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Thread: The Official Iowa Caucus Thread

  1. #1

    The Official Iowa Caucus Thread

    Please post any updates etc. in here...

    The Iowa caucuses, the first nominating contest of the 2020 election cycle, begin this week. Here's what you need to know:

    When are the Iowa caucuses?

    Monday, Feb. 3, starting at 8 p.m. ET (7 p.m. local).

    Who participates?

    Eligible voters who will be at least 18 by Election Day can participate in the caucuses. To participate in a Democratic or Republican caucus, you must be registered with the appropriate party; same-day registration is available at precinct caucus locations.

    What might turnout look like?

    Iowa Democrats are preparing for turnout to exceed the party record from 2008, when nearly 240,000 Iowans participated in the caucuses.

    Where does it all happen?

    There are a total of 1,679 precincts that will meet to caucus. The Democratic Party in Iowa will also hold a number of "satellite" caucuses (60 in state, 24 out of state and three international — in Tbilisi, Georgia; Glasgow, Scotland; and Paris, France) for those who are unable to travel to a caucus location.

    Democrats fight for lead in the final days leading up to Iowa caucuses

    There are 41 pledged delegates up for grabs in the Democratic race, plus an additional eight unpledged (superdelegates) from Iowa. (Whenever we refer to delegates for the Feb. 3 precinct caucuses, we actually mean precinct delegates to county caucuses. After county conventions are congressional district and state conventions, at which the real national convention delegates are selected.)

    OK, but how does this actually work?

    Democrats and Republicans hold their caucuses differently.

    Democrats move around the caucus site — for example, supporters of former Vice President Joe Biden will gather in one corner and backers of Sens. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts others. At most Democratic caucus locations, a candidate must get support from at least 15 percent of attendees to achieve viability. If that threshold isn't met, a candidate's supporters must realign to a different viable candidate or join with other nonviable groups to form a viable preference group. (One of those preference groups could be "uncommitted.") And the number of delegates awarded at each caucus site is determined by a mathematical formula. So get out your calculators!

    In a change from past Democratic caucuses, the party will release three sets of results: "the first expression of preference" before the realignment, the "final expression of preference" after realignment and state delegate equivalents (the number used to determine the "winner" in past results). The final expression number — rather than the first expression — is used to determine who gets delegates and who doesn't.

    All of the numbers will be released at the same time.

    Another change: Only members of nonviable groups will be allowed to realign. In the past, candidates who had initially hit 15 percent could lose supporters in the realignment. But for this cycle, the initial 15 percent support gets locked in.

    Unlike the Democrats, Republicans select their candidate via a simple secret ballot. There is no shuffling from one corner of the caucus site to the other. There is no 15 percent viability or realignment. And there's no mathematical formula to determine delegates awarded at each caucus site.

    With President Donald Trump receiving nominal GOP opposition, however, the Republican process in Iowa isn't as important to follow this presidential cycle.

    This has been controversial in the past, right?

    Yes. The last two election cycles in Iowa have resulted in controversy on caucus night. On the Republican side in 2012, Mitt Romney was named the early winner, but a closer — and later — examination revealed that Rick Santorum had won by a mere 34 votes.

    And on the Democratic side in 2016, Hillary Clinton edged Sanders by just 0.3 percentage points, with Sanders supporters citing counting and reporting irregularities.

    So, how will we know who wins?

    The activity on caucus night is electing delegates in each of Iowa's 1,679 precincts to the county convention. But the Democratic "winner" is the candidate who accrues the most state delegate equivalents after the realignment process.

    The Iowa Democratic Party says there will be more than 2,000 delegates to the district and state convention. So if you see that Joe Biden gets 35 percent on caucus night, that means he won 35 percent of these state delegate equivalents.

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  3. #2
    What each candidate needs in Iowa

    DES MOINES, Iowa — The winners and losers from Iowa’s Democratic caucuses on Monday won’t only be determined by the final results. Which candidates surpass or disappoint expectations — and who bests their rivals in particular ideological lanes — will also be crucial.

    Here’s what each major candidate needs to do.

    Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.)


    At this stage, it would be a surprise if Sanders did not emerge the victor on Monday night.

    He is the undisputed leader in the polling averages. One of the final major surveys in the state, from Emerson College, had him ahead of his closest rival, former Vice President Joe Biden, by a full 9 points.

    Sanders also attracts huge crowds here. On Saturday night, he rallied more than 3,000 people in Cedar Rapids. His campaign said that was the biggest crowd for any Democratic candidate during this cycle in Iowa.

    Sanders appears to have peaked at just the right time, after a long period when he looked stagnant in the polls and at risk of being eclipsed on the left by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.).

    A victory here for Sanders would put him in great shape for the New Hampshire primary eight days later. He appears even stronger in the Granite State, which abuts his base of Vermont. If Sanders wins the first two contests, the Bernie Bandwagon will take some stopping.

    Still, Iowa can deliver surprises.

    If Sanders were to lose, it would deepen concerns that have long dogged him: Whether he can unite the party and, relatedly, whether he is electable against President Trump in November.

    Former Vice President Joe Biden

    Avoid disaster.

    Biden, a known quantity in so many ways, is something of a mystery in Iowa.

    His events are usually low-key affairs with modest-sized crowds. But he performs well in polls, nonetheless. Of five major recent surveys in Iowa, the former vice president has led two outright, been tied for the lead in another, and been second and fourth in the others.

    Further adding to the Biden conundrum is the question of organizing and turnout.

    His campaign displays little of the organizing intensity that can be seen at other candidates’ events, where clipboard-clutching volunteers make their way through the crowds intent on eliciting voter information and commitments to caucus.

    On the other hand, older voters — one of the strongest demographics for Biden — are among the most reliable attenders of caucuses, so it is conceivable he doesn’t need as much organizational muscle.

    An additional wrinkle if Biden has a poor night: Does he stay ahead of former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D)?

    The real peril for Biden lies in the possibility of Buttigieg overtaking him as the leading centrist.

    Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.)

    A Warren victory here on Monday would be a surprise — but not a seismic shock.

    Her rallies are large and enthusiastic, and even her rivals acknowledge the strength of her organization.

    On the ground, there are murmurings among the state’s political cognoscenti of a late surge by the Massachusetts senator, especially if caucus-goers feel last-minute misgivings about Sanders.

    Like Sanders and Klobuchar, Warren’s campaigning has been curtailed by Trump’s Senate impeachment trial and she is trying to make up for lost time.

    It’s possible, of course, that the positive rumors about Warren’s chances prove wrong. She was fourth in a CBS News/YouGov poll of the state released Sunday morning. Skeptics also contend her appeal is far weaker in rural areas of the state than in the more liberal cities.

    A fourth-place finish would be difficult for Warren to overcome, especially if Sanders wins. She and Sanders are fighting for progressive voters and if he emerges as the clear, unambiguous choice of the left on Monday night, he would deal a potent blow to Warren’s chances.

    Things could get very intriguing for Warren under other scenarios, however — especially if Sanders falls short.

    To take one hypothetical, if Biden won, Sanders came second and Warren a close third, she would go into New Hampshire in a competitive position — and positioned for a long battle for the nomination.

    Former South Bend, Ind. Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D)

    Beat Biden.

    Besting the former vice president is the game-within-the-game for Buttigieg. His path into serious contention requires supplanting Biden as the favored choice for moderate Democrats.

    Iowa, where Buttigieg has been campaigning hard, may present his best opportunity to do that.

    The former mayor’s appeal is straightforward: He is catering to centrists but also presenting himself as a harbinger of change. Buttigieg, at 38, is by far the youngest candidate in the field. If he wins the nomination, he would also become the first openly gay nominee of a major party.

    It’s unlikely — but not totally outside the realm of possibility — that Buttigieg could win. He was just 4 points behind co-leaders Sanders and Biden in the Sunday CBS poll.

    On the downside, an adequate performance — one in which he finishes third or fourth, and behind Biden — likely does not shake up the race enough for his purposes.

    If he wants to win the nomination rather than simply burnish his reputation, Buttigieg needs a game-changer in Iowa.

    Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.)

    Spring a surprise.

    Klobuchar could yet be a dark horse in Iowa.

    Political experts here think her practical, no-nonsense demeanor and roots in the region — she is the only major candidate from a state that borders Iowa — give her a shot at outperforming expectations.

    Unfortunately for Klobuchar, if the polls are right, she will likely be fifth. That’s not good enough to vault her into real contention for the nomination.

    There is another challenge, too: Under the caucus rules, any candidate who gets less than 15 percent support in the initial counting of support at each caucus location is rendered “non-viable,” and her or his supporters are freed to support someone else or go home.

    Klobuchar is currently at 8.8 percent support in the RealClearPolitics polling average in the state — something that poses obvious dangers that she will fail to meet the viability threshold in a lot of caucus locations.

    Even a third-place finish would be a huge moral victory for Klobuchar. But that looks like an uphill climb.

  4. #3
    Bernie and Biden tied in this latest poll...

    POLL: Sanders, Biden, maintain lead in Iowa

    Former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) sit atop the Democratic presidential field in Iowa just one day before the first-in-the-nation caucuses, according to a new poll.

    Biden and Sanders are tied at 25 percent as the first choice nominee among likely caucusgoers, according to a CBS News poll conducted by YouGov released Sunday.

    The results largely match the CBS News poll released last week, which showed the two top candidates in the lead in the state, with Sanders holding a slight 1-point lead over Biden, within the poll’s margin of error, at 26 percent to 25 percent.

    Former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg maintained his third place spot at 21 percent, a one point decrease from last week.

    Sen. Elizabeth Warren had a one point increase in support, up to 16 percent.

    Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) had a 2 point decrease, down to 5 percent support. No other candidates registered more than 5 percent.

    Three of the top candidates, Sanders, Warren and Klobuchar, will miss the key event as they’re held up in Washington, D.C., as President Trump’s Senate impeachment trial presses on. A vote will be held Wednesday and the president will likely be acquitted in the GOP-controlled Senate.

    The poll surveyed 2,500 registered voters in Iowa, including 1,401 self-identified Democrats as well as registered voters who lean Democrat or plan to participate in the Democratic caucus this year. The survey was conducted between Jan. 22 and 31. The margin of error is 3.9 points in Iowa.

  5. #4
    Temporary Ban New York, NY

    Join Date
    Jun 2016
    Communist Bernie sanders is going to win!

  6. #5
    Biden getting very tetchy when asked about his son, Hunter.

  7. #6

  8. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Warlord View Post
    no tingle

  9. #8
    Buttboy surging?

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  11. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Warlord View Post
    Buttboy surging?

    Wow, surprised that "she who must not be mentioned" Tulsi is even in this poll.
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    You only show up to attack Trump when he is wrong
    Make America the Land of the Free & the Home of the Brave again

  12. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by RonZeplin View Post
    Wow, surprised that "she who must not be mentioned" Tulsi is even in this poll.
    There is no spoon.

  13. #11
    Sanders supporters sense victory in Iowa

    DES MOINES — Supporters of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) are showing a palpable confidence that he could have a big win here in Iowa’s caucuses, reshaping the Democratic race at a stroke and making him the candidate to beat.

    Two of the last major polls before the caucuses have given Sanders an identical lead — seven points — over his nearest rival.

    “We will win the Iowa caucuses!” Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), an early endorser of Sanders, predicted to supporters who packed a Des Moines bar just before the Super Bowl on Sunday.

    At the same event, Sanders campaign national co-chair Nina Turner said to loud cheers that Sanders “may be 78 but we are going to make him 46!” — an allusion to the idea that Sanders could be elected the 46th president in November.

    When Sanders himself appeared, he was a good deal more circumspect, warning supporters in brief remarks about the importance of turnout. Repeating a frequent refrain, Sanders predicted that he would win the caucuses if turnout was high but would lose if it was low.

  14. #12
    Alright here we go! Everyone is signed up and ready to vote, oh wait we never did anything about voter fraud:

    Judicial Watch announced that eight Iowa counties have more voter registrations than their eligible voting-age population. According to Judicial Watch’s analysis of data released by the U.S. Election Assistance Commission (EAC) in 2019 and the most recent U.S. Census Bureau’s five-year American Community Survey, eight Iowa counties are on the list of 378 counties nationwide that have more voter registrations than citizens living there who are old enough to vote, i.e., counties where registration rates exceed 100%. These 378 counties combined had about 2.5 million registrations over the 100%-registered mark. In Iowa, there are at least 18,658 “extra names” on the voting rolls in the eight counties at issue.

  15. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by RonZeplin View Post
    Wow, surprised that "she who must not be mentioned" Tulsi is even in this poll.
    VA is an open primary state. Hoping she sticks it out as she'll get my first D vote of any kind for anything.
    There are no crimes against people.
    There are only crimes against the state.
    And the state will never, ever choose to hold accountable its agents, because a thing can not commit a crime against itself.

  16. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by Warlord View Post
    Buttboy surging?

    Pretty sure the underprivileged reparations order of operations is black guy, white woman, gay guy.
    There are no crimes against people.
    There are only crimes against the state.
    And the state will never, ever choose to hold accountable its agents, because a thing can not commit a crime against itself.

  17. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by oyarde View Post
    no tingle
    I got a tingle... just knowing Fatty McCaskill is hanging out with those losers instead of voting for Missouri on Trump's impeachment.
    Quote Originally Posted by Andrew Ryan
    In Washington you can see them everywhere: the Parasites and baby Stalins sucking the life out of a once-great nation.

  18. #16
    Prediction: An asshat is going to win the Iowa Caucus.

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  20. #17
    Des Moines Register Results HERE

    New York Times Results HERE

    CNN Iowa Election Results HERE

  21. #18

  22. #19
    I predict Bernie wins IA, NH, & NV.

  23. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by tfurrh View Post
    I predict Bernie wins IA, NH, & NV.
    I see no reason why not .

  24. #21

  25. #22
    Can't wait to see Bernie win the primary so he can be painted as a dirty commie in the general.

    Socialism/Communism will finally get it's day in modern American court of public opinion. No more misunderstandings, no more flirting with the ideas.

    Its going to be amazing to watch.
    Quote Originally Posted by juleswin View Post
    Bernie will bring about a more free market in the US than Trump. Hence the reason I wouldn't mind having him as my next president.
    Quote Originally Posted by juleswin View Post
    If the US govt ends their official and clandestine attacks on Venezuela, I can brush up on my Spanish and move there.

    @Ehanced_Deficit's real agenda on RPF :
    DNC-S (Soros)
    CIA-B (Brennan)

  26. #23
    Breaking news alert. They are projecting Donald Trump as winner in the Iowa Republican caucus.

    Trump wins Iowa
    AP News projects that Trump has (predictably) won Iowa.

    He was up against two other Republicans, but due to his overwhelming support from the Republican party, it had been considered a foregone conclusion that he would win.

    We still have hours to go until we know who Iowa Democrats want to take him on in November 2020.

  27. #24
    Why we might see more than one ‘winner’

    At each of the 1,677 locations across the state, a candidate must have the support of at least 15% of voters in order to qualify for a chance to win Iowa delegates to the national convention in July - when the candidate is ultimately picked.

    After a first round of tabulations, those who support a candidate that doesn't reach "viability" have the opportunity to switch sides.

    Complicating everything is the new reporting system the Democratic Party has instituted for the Iowa caucus results.

    In the past, the party has only released one number - the final tabulation of support after all the caucus horse-trading and support swapping takes place. This time, however, there will be two sets of numbers - the final tally as well as a count of each candidate's support in the first round of balloting.

    That means two - or more! - candidates could be on stage declaring victory on Monday night.

    It has the makings for a long, chaotic night - the first of what could be many for the candidates still standing after the Iowa dust settles.

    When Ron Paul ran in 2012, three different people were named winners of the Iowa Caucus. At different points, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum were declared winners before it was decided Ron was the actual winner. It took until June to finally decide- five months later.

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  29. #25

  30. #26
    Big night for mayor Pete. Could pull this out because he is the second choice of more people than comrade.

    Biden is a dumpster fire. Sounds horrible on the stump. I truthfully have a hard time seeing any of these people beating Trump.

  31. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by Krugminator2 View Post
    Big night for mayor Pete. Could pull this out because he is the second choice of more people than comrade.

    Biden is a dumpster fire. Sounds horrible on the stump. I truthfully have a hard time seeing any of these people beating Trump.

  32. #28

  33. #29
    Nick Corasaniti, reporting from Des Moines 1m ago

    Wondering why there’s no results? Party officials tell me they’re doing “quality control,” making sure preference cards and turnout align with results.

    Nate Cohn, in New York 2m ago

    The lack of results from Iowa is not normal. By this time in 2016, nearly 80% of the total vote was counted, based on the data we saved from 2016.

    "He's talkin' to his gut like it's a person!!" -me
    "dumpster diving isn't professional." - angelatc
    "When you are divided, and angry, and controlled, you target those 'different' from you, not those responsible [controllers]" -Q

    "Each of us must choose which course of action we should take: education, conventional political action, or even peaceful civil disobedience to bring about necessary changes. But let it not be said that we did nothing." - Ron Paul

    "Paul said "the wave of the future" is a coalition of anti-authoritarian progressive Democrats and libertarian Republicans in Congress opposed to domestic surveillance, opposed to starting new wars and in favor of ending the so-called War on Drugs."

  34. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by Warlord View Post

    76 percent among Iowa republicans polled by Des Moine newspaper

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