Keeping a downward trend, just as predicted because at first only very sick people coming into the hospital for the denominator. There was no data on how many got it, didn't feel anything then got immune, or had mild symptoms then got immune.
Even with a good early data set from the Diamond Princess cruise ship, in March, 3711 passengers and crew onboard, of whom 705 became sick and tested positive for COVID-19 and seven died. That's 1% mortality, already way lower than initial 2-4%. Expecting cruise ship passengers to be a little older, rate would have been lower in a more representative demographic.
Now latest study is mortality rate as low as .25%. Initial estimates were 2-4%, leading to estimates of possibly millions dead. Seasonal flu is about .1%
Now we know that COVID-19 is not much deadlier than seasonal flu.
Navy hospital ship deployed to NYC with 1,000 bed capacity is only treating 22 patientsUPMC doctor argues COVID-19 not as deadly as feared, says its hospitals will shift back to normal
Updated May 11, 2020;
https://www.pennlive.com/news/2020/0...n0yHc7sDfdSk1A
A UPMC doctor on Thursday made a case the death rate for people infected with the new coronavirus may be as low as 0.25% far lower than the mortality rates of 2-4% or even higher cited in the early days of the pandemic.
Dr. Donald Yealy based it partly on studies of levels of coronavirus antibodies detected in people in New York and California, and partly on COVID-19 deaths in the Pittsburgh region. The studies found that 5-20% of people had been exposed to the coronavirus, with many noticing only mild illness or none at all, he said.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/03/polit...rus/index.html
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