Farm bankruptcies jump to highest level since 2011 as Trump’s tariffs bite

[TheCount]

A tit-for-tat tariff dispute between the Trump administration and China has piled on pressure in an already strained Farm Belt, leaving an increasing number of growers unable to stay afloat.

Farmers filed 580 Chapter 12 bankruptcy filings between January and September, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation, the largest farm advocacy group in the country. That was a 24% increase from the previous year and the highest level since 2011, when there were 676 filings.

China placed steep tariffs on US farm products last year to retaliate against punitive moves by the Trump administration, adding to challenges for farmers already faced with harsh weather conditions and low commodity prices. Those have sent exports sharply lower and made it difficult for growers to plan the next harvest.

"Farmers and ranchers struggle with a prolonged downturn in the farm economy that's been made worse by unfair retaliatory tariffs on US agriculture as well as two consecutive years of adverse planting, growing and harvesting conditions," said John Newton, the chief economist at the federation.

Ahead of the 2020 elections, the president has increasingly attempted to placate farmers who helped elect him in 2016. The Trump administration has announced nearly $30 billion in bailout programs designed to mitigate losses from the trade dispute.

But the unprecedented amount of government aid has raised concerns about misuse of funds and drawn backlash from agricultural groups and bipartisan lawmakers. Roughly 40% of farm income is expected to come from government aid, according to Department of Agriculture data analyzed by the federation.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/...-10-1028649836


Something something welfare

Something something subsidies

[Swordsmyth]

Anti-Trumpers agree: The president’s trade battle with China is hurting our economy and, in particular, America’s farmers. We are told that the tariff tiffs have caused a collapse in U.S. agricultural exports to China, and consequent heartbreak in our heartland.
It isn’t true.
As with most criticisms lodged against the Trump White House, this oft-repeated narrative is way overblown. Turns out, far from suffering what CNBC recently described as “a devastating year for farmers” the farmers of America overall are doing quite well.


The Department of Agriculture recently forecast that net farm income will rise nearly 5 percent this year, to $88 billion. That growth comes on top of increases in both 2017 and 2018 and is, just for the record, faster than the overall growth of the economy.
For sure, times could be better. The forecast for this year means that real net farm income would come in 36 percent below its peak of $136.5 billion in 2013 and slightly below its 2000-18 average ($90.1 billion). Farmers suffered a severe drop in total revenues during the Obama years, collapsing from $484 billion in 2013 to $412 billion in 2016. Weirdly, I don’t remember the media paying much attention.


Perhaps most startling, the DOA forecasts that the average farm will see net cash income increase more than 11 percent this year, “the first annual increase after 4 consecutive years of declines.” Moreover, the median income of farm households will be up almost 4 percent this year.
At the same time, farmers are getting richer; the net worth of the farm sector is likely to rise slightly this year, to $2.7 trillion, mostly because of higher real estate values.


In short, it turns out that as a whole our farmers are doing ok, or maybe even better than ok.
None of this prevents the liberal media from hyperventilating about farm-belt misery. A recent headline from an industry journal blares: “USDA Slashes U.S. Corn, Soybean Export Estimates To China.” Indeed, the USDA predicted that, thanks largely to a drop in corn and soybean shipments, total agricultural exports will decline 6 percent this year, to “the lowest level recorded since 2016.”
That sounds ominous, and seems to bolster the notion that Brazil is swooping in to supply Chinese soybean demand, thanks to the trade spat. But the story is not quite so simple. Brazil’s soybean exports to China, as it happens, are also falling, down 40 percent in August and off 14 percent through the first eight months of the year.
The reason? The dreaded swine fever, which through June had killed some 22 percent of China’s pig herds, the major consumers of soybeans. Some analysts are projecting that as much as half of China’s pig population could die. Fewer pigs, less soybean demand.
The real story is that even as soybean exports to China have dropped, pork exports have increased, due to the swine flu. Overall, the USDA projects that U.S. agricultural exports will be up slightly in the current fiscal year.
So how are America’s farmers responding to these fluctuations in markets and tariffs? The media would have us believe that the trade battle is sabotaging support for President Trump in farm country, throwing his reelection in jeopardy.
The Hill recently ran a story pumping that notion and quoting John Hansen, president of the Nebraska Farmers Union, who, the article states, “ripped President Trump" over his escalating trade war with China, calling it a “huge unforced error.”
The piece failed to mention that the Nebraska Farmers Union is a chapter of the National Farmers Union, a left-wing organization that donates money exclusively to farm-state Democrats and is committed to green energy and federal price supports for farm products. It opposes large-scale corporate farms and President Trump.

More at: https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/...tle-with-china

[TheCount]

Anti-Trumpers agree: The president’s trade battle with China is hurting our economy and, in particular, America’s farmers. We are told that the tariff tiffs have caused a collapse in U.S. agricultural exports to China, and consequent heartbreak in our heartland.
It isn’t true.
As with most criticisms lodged against the Trump White House, this oft-repeated narrative is way overblown. Turns out, far from suffering what CNBC recently described as “a devastating year for farmers” the farmers of America overall are doing quite well.


The Department of Agriculture recently forecast that net farm income will rise nearly 5 percent this year, to $88 billion. That growth comes on top of increases in both 2017 and 2018 and is, just for the record, faster than the overall growth of the economy.

If only either you, or the author of the article, were capable of clicking the links that you copy and paste. Here, I'll bring the information to you, so that you can be told. Here it is, directly from the link that you yourself posted:

Net farm income, a broad measure of profits, is forecast to increase $4.0 billion (4.8 percent) from 2018 to $88.0 billion in 2019.

Direct government farm payments are forecast to increase $5.8 billion (42.5 percent) to $19.5 billion in 2019, with most of the increase due to higher anticipated payments from the Market Facilitation Program.

https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/farm...come-forecast/

Yes, farm income is going to go up for the year. Every dollar of that increase (and more) comes to them directly from Uncle Sugar.

[Swordsmyth]

If only either you, or the author of the article, were capable of clicking the links that you copy and paste. Here, I'll bring the information to you, so that you can be told. Here it is, directly from the link that you yourself posted:


https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/farm...come-forecast/

Yes, farm income is going to go up for the year. Every dollar of that increase (and more) comes to them directly from Uncle Sugar.

There are also many different causes of financial problems for farmers that you are ignoring.
Maybe you didn't hear about the floods and the early frosts etc.?

[oyarde]

Any farmer going under would have anyway .

[TheCount]

There are also many different causes of financial problems for farmers that you are ignoring.
Maybe you didn't hear about the floods and the early frosts etc.?

Try reading:

Direct government farm payments are forecast to increase $5.8 billion (42.5 percent) to $19.5 billion in 2019, with most of the increase due to higher anticipated payments from the Market Facilitation Program.

Do you also need someone to tell you what the Market Facilitation Program is?

[Swordsmyth]

Try reading:


Do you also need someone to tell you what the Market Facilitation Program is?

And what does that have to do with what I said?


Farm produce prices are typical, the financial problems are not coming from tariffs.

[TheCount]

And what does that have to do with what I said?


Farm produce prices are typical, the financial problems are not coming from tariffs.

Sure thing, man. I think that I'll take what the USDA says (y'know, the source that you yourself actually quoted to support a point that, in the span of ten minutes, you've had to abandon for something else entirely different) over some straight up lies that you entirely made up just now.

[Zippyjuan]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/as-us-f...ere-cuts-jobs/

As U.S. farmers grapple with China trade war, Deere and Caterpillar cut jobs

The impact of China's move to greatly curb purchases of U.S. livestock and crops during the ongoing trade war with the U.S. is rippling beyond farmers into the broader agriculture-industrial complex.

Deere & Co., the maker of combines, tractors and other farm equipment, is indefinitely laying off more than 160 workers in Illinois and Iowa as demand for its farm equipment shrinks, Reuters reported. About 50 of those were cut from the Harvester Works plant in East Moline, Illinois, and some 118 additional workers in Iowa will be laid off starting Nov. 18, according to notices required by the state.

Farmers are struggling both because of bad weather and China's retaliatory move to curtail, or entirely halt, purchases of soybeans, corn and other products in retaliation for tariffs President Donald Trump imposed starting last year. Under a preliminary deal currently under discussion, China would commit to buying between $40 billion and $50 billion a year in American farm products, according to U.S. trade officials.

Experts are skeptical such a goal is achievable, however, and the two sides have yet to clinch a final agreement.

While farmers anxiously await a formal trade deal, makers of farming equipment are trimming their workforces amid sales declines. Caterpillar, which also makes farm equipment, earlier this month laid off 120 workers in Texas, citing market conditions and the trade war.

"Orders have sunk so low that I am lucky to have a job," Devin Spencer, an employee at the Harvester Works plant, told Reuters this week. "What happens if we don't get orders? I am out of the door."

Deere in September downgraded its outlook for equipment sales for the year, citing "trade uncertainty" as a factor and weaker customer demand. Caterpillar in October also said it would cut equipment production because of diminished orders and lowered its outlook for 2019.

[RonZeplin]

Wealth Spread fails again...

[Swordsmyth]

Sure thing, man. I think that I'll take what the USDA says (y'know, the source that you yourself actually quoted to support a point that, in the span of ten minutes, you've had to abandon for something else entirely different) over some straight up lies that you entirely made up just now.

The USDA doesn't say a thing about why farms are making less money, they just say how much money they are handing out and through what program.

Farms are not doing poorly because of tariffs, there are many other causes of trouble for them.

Try reading the article I posted:

A recent headline from an industry journal blares: “USDA Slashes U.S. Corn, Soybean Export Estimates To China.” Indeed, the USDA predicted that, thanks largely to a drop in corn and soybean shipments, total agricultural exports will decline 6 percent this year, to “the lowest level recorded since 2016.”
That sounds ominous, and seems to bolster the notion that Brazil is swooping in to supply Chinese soybean demand, thanks to the trade spat. But the story is not quite so simple. Brazil’s soybean exports to China, as it happens, are also falling, down 40 percent in August and off 14 percent through the first eight months of the year.
The reason? The dreaded swine fever, which through June had killed some 22 percent of China’s pig herds, the major consumers of soybeans. Some analysts are projecting that as much as half of China’s pig population could die. Fewer pigs, less soybean demand.
The real story is that even as soybean exports to China have dropped, pork exports have increased, due to the swine flu. Overall, the USDA projects that U.S. agricultural exports will be up slightly in the current fiscal year.

Looks like soy beans are off their record highs, but better than they were.

Eric Boehm pumping his soybean Armageddon over on Reason again today.

Trump's Trade War Continues To Crush Soybean Farmers
https://reason.com/2019/07/05/trumps...ybean-farmers/

For supposedly being populated by a bunch of brilliant economic theorists, the folks over at Reason sure have a difficult time realizing that agricultural commodities are fungible. When the current Administration started pissing in China's tofu on day one, the talking heads couldn't stop pushing stories about crashing markets and farm auctions the likes of which hadn't been seen since the Great Depression. Ignore the facts and keep pumping the narrative! Reason is as bad as the rest. Instead of a crashed soybean market, last year saw record exports.

U.S. Soy Sets Export Record in Market Year
https://soygrowers.com/news-releases...ing-september/

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. soybean farmers exported a record-breaking 2.6 billion bushels of U.S. soy and soy products, valued at more than $28 billion last market year. The U.S. also set a new record high in combined volume of the whole soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil exported in 2017/2018, with soybean meal exports accounting for the greatest growth.

Keep banging away on the keyboard Herr Doktor Boehm.
XNN

[Swordsmyth]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/as-us-f...ere-cuts-jobs/

More propaganda.

[TheCount]

The USDA doesn't say a thing about why farms are making less money, they just say how much money they are handing out and through what program.

Sure thing.

Farms are not doing poorly because of tariffs, there are many other causes of trouble for them.

Let's pretend for a minute that you're not lying.

Why is your Orange Idol giving them so much money through a program designed to help them recover the cost of tariffs, if tariffs are not the reason that they are doing poorly?

Try reading the article I posted:

I did. That's where I got the information that disproved your lies, remember?

[Swordsmyth]

Sure thing.



Let's pretend for a minute that you're not lying.

Why is your Orange Idol giving them so much money through a program designed to help them recover the cost of tariffs, if tariffs are not the reason that they are doing poorly?


I did. That's where I got the information that disproved your lies, remember?

You didn't disprove a thing, liar.

[TheCount]

You didn't disprove a thing, liar.

And your response dwindles to nothing but a shrill squeak of protest.

Net farm income, a broad measure of profits, is forecast to increase $4.0 billion (4.8 percent) from 2018 to $88.0 billion in 2019.

Direct government farm payments are forecast to increase $5.8 billion (42.5 percent) to $19.5 billion in 2019, with most of the increase due to higher anticipated payments from the Market Facilitation Program.

https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/farm...come-forecast/

Yes, farm income is going to go up for the year. Every dollar of that increase (and more) comes to them directly from Uncle Sugar.

[Swordsmyth]

And your response dwindles to nothing but a shrill squeak of protest.

Which does nothing to disprove what I said.

The farmers are having financial troubles to the degree that they are for many reasons that don't include tariffs and they aren't really doing that bad.

[AngryCanadian]

These Trump’s tariffs could hurt Trump even more in 2020. This could hurt him more then the impeachment hearings.

Trump's Section 232 autos tariff authority runs out of time, experts say


Trump's trade war is hurting China's economy, but it's giving Beijing an opportunity it never dreamed of

So while yes, China's economy is slowing, it is neither in emergency mode, nor dramatically changing in response to US economic concerns and desires.

Looks like Trump is clueless on China's foreign policy and the Tariffs kinda prove that.

[Swordsmyth]

These Trump’s tariffs could hurt Trump even more in 2020. This could hurt him more then the impeachment hearings.

It's easy to hurt him more than a farce that has helped but even that isn't likely to happen.

Trump's trade war is hurting China's economy, but it's giving Beijing an opportunity it never dreamed of



Looks like Trump is clueless on China's foreign policy and the Tariffs kinda prove that.

LOL

Total nonsense.

Charting China's Imminent Implosion

[phill4paul]

.... as well as two consecutive years of adverse planting, growing and harvesting conditions,"

...as well as two consecutive years of adverse planting, growing and harvesting conditions,"

...as well as two consecutive years of adverse planting, growing and harvesting conditions,"

[RPtotheWH]

.... as well as two consecutive years of adverse planting, growing and harvesting conditions,"

...as well as two consecutive years of adverse planting, growing and harvesting conditions,"

...as well as two consecutive years of adverse planting, growing and harvesting conditions,"

I don't get it.

[acptulsa]

MASA!

[acptulsa]

https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/...tle-with-china

More propaganda.

Yes. And all the embedded government bureau links too.

[TheCount]

Charting China's Imminent Implosion

That was 13 months ago.

What does imminent mean to you?

[Swordsmyth]

That was 13 months ago.

What does imminent mean to you?

In historical terms it could take a decade or several.
But it likely won't take that long.

[acptulsa]

Yes, farm income is going to go up for the year. Every dollar of that increase (and more) comes to them directly from Uncle Sugar.

And who is getting the money? Family farmers? Not so much. Monsanto and Archer Daniels Midland? Naturally!

[AngryCanadian]

It's easy to hurt him more than a farce that has helped but even that isn't likely to happen.



LOL

Total nonsense.

Charting China's Imminent Implosion

LOL what you posted is no more then pure nonsense as the nonsense by those trolls on YouTube and twitter who are claiming and waiting for a Russia's Imminent Implosion.

Keep on dreaming.

[Swordsmyth]

LOL what you posted is no more then pure nonsense as the nonsense by those trolls on YouTube and twitter who are claiming and waiting for a Russia's Imminent Implosion.

Keep on dreaming.

You are the one in dreamland.

[AngryCanadian]

You are the one in dreamland.

dont be surprised if another recession/Economic crisis happens while under Trump.
And liberals blame him for that.
There are things that i know more then you about these things.

[Swordsmyth]

dont be surprised if another recession/Economic crisis happens while under Trump.
And liberals blame him for that.
There are things that i know more then you about these things.

I won't be surprised.
But you should not be surprised if it doesn't.
And especially don't be surprised when China collapses. (Europe isn't looking too good right now either)

[AngryCanadian]

I won't be surprised.
But you should not be surprised if it doesn't.
And especially don't be surprised when China collapses. (Europe isn't looking too good right now either)

(Europe isn't looking too good right now either)

Europe hasn't looked since after the 90s ended. No thanks to the EU.

especially don't be surprised when China collapses

When China collapses so does America as currently America's economy rely heavily on Chinese product goods.

From Desktop parts, Mobile, Gaming systems do you realize how much that would hurt America's economy in general Oh and Japan as well?
China knows this to. They wont feel as much pain as America would.


If this collapsed happened during the 80s or 70s America would had probably survived. Now with so many companies and businesses that had left to Asia not just China don't even think on being positive.