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Thread: First case of China-linked coronavirus reported in US

  1. #121
    Per registered decision, member has been banned for violating community standards as interpreted by TheTexan (respect his authoritah) as authorized by Brian4Liberty Ruling

    May God have mercy on his atheist, police-hating, non-voting, anarchist soul.
    Last edited by Voluntarist; 02-23-2020 at 08:12 PM.
    You have the right to remain silent. Anything you post to the internet can and will be used to humiliate you.



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  3. #122
    In light of growing speculation, most of it within less than official circles, that the official theory for the spread of the Coronavirus epidemic, namely because someone ate bat soup at a Wuhan seafood and animal market...

    ... is a fabricated farce, and that the real reason behind the viral spread is because a weaponized version of the coronavirus (one which may have originally been obtained from Canada), was released by Wuhan's Institute of Virology (accidentally or not), a top-level biohazard lab which was studying "the world's most dangerous pathogens", perhaps it would be a good idea for the same Wuhan Institute of Virology to remove the following "help wanted" notice, posted on November 18, 2019, according to which the institute is seeking to hire one or two post-doc fellows, who will use "bats to research the molecular mechanism that allows Ebola and SARS-associated coronaviruses to lie dormant for a long time without causing diseases."
    The right candidate will:


    • Have obtained or is about to obtain a PhD in life science/biomedical related fields;
    • Have a reliable and rigorous work style, with strong independent scientific research ability and teamwork spirit;
    • Have strong English communication and writing skills, have research papers published in the international mainstream academic journals
    • Have a cell biology, immunology, genomics and other relevant background experience is preferred;

    The full job posting, which can still be found on the Wuhan Institute of Virology website can be found here (and screengrabbed below as it will be gone within a few hours).

    And google translated:

    Why is this notable? Because as it turns out, this is a job posting for the lab of Dr. Peng Zhou (周鹏), Ph.D., a researcher at the Wuhan Institute of Virology and Leader of the Bat Virus Infection and Immunization Group. Some more on Zhou's background from the Institute (google translated):
    He received his PhD in Wuhan Virus Research Institute in 2010 and has worked on bat virus and immunology in Australia and Singapore. In 2009 , he took the lead in starting the research on the immune mechanism of bat long-term carrying and transmitting virus in the world. So far, he has published more than 30 SCI articles, including the first and corresponding author's Nature , Cell Host Microbe and PNAS . At present, research on bat virus and immunology is continuing, and it has received support from the National "You Qing" Fund, the pilot project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and the major project of the Ministry of Science and Technology.
    Below is a list of several recent papers published by Dr. Zhou


    Which brings us to the punchline: courtesy of the Wuhan institute of virology, here is a press release from Dr. Zhou's lab titled "How bats carry viruses without getting sick"

    More at: https://www.zerohedge.com/health/man...virus-pandemic
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  4. #123
    Quote Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty View Post
    You’ll get there just in time for China to halt all travel...
    That's not the only way he could get stuck there:

    "It's Like A Sinking Ship" - American In Wuhan Refuses Evacuation To Stay Behind With Girlfriend

    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  5. #124
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    In light of growing speculation, most of it within less than official circles, that the official theory for the spread of the Coronavirus epidemic, namely because someone ate bat soup at a Wuhan seafood and animal market...

    ... is a fabricated farce, and that the real reason behind the viral spread is because a weaponized version of the coronavirus (one which may have originally been obtained from Canada), was released by Wuhan's Institute of Virology (accidentally or not), a top-level biohazard lab which was studying "the world's most dangerous pathogens", perhaps it would be a good idea for the same Wuhan Institute of Virology to remove the following "help wanted" notice, posted on November 18, 2019, according to which the institute is seeking to hire one or two post-doc fellows, who will use "bats to research the molecular mechanism that allows Ebola and SARS-associated coronaviruses to lie dormant for a long time without causing diseases."
    The right candidate will:


    • Have obtained or is about to obtain a PhD in life science/biomedical related fields;
    • Have a reliable and rigorous work style, with strong independent scientific research ability and teamwork spirit;
    • Have strong English communication and writing skills, have research papers published in the international mainstream academic journals
    • Have a cell biology, immunology, genomics and other relevant background experience is preferred;

    The full job posting, which can still be found on the Wuhan Institute of Virology website can be found here (and screengrabbed below as it will be gone within a few hours).

    And google translated:

    Why is this notable? Because as it turns out, this is a job posting for the lab of Dr. Peng Zhou (周鹏), Ph.D., a researcher at the Wuhan Institute of Virology and Leader of the Bat Virus Infection and Immunization Group. Some more on Zhou's background from the Institute (google translated):
    He received his PhD in Wuhan Virus Research Institute in 2010 and has worked on bat virus and immunology in Australia and Singapore. In 2009 , he took the lead in starting the research on the immune mechanism of bat long-term carrying and transmitting virus in the world. So far, he has published more than 30 SCI articles, including the first and corresponding author's Nature , Cell Host Microbe and PNAS . At present, research on bat virus and immunology is continuing, and it has received support from the National "You Qing" Fund, the pilot project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and the major project of the Ministry of Science and Technology.
    Below is a list of several recent papers published by Dr. Zhou


    Which brings us to the punchline: courtesy of the Wuhan institute of virology, here is a press release from Dr. Zhou's lab titled "How bats carry viruses without getting sick"

    More at: https://www.zerohedge.com/health/man...virus-pandemic
    There's nothing odd or suspicious in a research institute researching what's actually now happening; that's exactly why they exist! This sort of thing isn't a surprise to scientists who research this kind of thing; it was expected, in some form. Don't get me wrong; it's entirely possible that this started because of a release from that lab, but there's no evidence of that, and it's not necessary to explain what's happened. Very high population density coupled with questionable gastronomic choices will do the trick. Nature is quite capable of screwing us all on its own, and China is a, if not the, natural place, given the size of the population. Think about it this way. China has about 5x the population of the US. Therefore, all else being equal, it's about 5x more likely to generate new diseases. I'm actually surprised that India hasn't generated something really nasty yet, given the similar population and much worse sanitation (though maybe it did and we just didn't hear about it, because India doesn't have airports and highspeed rail everywhere).
    Last edited by r3volution 3.0; 01-28-2020 at 10:39 PM.

  6. #125
    Quote Originally Posted by r3volution 3.0 View Post
    There's nothing odd or suspicious in a research institute researching what's actually now happening; that's exactly why they exist! This sort of thing isn't a surprise to scientists who research this kind of thing; it was expected, in some form. Don't get me wrong; it's entirely possible that this started because of a release from that lab, but there's no evidence of that, and it's not necessary to explain what's happened. Very high population density coupled with questionable gastronomic choices will do the trick. Nature is quite capable of screwing us all on its own, and China is a, if not the, natural place, given the size of the population. Think about it this way. China has about 5x the population of the US. Therefore, all else being equal, it's about 5x more likely to generate new diseases. I'm actually surprised that India hasn't generated something really nasty yet, given the similar population and much worse sanitation (though maybe it did and we just didn't hear about it, because India doesn't have airports and highspeed rail everywhere).
    Agree, evidence would be required.

    While never having been to India, I have not heard about wet markets there such as those in China. Sure, there are live animals, and they are butchered and eaten by a minority of the population, but not under the same conditions and with the variety of wild animals as in China. (Remember, much of India is vegetarian).

    I also assume that in India the concept of washing hands with soap is more common, while apparently it is quite uncommon in China.
    "Foreign aid is taking money from the poor people of a rich country, and giving it to the rich people of a poor country." - Ron Paul
    "Beware the Military-Industrial-Financial-Pharma-Corporate-Internet-Media-Government Complex." - B4L update of General Dwight D. Eisenhower
    "Debt is the drug, Wall St. Banksters are the dealers, and politicians are the addicts." - B4L
    "Totally free immigration? I've never taken that position. I believe in national sovereignty." - Ron Paul

    Proponent of real science.
    The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own, and do not represent this forum or any other entities or persons.

  7. #126
    Quote Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty View Post
    Agree, evidence would be required.

    While never having been to India, I have not heard about wet markets there such as those in China. Sure, there are live animals, and they are butchered and eaten by a minority of the population, but not under the same conditions and with the variety of wild animals as in China. (Remember, much of India is vegetarian).

    I also assume that in India the concept of washing hands with soap is more common, while apparently it is quite uncommon in China.
    The Indians don't eat wild animals in the same way as the Chinese, but the general level of sanitation is far worse.

    Perhaps eating bats is more likely to generate new diseases than having sewage in the water supply, but I'd recommend against both!

  8. #127
    Quote Originally Posted by r3volution 3.0 View Post
    The Indians don't eat wild animals in the same way as the Chinese, but the general level of sanitation is far worse.

    Perhaps eating bats is more likely to generate new diseases than having sewage in the water supply, but I'd recommend against both!
    I have not been to either place, but have known many people from both places. My impression is that sanitation varies, and that on a whole, neither nation is up to first world standards.

    But that is beside the point. The diseases come from the variety of animals and conditions under which they are butchered and consumed, not the bathrooms or sewage. That is the huge difference between China and India.

    Hand washing is another difference, but in a relative way. 50% washing in India is better than 10% in China.
    "Foreign aid is taking money from the poor people of a rich country, and giving it to the rich people of a poor country." - Ron Paul
    "Beware the Military-Industrial-Financial-Pharma-Corporate-Internet-Media-Government Complex." - B4L update of General Dwight D. Eisenhower
    "Debt is the drug, Wall St. Banksters are the dealers, and politicians are the addicts." - B4L
    "Totally free immigration? I've never taken that position. I believe in national sovereignty." - Ron Paul

    Proponent of real science.
    The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own, and do not represent this forum or any other entities or persons.

  9. #128
    Quote Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty View Post
    I have not been to either place, but have known many people from both places. My impression is that sanitation varies, and that on a whole, neither nation is up to first world standards.

    But that is beside the point. The diseases come from the variety of animals and conditions under which they are butchered and consumed, not the bathrooms or sewage. That is the huge difference between China and India.

    Hand washing is another difference, but in a relative way. 50% washing in India is better than 10% in China.
    That may be optimistic; Delhi Belly is a thing for a reason.

    China is in just about every way more developed and sanitary than India.

    Does eating or not eating weird $#@! ultimately matter more than general hygiene?

    Maybe, it certainty appears to have mattered more a few months ago when this virus was spawned in China.

    When it comes to antibiotic resistant TB or similar diseases? We shall see.

    For the record, I'm a huge fan of Indian culture and food (much more than Chinese), but it is what it is.



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  11. #129
    Quote Originally Posted by r3volution 3.0 View Post
    That may be optimistic; Delhi Belly is a thing for a reason.

    China is in just about every way more developed and sanitary than India.

    Does eating or not eating weird $#@! ultimately matter more than general hygiene?

    Maybe, it certainty appears to have mattered more a few months ago when this virus was spawned in China.

    When it comes to antibiotic resistant TB or similar diseases? We shall see.

    For the record, I'm a huge fan of Indian culture and food (much more than Chinese), but it is what it is.
    In the case of zoonotic diseases like coronavirus, animals (weird $#@!) is all that matters. Contact with, butchering and consuming a huge variety of animals is exactly what does cause these new disease to emerge and infect humans..

    Delhi belly or Travelers' diarrhea is not a new disease, and yes, sanitation is an issue with that. Totally different thing.

    And China is definitely not more developed and sanitary when it comes to hand washing. That is fact.
    "Foreign aid is taking money from the poor people of a rich country, and giving it to the rich people of a poor country." - Ron Paul
    "Beware the Military-Industrial-Financial-Pharma-Corporate-Internet-Media-Government Complex." - B4L update of General Dwight D. Eisenhower
    "Debt is the drug, Wall St. Banksters are the dealers, and politicians are the addicts." - B4L
    "Totally free immigration? I've never taken that position. I believe in national sovereignty." - Ron Paul

    Proponent of real science.
    The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own, and do not represent this forum or any other entities or persons.

  12. #130
    Turd World

    They are, in no way, examples that we should emulate or respect.

  13. #131
    Quote Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty View Post
    In the case of zoonotic diseases like coronavirus, animals (weird $#@!) is all that matters. Contact with, butchering and consuming a huge variety of animals is exactly what does cause these new disease to emerge and infect humans..

    Delhi belly or Travelers' diarrhea is not a new disease, and yes, sanitation is an issue with that. Totally different thing.
    I totally agree, but the latter can also cause very serious problems. And I don't mean Delhi Belly; that's just a mild example.

    It wouldn't be surprising to have a dangerous disease (such as an antibiotic resistant form of something really bad, like typhus) emerge in India.

    High population density (like China) coupled with very poor sanitation encourages that kind of thing.

    China's problem with wild animals is also very serious, but different.

    And China is definitely not more developed and sanitary when it comes to hand washing. That is fact.
    Well, I don't know why you think that. If you mean it's a cultural thing, I guess that could be, I couldn't say, but the physical fact is that lots more Indians lack access to running water (let alone clean running water), which makes any kind of bathing (of hands or otherwise) a lot more difficult. The Chinese have adopted Western toilets to a much greater extent than the Indians. In many places in India, including big cities, you still find holes in the ground (and no toilet paper).

  14. #132
    Quote Originally Posted by sparebulb View Post
    Turd World

    They are, in no way, examples that we should emulate or respect.
    They're just poor, no different than our own ancestors; they'll develop further and be fine at some point.

    In every city in Europe, until fairly recently, sewage was thrown raw into the street or, at best, into an open sewer.

    See: Plague

  15. #133
    Quote Originally Posted by r3volution 3.0 View Post
    They're just poor, no different than our own ancestors; they'll develop further and be fine at some point.

    In every city in Europe, until fairly recently, sewage was thrown raw into the street or, at best, into an open sewer.

    See: Plague
    They are centuries behind in spite of having been exposed to the example of the west.

    We should not allow any of them to come and stay in our nations until they catch up.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  16. #134
    Quote Originally Posted by r3volution 3.0 View Post
    They're just poor, no different than our own ancestors; they'll develop further and be fine at some point.

    In every city in Europe, until fairly recently, sewage was thrown raw into the street or, at best, into an open sewer.

    See: Plague
    Turd World people should stay in their own hellholes until they evolve.

    Technology that has leaked, or worse, given to these shatheels is like giving a machine gun to a monkey.

    And it will take us down in many ways if we let it.

  17. #135
    Quote Originally Posted by r3volution 3.0 View Post
    ...
    Well, I don't know why you think that. If you mean it's a cultural thing, I guess that could be, I couldn't say, but the physical fact is that lots more Indians lack access to running water (let alone clean running water), which makes any kind of bathing (of hands or otherwise) a lot more difficult. The Chinese have adopted Western toilets to a much greater extent than the Indians. In many places in India, including big cities, you still find holes in the ground (and no toilet paper).
    It’s a cultural thing, worse in China than India.

    One travel guide example:

    Did I mention that China is a BYOTP society? It’s true. Always make sure to carry a few packets of tissue with you, because you will not find even a shred of toilet paper in a Chinese bathroom. Forgetting to bring your own can land you in some sticky situations out there. Sometimes after eating a big plate of spicy and oily ma la tang, nature calls and you have to answer. Without any TP, you might just have to get creative – 1 RMB notes, socks, and other odd objects have to be considered to get the job done. Here’s one particularly funny exchange I had with a friend one day when one of us ended up in this less than desirable situation:

    “Hey. I’m wiping my ass with your lesson plans.”

    “Literally or figuratively? I do make some pretty $#@!ty lesson plans.”

    “Literally. No TP in here and it’s the best I could find.”

    “It’s alright. That’s probably a better use for them anyways.”

    After such a traumatic experience, all you want to do is wash your hands thoroughly. Once again, you’re SOL in a Chinese bathroom – no soap anywhere here. Make sure you carry a small bottle of hand sanitizer with you if you’re going out in China. A small bottle of whiskey might not be a bad idea, either – it’ll help you forget about what you just went through.
    ...
    https://blogs.transparent.com/chines...ina-bathrooms/
    "Foreign aid is taking money from the poor people of a rich country, and giving it to the rich people of a poor country." - Ron Paul
    "Beware the Military-Industrial-Financial-Pharma-Corporate-Internet-Media-Government Complex." - B4L update of General Dwight D. Eisenhower
    "Debt is the drug, Wall St. Banksters are the dealers, and politicians are the addicts." - B4L
    "Totally free immigration? I've never taken that position. I believe in national sovereignty." - Ron Paul

    Proponent of real science.
    The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own, and do not represent this forum or any other entities or persons.

  18. #136
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    They are centuries behind in spite of having been exposed to the example of the west.

    We should not allow any of them to come and stay in our nations until they catch up.
    It's not a matter of "example," it's a matter of the size of the capital stock. Look at a graph of any exponential function; the West is on the far right (and dropping, but that's another story), while the East is just at the point of exploding with fantastic late 19th century European style growth. They'll be fine. Our moribund socialist empires will be dead around the time India installs flush toilets in every house in Bombay.

    ...but I wouldn't drink the water, in the meantime.



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  20. #137
    Quote Originally Posted by r3volution 3.0 View Post
    It's not a matter of "example," it's a matter of the size of the capital stock. Look at a graph of any exponential function; the West is on the far right (and dropping, but that's another story), while the East is just at the point of exploding with fantastic late 19th century European style growth. They'll be fine. Our moribund socialist empires will be dead around the time India installs flush toilets in every house in Bombay.

    ...but I wouldn't drink the water, in the meantime.
    They are centuries behind in spite of being uplifted in many ways by the west, don't hold your breath waiting for them to catch up.
    And don't let them in to drag us down to their level until they do catch up. (and letting them in is one of the many reasons for our {hopefully temporary} decline)
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  21. #138
    Quote Originally Posted by Brian4Liberty View Post
    It’s a cultural thing, worse in China than India.

    One travel guide example:
    Well, assuming that's true, that's a problem obviously, but at least in China they're in a position to fix it more easily; i.e. they actually can wash their hands, with clean running water, and afford soap, if they want to (and something tells me that the average Wuhaner right now is washing the $#@! out of his hands, no pun intended). I guess we'll see.

  22. #139
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    They are centuries behind in spite of being uplifted in many ways by the west, don't hold your breath waiting for them to catch up.
    And don't let them in to drag us down to their level until they do catch up. (and letting them in is one of the many reasons for our {hopefully temporary} decline)
    They're behind in consuming their inheritance with socialistic economic policies and insane warmongering, you mean?

    The lunatic world order in which the US gets to print unlimited amounts of dollars to fund itself is coming to an end.

    We're going to be looking like the backward ones in the not very distant future.

    ...nothing to do with them, mind you, rather a matter of what we did to ourselves.
    Last edited by r3volution 3.0; 01-29-2020 at 12:43 AM.

  23. #140
    Quote Originally Posted by r3volution 3.0 View Post
    They're behind in consuming their inheritance with socialistic economic policies and insane warmongering, you mean?
    LOL
    They have the socialistic economic policies and insane warmongering but they never built anything to squander.

    Quote Originally Posted by r3volution 3.0 View Post
    The lunatic world order in which the US gets to print unlimited amounts of dollars to fund itself is coming to an end.
    Perhaps, but their troubles will be much worse than ours.

    Quote Originally Posted by r3volution 3.0 View Post
    We're going to be looking like the backward ones in the not very distant future.

    ...nothing to do with them, mind you, rather a matter of what we did to ourselves.
    Whatever happens to us will not be nearly as bad as what will happen to them, they never caught up to us and they will far much farther.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  24. #141
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Whatever happens to us will not be nearly as bad as what will happen to them
    ...whatever let's you sleep.

    (I sleep like a baby)

  25. #142
    Quote Originally Posted by r3volution 3.0 View Post
    ...whatever let's you sleep.

    (I sleep like a baby)
    I sleep just fine.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  26. #143
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    I sleep just fine.
    So anyway, impending collapse of Western Civilization notwithstanding, what do you my friend really think about the Wuhan virus?

    Did you see my math with R0s of 2 or 3 and a mortality rate of 3%?

    Am I crazy? Or is that indeed looking like a likely scenario?

  27. #144
    Quote Originally Posted by r3volution 3.0 View Post
    So anyway, impending collapse of Western Civilization notwithstanding, what do you my friend really think about the Wuhan virus?

    Did you see my math with R0s of 2 or 3 and a mortality rate of 3%?

    Am I crazy? Or is that indeed looking like a likely scenario?
    I don't know enough to tell yet.
    It could be that it is already infecting and killing far more people than China admits to or it could be that we are getting relatively accurate numbers.
    It could be that it will be just as dangerous outside of China or it could be insignificant due to better sanitation, better air quality, better nutrition and other factors in America and Europe.

    This is either a new black plague or just another flu scare or something in between.

    I think it will hurt China's economy severely and possibly be the pin that pops their bubble and brings down the CCP one way or another.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment



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  29. #145
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    I don't know enough to tell yet.
    It could be that it is already infecting and killing far more people than China admits to or it could be that we are getting relatively accurate numbers.
    It could be that it will be just as dangerous outside of China or it could be insignificant due to better sanitation, better air quality, better nutrition and other factors in America and Europe.

    This is either a new black plague or just another flu scare or something in between.

    I think it will hurt China's economy severely and possibly be the pin that pops their bubble and brings down the CCP one way or another.
    The math assumes that Chinese official figures (c. 6000 infected at last count) are correct. Those numbers are certainly wrong, low, just by the nature of what they're trying to do, even if they're totally honest (which I agree they are very likely not - albeit, I would say, for good reason). There's been no noticeable decline (AFAIK) in the rate of spread since China implemented their massive (historically unprecedented) quarantines. The only good news is that there's been no secondary transmission outside China (as far as we know). That's the only question in my mind. If we get a case in New York or Seattle or wherever with no connection to China, then I'd be pretty confident in a straight application of the R0 math globally, which is pretty horrifying.

  30. #146
    Quote Originally Posted by r3volution 3.0 View Post
    The math assumes that Chinese official figures (c. 6000 infected at last count) are correct. Those numbers are certainly wrong, low, just by the nature of what they're trying to do, even if they're totally honest (which I agree they are very likely not - albeit, I would say, for good reason). There's been no noticeable decline (AFAIK) in the rate of spread since China implemented their massive (historically unprecedented) quarantines. The only good news is that there's been no secondary transmission outside China (as far as we know). That's the only question in my mind. If we get a case in New York or Seattle or wherever with no connection to China, then I'd be pretty confident in a straight application of the R0 math globally, which is pretty horrifying.
    I've seen several stories that claim someone outside of China caught it from someone who came from China but so far it doesn't seem to be spreading at the same rate outside of China.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  31. #147
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    I've seen several stories that claim someone outside of China caught it from someone who came from China but so far it doesn't seem to be spreading at the same rate outside of China.
    The only confirmed cases of outside-Wuhan transmission that I'm aware of are in Beijing (2 or 3 cases several days ago, probably a lot more now).

    But it would be very odd, lucky, if we didn't see that happen somewhere outside China, given how many individual cases there are outside China.

    For instance, I was talking to our sole Dutch member, who says the Dutch media say there are no confirmed cases in the Netherlands, but that is only a few hours from Paris, where there is a confirmed case, and only a few more hours from the other confirmed cases in Europe. Given the dense rail network in Europe, it seems very unlikely to me that some fellow flying into Charles de Gaul, let's say, wouldn't spread it to others in the train station, or the airport itself, even if he were only going home to some place in Paris, and especially if he were going to Amsterdam, Lyon, Frankfurt - many possibilities.

    I think we're going to see secondary transmission outside China soon: hope I'm wrong, but it doesn't make sense to not see it.

  32. #148
    Quote Originally Posted by r3volution 3.0 View Post
    The only confirmed cases of outside-Wuhan transmission that I'm aware of are in Beijing (2 or 3 cases several days ago, probably a lot more now).

    But it would be very odd, lucky, if we didn't see that happen somewhere outside China, given how many individual cases there are outside China.

    For instance, I was talking to our sole Dutch member, who says the Dutch media say there are no confirmed cases in the Netherlands, but that is only a few hours from Paris, where there is a confirmed case, and only a few more hours from the other confirmed cases in Europe. Given the dense rail network in Europe, it seems very unlikely to me that some fellow flying into Charles de Gaul, let's say, wouldn't spread it to others in the train station, or the airport itself, even if he were only going home to some place in Paris, and especially if he were going to Amsterdam, Lyon, Frankfurt - many possibilities.

    I think we're going to see secondary transmission outside China soon: hope I'm wrong, but it doesn't make sense to not see it.
    Supposedly one person who returned from China gave it to 3 co-workers in Germany and Japan has identified a case in a person who never went to China.

    I think I may have seen more such stories but so far I haven't heard of anyone catching it from someone who hadn't been to China.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  33. #149
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Supposedly one person who returned from China gave it to 3 co-workers in Germany and Japan has identified a case in a person who never went to China.

    I think I may have seen more such stories but so far I haven't heard of anyone catching it from someone who hadn't been to China.
    You beat me to it. I was just now looking around and came across the German story.

    The German Health Ministry confirmed late on Tuesday that three further cases of the new dangerous strain of coronavirus have been discovered in Bavaria, increasing the total number of patients in Germany to four. The three new patients were "connected" to the first found in Germany, which had been verified on Monday.

    The health authorities said: "There were a total of around 40 employees who have been determined to have been in contact with the [Chinese] woman. Those affected will be tested on Wednesday as a precaution."

    Health officials added that the first person had contracted the disease from a Chinese colleague who had visited the area for a company workshop a week ago.
    There it is.

    The female who passed on the virus is from Shanghai and only started experiencing symptoms during her return flight home from Germany last Thursday, Zapf said.

    Ahead of the female's business trip to Bavaria, she had met with her parents, who were visiting from Wuhan, the epicenter of the deadly outbreak.
    Wuhan - Shanghai - Bavaria.

  34. #150
    You know, no one's been talking about how these people got to Europe.

    There are direct flights from China to the W. Coast, but not to Europe (AFAIK).

    This person leaving Shanghai probably went to Munich via Dubai, or maybe Delhi, Moscow...

    Probably Dubai, from which we've heard exactly nothing

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