States and the COVID-19 Sweet Spot
Brian4Liberty - May 14, 2020
(RPF) - Much discussion recently revolves around the actions of the various states during this COVID-19 pandemic. Unfortunately, it all devolves into partisan battles. "This state has done better because they did this. No, this state did better because they did the opposite."
What is missed is that there are many variables at work with COVID-19 transmission, and that no simple action will determine how many cases there will be. Correlation does not imply or prove causation. Yet every day, pundits and politicians make overly simplified claims that are far from scientific or provable.
For example, California may claim that closing early helped to prevent spread. At the same time, Florida may claim that not closing helped them. The truth may be that both fared much better than northern states due to climate and weather.
Technically, the speed of transmission is called the basic reproduction number (R0), which is also dependent upon how many people are susceptible to the virus. The more people that have had the virus and developed an immunity, the less that transmission can occur.
It is well known that temperature, humidity and sunshine play large roles in how well a virus transmits. And perhaps it could be argued that these are the most important variables.
Let's assume that COVID-19 has a sweet spot of these factors. At that sweet spot of temperature, humidity, and (lack of) sunshine, it transmits like wild fire. But vary from that, and it doesn't transmit as well. Deviate far enough from that sweet spot, and it may stop transmission all together.
This is the reasoning behind the seasonality of viruses. It has been suggested by many that COVID-19 will be seasonal. And some viruses can die out entirely if the conditions are right.
What is true is that individual states have different climate conditions that constantly change. Thus, it is dangerous to attempt to credit or discredit certain specific actions, when the most important variable was most likely the weather.
Preventative measures should change based upon the current speed of transmission. If a virus is transmitting rapidly and easily, then masks and social distancing should be recommended. When transmission slows, it is time to return to normal. One size does not fit all.
Will there be increased transmission if a state opens up? It may all depend upon if the state is still in the COVID-19 sweet spot. As we experience warmer weather, more humidity and more sunshine, there may be no need for any government mandates. Leave it up to individuals to decide what measures to take (or not take) for their own health.
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