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Thread: Bitcoin Is A Tech Stock, Not Money

  1. #1

    Bitcoin Is A Tech Stock, Not Money

    BTC isn't a good like gold.

    BTC isn't supported by law like the dollar.

    BTC's value derives from its utility as a payment processing system, like VISA, Paypal, etc.

    Now let's suppose for the sake of argument that BTC is the greatest payment processing system of all time.

    There's no reason to think it will stay that way.

    Industry leaders come and go, especially in tech.

    There's every reason to think that BTC will one day be MySpaced.

    But this doesn't just apply to BTC; it applies to each and every cryptocurrency.

    Whatever eventually replaces BTC will itself eventually be replaced, and so on.

    ...which is why cryptocurrencies in general aren't workable.

    Each of them is by its nature bound to become obsolete, and so none of them can serve as a long-term store of value.



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  3. #2
    Uh, ya, except BTC has a development team and it is much better than it was years ago, they can add features at any time so people don't need to switch to the new crypto if BTC can implement the same features, the code is all open-source and multiple cryptos can co-exist at once.

    I would encourage you to sit on the sidelines on this one, anyway. No need for people who want global monarchies to have anymore money than they already do.
    "He's talkin' to his gut like it's a person!!" -me
    "dumpster diving isn't professional." - angelatc
    "You don't need a medical degree to spot obvious bullshit, that's actually a separate skill." -Scott Adams
    "When you are divided, and angry, and controlled, you target those 'different' from you, not those responsible [controllers]" -Q

    "Each of us must choose which course of action we should take: education, conventional political action, or even peaceful civil disobedience to bring about necessary changes. But let it not be said that we did nothing." - Ron Paul

    "Paul said "the wave of the future" is a coalition of anti-authoritarian progressive Democrats and libertarian Republicans in Congress opposed to domestic surveillance, opposed to starting new wars and in favor of ending the so-called War on Drugs."

  4. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by dannno View Post
    Uh, ya, except BTC has a development team and it is much better than it was years ago, they can add features at any time so people don't need to switch to the new crypto if BTC can implement the same features, the code is all open-source and multiple cryptos can co-exist at once.
    None of that is unique to BTC.

    There's no reason that some other cryptocurrency can't develop the next big feature and surpass BTC.

    The big guy isn't always the most innovative.

    Now, excuse me, I'm going to go listen to my Zune.
    Last edited by r3volution 3.0; 07-09-2020 at 06:00 PM.

  5. #4
    Another way to think about it:

    Suppose next year we discovered a new element even gold-ier than gold; maybe it's identical to gold, except it's more value-dense so it's cheaper to store. It would replace gold, which would go to zero. Then we discovered an even gold-ier element the next year, and so on and so forth. Once people realized that each of these metals is bound to be replaced by something better, none of them would be useful as a store of value.

    Barring the discovery of new elements, however, gold isn't likely to lose its value as a good. It's been almost universally valued as a good for all of human history, independent of any changes in technology, culture, etc. The Sumerians had about the same view of gold as we do. This puts gold in the same category as sugar, chicken, or pretty girls - i.e. things unlikely to go out of style anytime soon. In contrast, BTC belongs with the current model iphone, or the current model Toyota Camry, which everyone knows will become obsolete in the not too distant future. They might be great products, you might make a lot of money selling them at the moment, but you don't want to put your life savings into stockpiling them.
    Last edited by r3volution 3.0; 07-09-2020 at 06:22 PM.

  6. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by r3volution 3.0 View Post
    None of that is unique to BTC.

    There's no reason that some other cryptocurrency can't develop the next big feature and surpass BTC.

    The big guy isn't always the most innovative.

    Now, excuse me, I'm going to go listen to my Zune.
    What is unique to BTC is that it is currently the dominant crypto with the largest infrastructure. If somebody else makes a better crypto, BTC simply has to add these attributes to the platform. People aren't going to switch overnight, BTC has the highest and most stable value, most infrastructure and it is probably going to be the gold standard of crypto for a long time to come.
    Last edited by dannno; 07-09-2020 at 07:15 PM.
    "He's talkin' to his gut like it's a person!!" -me
    "dumpster diving isn't professional." - angelatc
    "You don't need a medical degree to spot obvious bullshit, that's actually a separate skill." -Scott Adams
    "When you are divided, and angry, and controlled, you target those 'different' from you, not those responsible [controllers]" -Q

    "Each of us must choose which course of action we should take: education, conventional political action, or even peaceful civil disobedience to bring about necessary changes. But let it not be said that we did nothing." - Ron Paul

    "Paul said "the wave of the future" is a coalition of anti-authoritarian progressive Democrats and libertarian Republicans in Congress opposed to domestic surveillance, opposed to starting new wars and in favor of ending the so-called War on Drugs."

  7. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by r3volution 3.0 View Post
    Another way to think about it:

    Suppose next year we discovered a new element even gold-ier than gold; maybe it's identical to gold, except it's more value-dense so it's cheaper to store. It would replace gold, which would go to zero. Then we discovered an even gold-ier element the next year, and so on and so forth. Once people realized that each of these metals is bound to be replaced by something better, none of them would be useful as a store of value.

    Barring the discovery of new elements, however, gold isn't likely to lose its value as a good. It's been almost universally valued as a good for all of human history, independent of any changes in technology, culture, etc. The Sumerians had about the same view of gold as we do. This puts gold in the same category as sugar, chicken, or pretty girls - i.e. things unlikely to go out of style anytime soon. In contrast, BTC belongs with the current model iphone, or the current model Toyota Camry, which everyone knows will become obsolete in the not too distant future. They might be great products, you might make a lot of money selling them at the moment, but you don't want to put your life savings into stockpiling them.
    You keep ignoring the elephant in the room that I keep mentioning, which is that BTC can easily be upgraded to the goldier gold, there is no need to switch over all of the infrastructure in place, etc..
    "He's talkin' to his gut like it's a person!!" -me
    "dumpster diving isn't professional." - angelatc
    "You don't need a medical degree to spot obvious bullshit, that's actually a separate skill." -Scott Adams
    "When you are divided, and angry, and controlled, you target those 'different' from you, not those responsible [controllers]" -Q

    "Each of us must choose which course of action we should take: education, conventional political action, or even peaceful civil disobedience to bring about necessary changes. But let it not be said that we did nothing." - Ron Paul

    "Paul said "the wave of the future" is a coalition of anti-authoritarian progressive Democrats and libertarian Republicans in Congress opposed to domestic surveillance, opposed to starting new wars and in favor of ending the so-called War on Drugs."

  8. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by dannno View Post
    What is unique to BTC is that it is currently the dominant crypto with the largest infrastructure. If somebody else makes a better crypto, BTC simply has to add these attributes to the platform. People aren't going to switch overnight, BTC has the highest and most stable value, and it is probably going to be the gold standard of crypto for a long time to come.
    You make it sound as if that's trivially easy or inevitable. It's not. If it were, no dominant company would ever stop being dominant. As for BTC being the biggest, that's certainly true, and that network effect supports BTC, but that will fade over time without an underlying use-case. An asset supported by nothing but the network effect, i.e. with everyone buying only to sell to someone else, is in a speculative bubble.

    Quote Originally Posted by dannno View Post
    You keep ignoring the elephant in the room that I keep mentioning, which is that BTC can easily be upgraded to the goldier gold, there is no need to switch over all of the infrastructure in place, etc..
    See above

  9. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by r3volution 3.0 View Post
    You make it sound as if that's trivially easy or inevitable. It's not. If it were, no dominant company would ever stop being dominant. As for BTC being the biggest, that's certainly true, and that network effect supports BTC, but that will fade over time without an underlying use-case. An asset supported by nothing but the network effect, i.e. with everyone buying only to sell to someone else, is in a speculative bubble.
    Private companies have proprietary products including code, whereas with crypto one of the best features is that it is open source. So the new better crypto would have to be open source, or else nobody will trust it and it loses that feature. Since it is open source, BTC can easily adopt the new features much more easily than private companies.
    "He's talkin' to his gut like it's a person!!" -me
    "dumpster diving isn't professional." - angelatc
    "You don't need a medical degree to spot obvious bullshit, that's actually a separate skill." -Scott Adams
    "When you are divided, and angry, and controlled, you target those 'different' from you, not those responsible [controllers]" -Q

    "Each of us must choose which course of action we should take: education, conventional political action, or even peaceful civil disobedience to bring about necessary changes. But let it not be said that we did nothing." - Ron Paul

    "Paul said "the wave of the future" is a coalition of anti-authoritarian progressive Democrats and libertarian Republicans in Congress opposed to domestic surveillance, opposed to starting new wars and in favor of ending the so-called War on Drugs."



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  11. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by dannno View Post
    Private companies have proprietary products including code, whereas with crypto one of the best features is that it is open source. So the new better crypto would have to be open source, or else nobody will trust it and it loses that feature.
    Yes, because no one buys products that use proprietary software...

    Since it is open source, BTC can easily adopt the new features much more easily than private companies.
    So will Linux inevitably become the dominant OS?

    They can just adopt anything any other open source OS comes up with, and no proprietary OS will be trusted, right?

  12. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by r3volution 3.0 View Post
    Yes, because no one buys products that use proprietary software...



    So will Linux inevitably become the dominant OS?

    They can just adopt anything any other open source OS comes up with, and no proprietary OS will be trusted, right?
    If you think a proprietary crypto will be the most successful, well, good luck with all that..

    Yes, it's possible, and they have already tried. Are you willing to shove a portion of your life savings into something nobody can see but the people you give your money to? People put their wealth into bitcoin because the code is publicly available, and so you know what is going to happen.. or if you don't, you can ask somebody who is smart enough to understand the code. If it's proprietary, access to that information becomes extremely difficult.

    When you buy a computer and choose an OS it is a small investment to be used as a tool to help you communicate, entertain, etc.. if it works marginally better than linux, but you don't know exactly what it's doing, then you might go for it. But you probably wouldn't store you wealth in something designed that way if you had a better option.
    Last edited by dannno; 07-09-2020 at 09:07 PM.
    "He's talkin' to his gut like it's a person!!" -me
    "dumpster diving isn't professional." - angelatc
    "You don't need a medical degree to spot obvious bullshit, that's actually a separate skill." -Scott Adams
    "When you are divided, and angry, and controlled, you target those 'different' from you, not those responsible [controllers]" -Q

    "Each of us must choose which course of action we should take: education, conventional political action, or even peaceful civil disobedience to bring about necessary changes. But let it not be said that we did nothing." - Ron Paul

    "Paul said "the wave of the future" is a coalition of anti-authoritarian progressive Democrats and libertarian Republicans in Congress opposed to domestic surveillance, opposed to starting new wars and in favor of ending the so-called War on Drugs."

  13. #11
    Just a hunch but I think most of the coiners have stopped messing with flat-lined cryptos and moved to robinhood for their gambling addictions.
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul

    "We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book

  14. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by r3volution 3.0 View Post
    So will Linux inevitably become the dominant OS?
    Depending on which sectors of the OS market you consider. Linux already is the dominant OS.

    If you divide the OS market into roughly four sectors (desktop/laptop, mobile/personal, Internet servers, and supercomputers), Linux is dominant in two of those sectors - or three, if you count Android as a Linux OS.

    For desktop/laptop OSes, Windows is significantly dominant.

    For mobile/personal computing platforms (e.g., smartphones), Android is significantly dominant.
    (Android is based on a modified Linux kernel, so technically, it could be counted as a Linux OS.)

    For Internet servers, Linux is significantly dominant.

    For supercomputers, Linux is utterly dominant.
    (Every one of the 500 most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world runs on Linux.)
    The Bastiat Collection · FREE PDF · FREE EPUB · PAPER
    Frédéric Bastiat (1801-1850)

    • "When law and morality are in contradiction to each other, the citizen finds himself in the cruel alternative of either losing his moral sense, or of losing his respect for the law."
      -- The Law (p. 54)
    • "Government is that great fiction, through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else."
      -- Government (p. 99)
    • "[W]ar is always begun in the interest of the few, and at the expense of the many."
      -- Economic Sophisms - Second Series (p. 312)
    • "There are two principles that can never be reconciled - Liberty and Constraint."
      -- Harmonies of Political Economy - Book One (p. 447)

    · tu ne cede malis sed contra audentior ito ·

  15. #13
    Just listened to a podcast with Bill Miller who is one of the better value mutual fund managers of all time. He said he was one of the largest holders of Bitcoin bought between 200 and 300 and has never sold. https://www.google.com/search?q=bill...hrome&ie=UTF-8

    Paul Tudor Jones has 2% of his assets in Bitcoin now. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/11/paul...ets-in-it.html

    I would never touch Bitcoin except for a short term trade but it is interesting that two people a lot smarter than me are high on it.

  16. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by Krugminator2 View Post
    Just listened to a podcast with Bill Miller who is one of the better value mutual fund managers of all time. He said he was one of the largest holders of Bitcoin bought between 200 and 300 and has never sold. https://www.google.com/search?q=bill...hrome&ie=UTF-8

    Paul Tudor Jones has 2% of his assets in Bitcoin now. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/11/paul...ets-in-it.html

    I would never touch Bitcoin except for a short term trade but it is interesting that two people a lot smarter than me are high on it.
    Some people can see the future, others can't.
    "He's talkin' to his gut like it's a person!!" -me
    "dumpster diving isn't professional." - angelatc
    "You don't need a medical degree to spot obvious bullshit, that's actually a separate skill." -Scott Adams
    "When you are divided, and angry, and controlled, you target those 'different' from you, not those responsible [controllers]" -Q

    "Each of us must choose which course of action we should take: education, conventional political action, or even peaceful civil disobedience to bring about necessary changes. But let it not be said that we did nothing." - Ron Paul

    "Paul said "the wave of the future" is a coalition of anti-authoritarian progressive Democrats and libertarian Republicans in Congress opposed to domestic surveillance, opposed to starting new wars and in favor of ending the so-called War on Drugs."

  17. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by dannno View Post
    Some people can see the future, others can't.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...e-in-free-fall

    They just added value to BTC. I now think of it as a off grid asset.

    We're being governed ruled by a geriatric Alzheimer patient/puppet whose strings are being pulled by an elitist oligarchy who believe they can manage the world... imagine the utter maniacal, sociopathic hubris!



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