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Thread: Log Interpolation of US Covid-19 Body Count for April

  1. #1

    Log Interpolation of US Covid-19 Body Count for April

    Last edited by presence; 03-31-2020 at 09:56 PM.

    'We endorse the idea of voluntarism; self-responsibility: Family, friends, and churches to solve problems, rather than saying that some monolithic government is going to make you take care of yourself and be a better person. It's a preposterous notion: It never worked, it never will. The government can't make you a better person; it can't make you follow good habits.' - Ron Paul 1988

    Awareness is the Root of Liberation Revolution is Action upon Revelation

    'Resistance and Disobedience in Economic Activity is the Most Moral Human Action Possible' - SEK3

    Flectere si nequeo superos, Acheronta movebo.

    ...the familiar ritual of institutional self-absolution...
    ...for protecting them, by mock trial, from punishment...




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  3. #2
    On that site I do not see a way to display past 30 days. Is that your > 30 day interpretation ?

  4. #3
    Your modeling is that one million will die over the next 25 days?

    And that in a span of eight days it will go from 1 million infected to 100 million infected?
    “The nationalist not only does not disapprove of atrocities committed by his own side, but he has a remarkable capacity for not even hearing about them.” --George Orwell

    Quote Originally Posted by AuH20 View Post
    In terms of a full spectrum candidate, Rand is leaps and bounds above Trump. I'm not disputing that.
    Who else in public life has called for a pre-emptive strike on North Korea?--Donald Trump

  5. #4
    yes just image editor linear interpolation of this:


    'We endorse the idea of voluntarism; self-responsibility: Family, friends, and churches to solve problems, rather than saying that some monolithic government is going to make you take care of yourself and be a better person. It's a preposterous notion: It never worked, it never will. The government can't make you a better person; it can't make you follow good habits.' - Ron Paul 1988

    Awareness is the Root of Liberation Revolution is Action upon Revelation

    'Resistance and Disobedience in Economic Activity is the Most Moral Human Action Possible' - SEK3

    Flectere si nequeo superos, Acheronta movebo.

    ...the familiar ritual of institutional self-absolution...
    ...for protecting them, by mock trial, from punishment...


  6. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by kcchiefs6465 View Post
    Your modeling is that one million will die over the next 25 days?

    And that in a span of eight days it will go from 1 million infected to 100 million infected?
    yes that's correct

    'We endorse the idea of voluntarism; self-responsibility: Family, friends, and churches to solve problems, rather than saying that some monolithic government is going to make you take care of yourself and be a better person. It's a preposterous notion: It never worked, it never will. The government can't make you a better person; it can't make you follow good habits.' - Ron Paul 1988

    Awareness is the Root of Liberation Revolution is Action upon Revelation

    'Resistance and Disobedience in Economic Activity is the Most Moral Human Action Possible' - SEK3

    Flectere si nequeo superos, Acheronta movebo.

    ...the familiar ritual of institutional self-absolution...
    ...for protecting them, by mock trial, from punishment...


  7. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by presence View Post
    yes that's correct
    The assumption is that this virus has been here for as long as it has elsewhere or how would you explain the data sets for countries that are a month or more advanced in the progression of this disease not having realized these figures?

    And granted, the Chinese numbers are most certainly $#@!.
    “The nationalist not only does not disapprove of atrocities committed by his own side, but he has a remarkable capacity for not even hearing about them.” --George Orwell

    Quote Originally Posted by AuH20 View Post
    In terms of a full spectrum candidate, Rand is leaps and bounds above Trump. I'm not disputing that.
    Who else in public life has called for a pre-emptive strike on North Korea?--Donald Trump

  8. #7
    Wouldn’t it also be the case that more sparsely populated regions aren’t going to see projected growth figures in line with New York?

    Modeling based primarily on NYC or greater New York and then extrapolated upon the whole of society seems flawed from the get go.
    “The nationalist not only does not disapprove of atrocities committed by his own side, but he has a remarkable capacity for not even hearing about them.” --George Orwell

    Quote Originally Posted by AuH20 View Post
    In terms of a full spectrum candidate, Rand is leaps and bounds above Trump. I'm not disputing that.
    Who else in public life has called for a pre-emptive strike on North Korea?--Donald Trump

  9. #8
    And then too for people who are asymptomatic or untested due to a lack of severity in their symptoms who are uncounted, wouldn’t the numbers you’ve used all be effectually skewed?
    “The nationalist not only does not disapprove of atrocities committed by his own side, but he has a remarkable capacity for not even hearing about them.” --George Orwell

    Quote Originally Posted by AuH20 View Post
    In terms of a full spectrum candidate, Rand is leaps and bounds above Trump. I'm not disputing that.
    Who else in public life has called for a pre-emptive strike on North Korea?--Donald Trump



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  11. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by kcchiefs6465 View Post
    The assumption is
    the only assumption is that the line of best fit on logarithmic scale points as it points.

    if you look at death toll is actually concave UP from linear on log scale.

    that means the dead are piling up faster; its a "hyperbolic" curve,

    so the log linear projection is conservative on the 30 day derivative terms
    Last edited by presence; 03-31-2020 at 10:04 PM.

    'We endorse the idea of voluntarism; self-responsibility: Family, friends, and churches to solve problems, rather than saying that some monolithic government is going to make you take care of yourself and be a better person. It's a preposterous notion: It never worked, it never will. The government can't make you a better person; it can't make you follow good habits.' - Ron Paul 1988

    Awareness is the Root of Liberation Revolution is Action upon Revelation

    'Resistance and Disobedience in Economic Activity is the Most Moral Human Action Possible' - SEK3

    Flectere si nequeo superos, Acheronta movebo.

    ...the familiar ritual of institutional self-absolution...
    ...for protecting them, by mock trial, from punishment...


  12. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by kcchiefs6465 View Post
    Wouldn’t it also be the case that more sparsely populated regions aren’t going to see projected growth figures in line with New York?

    Modeling based primarily on NYC or greater New York and then extrapolated upon the whole of society seems flawed from the get go.
    well there's always this, so we shall see:


    'We endorse the idea of voluntarism; self-responsibility: Family, friends, and churches to solve problems, rather than saying that some monolithic government is going to make you take care of yourself and be a better person. It's a preposterous notion: It never worked, it never will. The government can't make you a better person; it can't make you follow good habits.' - Ron Paul 1988

    Awareness is the Root of Liberation Revolution is Action upon Revelation

    'Resistance and Disobedience in Economic Activity is the Most Moral Human Action Possible' - SEK3

    Flectere si nequeo superos, Acheronta movebo.

    ...the familiar ritual of institutional self-absolution...
    ...for protecting them, by mock trial, from punishment...


  13. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by presence View Post
    the only assumption is that the line of best fit on logarithmic scale points as it points.

    if you look at death toll is actually concave UP from linear on log scale.

    that means the dead are piling up faster than linear on log

    its a "hyperbolic" curve, so the log linear projection is conservative on the 30 day derivative terms
    I appreciate the response but to be fair, countries have not seen the growth as it is being or has been projected.

    Obviously changes of behavior, etc. will alter trajectory.

    One million cases to 100 million in a matter of eight days seems rather unimaginable.

    I would be curious to have the graphs of countries in this point in time of the pandemic matched to where we are at (and then extrapolate that while keeping the graph you have created).

    ETA: It would also be nice to see countries’ population densities, etc. accounted for.

    I just think the data profile is incomplete and can lead to some rather unimaginable conclusions.

    Not to conflate apples and oranges, but it is reminiscent of NY will be underwater by 2016, etc.
    Last edited by kcchiefs6465; 03-31-2020 at 10:16 PM.
    “The nationalist not only does not disapprove of atrocities committed by his own side, but he has a remarkable capacity for not even hearing about them.” --George Orwell

    Quote Originally Posted by AuH20 View Post
    In terms of a full spectrum candidate, Rand is leaps and bounds above Trump. I'm not disputing that.
    Who else in public life has called for a pre-emptive strike on North Korea?--Donald Trump

  14. #12
    Computer algorithms all seem to be hockey sticks these days,, since that $#@! was accepted as science.

    Bull$#@! will be illuminated by reality soon.

    current dead 195 in Washington State,, and that includes at least one Fatal Head injury,,that tested positive on autopsy..

    Most are from Old folks homes with questionable care.
    Liberty is lost through complacency and a subservient mindset. When we accept or even welcome automobile checkpoints, random searches, mandatory identification cards, and paramilitary police in our streets, we have lost a vital part of our American heritage. America was born of protest, revolution, and mistrust of government. Subservient societies neither maintain nor deserve freedom for long.
    Ron Paul 2004

    Registered Ron Paul supporter # 2202
    It's all about Freedom

  15. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by kcchiefs6465 View Post
    I appreciate the response but to be fair, countries have not seen the growth as it is being or has been projected.

    Obviously changes of behavior, etc. will alter trajectory.

    One million cases to 100 million in a matter of eight days seems rather unimaginable.

    I would be curious to have the graphs of countries in this point in time of the pandemic matched to where we are at (and then extrapolate that while keeping the graph you have created).

    ETA: It would also be nice to see countries’ population densities, etc. accounted for.

    I just think the data profile is incomplete and can lead to some rather unimaginable conclusions.

    Not to conflate apples and oranges, but it is reminiscent of NY will be underwater by 2016, etc.
    100 million cases that soon is not even possible because we won't have that many tests available.

  16. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by kcchiefs6465 View Post
    And then too for people who are asymptomatic or untested due to a lack of severity in their symptoms who are uncounted, wouldn’t the numbers you’ve used all be effectually skewed?
    at some point something will slow the trend we're on. It could be "herd immunity at 60-80%" with lots of asymptomatic people.

    The diamond princess numbers are pretty telling of % that die though. I think they all got tested to get off the boat.

    so 712 test positive
    99 still sweating it out
    10 dead

    assuming the rest live if you look at the ten dead relative to the 712 that's 1.4% death rate, but lets say that's extreme of death toll; be more conservative at 1%

    the average time of death is 18 days after you catch it. so you could throw in another trend line on 3/12 "how many are actually infested"

    4000 "dead now" / 0.01

    = 400000 "actually infected" 18 days ago!

    so this will mitigate as we approach the 330,000,000 US population

    but, although future "infected" and "official infected" will curve off over time,

    future deaths are 18 days delayed from "curving"

    so not much will change in death projection terms until late April




    so on account of the fact that we actually have 40M infected right now; we an be fairly assured close to well over 100k and close to 400k will die in 18 days
    Last edited by presence; 03-31-2020 at 11:15 PM.

    'We endorse the idea of voluntarism; self-responsibility: Family, friends, and churches to solve problems, rather than saying that some monolithic government is going to make you take care of yourself and be a better person. It's a preposterous notion: It never worked, it never will. The government can't make you a better person; it can't make you follow good habits.' - Ron Paul 1988

    Awareness is the Root of Liberation Revolution is Action upon Revelation

    'Resistance and Disobedience in Economic Activity is the Most Moral Human Action Possible' - SEK3

    Flectere si nequeo superos, Acheronta movebo.

    ...the familiar ritual of institutional self-absolution...
    ...for protecting them, by mock trial, from punishment...


  17. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by presence View Post
    yes that's correct
    Sounds like the Hockey Stick algorithm

    are you sure that is correct?

    why is algorithm so much like ALGOREithm?
    Liberty is lost through complacency and a subservient mindset. When we accept or even welcome automobile checkpoints, random searches, mandatory identification cards, and paramilitary police in our streets, we have lost a vital part of our American heritage. America was born of protest, revolution, and mistrust of government. Subservient societies neither maintain nor deserve freedom for long.
    Ron Paul 2004

    Registered Ron Paul supporter # 2202
    It's all about Freedom

  18. #16
    @presence

    Are you seriously presenting Known Liars and Liars Projections as factual information?

    or are you just presenting the obvious lies as documentation?

    It is hard to tell.
    Liberty is lost through complacency and a subservient mindset. When we accept or even welcome automobile checkpoints, random searches, mandatory identification cards, and paramilitary police in our streets, we have lost a vital part of our American heritage. America was born of protest, revolution, and mistrust of government. Subservient societies neither maintain nor deserve freedom for long.
    Ron Paul 2004

    Registered Ron Paul supporter # 2202
    It's all about Freedom



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  20. #17

  21. #18
    There are so many unknowns that any model inevitably has a huge margin of error, no offense OP:

    1. some variables that the goverment or any human for that matter can NOT influence
    What is the quota of assymptomatic patients, ie what is the actual number of infected, not the number of tested?
    How are environmental effects (temperature and humidity) affecting the spread?
    How is pollution affecting the death rate?
    How are genes, including blood type, affecting the death rate?
    Why are men representing 60-70% of deaths?
    What is the age pyramid looking like in a given area?
    Spread of pre-exisiting conditions, including obesity and smoking, in a given population?

    2. Variables that the goverment or any other human can/could influence:
    Social distancing?
    Proliferation of masks?
    Hygiene/disinfection of surfaces and hands?
    Quality of health care, including prevention?

    And on a more fundamental point: just because a person tests positive does not mean that their actual cause of death is the virus. In Italy, the first 2500 deaths had 99.2% pre-existing conditions.

  22. #19
    Does anyone else think the U.S. gov't has confirmed and/or have their own estimates of how many really died in China and that's why they've jumped up their estimates?
    Welcome to the R3VOLUTION!

  23. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by Okie RP fan View Post
    Does anyone else think the U.S. gov't has confirmed and/or have their own estimates of how many really died in China and that's why they've jumped up their estimates?
    Dr Birx (Trumps advisor) based her projections solely on Italy in yesterday's press conference. The Italian numbers are probably not falsified (contrary to the Chines), but still, why pick the worst possible country and not include countries like Germany that have much lower numbers on a per capita basis.

  24. #21
    This guy is doing a lot of interesting statistical graphs.


    https://twitter.com/TEDTalks/status/1245121414090416129
    "Foreign aid is taking money from the poor people of a rich country, and giving it to the rich people of a poor country." - Ron Paul
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    The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own, and do not represent this forum or any other entities or persons.

  25. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty View Post
    This guy is doing a lot of interesting statistical graphs.
    You may want to check out some notes on the prediction model I'm following:

    A total of 93,765 US COVID-19 deaths (range of 41,399 to 177,381) are currently predicted through the epidemic’s first wave.
    So, have you heard any of our overlords mentioning multiple waves yet? You see, the models are based upon the population being divided into several categories of people:
    1) Those who are infected (and can pass the infection on to others)
    2) Those who are susceptible to infection
    Which includes two sub-categories:
    a) Those out in the public who are in contact with the infected
    b) Those under house arrest who are far less likely to pick up the infection
    3) Those who can't be infected (and can no longer pass the infection on to others)
    a) Those who are vaccinated (sorry, don't have a vaccine yet, so no one in this sub-category)
    b) Those who have survived the disease, and are immune
    c) Those who have died - and won't be playing the game any longer
    Once the "2b category is released from custody, they'll be eligible for infection in round two. One has to ask how many rounds will be necessary to build up a herd immunity in a population of 330 million.
    There exists in the world, a desperate need for conspiracies … otherwise, what are the libertarians going to have to talk about

    Four more years? Sorry, I'm just a bit weary from all the winning of the previous four.

  26. #23
    Do any model take into account the large % of adults that are already immune..

    I have already had a lot of coronavirus variations over the years..

    averaged out and a conservative estimate would be something over 120 variants. I am immune to those..
    Also Immune to Chicken Pox.. Immune to Scarlet fever. pretty resistant to Brown Recluse.

    Does not count the massive vaccination dosage for overseas deployment I got in mid 70s.
    Liberty is lost through complacency and a subservient mindset. When we accept or even welcome automobile checkpoints, random searches, mandatory identification cards, and paramilitary police in our streets, we have lost a vital part of our American heritage. America was born of protest, revolution, and mistrust of government. Subservient societies neither maintain nor deserve freedom for long.
    Ron Paul 2004

    Registered Ron Paul supporter # 2202
    It's all about Freedom

  27. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by presence View Post
    The diamond princess numbers are pretty telling of % that die though. I think they all got tested to get off the boat.

    so 712 test positive
    99 still sweating it out
    10 dead

    assuming the rest live if you look at the ten dead relative to the 712 that's 1.4% death rate, but lets say that's extreme of death toll; be more conservative at 1%
    Weren't they mostly old people?
    "He's talkin' to his gut like it's a person!!" -me
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    "Each of us must choose which course of action we should take: education, conventional political action, or even peaceful civil disobedience to bring about necessary changes. But let it not be said that we did nothing." - Ron Paul

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  29. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by dannno View Post
    Weren't they mostly old people?
    The first dozen, WIDELY REPORTED, in Washington St were all in a single care facility,, branching out from there.

    Poor care or wrong care for a Cold is deadly to those already compromised.
    Liberty is lost through complacency and a subservient mindset. When we accept or even welcome automobile checkpoints, random searches, mandatory identification cards, and paramilitary police in our streets, we have lost a vital part of our American heritage. America was born of protest, revolution, and mistrust of government. Subservient societies neither maintain nor deserve freedom for long.
    Ron Paul 2004

    Registered Ron Paul supporter # 2202
    It's all about Freedom

  30. #26
    100,000 dead by 4/14/20.

    That is twice the American death toll of Vietnam War.
    Three times more than died in Korea.
    Approximately the same American death toll for WW 1.


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United...ualties_of_war
    When life itself seems lunatic, who knows where madness lies? - Miguel de Cervantes, (Don Quixote)

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    The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the Federal Reserve Notes of patriotic central banks

  31. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by Pauls' Revere View Post
    100,000 dead by 4/14/20.
    The prediction model I'm following is at: https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
    It's been updated periodically, and over the last day or two has moved the US Death Peak out to 16APR - on which it expects 2,644 to die (for a total of slightly over 35,000). It had been down in the 20,000 range for total death count by that point. The error envelope on this thing is huge though (24,000 - almost 46,000).
    There exists in the world, a desperate need for conspiracies … otherwise, what are the libertarians going to have to talk about

    Four more years? Sorry, I'm just a bit weary from all the winning of the previous four.

  32. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by presence View Post






    well there's the first mile marker
    10k dead in few days...

    Last edited by presence; 04-04-2020 at 10:32 AM.

    'We endorse the idea of voluntarism; self-responsibility: Family, friends, and churches to solve problems, rather than saying that some monolithic government is going to make you take care of yourself and be a better person. It's a preposterous notion: It never worked, it never will. The government can't make you a better person; it can't make you follow good habits.' - Ron Paul 1988

    Awareness is the Root of Liberation Revolution is Action upon Revelation

    'Resistance and Disobedience in Economic Activity is the Most Moral Human Action Possible' - SEK3

    Flectere si nequeo superos, Acheronta movebo.

    ...the familiar ritual of institutional self-absolution...
    ...for protecting them, by mock trial, from punishment...


  33. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by presence View Post

    The diamond princess numbers are pretty telling of % that die though. I think they all got tested to get off the boat.

    so 712 test positive
    99 still sweating it out
    10 dead
    Question: did these 10 deaths occur on the boat, or in hospitals?

    There are two other cruise ships (as of yesterday according to the Trump press conference) that have been waiting for some time to get off the ship and go home.

    Has anybody on either of those two ships died on the ship?

    Or are all these people only dying once they go to the hospital?
    There is no fear in love, but perfect love casts out fear. For fear has to do with punishment, and whoever fears has not been perfected in love.
    (1 John 4:18)

  34. #30
    Bump.
    “The nationalist not only does not disapprove of atrocities committed by his own side, but he has a remarkable capacity for not even hearing about them.” --George Orwell

    Quote Originally Posted by AuH20 View Post
    In terms of a full spectrum candidate, Rand is leaps and bounds above Trump. I'm not disputing that.
    Who else in public life has called for a pre-emptive strike on North Korea?--Donald Trump



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