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Thread: US losses from Trumpís China trade war will never be recovered, shipping data tells us

  1. #1

    US losses from Trumpís China trade war will never be recovered, shipping data tells us

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/13/trum...-tells-us.html

    President Trump announced a month ago that his administration had clinched a trade deal with China. Well, actually, the first in a series of deals, which the White House now refers to as ďphase one.Ē

    Since then, countless declarations of ďwinning,Ē but agreeing to a deal only ďif the terms are right,Ē have added to the year and half long conflicting cacophony of rhetoric about the content of any trade agreement with China.

    Bottom line? The constant bluster has blurred the reality of what a deal would even accomplish, if anything at all. The only way to shovel away the pile of broken promises and contradictory comments is to analyze the flow of maritime trade.

    Why? With 90% of all items in a house transported over water, it is the purest form of showing supply and demand. The flow of trade is agnostic. It moves regardless of who is ďwinningĒ or ďlosing.Ē

    The impact of this trade war and the opportunities lost by American businesses both large and small can not only be tracked by the public earnings reports, but through American exports.

    And a deal, no matter what is agreed on, would never make up for the losses sustained during this trade war, according to calculations based on the decrease in volumes of containers, cargo and tankers that traveled into U.S. ports.

    Dropping export volume

    For a perspective on the losses, look no further than the Port of Los Angeles, the largest port in the country. U.S. exports to China from the bustling harbor decreased for 12 consecutive months. It suffered a 19.1% drop in export volume when comparing October 2019 with the same month in 2018.

    Chinaís retaliatory tariffs hit 96.6% of the purchases of U.S. exports that traveled through the L.A. port complex, with a price tag of $19.9 billion.

    Add on the additional retaliatory tariffs from the other countries the U.S. is sparring with on trade, and that brings the total of impacted export cargo to $20.2 billion, or 28.8% of all export value through the L.A. port system. Considering 95% of the worldís consumers are outside of the U.S., the tariffs imposed on American goods have priced them out of the global marketplace.

    The receipt of losses is long and varied. The trade war expands beyond agriculture, which is $11 billion in the hole (and counting). The promises of President Trump of the $40 billion to $50 billion in agriculture buys by the Chinese in phase one is just an overblown headline. If you crunch the numbers, the two years before the trade war, the agriculture business community made $49.807 billion. China would have to buy $50 billion over the course of two years to make it a ďwin.Ē But is it really? If it was a win shouldnít the lost revenue be added to that?

    Agriculture is not the only sector trying to fill the leaking China bucket.

    Data have shown China is expanding its LNG relationships with Qatar and Australia while essentially shutting off the United States.

    Before the trade war, U.S. LNG volumes comprised 4.3% of Chinese imports and China accounted for 16% trailing twelve-month basis (TTM) of U.S. LNG exports.

    In August 2019, Chinaís LNG volumes had slipped precipitously to 1% (TTM). Crude has also suffered a similar fate, accounting for 20% (TTM) of U.S. crude exports in Jan. 2018 to only 1.2% (TTM) in August 2019.

    President Xi continues to press forward with the countryís Belt Road Initiative and China 2025 inking trade deals.

    The flow of trade proves how China is moving away from the United States and turning to Europe.

    Retail and technology have announced losses in the billions. According to the National Retail Federation, consumers and businesses have paid an additional $38 billion from the start of the trade war in February 2018 through September 2019. The Consumer Technology Association says the September tariffs added about $15.5 billion in extra tariffs.

    So as the bluster blows and promises of winning mount, the actual flow of trade paints a very different picture.
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    The quality seems to have dropped significantly since I came here, I guess you get what you pay for.
    I am Zippy and I approve of this post. But you don't have to.



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  3. #2
    And the gains will never be lost.

    We lose far more to China as long as we allow them to wage trade warfare against us unopposed.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  4. #3
    Indeed the losses won't be recovered. Resources which are consumed cannot be un-consumed. Regardless of the final outcome, the resources which went into factories etc, now abandoned due to either the tariffs themselves or the uncertainty about future tariffs, are gone - those bits of steel will rust away, those hours of labor used to put those bits together will have been for naught. Multiply this by a large number and you can explain why the Congo now is, or Europe a few centuries ago was, dirt poor. No one's going to save and invest under those circumstances. They make for high time-preference, consumptive behavior.

    On the other hand, big wallz, big deelz, big reelection campaignz...

    ...and that's what really matters to the people running the show, a secure seat on the gravy train.
    Last edited by r3volution 3.0; 11-13-2019 at 09:10 PM.
    "Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard."

    -H. L. Mencken

  5. #4
    Trump and the glue sniffer, MAGA hat sycophants in Congress who believe in economic isolation are the worst.

    The US is behind China in 5G technology. They could get up to speed if they would work with a couple of foreign companies. That would cause a windfall for those companies. Since they are foreign companies, glue sniffer Senator doesn't like it one bit. It is funny a ton of libertarian, center right, and conservatives want to get this done. But anti-business Democrats and glue sniffing Republicans want to take the route that will take 5 to 10 years just because foreign companies would profit. And glue sniffer praises Trump daily and Trump is stupid so he is listening to said glue sniffer who has insanely powerful position in the Senate for someone addicted to glue.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gi...ice-2019-11-11

  6. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by Krugminator2 View Post
    Trump and the glue sniffer, MAGA hat sycophants in Congress who believe in economic isolation are the worst.

    The US is behind China in 5G technology. They could get up to speed if they would work with a couple of foreign companies. That would cause a windfall for those companies. Since they are foreign companies, glue sniffer Senator doesn't like it one bit. It is funny a ton of libertarian, center right, and conservatives want to get this done. But anti-business Democrats and glue sniffing Republicans want to take the route that will take 5 to 10 years just because foreign companies would profit. And glue sniffer praises Trump daily and Trump is stupid so he is listening to said glue sniffer who has insanely powerful position in the Senate for someone addicted to glue.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gi...ice-2019-11-11


    China is an enemy intent on destroying us and has already stolen much money and technology from us.
    Continuing to aid their rise to world dominance is suicide and would destroy liberty forever.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  7. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post


    China is an enemy intent on destroying us and has already stolen much money and technology from us.
    Continuing to aid their rise to world dominance is suicide and would destroy liberty forever.
    I agree. So why is Trump ceding the wireless networks to them?

  8. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Krugminator2 View Post
    I agree. So why is Trump ceding the wireless networks to them?
    He isn't.
    He's keeping them out.
    So are other countries with a brain, and even those with half a brain are keeping them half out.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  9. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    He isn't.
    He's keeping them out.
    So are other countries with a brain, and even those with half a brain are keeping them half out.
    What??!? That doesn't even make sense. He is keeping the US from having any say. China is already way ahead of us. His disorganized FCC and listening to MAGA hat buffoons is preventing the US from catching up. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/07/chin...e-network.html

    Some background https://thehill.com/blogs/congress-b...kvZUyY.twitter https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-gov...gy-11573527840



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  11. #9
    How much did you lose to them ? No losses for me .
    Do something Danke



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