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Thread: States and the COVID-19 Sweet Spot

  1. #1

    States and the COVID-19 Sweet Spot

    States and the COVID-19 Sweet Spot
    Brian4Liberty - May 14, 2020

    (RPF) - Much discussion recently revolves around the actions of the various states during this COVID-19 pandemic. Unfortunately, it all devolves into partisan battles. "This state has done better because they did this. No, this state did better because they did the opposite."

    What is missed is that there are many variables at work with COVID-19 transmission, and that no simple action will determine how many cases there will be. Correlation does not imply or prove causation. Yet every day, pundits and politicians make overly simplified claims that are far from scientific or provable.

    For example, California may claim that closing early helped to prevent spread. At the same time, Florida may claim that not closing helped them. The truth may be that both fared much better than northern states due to climate and weather.

    Technically, the speed of transmission is called the basic reproduction number (R0), which is also dependent upon how many people are susceptible to the virus. The more people that have had the virus and developed an immunity, the less that transmission can occur.

    It is well known that temperature, humidity and sunshine play large roles in how well a virus transmits. And perhaps it could be argued that these are the most important variables.

    Let's assume that COVID-19 has a sweet spot of these factors. At that sweet spot of temperature, humidity, and (lack of) sunshine, it transmits like wild fire. But vary from that, and it doesn't transmit as well. Deviate far enough from that sweet spot, and it may stop transmission all together.

    This is the reasoning behind the seasonality of viruses. It has been suggested by many that COVID-19 will be seasonal. And some viruses can die out entirely if the conditions are right.

    What is true is that individual states have different climate conditions that constantly change. Thus, it is dangerous to attempt to credit or discredit certain specific actions, when the most important variable was most likely the weather.

    Preventative measures should change based upon the current speed of transmission. If a virus is transmitting rapidly and easily, then masks and social distancing should be recommended. When transmission slows, it is time to return to normal. One size does not fit all.

    Will there be increased transmission if a state opens up? It may all depend upon if the state is still in the COVID-19 sweet spot. As we experience warmer weather, more humidity and more sunshine, there may be no need for any government mandates. Leave it up to individuals to decide what measures to take (or not take) for their own health.
    "Foreign aid is taking money from the poor people of a rich country, and giving it to the rich people of a poor country." - Ron Paul
    "Beware the Military-Industrial-Financial-Corporate-Internet-Media-Government Complex." - B4L update of General Dwight D. Eisenhower
    "Debt is the drug, Wall St. Banksters are the dealers, and politicians are the addicts." - B4L
    "Totally free immigration? I've never taken that position. I believe in national sovereignty." - Ron Paul
    They are what they hate.” - B4L


    The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own, and do not represent this forum or any other entities or persons.



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  3. #2
    This is the reasoning behind the seasonality of viruses. It has been suggested by many that COVID-19 will be seasonal. And some viruses can die out entirely if the conditions are right.
    Covid 19 according to one data it shares 75% resemblance to SARS. It could also die out in just few years or between two years from now as well.

  4. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty View Post
    States and the COVID-19 Sweet Spot
    Brian4Liberty - May 14, 2020

    (RPF) - Much discussion recently revolves around the actions of the various states during this COVID-19 pandemic. Unfortunately, it all devolves into partisan battles. "This state has done better because they did this. No, this state did better because they did the opposite."
    ...
    And this debate rages on, without anyone mentioning that how well a virus transmits varies, and is affected by temperature, humidity, sunshine, Vitamin D levels, etc.

    The virus transmits very easily under certain circumstances (The Sweet Spot). It may not transmit at all under other conditions.

    Debates comparing actions in winter to actions in summer without factoring in the specific conditions is not scientific. It is purely political. And that is what we have now, debates that are pseudo-scientific, and fully political.

    Imagine an "experiment" being called scientific if it was performed under completely different conditions but treated as if all was controlled and identical?

    "We checked water 100 times, and discovered that it is 33% solid, 33% liquid, and 34% gas."
    or
    "We checked water 100 times, and discovered that it is always solid, therefore you can walk on water."
    Last edited by Brian4Liberty; 05-27-2020 at 12:02 PM.
    "Foreign aid is taking money from the poor people of a rich country, and giving it to the rich people of a poor country." - Ron Paul
    "Beware the Military-Industrial-Financial-Corporate-Internet-Media-Government Complex." - B4L update of General Dwight D. Eisenhower
    "Debt is the drug, Wall St. Banksters are the dealers, and politicians are the addicts." - B4L
    "Totally free immigration? I've never taken that position. I believe in national sovereignty." - Ron Paul
    They are what they hate.” - B4L


    The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own, and do not represent this forum or any other entities or persons.

  5. #4
    The recommendations, orders, "science" and "facts" given to us by officials changes like the wind. They have changed their minds back and forth on nearly everything.

    Have any of them taken into account that fact that transmittability changes over time depending upon many factors? And that one size does not fit all?
    "Foreign aid is taking money from the poor people of a rich country, and giving it to the rich people of a poor country." - Ron Paul
    "Beware the Military-Industrial-Financial-Corporate-Internet-Media-Government Complex." - B4L update of General Dwight D. Eisenhower
    "Debt is the drug, Wall St. Banksters are the dealers, and politicians are the addicts." - B4L
    "Totally free immigration? I've never taken that position. I believe in national sovereignty." - Ron Paul
    They are what they hate.” - B4L


    The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own, and do not represent this forum or any other entities or persons.



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