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Right, so you admit the people with certain genetics and low viral loads, most of them are NOT getting tested. The limited testing tends to be prioritized for people with bad symptoms. But the people without bad symptoms still got the virus. So is it fair to create a fatality rate without including them? Of course not. That is all I'm saying. That is what everything I have said comes down to.
"He's talkin' to his gut like it's a person!!" -me
"dumpster diving isn't professional." - angelatc
"You don't need a medical degree to spot obvious bullshit, that's actually a separate skill." -Scott Adams
"When you are divided, and angry, and controlled, you target those 'different' from you, not those responsible [controllers]" -Q
"Each of us must choose which course of action we should take: education, conventional political action, or even peaceful civil disobedience to bring about necessary changes. But let it not be said that we did nothing." - Ron Paul
"Paul said "the wave of the future" is a coalition of anti-authoritarian progressive Democrats and libertarian Republicans in Congress opposed to domestic surveillance, opposed to starting new wars and in favor of ending the so-called War on Drugs."
Last edited by dannno; 04-05-2020 at 02:25 PM.
"He's talkin' to his gut like it's a person!!" -me
"dumpster diving isn't professional." - angelatc
"You don't need a medical degree to spot obvious bullshit, that's actually a separate skill." -Scott Adams
"When you are divided, and angry, and controlled, you target those 'different' from you, not those responsible [controllers]" -Q
"Each of us must choose which course of action we should take: education, conventional political action, or even peaceful civil disobedience to bring about necessary changes. But let it not be said that we did nothing." - Ron Paul
"Paul said "the wave of the future" is a coalition of anti-authoritarian progressive Democrats and libertarian Republicans in Congress opposed to domestic surveillance, opposed to starting new wars and in favor of ending the so-called War on Drugs."
"He's talkin' to his gut like it's a person!!" -me
"dumpster diving isn't professional." - angelatc
"You don't need a medical degree to spot obvious bullshit, that's actually a separate skill." -Scott Adams
"When you are divided, and angry, and controlled, you target those 'different' from you, not those responsible [controllers]" -Q
"Each of us must choose which course of action we should take: education, conventional political action, or even peaceful civil disobedience to bring about necessary changes. But let it not be said that we did nothing." - Ron Paul
"Paul said "the wave of the future" is a coalition of anti-authoritarian progressive Democrats and libertarian Republicans in Congress opposed to domestic surveillance, opposed to starting new wars and in favor of ending the so-called War on Drugs."
One of the factors that determine how sick you get is the initial viral load you receive.
For example, if you touch a contaminated service and then touch your mouth, you may receive a smaller initial load of virus. By the time this multiplies to become a formidable army and overtake your immune system, you have a chance to build antibodies and fight it off.
However, if someone who is teaming with virus coughs in your face or you sit close to someone for a while who is breathing/coughing, you can’t get exposed to a large viral load initially. Because of that, this army grows very quickly and can overtake your immune system before you can develop antibodies. Most of the very sick young front line patients are because they were exposed to a large viral load all at once (intubating someone, getting coughed on, etc).
Other factors also weigh in (ones baseline immune status/co morbidities/genetics etc), but it seems one of the greatest factors is how high of an initial viral load you are exposed to.
+'These things I command you, that you love one another.' - Jesus Christ
It’s all speculation at this time until broad surveillance serological studies are performed to see who has antibodies. But I won’t be surprised if it is 1-2% case fatality rate which is very high for a highly contagious respiratory illness. Again, ultimately the case fatality rate also depends on medical services available. In a perfect system with endless resources, the rate would be lower than during a severe pandemic.
+'These things I command you, that you love one another.' - Jesus Christ
"He's talkin' to his gut like it's a person!!" -me
"dumpster diving isn't professional." - angelatc
"You don't need a medical degree to spot obvious bullshit, that's actually a separate skill." -Scott Adams
"When you are divided, and angry, and controlled, you target those 'different' from you, not those responsible [controllers]" -Q
"Each of us must choose which course of action we should take: education, conventional political action, or even peaceful civil disobedience to bring about necessary changes. But let it not be said that we did nothing." - Ron Paul
"Paul said "the wave of the future" is a coalition of anti-authoritarian progressive Democrats and libertarian Republicans in Congress opposed to domestic surveillance, opposed to starting new wars and in favor of ending the so-called War on Drugs."
Chris
"Government ... does not exist of necessity, but rather by virtue of a tragic, almost comical combination of klutzy, opportunistic terrorism against sitting ducks whom it pretends to shelter, plus our childish phobia of responsibility, praying to be exempted from the hard reality of life on life's terms." Wolf DeVoon
"...Make America Great Again. I'm interested in making American FREE again. Then the greatness will come automatically."Ron Paul
Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been admitted to hospital for tests, 10 days after testing positive for coronavirus,
He was taken to a London hospital on Sunday evening with "persistent symptoms" - including a temperature.
That is true, which is why they modeled that without mitigation, if it does have such a mortality rate, upwards to 2 million Americans could die. Time will tell after more data what the true rate is. But with so many unknowns, it is better to assume the worst and then scale back as needed. We may find out it’s rate averaged out is closer to a bad flu, but in hotspots with overrun medical care, that number could be relatively higher.
Last edited by TER; 04-05-2020 at 03:07 PM.
+'These things I command you, that you love one another.' - Jesus Christ
Lol, no the case mortality rate.. apples to apples.. I've heard case mortality rates from the flu as high as 10% and that 1 in 161 people who get the flu get tested, which puts you at about a 0.1% fatality rate.
The case mortality rate for Covid-19 is about 1-2%, I'm guessing the overall mortality rate is closer to the flu. But I thought you might have different numbers on the case mortality rate for the flu, I think it might be higher than Covid-19 but I can see with the current situation why more people would want to get tested for Covid-19 compared to the flu. You can go into the doctor and have the flu and just get drugs and never get tested. On the other hand, until recently it has been difficult to get tested, so it is really hard to say what the actual numbers are for this, but there doesn't seem to be much evidence it is that much worse than the flu. The people who get it bad may get it worse, and the contagion rate appears to be higher, but the overall mortality rate doesn't appear to be significantly higher..
Last edited by dannno; 04-05-2020 at 03:17 PM.
"He's talkin' to his gut like it's a person!!" -me
"dumpster diving isn't professional." - angelatc
"You don't need a medical degree to spot obvious bullshit, that's actually a separate skill." -Scott Adams
"When you are divided, and angry, and controlled, you target those 'different' from you, not those responsible [controllers]" -Q
"Each of us must choose which course of action we should take: education, conventional political action, or even peaceful civil disobedience to bring about necessary changes. But let it not be said that we did nothing." - Ron Paul
"Paul said "the wave of the future" is a coalition of anti-authoritarian progressive Democrats and libertarian Republicans in Congress opposed to domestic surveillance, opposed to starting new wars and in favor of ending the so-called War on Drugs."
Yep. The hospitalizations are worse than the virus. Even if it's only as deadly as the flu the percentage of people who get hospitalized by it is way higher. Permanent lung damage from the virus and ventilator if there is one is not fun. The death rate would be bigger due to lack of medicine and that's not even counting people who don't have Corona
It certainly doesn’t look to have the same mortality rate compared to the flu when looking at the numbers coming out of Western Europe and the US. Until we get more testing done (and importantly serological testing to see who has had it and didn’t know it which is still an unknown though I think a small relative number), it is just speculation. What we do know is that this is a true and vicious pandemic, serious and deadly, and because it is novel and there is no herd immunity, it will continue to spread and cause lots of death. Even if it’s final mortality rate is close to the flu at 0.1% (which I think is very much on the lower end because of its fast spread and overcoming of the health care system because of it being novel), if everyone gets it, that is 350,000 people dead. I don’t think that it will get that high but only because I think many states are getting better prepared and new treatment strategies are coming out every week.
+'These things I command you, that you love one another.' - Jesus Christ
The ventilators are causing more harm than good, according to this NYC ER doctor.
There is no fear in love, but perfect love casts out fear. For fear has to do with punishment, and whoever fears has not been perfected in love.
(1 John 4:18)
Well, I find this extemely horrifying and the symptoms and fatalties to people seems sporadic between walking it off to dying with complications of pneumonia.
Some places might still be quiet, but this infections moves slowly and a town that's quiet now might be full of infections that are not full blown yet.
What TER says about the kinds of initial exposure are interesting. I think airborne virus inhaled may make it deep into the base of the lungs and be more severe. I wonder if other ranging symptoms come from people ingesting it if it was on their food or they touch a surface and touched their face.
Dr. Fauci revealed his fears of a 'surprise outbreak' back in 2017 and warned the upcoming Trump administration would face 'challenges' with infectious diseases in a Georgetown speech
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...=1490&ito=1490
“The spirits of darkness are now among us. We have to be on guard so that we may realize what is happening when we encounter them and gain a real idea of where they are to be found. The most dangerous thing you can do in the immediate future will be to give yourself up unconsciously to the influences which are definitely present.” ~ Rudolf Steiner
Dr. Stephen Smith on effectiveness of hydroxychloroquine: 'I think this is the beginning of the end of the pandemic'
https://www.foxnews.com/media/dr-ste...f-the-pandemic
“The spirits of darkness are now among us. We have to be on guard so that we may realize what is happening when we encounter them and gain a real idea of where they are to be found. The most dangerous thing you can do in the immediate future will be to give yourself up unconsciously to the influences which are definitely present.” ~ Rudolf Steiner
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