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Thread: Electoral Map Poll: Donald Trump is Toast!

  1. #31
    This is a curious poll to be citing. His approval rating is up to the highest it's been since he was elected.... and his disapproval rating is down to the lowest it's been since he took office. Some figures are suggesting that Democrats and Independents are happy with the way he has handled the crisis. Who the heck knows.

    The only POTUS election poll that ever mattered are the ones that are made by people who bet money. That was the most accurate poll I ever saw in 2012 before they stopped that type of polling data.
    The wisdom of Swordy:

    On bringing the troops home
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    They are coming home, all the naysayers said they would never leave Syria and then they said they were going to stay in Iraq forever..... just like Trump said.

    On fighting corruption:
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Trump had to donate the "right way" and hang out with the "right people" in order to do business in NYC and Hollyweird and in order to investigate and expose them.
    Fascism Defined



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  3. #32
    Quote Originally Posted by Todd View Post
    This is a curious poll to be citing. His approval rating is up to the highest it's been since he was elected.... and his disapproval rating is down to the lowest it's been since he took office. Some figures are suggesting that Democrats and Independents are happy with the way he has handled the crisis. Who the heck knows.

    The only POTUS election poll that ever mattered are the ones that are made by people who bet money. That was the most accurate poll I ever saw in 2012 before they stopped that type of polling data.
    I think money would have trump 49 to 50 and biden about 40 .



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  5. #33
    Quote Originally Posted by Todd View Post
    This is a curious poll to be citing. His approval rating is up to the highest it's been since he was elected.... and his disapproval rating is down to the lowest it's been since he took office. Some figures are suggesting that Democrats and Independents are happy with the way he has handled the crisis. Who the heck knows.

    The only POTUS election poll that ever mattered are the ones that are made by people who bet money. That was the most accurate poll I ever saw in 2012 before they stopped that type of polling data.
    Apparently its a mish mash of polls (how selective, we don't know).

    But its clearly made by delusional democrats, likely a joint project between Alyssa Milano working with Tom Arnold.
    Last edited by eleganz; 04-08-2020 at 08:31 PM.
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  6. #34
    Quote Originally Posted by Warlord View Post
    Read it and weep. Trump is being CRUSHED by a senile old man.


    https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/...07973519790081

    This electoral map is left wing porn and you're jerking off to it.

    I mean I know you hate Trump with a TDS passion but theres got to be an ounce of reason left inside your noggin somewhere, even if you have to scrape for it. I hope to lower your expectations of a "crushing" defeat for Trump because I don't want to see you screeching and crying into the sky like those SJW losers because they thought Hilary had a 97% of winning.

    This whacky left wing "prediction" has Trump losing FL 65-34 and WI 62-37. Its sad anybody here would take it seriously, let alone creating thread titles like "TRUMP IS TOAST!"

    People usually only say "read it and weep" when they have a great hand that they are willing to put money on. Why don't you put money on this prediction @Warlord? I plan to wait for the dems to confirm their nominee and if its Biden, I'm putting actual money on Trump.

    Let's criticize when Trump necessary but be realistic at the same time. This kool-aid is not realistic, in the least.
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  7. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by eleganz View Post
    Why don't you put money on this prediction @Warlord? I plan to wait for the dems to confirm their nominee and if its Biden, I'm putting actual money on Trump.

    Let's criticize when Trump necessary but be realistic at the same time. This kool-aid is not realistic, in the least.

    I don't bet on two horse races. You can lose your money if you want!

    No president has ever won in a recession.
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  8. #36
    Quote Originally Posted by Warlord View Post
    I don't bet on two horse races. You can lose your money if you want!

    No president has ever won in a recession.
    Usually when the saying "read it and weep" is used (as you did in the OP), it means victory is assured.

    Yet you won't bet on it.

    So much for "toast".

    I'd also like to hear your thoughts on this amazingly accurate electoral map prediction of Trump losing Florida by nearly 30 points.
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  9. #37
    Quote Originally Posted by eleganz View Post
    Usually when the saying "read it and weep" is used (as you did in the OP), it means victory is assured.

    Yet you won't bet on it.

    So much for "toast".
    I think it will be closer than this poll suggests.

    However the poll is a poll of polls from legit sources. Click the link it's all referenced.

    Here's another NEW poll that shows Biden with large lead:

    Biden leads Trump by 8 points in national Quinnipiac poll

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...uinnipiac-poll
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  10. #38
    Quote Originally Posted by Warlord View Post
    I think it will be closer than this poll suggests.

    However the poll is a poll of polls from legit sources. Click the link it's all referenced.

    Here's another NEW poll that shows Biden with large lead:

    Biden leads Trump by 8 points in national Quinnipiac poll

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...uinnipiac-poll
    National polls don't matter especially at this stage.

    Swing state polls will tell a better picture but it won't matter until after the dems choose their nominee. This is all just basic political common sense.

    But please explain how Trump will lose FL by 30 points.

    Errr, scratch that...at this point if you're trying to justify the left wing porn in the OP, then I guess never mind, you're too far gone....
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  11. #39
    Quote Originally Posted by eleganz View Post
    National polls don't matter especially at this stage.

    Swing state polls will tell a better picture but it won't matter until after the dems choose their nominee. This is all just basic political common sense.

    But please explain how Trump will lose FL by 30 points.

    Errr, scratch that...at this point if you're trying to justify the left wing porn in the OP, then I guess never mind, you're too far gone....
    It doesn't say he will win FL by 30 points. That's the percentage chance of Biden winning FL.

    Click the link yourself and look. There's about two dozen FL polls referenced.
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  12. #40
    Quote Originally Posted by Warlord View Post
    It doesn't say he will win FL by 30 points. That's the percentage chance of Biden winning FL.

    Click the link yourself and look. There's about two dozen FL polls referenced.
    If they say Trump is toast, then he must be!

    but wait...





    Last edited by eleganz; 04-08-2020 at 09:18 PM.
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  14. #41
    Quote Originally Posted by eleganz View Post
    If they say Trump is toast, then he must be!

    but wait...
    No president has ever won reelection in a recession so I have no reason to doubt these polls even if they seem shocking.

    The US is in lockdown so voters are probably venting their frustrations to pollsters.

    We will see in November.
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  15. #42
    Quote Originally Posted by Warlord View Post
    No president has ever won reelection in a recession so I have no reason to doubt these polls even if they seem shocking.

    We will see in November.
    The map prediction you posted does not reflect surveys done in a recession.

    Two completely different arguments.

    If you are making the recession argument, then you look at polls that come in a recession. Basic logic.
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  16. #43
    Quote Originally Posted by eleganz View Post
    The map prediction you posted does not reflect surveys done in a recession.

    Two completely different arguments.

    If you are making the recession argument, then you look at polls that come in a recession. Basic logic.
    The US is basically in a recession and will be by November .

    The polls in the link are current. Take FL for example: the latest poll is dated April 4th and by the University of Florida and shows Biden +5.2

    In MI April 1st Public Policy Polling: Biden +2.7

    etc. etc

    .
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  17. #44
    Quote Originally Posted by Warlord View Post
    The US is basically in a recession and will be by November .

    The polls in the link are current. Take FL for example: the latest poll is dated April 4th and by the University of Florida and shows Biden +5.2

    In MI April 1st Public Policy Polling: Biden +2.7

    etc. etc

    .
    It is essentially a toss up. But Trump is the favorite. I know this because markets say he is the favorite. Markets are better predictor of the future than opinions and polls.

    https://www.electionbettingodds.com/
    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics...on-2020/winner

  18. #45
    Quote Originally Posted by Warlord View Post
    It's based on these surveys:

    https://politicalpolls.jhkforecasts....neral_election

    If you take Arizona for example, the senate race there polling shows Mark Kelly the gun grabber husband of Giffords up by 6 over the pathetic R so it could happen.
    Hillary Clinton had a 99% chance of winning, they said.
    "He's talkin' to his gut like it's a person!!" -me
    "dumpster diving isn't professional." - angelatc
    "You don't need a medical degree to spot obvious bullshit, that's actually a separate skill." -Scott Adams
    "When you are divided, and angry, and controlled, you target those 'different' from you, not those responsible [controllers]" -Q

    "Each of us must choose which course of action we should take: education, conventional political action, or even peaceful civil disobedience to bring about necessary changes. But let it not be said that we did nothing." - Ron Paul

    "Paul said "the wave of the future" is a coalition of anti-authoritarian progressive Democrats and libertarian Republicans in Congress opposed to domestic surveillance, opposed to starting new wars and in favor of ending the so-called War on Drugs."

  19. #46
    Quote Originally Posted by dannno View Post
    Hillary Clinton had a 99% chance of winning, they said.
    I could flip this round and say the same because as Krugminator posts Trump is favorite to win .

    We will see in November .
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  20. #47
    Quote Originally Posted by Warlord View Post
    I could flip this round and say the same because as Krugminator posts Trump is favorite to win .

    We will see in November .
    No, you can't.

    Krug said Trump is going to win not based on the polls, but based on the prediction markets.

    The prediction markets in 2016 were in favor of Hillary because the polls were completely faked and they got fooled.

    So the markets have adjusted for that, and now they are correctly predicting Trump, because they know the polls are bull$#@!. It is you that hasn't learned anything. And that is why you should stay out of the prediction markets.

    They also see Trump's approval numbers the highest they have been in history.
    "He's talkin' to his gut like it's a person!!" -me
    "dumpster diving isn't professional." - angelatc
    "You don't need a medical degree to spot obvious bullshit, that's actually a separate skill." -Scott Adams
    "When you are divided, and angry, and controlled, you target those 'different' from you, not those responsible [controllers]" -Q

    "Each of us must choose which course of action we should take: education, conventional political action, or even peaceful civil disobedience to bring about necessary changes. But let it not be said that we did nothing." - Ron Paul

    "Paul said "the wave of the future" is a coalition of anti-authoritarian progressive Democrats and libertarian Republicans in Congress opposed to domestic surveillance, opposed to starting new wars and in favor of ending the so-called War on Drugs."

  21. #48
    Quote Originally Posted by Krugminator2 View Post
    It is essentially a toss up. But Trump is the favorite. I know this because markets say he is the favorite. Markets are better predictor of the future than opinions and polls.

    https://www.electionbettingodds.com/
    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics...on-2020/winner
    Not really. The betting markets had Hillary winning last time and Trump was long odds. I remember it well so like I said I can flip this round and say otherwise.

    Also a lot can change between now and November. If there's a deep recession and lockdowns voters will be frustrated and Trump aint winning.
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  23. #49
    Quote Originally Posted by dannno View Post
    No, you can't.

    Krug said Trump is going to win not based on the polls, but based on the prediction markets.

    The prediction markets in 2016 were in favor of Hillary because the polls were completely faked and they got fooled.

    So the markets have adjusted for that, and now they are correctly predicting Trump, because they know the polls are bull$#@!. It is you that hasn't learned anything. And that is why you should stay out of the prediction markets.

    They also see Trump's approval numbers the highest they have been in history.
    Emphasis on 'NOW', what will they say in 6 months after the deepest recession since 1929?
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  24. #50
    This might be bit premature to pronounce, globalist deep neocons funding GOPA wing have deep pockets and close ties to many in media wing/Wall Street/wars profiteers lobbies etc.


    Foxnews/CNN have a history of publishing fakenews too, this poll should be viewed with many grains of salt.



    Published March 27
    Fox News Poll: Biden leads Trump by nine points
    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox...male-vp-pledge




    Published 4 hours ago
    Polls suggest public approval of Trump’s job combating coronavirus fading

    By Paul Steinhauser | Fox News

    John Roberts reports from the White House.

    President Trump has repeatedly praised the federal government’s response to the coronavirus crisis.
    “Everybody is amazed at the job we’re doing,” Trump touted at Monday’s White House briefing. “And the public is starting to find out.”
    THE LATEST FROM FOX NEWS ON THE CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC
    But the president’s comments don’t seem to square with new national polling.
    Fifty-four percent of Americans questioned in a new national survey from Monmouth University said the federal government’s measures have not gone far enough to slow the spread of the virus across the country. That’s up 9 percentage points from a month ago. Just 35 percent said the federal government’s measures have been appropriate, down from 47 percent in March.
    The survey, released Wednesday, also indicates that 55 percent said the federal government’s not doing enough to help states hard hit by the pandemic, with 37 percent saying Washington is doing enough.
    “Most Americans disagree with the Trump administration’s position that the federal government is a backup to the states. The public seems to view this as a national crisis that requires a national response on par with the aggressive approach taken by the states,” Monmouth University Polling Institute director Patrick Murray highlighted.
    A CNN national poll also released Wednesday showed that 41 percent think the federal government’s doing a good job of preventing the spread of the virus. That’s down 7 points from late last month. Fifty-five percent rated Washington’s response as poor, up 8 points.
    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pol...navirus-fading

  25. #51
    Quote Originally Posted by enhanced_deficit View Post
    This might be bit premature to pronounce, globalist deep neocons funding GOPA wing have deep pockets and close ties to many in media wing/Wall Street/wars profiteers lobbies etc.

    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pol...navirus-fading
    You can't win. If the poll shows against someones bias its rigged or wrong. If it shows high approvals for their candidate then its accurate.

    All im doing is posting info in the public domain.

    If people really think Trump is going to be handsomely re-elected during the deepest recession in 100 years then that is their business.

    The polls to me are showing a clear trend that voters - at the moment - are probably frustrated with lockdowns and economic uncertainty which is why they're against the president and why he is down 8 points in 2 different surveys even if that seems outlandish. The only way we will know for sure is when the ballots are cast.

    You can bump this thread in 6 months if you like and laugh at me like a few of us did to @phill4paul when he was constantly boasting about the Trump economy.

    I was right in that thread too so we will see !
    Last edited by Warlord; 04-08-2020 at 10:24 PM.
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  26. #52
    Quote Originally Posted by Warlord View Post
    You can't win. If the poll shows against someones bias its rigged or wrong. If it shows high approvals for their candidate then its accurate.

    All im doing is posting info in the public domain.

    If people really think Trump is going to be handsomely re-elected during the deepest recession in 100 years then that is their business.

    The polls to me are showing a clear trend that voters - at the moment - are probably frustrated with lockdowns and economic uncertainty which is why they're against the president and why he is down 8 points in 2 different surveys even if that seems outlandish. The only way we will know for sure is when the ballots are cast.

    You can bump this thread in 6 months if you like and laugh at me like a few of us did to @phill4paul when he was constantly boasting about the Trump economy.

    I was right in that thread too so we will see !

    Lol, ya, everybody is blaming Trump for the Corona Virus
    "He's talkin' to his gut like it's a person!!" -me
    "dumpster diving isn't professional." - angelatc
    "You don't need a medical degree to spot obvious bullshit, that's actually a separate skill." -Scott Adams
    "When you are divided, and angry, and controlled, you target those 'different' from you, not those responsible [controllers]" -Q

    "Each of us must choose which course of action we should take: education, conventional political action, or even peaceful civil disobedience to bring about necessary changes. But let it not be said that we did nothing." - Ron Paul

    "Paul said "the wave of the future" is a coalition of anti-authoritarian progressive Democrats and libertarian Republicans in Congress opposed to domestic surveillance, opposed to starting new wars and in favor of ending the so-called War on Drugs."

  27. #53
    Quote Originally Posted by dannno View Post
    Lol, ya, everybody is blaming Trump for the Corona Virus
    Voters are fickle... the MSM will be shilling for Biden. That gives him a huge advantage IMO.

    TRUMP only won by 70,000 votes across 4 battleground states to win in 2016. This time he will be running during a deep recession as the incumbent.

    If I didn't need the money I would place a bet on Biden but as Krugminator posted there's not much in it even in the betting markets.

    The only way I can see Trump winning is if Biden's dementia gets worse and voters decide to turn against him. Of course that is possible but I doubt it.

    Biden is not as bad as Hillary in terms of putting people off.
    Last edited by Warlord; 04-08-2020 at 11:24 PM.
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  28. #54
    Quote Originally Posted by Warlord View Post
    Voters are fickle... the MSM will be shilling for Biden. That gives him a huge advantage IMO.

    TRUMP only won by 70,000 votes across 4 battleground states to win in 2016. This time he will be running during a deep recession as the incumbent.

    If I didn't need the money I would place a bet on Biden but as Krugminator posted there's not much in it even in the betting markets.

    The only way I can see Trump winning is if Biden's dementia gets worse and voters decide to turn against him. Of course that is possible but I doubt it.

    Biden is not as bad as Hillary in terms of putting people off.
    You are nuts.



    Most people see that and say, ok sounds great Grandpa, but I think it's time for your nap.
    "He's talkin' to his gut like it's a person!!" -me
    "dumpster diving isn't professional." - angelatc
    "You don't need a medical degree to spot obvious bullshit, that's actually a separate skill." -Scott Adams
    "When you are divided, and angry, and controlled, you target those 'different' from you, not those responsible [controllers]" -Q

    "Each of us must choose which course of action we should take: education, conventional political action, or even peaceful civil disobedience to bring about necessary changes. But let it not be said that we did nothing." - Ron Paul

    "Paul said "the wave of the future" is a coalition of anti-authoritarian progressive Democrats and libertarian Republicans in Congress opposed to domestic surveillance, opposed to starting new wars and in favor of ending the so-called War on Drugs."

  29. #55
    Quote Originally Posted by Warlord View Post
    The US is basically in a recession and will be by November .

    The polls in the link are current. Take FL for example: the latest poll is dated April 4th and by the University of Florida and shows Biden +5.2

    In MI April 1st Public Policy Polling: Biden +2.7

    etc. etc

    .
    Basically is not an argument.

    And to say recession is being reflected in current polls is false. You're just attempting to combine the two arguments you're making when they were clearly two arguments.

    Real clear average shows Trump is higher this week than last. If we're basically in a recession and your understanding is that today's polls are basically reflecting recession, thats why Trump is down in the polls.

    Truly. Flawed. Logic.

    Quote Originally Posted by Warlord View Post
    You can't win. If the poll shows against someones bias its rigged or wrong. If it shows high approvals for their candidate then its accurate.

    All im doing is posting info in the public domain.

    The polls to me are showing a clear trend that voters - at the moment - are probably frustrated with lockdowns and economic uncertainty which is why they're against the president and why he is down 8 points in 2 different surveys even if that seems outlandish. The only way we will know for sure is when the ballots are cast.
    Frustrated...?

    First time ever Trump is above water in a poll. 46/43, over 40% approval in Dec. For basically being a recession, thats not too shabby.....


    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/08/1-in...ns-survey.html

    One in 10 Americans said they have lost their job and 16% reported they have seen their wages or salary reduced due to the coronavirus shutdowns, according to the CNBC All-America Economic Survey.
    The survey also found that President Trump’s job rating rose to 46% from 40% in December, with more Americans approving of his handling of the presidency than disapproving for the first time in the three years it’s been tracked by CNBC.
    Optimistically, 51% said the economy will improve in the next year.
    The quarterly survey polled 800 Americans across the nation from Friday through Monday.
    Last edited by eleganz; 04-09-2020 at 03:38 AM.
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  30. #56
    Quote Originally Posted by Warlord View Post
    Voters are fickle... the MSM will be shilling for Biden. That gives him a huge advantage IMO.

    TRUMP only won by 70,000 votes across 4 battleground states to win in 2016. This time he will be running during a deep recession as the incumbent.

    If I didn't need the money I would place a bet on Biden but as Krugminator posted there's not much in it even in the betting markets.

    The only way I can see Trump winning is if Biden's dementia gets worse and voters decide to turn against him. Of course that is possible but I doubt it.

    Biden is not as bad as Hillary in terms of putting people off.
    - Trump has since increased his share of Asian, latino, black vote, undeniable.
    - Consolidated his GOP base (95%+ party support), all the NeverTrump voters that went LP last time, most will come back.
    - Add on his growth in rural/working class vote
    - As well as the culturally secret Trump voters that the pollsters will definitely miss.

    Of course to be fair, we have to include his loss of white suburban voters (who are increasingly liberal), especially women in this category. Other than that, he didn't lose much, it'll be a net gain.

    General electorate/main street are not paying attention now. I've said the same about Sanders not being able to win a general election despite current polls showing strength vs. Trump. People will start to pay attention and do their homework after the first debates. Biden doesn't sink now, he will sink in the first debate. But I don't even think its a guarantee Biden will get the nomination, they might do a deal with him to give it to a stronger opponent. Advertising season would destroy Biden, American's already know who Trump is.
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    4. TheCount - Comet Pizza Pedo Denier <-- sick

    @Ehanced_Deficit's real agenda on RPF =troll:

    Who spends this much time copy/pasting the same recycled links, photos/talking points.

    7 yrs/25k posts later RPF'ers still respond to this troll



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  32. #57
    Quote Originally Posted by eleganz View Post
    But I don't even think its a guarantee Biden will get the nomination, they might do a deal with him to give it to a stronger opponent. Advertising season would destroy Biden, American's already know who Trump is.

    So you are seeing the DNC shafting Bernie Bros a third time? If its not Biden.. then its Sanders. I don't see how they get can away with it, "democrats" would become "plutocrats"

  33. #58
    Quote Originally Posted by Warlord View Post
    Not really. The betting markets had Hillary winning last time and Trump was long odds. I remember it well so like I said I can flip this round and say otherwise.

    Also a lot can change between now and November. If there's a deep recession and lockdowns voters will be frustrated and Trump aint winning.
    Actually the betting sites were surprisingly accurate. Pundits and models thought Hillary was a sure thing. Saw a lot of models put Hillary at 95%+ https://www.huffpost.com/entry/nate-...b0d9ce6fbc6f7f

    The betting sites had trump as a 3 to 1 or 4 to 1 underdog around the election. https://wgntv.com/news/politics/what...tial-election/ "The gambling firms showed Clinton's odds of winning were roughly 80% on Tuesday. https://money.cnn.com/2016/11/09/new...win/index.html

    In retrospect 3 to 1 was probably just about right. Everything went Trump's way and he won a very close election. Lost the popular vote and won a bunch of states by the skin of his teeth.

    The markets right now say the election is nearly even money, which objectively means Trump is far from toast. Arguing with markets is a good way to lose money. Or perhaps you have created models and made millions betting, in which case disregard what I said.
    Last edited by Krugminator2; 04-09-2020 at 06:18 AM.

  34. #59
    Quote Originally Posted by Krugminator2 View Post

    The markets right now say the election is nearly even money. Arguing with markets is a good way to lose money.
    Oddschecker has it like this:

    Trump 10/11 (Fav)
    Biden: 5/6

    There's not much in it. We're talking half a point in odds.

    You aint getting rich backing the winner and i'm going for Biden based on the fact that Trump is an incumbent seeking re-election during a recession.

    He has made a huge mess by spending so much and not being honest and cutting the size of government and balancing the budget. Furthermore his intervention in the economy will make things worse. Higher debt, deficits, more inflation. He aint winning an election with all this sh1t happening. In my opinion of course.
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  35. #60
    Quote Originally Posted by Warlord View Post
    Oddschecker has it like this:

    Trump 10/11 (Fav)
    Biden: 5/6

    There's not much in it. We're talking half a point in odds.

    So you rephrased exactly what I said.

    You aint getting rich backing the winner and i'm going for Biden based on the fact that Trump is an incumbent seeking re-election during a recession.
    I am not backing anyone. I have no opinion who will win other than what the markets say. The markets say the race is even or Trump is a slight favorite.

    You said Trump was toast, which disagrees with the most accurate measure of reality. In fact if you possessed such great insight you would become the richest person in the world if you made enough bets getting 1 to 1 odds where the actual odds are "toast".

    Biden winning doesn't mean you were right just like Trump winning wouldn't mean I was right. Biden is going to win nearly half the time.
    Last edited by Krugminator2; 04-09-2020 at 06:43 AM.

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