China is unnecessary
    From the perspective of rational people? Yes

    From the perspective of politicians presiding over the collapse of "American exceptionalism," looking for someone to blame...

    It's not the base case scenario, but it's a non-trivial risk.

  25. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by r3volution 3.0 View Post
    China is getting stronger as the US is getting weaker, so China has no incentive to start a war. If there's a war, it will be started by an increasingly desperate US (perhaps one whose currency is crashing, for instance).
    ^^^^Amateur opinion.



    China is getting weaker as evidenced by their shot economic growth.

    If China and US get into physical confrontation, the most likely reason would be China invading Taiwan and most Americans, media, and nations will push for something to be done.
    Last edited by eleganz; 08-20-2020 at 05:49 PM.
    THE SQUAD of RPF
    1. enhanced_deficit - Paid Troll / John Bolton book promoter
    2. Devil21 - LARPing Wizard, fake magical script reader
    3. Firestarter - Tax Troll; anti-tax = "criminal behavior"
    4. TheCount - Comet Pizza Pedo Denier <-- sick

    @Ehanced_Deficit's real agenda on RPF =troll:

    Who spends this much time copy/pasting the same recycled links, photos/talking points.

    7 yrs/25k posts later RPF'ers still respond to this troll

  26. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by eleganz View Post
    Amateur opinion.

    China is getting weaker as evidenced by their shot economic growth.

    If China and US get into physical confrontation, the most likely reason would be China invading Taiwan and most Americans, media, and nations will push for something to be done.
    China will continue to grow faster than the US for the foreseeable future. As for Taiwan, any such war is likely to be provoked by the US: e.g. by the US officially recognizing Taiwanese independence or interfering in China-Taiwan trade relations. Or China could react to US provocations unrelated to Taiwan (e.g. cutting China off from dollar funding) by attacking Taiwan. But China isn't going to just wake up one day and attack Taiwan, or anyone else. As I said, they have time on their side. War will be a last resort if the US gets too aggressive with containment.

  27. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by eleganz View Post
    ^^^^Amateur opinion.



    China is getting weaker as evidenced by their shot economic growth.

    If China and US get into physical confrontation, the most likely reason would be China invading Taiwan and most Americans, media, and nations will push for something to be done.
    ^^^THIS^^^

    But they will collapse before they invade Taiwan.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment



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  29. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by r3volution 3.0 View Post
    China will continue to grow faster than the US for the foreseeable future. As for Taiwan, any such war is likely to be provoked by the US: e.g. by the US officially recognizing Taiwanese independence or interfering in China-Taiwan trade relations. Or China could react to US provocations unrelated to Taiwan (e.g. cutting China off from dollar funding) by attacking Taiwan. But China isn't going to just wake up one day and attack Taiwan, or anyone else. As I said, they have time on their side. War will be a last resort if the US gets too aggressive with containment.
    No they won't at least not while Trump is in office. They didn't even want to do an economic growth forecast last year.

    They have already said several times in the past that they want to invade by 2020. Yes, you will say that means nothing.

    But If the US said they'd wish to invade Iran by 2020, you'd parade that around day and night as proof of this, that and the other.

    I'm sure you're also of the opinion that US "provoked" the trade war?
    Last edited by eleganz; 08-21-2020 at 05:50 PM.
    THE SQUAD of RPF
    1. enhanced_deficit - Paid Troll / John Bolton book promoter
    2. Devil21 - LARPing Wizard, fake magical script reader
    3. Firestarter - Tax Troll; anti-tax = "criminal behavior"
    4. TheCount - Comet Pizza Pedo Denier <-- sick

    @Ehanced_Deficit's real agenda on RPF =troll:

    Who spends this much time copy/pasting the same recycled links, photos/talking points.

    7 yrs/25k posts later RPF'ers still respond to this troll

  30. #26
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  31. #27
    Any war results in nuclear weapons. Having ships and planes makes no real difference here.



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