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Thread: QE4 Started & Nobody Noticed

  1. #151
    Quote Originally Posted by Bern View Post
    5/7/20 - $ 6.769 T

    Just a $66B increase (over last week). Looks like the Fed now owns $4B in the "Commercial Paper Funding Facility II LLC".
    Any indication who the 4B went to? 4B via the Fed, but really from the Treasury via the ESF would cover a bunch of Citadel's daily wash trading.

    https://www.federalreserve.gov/newse...y20200317a.htm

    The Fed specifically cites 13(3) as the authority for this program. 4B is pretty much nothing for corporate bond issuance but sure will buy up large chunks of S&P futures overnight. All of the S&P gains now are from overnight futures buying. PPT money laundering via blatant FRA violations and the taxpayer is on the hook for all of it.

    The Treasury will provide $10 billion of credit protection to the Federal Reserve in connection with the CPFF from the Treasury's Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF). The Federal Reserve will then provide financing to the SPV under the CPFF. Its loans will be secured by all of the assets of the SPV.
    Last edited by devil21; 05-10-2020 at 12:59 AM.
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul

    "We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book



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  3. #152
    Quote Originally Posted by devil21 View Post
    Any indication who the 4B went to? ...
    I haven't seen any detail on it. I only just now (when I looked prior to my last post) noticed the line item in the report. Apparently they started reporting on it with the April 16 report. It went from $0 -> $0.95B -> $2.71B -> $3.347B -> $3.948B. A drop in the bucket of the overall balance sheet for sure, but it would be interesting to know which zombies the Fed are helping to continue to eat brains.

    Wolf Richter posted another analysis of the balance sheet report:

    https://wolfstreet.com/2020/05/08/fe...ust-jawboning/

    I'm not sure he noticed the CPFF line item as he says they haven't bought junk bonds yet...



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  5. #153
    Fed says it is starting junk bond ETF buying today. Markets seem unimpressed so far and the pledged figures in the ZH link are relatively small.
    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fe...-you-need-know

    I'll still believe it when the balance sheet reflects it. Besides, buying ETFs isn't the same as buying the underlying asset so buying any ETF is bigly violating 13(3). They could have maybe played loose with the FRA if they'd actually bought junk bonds with proper diligence under 13(3). But ETFs are market funds that contain bonds, so the Fed isn't actually even buying bonds. Whenever someone buys an ETF, they're not buying the underlying asset (usually, except in rare cases like GLD where physical delivery may be possible), they're just buying a trading vehicle that reflects the assets held in trust by the ETF issuer. So if the SPV is buying the ETF, the Fed/SPV isn't buying the bonds themselves. Blackrock holds the junk bonds in LQD. StateStreet holds the bonds in JNK.
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul

    "We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book

  6. #154
    Quote Originally Posted by devil21 View Post
    Fed says it is starting junk bond ETF buying today. Markets seem unimpressed so far and the pledged figures in the ZH link are relatively small.
    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fe...-you-need-know

    I'll still believe it when the balance sheet reflects it. Besides, buying ETFs isn't the same as buying the underlying asset so buying any ETF is bigly violating 13(3). They could have maybe played loose with the FRA if they'd actually bought junk bonds with proper diligence under 13(3). But ETFs are market funds that contain bonds, so the Fed isn't actually even buying bonds. Whenever someone buys an ETF, they're not buying the underlying asset (usually, except in rare cases like GLD where physical delivery may be possible), they're just buying a trading vehicle that reflects the assets held in trust by the ETF issuer. So if the SPV is buying the ETF, the Fed/SPV isn't buying the bonds themselves. Blackrock holds the junk bonds in LQD. StateStreet holds the bonds in JNK.
    It's all about expectations; they're trying to delay things, to maintain the magic act.

    Sooner or later, LQD and JNK are going to get wrecked if they don't get bought by the Fed.

    ...along with pretty much everything else.

    Therefore, they will get bought.
    Last edited by r3volution 3.0; 05-13-2020 at 12:15 AM.

  7. #155
    5/14/20 - $6.982T

    $213B increase. Biggest weekly increase in a month after steadily declining increases.

  8. #156
    213 billion . Now we are getting somewhere .

  9. #157
    Quote Originally Posted by Bern View Post
    5/14/20 - $6.982T

    $213B increase. Biggest weekly increase in a month after steadily declining increases.
    The crackheads at Wall and Broad disliked the anti-NIRP comments, I suppose, so Powell had to throw some more crack at them.

  10. #158
    Quote Originally Posted by Bern View Post
    5/14/20 - $6.982T

    $213B increase. Biggest weekly increase in a month after steadily declining increases.
    Anything in the junk bond SPV yet?
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul

    "We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book

  11. #159
    Yeah, $305 million worth. They started buying Tuesday, so balance sheet report just shows the first two days or so of activity. They are just getting started.

    https://wolfstreet.com/2020/05/14/fe...-a-huge-rally/

  12. #160
    Quote Originally Posted by Bern View Post
    Yeah, $305 million worth. They started buying Tuesday, so balance sheet report just shows the first two days or so of activity. They are just getting started.

    https://wolfstreet.com/2020/05/14/fe...-a-huge-rally/
    Thanks. It's nice to document when the Fed officially and publicly violated the FRA even if a tiny amount by today's standards.
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul

    "We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book



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  14. #161
    Quote Originally Posted by r3volution 3.0 View Post
    The crackheads at Wall and Broad disliked the anti-NIRP comments, I suppose, so Powell had to throw some more crack at them.
    I have a feeling that 30 years from now there'll be books written about the "Great Dollar Collapse" and how dumb everyone was to think we could just print our way to prosperity.

    And then 60 years from now they'll be saying "this time it's different!".

  15. #162
    Quote Originally Posted by Madison320 View Post
    I have a feeling that 30 years from now there'll be books written about the "Great Dollar Collapse" and how dumb everyone was to think we could just print our way to prosperity.

    And then 60 years from now they'll be saying "this time it's different!".
    Something about rhyming...

  16. #163
    Quote Originally Posted by r3volution 3.0 View Post
    Something about rhyming...
    That went over my head, I need a hint.

  17. #164
    Quote Originally Posted by Madison320 View Post
    That went over my head, I need a hint.
    History doesn't repeat but it does rhyme.
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul

    "We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book

  18. #165
    5/21/20 - $7.085T

    $103B increase. Less than half of last week's increase.

    Federal Reserve purchases of exchanged-traded funds invested in corporate debt totaled $1.8 billion in the first six days of the program, according to data published Thursday.
    ...
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...nd-etfs-so-far

  19. #166
    Quote Originally Posted by Madison320 View Post
    That went over my head, I need a hint.
    Go whitewash something.

  20. #167
    Rumors/reports that now-bankrupt Hertz bonds are part of the Fed's portfolio now via the ETF buying. If true and not simply a meme, chalk up another 13(3) violation, as obviously there was no diligence done before the purchase so as to ensure the Fed wasn't buying bonds of insolvent corps nor shielding taxpayers from untenable risks.
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul

    "We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book

  21. #168
    Quote Originally Posted by r3volution 3.0 View Post
    Go whitewash something.
    I figured it out from the devil21's hint, your's was an advanced jeopardy hint.



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  23. #169
    Quote Originally Posted by devil21 View Post
    Rumors/reports that now-bankrupt Hertz bonds are part of the Fed's portfolio now via the ETF buying. If true and not simply a meme, chalk up another 13(3) violation, as obviously there was no diligence done before the purchase so as to ensure the Fed wasn't buying bonds of insolvent corps nor shielding taxpayers from untenable risks.

    I am not sure where I stand on the Fed purchasing junk bonds. Seems like a bad idea and soft bailout to junk bond holders but maybe not. From a quick Google search they just bought junk bond ETFs which is what you said.

    Your reasoning wouldn't factor into at all whether it made sense to buy junk bonds. If you are buying a portfolio of high yield bonds, some are going to default. That's why they yield more. This isn't an untenable risk as you said. Over time the Fed will make more by owning junk bonds than regular corporate bonds whether they do any due diligence or not.

    That said, I can't articulate whether it makes sense to buy them or not buy them as part of monetary policy. It would seem this would be very distortionary to markets though but maybe it is necessary for liquidity.
    Last edited by Krugminator2; 05-27-2020 at 06:00 PM.

  24. #170
    Quote Originally Posted by Krugminator2 View Post
    I am not sure where I stand on the Fed purchasing junk bonds. Seems like a bad idea and soft bailout to junk bond holders but maybe not. From a quick Google search they just bought junk bond ETFs which is what you said.

    Your reasoning wouldn't factor into at all whether it made sense to buy junk bonds. If you are buying a portfolio of high yield bonds, some are going to default. That's why they yield more. This isn't an untenable risk as you said. Over time the Fed will make more by owning junk bonds than regular corporate bonds whether they do any due diligence or not.

    That said, I can't articulate whether it makes sense to buy them or not buy them as part of monetary policy. It would seem this would be very distortionary to markets though but maybe it is necessary for liquidity.
    Ya I don't see how it is necessary .

  25. #171
    Quote Originally Posted by Krugminator2 View Post
    I am not sure where I stand on the Fed purchasing junk bonds. Seems like a bad idea and soft bailout to junk bond holders but maybe not. From a quick Google search they just bought junk bond ETFs which is what you said.
    13(3) does not grant authority to purchase ETFs, period. ETFs of defaulting bonds is icing on the cake.

    Your reasoning wouldn't factor into at all whether it made sense to buy junk bonds. If you are buying a portfolio of high yield bonds, some are going to default. That's why they yield more. This isn't an untenable risk as you said.
    Read 13(3) and the qualifications required for the Fed buying bonds. It explicitly states that the taxpayer shall not be put at risk and that the issuer proves it is not otherwise insolvent. Obviously neither of those circumstances have been met, if indeed the Fed now is on the hook for ETFs that contain bonds that are already insolvent. The whole reason they had to buy was because no one with any sense would lend money to companies that were likely to go out of business. The whole thing is a giant violation of the Fed's charter. "The Fed can only loan, it can not spend." Creating a money laundering shell company to spend newly created money into the stock market directly is not a loan. It is spending.

    Over time the Fed will make more by owning junk bonds than regular corporate bonds whether they do any due diligence or not.
    Irrelevant since the Fed is violating 13(3) by this whole operation. Whether they "make" money (a ridiculous statement on its face for obvious reasons...that's all the Fed does is "make" money) is irrelevant.

    That said, I can't articulate whether it makes sense to buy them or not buy them as part of monetary policy. It would seem this would be very distortionary to markets though but maybe it is necessary for liquidity.
    Everything the Fed and Treas has done since middle of last year has distorted markets. Now they're just finishing off the demolition of anything resembling a market and breaking the law in the process. Must be nice to create shell companies for the express purpose of money laundering, since when anyone else does that they go to prison for 20 years.
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul

    "We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book

  26. #172
    Quote Originally Posted by devil21 View Post
    13(3) does not grant authority to purchase ETFs, period. ETFs of defaulting bonds is icing on the cake.

    Read 13(3) and the qualifications required for the Fed buying bonds. It explicitly states that the taxpayer shall not be put at risk and that the issuer proves it is not otherwise insolvent. Obviously neither of those circumstances have been met, if indeed the Fed now is on the hook for ETFs that contain bonds that are already insolvent. The whole reason they had to buy was because no one with any sense would lend money to companies that were likely to go out of business. The whole thing is a giant violation of the Fed's charter. "The Fed can only loan, it can not spend." Creating a money laundering shell company to spend newly created money into the stock market directly is not a loan. It is spending.

    Irrelevant since the Fed is violating 13(3) by this whole operation. Whether they "make" money (a ridiculous statement on its face for obvious reasons...that's all the Fed does is "make" money) is irrelevant.

    Everything the Fed and Treas has done since middle of last year has distorted markets. Now they're just finishing off the demolition of anything resembling a market and breaking the law in the process. Must be nice to create shell companies for the express purpose of money laundering, since when anyone else does that they go to prison for 20 years.
    You my friend may be overestimating the importance of the law.

    The law is whatever the state says it is, day by day.

    If certain laws restraining Fed action prove inconvenient, those laws will either be changed or ignored (so far they've been ignored).

    I hear people, sensible people, say that a solvency crisis can't be solved with liquidity. That is, the life of a bankrupt company can only be extended for so long through increasingly lower-rate refinancing of their debt. Eventually the company must have profits, or at least revenues (!). That's true, in a way, but it also lacks imagination, if you try to see things from the perspective of a counterfeiter communist central banker. Right now, the Fed is buying debt to suppress rates, to allow favorable refinancing for cronies. When they buy this debt, they collect the associated interest payments and, eventually, principal amounts.

    But suppose they bought the debt and cancelled it; no interest or principal due ever (or perhaps it'll be "deferred until the crisis ends"). They could do the same with equities. Both would amount to straight cash gifts, to create profits, or even revenues, where none exist. If the Fed committed to this, companies could and would take advantage of it by issuing more debt/equity. It would be a way for the Fed to allow companies to print their own money, in effect, albeit in a controlled way. I'm not saying that's going to happen, but, if that needs to happen to prevent this bubble from becoming a dumpster fire, it will happen. And that's not even considering "MMT" (i.e. the usual welfare spending, but a lot more, and even more obviously inflation financed).

    We're currently shocked by what the Fed's doing, the sheer scale of it; I fear that in a few years, this is going to be peanuts.
    Last edited by r3volution 3.0; 05-28-2020 at 09:17 PM.

  27. #173
    5/28/20 - $7.145T

    $60B increase over last week. Balance sheet expansion appears to be slowing down.

  28. #174
    Quote Originally Posted by r3volution 3.0 View Post
    You my friend may be overestimating the importance of the law.

    The law is whatever the state says it is, day by day.

    If certain laws restraining Fed action prove inconvenient, those laws will either be changed or ignored (so far they've been ignored).
    That much is apparently true. I read the FAQ for the Main Street Lending Facilities they're about to roll out. Now, "insolvency" has become a flexible term and depends on when the borrower certifies that they started having funding problems. Pretty much all of it is on the honor system and due diligence is completely left up to the loan originating bank. The Fed will perform ZERO diligence on loans it buys through the SPV even though 13(3) requires it. They've officially thrown the FRA out the window and it's quite possible at this point that a behind-the-scenes change has been made where the Fed is no longer the Fed, as we knew it previously, since it's the Treasury actively backing all of these SPVs via the ESF, with the Fed appearing to act mostly as a pass-through entity. We won't know for years.

    I hear people, sensible people, say that a solvency crisis can't be solved with liquidity. That is, the life of a bankrupt company can only be extended for so long through increasingly lower-rate refinancing of their debt. Eventually the company must have profits, or at least revenues (!). That's true, in a way, but it also lacks imagination, if you try to see things from the perspective of a counterfeiter communist central banker. Right now, the Fed is buying debt to suppress rates, to allow favorable refinancing for cronies. When they buy this debt, they collect the associated interest payments and, eventually, principal amounts.
    The banks are collecting the earned money up front in the form of 1% processing fees, in the case of the Main Street SPVs, in exchange for their created. Earned money is what the banks care about since the rest of their "loans" are valueless accounting entries.

    But suppose they bought the debt and cancelled it; no interest or principal due ever (or perhaps it'll be "deferred until the crisis ends"). They could do the same with equities. Both would amount to straight cash gifts, to create profits, or even revenues, where none exist. If the Fed committed to this, companies could and would take advantage of it by issuing more debt/equity. It would be a way for the Fed to allow companies to print their own money, in effect, albeit in a controlled way. I'm not saying that's going to happen, but, if that needs to happen to prevent this bubble from becoming a dumpster fire, it will happen. And that's not even considering "MMT" (i.e. the usual welfare spending, but a lot more, and even more obviously inflation financed).
    The Fed can't spend, only lend. Handing out loans that are never intended to be collected is akin is spending. The Main Street SPVs don't require any payments until after a year. Indeed it is quite possible, if not likely, that all of this will never be paid back nor is it intended to be.

    We're currently shocked by what the Fed's doing, the sheer scale of it; I fear that in a few years, this is going to be peanuts.
    I don't see how the FRN lasts nearly that long, seeing how the petrodollar standard is unraveling in fast fashion. Hyperinflation is the only outcome if this money creation continues and even ramps up to ludicrous speed, without the ability to export the inflation to China and Europe, military bases, etc.

    But yeah your point overall is taken about the Fed and the FRA. They've always stuck to the rules, more or less, but I guess that's out the window now and no one, especially not Congress, who are stealing money hand over fist during all of this, cares one bit.
    Last edited by devil21; 05-29-2020 at 05:58 PM.
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul

    "We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book

  29. #175
    6/4/20 - $7.213T
    6/11/20 - $7.217T
    6/18/20 - $7.143T

    Incredibly, the Fed is reporting that their balance sheet actually shrunk $74B over the last week.

    ...
    This $74 billion decline in total assets during the week was powered by a plunge in repo balances and foreign central bank liquidity swaps, while some alphabet-soup programs also unwound. And the junk-bond and ETF buying program stalled.

    And there is a big shift happening: The Fed has started lending to entities, including states and banks, under programs that channel funds into spending by states, municipalities, and businesses, rather than into the financial markets. These types of programs are propping up consumption – not asset prices. That’s a new thing. I don’t think the hyper-inflated markets, which have soared only because the Fed poured $3 trillion into them, are ready for this shift.
    ...
    More: https://wolfstreet.com/2020/06/18/fe...njection-ends/

  30. #176
    According to this analysis, the Fed really did mostly jawbone about corporate bond purchases. Nowhere near the $750b cash water hose that was promised. Their buying was, by Fed standards at least, window dressing and mostly stopped last month.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/po...e-month-august

    As Johnson concludes, it suddenly seems "that for now the Fed does NOT have “your back” if you’re buying overvalued companies that lose money with no end in sight" and furthermore with CPI starting to run hot "it seems the Fed may be seeing the “fruits” of its recent jawboning (i.e., creating a bond bubble and bailing out asset holders during the worst economy in our lifetime, despite not taking any real action) souring a bit."
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul

    "We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book



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  32. #177
    Quote Originally Posted by devil21 View Post
    According to this analysis, the Fed really did mostly jawbone about corporate bond purchases. Nowhere near the $750b cash water hose that was promised. Their buying was, by Fed standards at least, window dressing and mostly stopped last month.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/po...e-month-august
    It's early. I think we've basically been in the same cycle since 2009. Crash - Print - Rebound - Crash - Print - Rebound ...

    Except the time between crashes keeps getting shorter, and the amount it takes to print to cause a rebound keeps getting bigger.

  33. #178
    Quote Originally Posted by devil21 View Post
    The Fed can't spend, only lend. Handing out loans that are never intended to be collected is akin is spending.
    Exactly, what's the difference between a zero coupon perpetual bond and a gift?

    The only reason they do this is to maintain the illusion that they're still in control, that they can reverse this at some point.

    They can't; they will print until the currency collapses (or at least is greatly devalued).

    I don't see how the FRN lasts nearly that long, seeing how the petrodollar standard is unraveling in fast fashion. Hyperinflation is the only outcome if this money creation continues and even ramps up to ludicrous speed, without the ability to export the inflation to China and Europe, military bases, etc.
    We're in agreement about the endgame, we'll see about timing.

    It doesn't much matter from an investing point of view; gold goes up fast or really fast.

  34. #179
    I haven't been posting updates to this thread, but I have been watching the Fed's balance sheet via their weekly reports. The Fed was bouncing around the $7T mark for several weeks, but it looks like the last two weeks are showing balance sheet growth again.

    9/10/20 - $7.059T (6B decrease from week before)
    9/17/20 - $7.113T (54B increase from week before)
    9/24/20 - $7.141T (28B increase from week before)

    If the Fed averages $30B a week increase, the balance sheet should hit $8T in about 29 weeks - just over half a year.

  35. #180
    Quote Originally Posted by r3volution 3.0 View Post
    I think we're saying the same thing in different ways.

    The fundamental economic problem is that the state's policies are diverting increasingly large quantities of resources toward relatively unproductive (if not actually consumptive) enterprises (e.g. "zombie companies"). Since the state finances these redistributions through inflation (because of political limits to conventional taxation), the end result will be inflationary. Barring a radical political change that would curb the growth of the state's economic interventions, we're going to experience declining economic growth and rising inflation. We should expect a repeat of the 1970s, except this time there will be no Volcker on a white horse. The misallocations are much worse now than they were c. 1980, and the liquidation required to correct them would be so painful that a Volcker-esque policy is politically impossible. I don't see any plausible argument for any outcome other than massive devaluation. That doesn't mean that there can't be a traditional, deflationary recession at some point (or several points) over the course of this future, because the Fed isn't always able to predict exactly when and how much it needs to print to prevent one, but they aren't going to allow the kind of cleansing liquidation that's necessary to fix the system. If they launched nearly half a trillion not-QE QE during relatively good times, imagine what they're going to do if/when GDP actually goes negative one quarter. Draghi's "whatever it takes" wasn't hyperbole.

    P.S. If you look at a chart of the federal funds rate, note how there have been lower highs and lower lows each cycle since c. 1980. In a way, that tells the whole story. There's lot of talk by central bankers and mainstream economists about the zero bound and unconventional monetary policy, even leaking into the popular press, but the silence as to why we're at this point, or what it really means, is deafening. They treat it like some kind of technical difficulty solvable by tweaking the XYZ lending facility, when actually it represents the terminal crisis of this monetary system.
    The banks have become a utility whose function is to purchase treasuries, the trillions and trillions of treasuries now coming to market.

    It's very much like what was done during the Second World War, with full mobilization.

    ...except that, this time, the country is utterly bankrupt, in peacetime, and cannot possibly recover.

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