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Thread: What is herd immunity and can it stop the coronavirus?

  1. #1

    What is herd immunity and can it stop the coronavirus?

    Hmmm....so according to this article from MIT technology review the fatality rate is about 1%? Why do I keep hearing over 3%?

    https://www.technologyreview.com/s/6...e-coronavirus/

    What is herd immunity and can it stop the coronavirus?
    Once enough people get Covid-19, it will stop spreading on its own. But the costs will be devastating.
    by Antonio Regalado
    Mar 17, 2020
    There are basically three ways to stop the Covid-19 disease for good. One involves extraordinary restrictions on free movement and assembly, as well as aggressive testing, to interrupt its transmission entirely. That may be impossible now that the virus is in over 100 countries. The second is a vaccine that could protect everyone, but it still needs to be developed.

    A third is potentially effective but horrible to consider: just wait until enough people get it.

    If the virus keeps spreading, eventually so many people will have been infected and (if they survive) become immune that the outbreak will fizzle out on its own as the germ finds it harder and harder to find a susceptible host. This phenomenon is known as herd immunity.

    You can read all our coverage of the coronavirus/Covid-19 outbreak for free, and also sign up for our coronavirus newsletter. But please consider subscribing to support our nonprofit journalism.

    Wide, unstoppable spread of the coronavirus is exactly an outcome experts are modeling in their worst-case scenarios. They say that given what they know about the virus, it could end up infecting about 60% of the world’s population, even within the year.

    Those figures aren’t a random guess. They are informed by the point at which epidemiologists say herd immunity should kick in for this particular virus.

    Last week the herd immunity idea blew up in the headlines after UK prime minister Boris Johnson indicated that country’s official strategy might be to put on a stiff upper lip and let the disease run its course. The chief science adviser to the UK government, Patrick Vallance, said the country needed to “build up some kind of herd immunity so more people are immune to this disease and we reduce the transmission.”

    Yesterday, the prime minister of the Netherlands, Mark Rutte, struck a similar note, saying, “We can slow down the spread of the virus while at the same time building group immunity in a controlled way.”

    But shooting for herd immunity right away would be a disastrous strategy, according to the newest models. That’s because so many people will become severely ill—and a sudden boom in sick people needing hospital or ICU care will overwhelm hospitals. The UK this week signaled it would instead do more to suppress the virus, including discouraging gatherings. Slowing it down would mean health systems could be spared and lives saved, but ultimately the result could be the same. That is, even if the pandemic is drawn out over time, it may still take herd immunity to bring it to an end.

    As Matt Hancock, the UK Secretary for health and social care, clarified after criticism of the UK government: “Herd immunity is not our goal or policy. It’s a scientific concept.”

    But what exactly is herd immunity?
    When enough of the population is resistant to a germ, its spread stops naturally because not enough people are able to transmit it. Thus, the “herd” is immune, even though many individuals within it still are not.

    Although it is ghastly to contemplate the prospect of billions being infected by the coronavirus, which has an estimated fatality rate per infection somewhere around 1% (pdf) (that too is uncertain, and the fatality rate of cases rushed to the hospital is higher), we’ve seen evidence for the emergence of herd immunity in other recent outbreaks.

    How herd immunity can stop a virus


    Herd immunity

    In a simple model of an outbreak, each case infects two more, creating an exponential increase in disease. But once half the population is immune, an outbreak no longer grows in size.
    Consider the Zika virus, a mosquito-borne illness that caused a epidemic panic in 2015 because of a link to birth abnormalities.

    Two years later, in 2017, there was no longer nearly so much to worry about. A Brazilian study found by checking blood samples that 63% of the population in the northeastern beach city of Salvador had already had exposure to Zika; the researchers speculated that herd immunity had broken that outbreak.

    Vaccines create herd immunity too, either when given widely or sometimes when administered in a “ring” around a new case of a rare infection. That’s how diseases like smallpox were eradicated and why polio is close to being erased. Various vaccine efforts are under way for this coronavirus, but they may not be ready for more than a year.

    Even then, vaccine makers can find themselves in a losing race with nature to see which protects the herd first. That’s in part what happened in 2017, when drug maker Sanofi quietly abandoned a Zika vaccine in development after funding dried up: there simply wasn’t much of a market any longer.

    The coronavirus is new, so it doesn’t appear that anyone is immune to it: that’s what lets it spread and why it can have such severe effects in some people.

    For herd immunity to take hold, people must become resistant after they are infected. That occurs with many germs: people who are infected and recover become resistant to getting that disease again, because their immune system is charged with antibodies able to defeat it.
    9/11 Thermate experiments

    Winston Churchhill on why the U.S. should have stayed OUT of World War I

    "I am so %^&*^ sick of this cult of Ron Paul. The Paulites. What is with these %^&*^ people? Why are there so many of them?" YouTube rant by "TheAmazingAtheist"

    "We as a country have lost faith and confidence in freedom." -- Ron Paul

    "It can be a challenge to follow the pronouncements of President Trump, as he often seems to change his position on any number of items from week to week, or from day to day, or even from minute to minute." -- Ron Paul
    Quote Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty View Post
    The road to hell is paved with good intentions. No need to make it a superhighway.
    Quote Originally Posted by osan View Post
    The only way I see Trump as likely to affect any real change would be through martial law, and that has zero chances of success without strong buy-in by the JCS at the very minimum.



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  3. #2
    At this point, herd immunity is the default option, which means it will spread widely. Measures taking place now are to prevent 100% infection rate, and to prevent spikes in infections which will overload the hospitals, crematoriums and funeral homes.

    Flattening the curve just makes herd immunity take longer.
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  4. #3
    All the steps we are taking are simple to slow the infection rate.

    It's my understanding MOST PEOPLE WILL GET THIS.

    Slowing the rate takes strain off healthcare, allows more time for "late bloomers" to possibly get a vaccine or better treatment, and simply allows more time for economic adjustment and people to reposition. My wife is pregnant, due in October, so the later (ideally not at all) she possibly develops a fever is better.

    Herd immunity is simply what eventually happens. "Chicken pox" party thinking works because typically the parents already have herd immunity. It definitely is unwise mainly because the healthcare system cannot handle it, and given that China is our only data source for death rate, we really don't have numbers.

    There's a lot of "rugged individualist" thinking in my social circles. "Cull the herd". People that will die are probably old or weak, etc.

    Some of the "old" also don't give a crap. I know people who are still planning to go to Mexico for vacations and all sorts of other examples. This is also the problem in Spain and Italy (which now officially has more dead than China). Westerners are gonna do what they want to do.

    Admittedly, we are trusting numbers that are hardly verified and somewhat unverifiable (Kansas has less than 500 tests. We will be out by the weekend without a resupply).

    I don't know. This is a perfect storm of culture clash, binary thinking, shaky healthcare system, Just-in-time inventory based supply lines and a whole host of other $#@!.

    Americans by and large are simply self-absorbed and uneducated. They were never going to pull together in any crisis. A crisis that involves math and reading even less so, so while we may be indignant it really isn't all that surprising what is occuring.

    -wiz (FEMA Region 7)
    When a trumpet sounds in a city, do not the people tremble?
    When disaster comes to a city, has not the Lord caused it? Amos 3:6

  5. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by wizardwatson View Post
    All the steps we are taking are simple to slow the infection rate.

    It's my understanding MOST PEOPLE WILL GET THIS.

    Slowing the rate takes strain off healthcare, allows more time for "late bloomers" to possibly get a vaccine or better treatment, and simply allows more time for economic adjustment and people to reposition. My wife is pregnant, due in October, so the later (ideally not at all) she possibly develops a fever is better.

    Herd immunity is simply what eventually happens. "Chicken pox" party thinking works because typically the parents already have herd immunity. It definitely is unwise mainly because the healthcare system cannot handle it, and given that China is our only data source for death rate, we really don't have numbers.

    There's a lot of "rugged individualist" thinking in my social circles. "Cull the herd". People that will die are probably old or weak, etc.

    Some of the "old" also don't give a crap. I know people who are still planning to go to Mexico for vacations and all sorts of other examples. This is also the problem in Spain and Italy (which now officially has more dead than China). Westerners are gonna do what they want to do.

    Admittedly, we are trusting numbers that are hardly verified and somewhat unverifiable (Kansas has less than 500 tests. We will be out by the weekend without a resupply).

    I don't know. This is a perfect storm of culture clash, binary thinking, shaky healthcare system, Just-in-time inventory based supply lines and a whole host of other $#@!.

    Americans by and large are simply self-absorbed and uneducated. They were never going to pull together in any crisis. A crisis that involves math and reading even less so, so while we may be indignant it really isn't all that surprising what is occuring.

    -wiz (FEMA Region 7)
    According to this paper at the CDC, the WuHan China death rate was 12% but the death rate in general is about 1%.

    https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0233_article

    Also children are much less likely to be infected and have milder symptoms when they do.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/coro...ain-why-2020-2

    So.....the chicken pox parties? They might be a good thing! Just don't let the little ones visit grandma and grandpa until they have tested negative at least a month or 2 after being exposed.
    9/11 Thermate experiments

    Winston Churchhill on why the U.S. should have stayed OUT of World War I

    "I am so %^&*^ sick of this cult of Ron Paul. The Paulites. What is with these %^&*^ people? Why are there so many of them?" YouTube rant by "TheAmazingAtheist"

    "We as a country have lost faith and confidence in freedom." -- Ron Paul

    "It can be a challenge to follow the pronouncements of President Trump, as he often seems to change his position on any number of items from week to week, or from day to day, or even from minute to minute." -- Ron Paul
    Quote Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty View Post
    The road to hell is paved with good intentions. No need to make it a superhighway.
    Quote Originally Posted by osan View Post
    The only way I see Trump as likely to affect any real change would be through martial law, and that has zero chances of success without strong buy-in by the JCS at the very minimum.

  6. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by jmdrake View Post
    According to this paper at the CDC, the WuHan China death rate was 12% but the death rate in general is about 1%.

    https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0233_article

    Also children are much less likely to be infected and have milder symptoms when they do.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/coro...ain-why-2020-2

    So.....the chicken pox parties? They might be a good thing! Just don't let the little ones visit grandma and grandpa until they have tested negative at least a month or 2 after being exposed.
    I'm not disagreeing. We need to look into all this. But the problem, right now, is people who-in their selection bias-simply look at solutions that translate into them going about their daily lives. "I agree, but I'm still gonna see grandma." Or maybe grandpa doesn't give a crap either.
    When a trumpet sounds in a city, do not the people tremble?
    When disaster comes to a city, has not the Lord caused it? Amos 3:6

  7. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by wizardwatson View Post
    I'm not disagreeing. We need to look into all this. But the problem, right now, is people who-in their selection bias-simply look at solutions that translate into them going about their daily lives. "I agree, but I'm still gonna see grandma." Or maybe grandpa doesn't give a crap either.
    Grandma and grandpa better learn to fend for themselves. My mom right now is being very slow on taking visitors. V-E-R-Y slow.
    9/11 Thermate experiments

    Winston Churchhill on why the U.S. should have stayed OUT of World War I

    "I am so %^&*^ sick of this cult of Ron Paul. The Paulites. What is with these %^&*^ people? Why are there so many of them?" YouTube rant by "TheAmazingAtheist"

    "We as a country have lost faith and confidence in freedom." -- Ron Paul

    "It can be a challenge to follow the pronouncements of President Trump, as he often seems to change his position on any number of items from week to week, or from day to day, or even from minute to minute." -- Ron Paul
    Quote Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty View Post
    The road to hell is paved with good intentions. No need to make it a superhighway.
    Quote Originally Posted by osan View Post
    The only way I see Trump as likely to affect any real change would be through martial law, and that has zero chances of success without strong buy-in by the JCS at the very minimum.

  8. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by wizardwatson View Post
    My wife is pregnant, due in October, so the later (ideally not at all) she possibly develops a fever is better.
    Watson was allowed to breed?!
    Pfizer Macht Frei!

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