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Last edited by presence; 03-31-2020 at 09:56 PM.
'We endorse the idea of voluntarism; self-responsibility: Family, friends, and churches to solve problems, rather than saying that some monolithic government is going to make you take care of yourself and be a better person. It's a preposterous notion: It never worked, it never will. The government can't make you a better person; it can't make you follow good habits.' - Ron Paul 1988
Awareness is the Root of Liberation Revolution is Action upon Revelation
'Resistance and Disobedience in Economic Activity is the Most Moral Human Action Possible' - SEK3
Flectere si nequeo superos, Acheronta movebo.
...the familiar ritual of institutional self-absolution...
...for protecting them, by mock trial, from punishment...
On that site I do not see a way to display past 30 days. Is that your > 30 day interpretation ?
Your modeling is that one million will die over the next 25 days?
And that in a span of eight days it will go from 1 million infected to 100 million infected?
yes just image editor linear interpolation of this:
'We endorse the idea of voluntarism; self-responsibility: Family, friends, and churches to solve problems, rather than saying that some monolithic government is going to make you take care of yourself and be a better person. It's a preposterous notion: It never worked, it never will. The government can't make you a better person; it can't make you follow good habits.' - Ron Paul 1988
Awareness is the Root of Liberation Revolution is Action upon Revelation
'Resistance and Disobedience in Economic Activity is the Most Moral Human Action Possible' - SEK3
Flectere si nequeo superos, Acheronta movebo.
...the familiar ritual of institutional self-absolution...
...for protecting them, by mock trial, from punishment...
'We endorse the idea of voluntarism; self-responsibility: Family, friends, and churches to solve problems, rather than saying that some monolithic government is going to make you take care of yourself and be a better person. It's a preposterous notion: It never worked, it never will. The government can't make you a better person; it can't make you follow good habits.' - Ron Paul 1988
Awareness is the Root of Liberation Revolution is Action upon Revelation
'Resistance and Disobedience in Economic Activity is the Most Moral Human Action Possible' - SEK3
Flectere si nequeo superos, Acheronta movebo.
...the familiar ritual of institutional self-absolution...
...for protecting them, by mock trial, from punishment...
The assumption is that this virus has been here for as long as it has elsewhere or how would you explain the data sets for countries that are a month or more advanced in the progression of this disease not having realized these figures?
And granted, the Chinese numbers are most certainly $#@!.
Wouldn’t it also be the case that more sparsely populated regions aren’t going to see projected growth figures in line with New York?
Modeling based primarily on NYC or greater New York and then extrapolated upon the whole of society seems flawed from the get go.
And then too for people who are asymptomatic or untested due to a lack of severity in their symptoms who are uncounted, wouldn’t the numbers you’ve used all be effectually skewed?
the only assumption is that the line of best fit on logarithmic scale points as it points.
if you look at death toll is actually concave UP from linear on log scale.
that means the dead are piling up faster; its a "hyperbolic" curve,
so the log linear projection is conservative on the 30 day derivative terms
Last edited by presence; 03-31-2020 at 10:04 PM.
'We endorse the idea of voluntarism; self-responsibility: Family, friends, and churches to solve problems, rather than saying that some monolithic government is going to make you take care of yourself and be a better person. It's a preposterous notion: It never worked, it never will. The government can't make you a better person; it can't make you follow good habits.' - Ron Paul 1988
Awareness is the Root of Liberation Revolution is Action upon Revelation
'Resistance and Disobedience in Economic Activity is the Most Moral Human Action Possible' - SEK3
Flectere si nequeo superos, Acheronta movebo.
...the familiar ritual of institutional self-absolution...
...for protecting them, by mock trial, from punishment...
'We endorse the idea of voluntarism; self-responsibility: Family, friends, and churches to solve problems, rather than saying that some monolithic government is going to make you take care of yourself and be a better person. It's a preposterous notion: It never worked, it never will. The government can't make you a better person; it can't make you follow good habits.' - Ron Paul 1988
Awareness is the Root of Liberation Revolution is Action upon Revelation
'Resistance and Disobedience in Economic Activity is the Most Moral Human Action Possible' - SEK3
Flectere si nequeo superos, Acheronta movebo.
...the familiar ritual of institutional self-absolution...
...for protecting them, by mock trial, from punishment...
I appreciate the response but to be fair, countries have not seen the growth as it is being or has been projected.
Obviously changes of behavior, etc. will alter trajectory.
One million cases to 100 million in a matter of eight days seems rather unimaginable.
I would be curious to have the graphs of countries in this point in time of the pandemic matched to where we are at (and then extrapolate that while keeping the graph you have created).
ETA: It would also be nice to see countries’ population densities, etc. accounted for.
I just think the data profile is incomplete and can lead to some rather unimaginable conclusions.
Not to conflate apples and oranges, but it is reminiscent of NY will be underwater by 2016, etc.
Last edited by kcchiefs6465; 03-31-2020 at 10:16 PM.
Computer algorithms all seem to be hockey sticks these days,, since that $#@! was accepted as science.
Bull$#@! will be illuminated by reality soon.
current dead 195 in Washington State,, and that includes at least one Fatal Head injury,,that tested positive on autopsy..
Most are from Old folks homes with questionable care.
Liberty is lost through complacency and a subservient mindset. When we accept or even welcome automobile checkpoints, random searches, mandatory identification cards, and paramilitary police in our streets, we have lost a vital part of our American heritage. America was born of protest, revolution, and mistrust of government. Subservient societies neither maintain nor deserve freedom for long.
Ron Paul 2004
Registered Ron Paul supporter # 2202
It's all about Freedom
at some point something will slow the trend we're on. It could be "herd immunity at 60-80%" with lots of asymptomatic people.
The diamond princess numbers are pretty telling of % that die though. I think they all got tested to get off the boat.
so 712 test positive
99 still sweating it out
10 dead
assuming the rest live if you look at the ten dead relative to the 712 that's 1.4% death rate, but lets say that's extreme of death toll; be more conservative at 1%
the average time of death is 18 days after you catch it. so you could throw in another trend line on 3/12 "how many are actually infested"
4000 "dead now" / 0.01
= 400000 "actually infected" 18 days ago!
so this will mitigate as we approach the 330,000,000 US population
but, although future "infected" and "official infected" will curve off over time,
future deaths are 18 days delayed from "curving"
so not much will change in death projection terms until late April
so on account of the fact that we actually have 40M infected right now; we an be fairly assured close to well over 100k and close to 400k will die in 18 days
Last edited by presence; 03-31-2020 at 11:15 PM.
'We endorse the idea of voluntarism; self-responsibility: Family, friends, and churches to solve problems, rather than saying that some monolithic government is going to make you take care of yourself and be a better person. It's a preposterous notion: It never worked, it never will. The government can't make you a better person; it can't make you follow good habits.' - Ron Paul 1988
Awareness is the Root of Liberation Revolution is Action upon Revelation
'Resistance and Disobedience in Economic Activity is the Most Moral Human Action Possible' - SEK3
Flectere si nequeo superos, Acheronta movebo.
...the familiar ritual of institutional self-absolution...
...for protecting them, by mock trial, from punishment...
Liberty is lost through complacency and a subservient mindset. When we accept or even welcome automobile checkpoints, random searches, mandatory identification cards, and paramilitary police in our streets, we have lost a vital part of our American heritage. America was born of protest, revolution, and mistrust of government. Subservient societies neither maintain nor deserve freedom for long.
Ron Paul 2004
Registered Ron Paul supporter # 2202
It's all about Freedom
@presence
Are you seriously presenting Known Liars and Liars Projections as factual information?
or are you just presenting the obvious lies as documentation?
It is hard to tell.
Liberty is lost through complacency and a subservient mindset. When we accept or even welcome automobile checkpoints, random searches, mandatory identification cards, and paramilitary police in our streets, we have lost a vital part of our American heritage. America was born of protest, revolution, and mistrust of government. Subservient societies neither maintain nor deserve freedom for long.
Ron Paul 2004
Registered Ron Paul supporter # 2202
It's all about Freedom
There are so many unknowns that any model inevitably has a huge margin of error, no offense OP:
1. some variables that the goverment or any human for that matter can NOT influence
What is the quota of assymptomatic patients, ie what is the actual number of infected, not the number of tested?
How are environmental effects (temperature and humidity) affecting the spread?
How is pollution affecting the death rate?
How are genes, including blood type, affecting the death rate?
Why are men representing 60-70% of deaths?
What is the age pyramid looking like in a given area?
Spread of pre-exisiting conditions, including obesity and smoking, in a given population?
2. Variables that the goverment or any other human can/could influence:
Social distancing?
Proliferation of masks?
Hygiene/disinfection of surfaces and hands?
Quality of health care, including prevention?
And on a more fundamental point: just because a person tests positive does not mean that their actual cause of death is the virus. In Italy, the first 2500 deaths had 99.2% pre-existing conditions.
Does anyone else think the U.S. gov't has confirmed and/or have their own estimates of how many really died in China and that's why they've jumped up their estimates?
Welcome to the R3VOLUTION!
Dr Birx (Trumps advisor) based her projections solely on Italy in yesterday's press conference. The Italian numbers are probably not falsified (contrary to the Chines), but still, why pick the worst possible country and not include countries like Germany that have much lower numbers on a per capita basis.
This guy is doing a lot of interesting statistical graphs.
"Foreign aid is taking money from the poor people of a rich country, and giving it to the rich people of a poor country." - Ron Paul
"Beware the Military-Industrial-Financial-Pharma-Corporate-Internet-Media-Government Complex." - B4L update of General Dwight D. Eisenhower
"Debt is the drug, Wall St. Banksters are the dealers, and politicians are the addicts." - B4L
"Totally free immigration? I've never taken that position. I believe in national sovereignty." - Ron Paul
Proponent of real science.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own, and do not represent this forum or any other entities or persons.
Per registered decision, member has been banned for violating community standards as interpreted by TheTexan (respect his authoritah) as authorized by Brian4Liberty Ruling
May God have mercy on his atheist, police-hating, non-voting, anarchist soul.
Last edited by Voluntarist; 06-07-2020 at 03:01 PM.
You have the right to remain silent. Anything you post to the internet can and will be used to humiliate you.
Do any model take into account the large % of adults that are already immune..
I have already had a lot of coronavirus variations over the years..
averaged out and a conservative estimate would be something over 120 variants. I am immune to those..
Also Immune to Chicken Pox.. Immune to Scarlet fever. pretty resistant to Brown Recluse.
Does not count the massive vaccination dosage for overseas deployment I got in mid 70s.
Liberty is lost through complacency and a subservient mindset. When we accept or even welcome automobile checkpoints, random searches, mandatory identification cards, and paramilitary police in our streets, we have lost a vital part of our American heritage. America was born of protest, revolution, and mistrust of government. Subservient societies neither maintain nor deserve freedom for long.
Ron Paul 2004
Registered Ron Paul supporter # 2202
It's all about Freedom
"He's talkin' to his gut like it's a person!!" -me
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"You don't need a medical degree to spot obvious bullshit, that's actually a separate skill." -Scott Adams
"When you are divided, and angry, and controlled, you target those 'different' from you, not those responsible [controllers]" -Q
"Each of us must choose which course of action we should take: education, conventional political action, or even peaceful civil disobedience to bring about necessary changes. But let it not be said that we did nothing." - Ron Paul
"Paul said "the wave of the future" is a coalition of anti-authoritarian progressive Democrats and libertarian Republicans in Congress opposed to domestic surveillance, opposed to starting new wars and in favor of ending the so-called War on Drugs."
Liberty is lost through complacency and a subservient mindset. When we accept or even welcome automobile checkpoints, random searches, mandatory identification cards, and paramilitary police in our streets, we have lost a vital part of our American heritage. America was born of protest, revolution, and mistrust of government. Subservient societies neither maintain nor deserve freedom for long.
Ron Paul 2004
Registered Ron Paul supporter # 2202
It's all about Freedom
100,000 dead by 4/14/20.
That is twice the American death toll of Vietnam War.
Three times more than died in Korea.
Approximately the same American death toll for WW 1.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United...ualties_of_war
The Creature from Jekyll Island:
We're being governed ruled by a geriatric Alzheimer patient/puppet whose strings are being pulled by an elitist oligarchy who believe they can manage the world... imagine the utter maniacal, sociopathic hubris!
Per registered decision, member has been banned for violating community standards as interpreted by TheTexan (respect his authoritah) as authorized by Brian4Liberty Ruling
May God have mercy on his atheist, police-hating, non-voting, anarchist soul.
Last edited by Voluntarist; 06-07-2020 at 03:02 PM.
You have the right to remain silent. Anything you post to the internet can and will be used to humiliate you.
Last edited by presence; 04-04-2020 at 10:32 AM.
'We endorse the idea of voluntarism; self-responsibility: Family, friends, and churches to solve problems, rather than saying that some monolithic government is going to make you take care of yourself and be a better person. It's a preposterous notion: It never worked, it never will. The government can't make you a better person; it can't make you follow good habits.' - Ron Paul 1988
Awareness is the Root of Liberation Revolution is Action upon Revelation
'Resistance and Disobedience in Economic Activity is the Most Moral Human Action Possible' - SEK3
Flectere si nequeo superos, Acheronta movebo.
...the familiar ritual of institutional self-absolution...
...for protecting them, by mock trial, from punishment...
Question: did these 10 deaths occur on the boat, or in hospitals?
There are two other cruise ships (as of yesterday according to the Trump press conference) that have been waiting for some time to get off the ship and go home.
Has anybody on either of those two ships died on the ship?
Or are all these people only dying once they go to the hospital?
There is no fear in love, but perfect love casts out fear. For fear has to do with punishment, and whoever fears has not been perfected in love.
(1 John 4:18)
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