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Thread: Orange County, longtime GOP stronghold, now has more registered Democrats than Republicans

  1. #1

    Exclamation Orange County, longtime GOP stronghold, now has more registered Democrats than Republicans

    Texas is next.

    The rest of the country will follow.



    Orange County, longtime GOP stronghold, now has more registered Democrats than Republicans

    https://www.latimes.com/politics/sto...an-republicans

    By SEEMA MEHTA, MELANIE MASON

    AUG. 7, 2019 7:26 AM

    Orange County, long a Republican stronghold, has officially turned blue.

    The county that nurtured Ronald Reagan’s conservatism and is the resting place of Richard Nixon is now home to 547,458 registered Democrats, compared with 547,369 Republicans, according to statistics released early Wednesday morning by the county Registrar of Voters. And the number of voters not aligned with a political party has surged in recent years, and now tops 440,770, or 27.4% of the county’s voters.

    Democratic leaders attributed the shift to changing demographics, aggressive recruitment efforts and President Trump.

    (Everything else is secondary. The migrant invasion is what changed this, period. - AF)

    “Trump’s toxic rhetoric and exclusionary policies alienate women, millennials, suburban voters, immigrants and people of color — critical components of the electorate in Orange County,” said Katerina Ioannides, chairwoman of the Orange County Young Democrats, which conducted voter registration drives aimed at young voters, one of several groups that worked to increase party registration. “The Republican Party’s platform no longer resonates in a rapidly diversifying, increasingly college-educated Orange County.”

    Shawn Steel, Republican national committeeman for California, blamed the GOP decline on the large increase in the number of voters who register with no party preference, and on Republicans leaving the state because of high housing costs, poor schools and lackluster job opportunities.

    Registered Democrats have overtaken registered Republicans in Orange County.
    Registered Democrats have closed the gap with registered Republicans in Orange County as reflected in the record of voter registration that have been filed with the California Secretary of State's office between Feb. 10, 2013 and Feb. 10, 2019.(Chris Keller / Los Angeles Times)
    “We have a tremendous outflow of people leaving California. We’ve been an out-migration state for 20 years, and that’s particularly acute in the suburbs,” said the Seal Beach resident, who predicted that the tide would turn because of overreach by the Democratic politicians who control every arm of state government. “There is an opportunity as Democrats get more aggressive in Sacramento and alienate more people.”

    But Democrats gaining an edge here over Republicans is a watershed moment for a place that has long been a citadel of GOP strength — and one that could have national implications for the future of the Republican Party if similar shifts occur in other parts of the country.

    la-1541235435-tvef36w09p-snap-image
    POLITICS
    In Orange County, land of reinvention, even its conservative politics is changing
    Nov. 5, 2018
    What’s happened in Orange County is also unfolding in other large, affluent suburbs that Republicans have long counted on to offset Democratic votes in the nation’s large cities, said Stu Rothenberg, veteran political analyst and senior editor at Inside Elections. He described the areas as mainly “upscale suburbs with college-educated voters who have more suburban and cosmopolitan concerns.”

    “They see the Republican Party as intolerant old white men,” he said.

    Once covered with citrus groves and ranches, Orange County became a suburban haven of tract homes and master-planned communities full of white people fleeing Los Angeles, Midwesterners seeking warmth and workers with ties to the aerospace and defense industries.

    The John Birch Society had dozens of chapters in the county, and the phenomenon of megachurches was born there. The county was also home to a large community of wealthy Republican businessmen, including Donald Bren of the Irvine Co. and Carl Karcher of Carl’s Jr., as well as famous conservatives such as John Wayne.

    Balboa Island home has a Trump 2020 flag
    A home on Balboa Island features a Trump 2020 flag.(Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)
    They preached a form of “cowboy capitalism” that made the county a must-stop for GOP candidates from across the nation, said Fred Smoller, a political science professor at Chapman University in Orange.

    Reagan’s first political fundraiser took place in Anaheim in 1965 when he was running for governor; in 1984, when he ran for reelection to the White House, he won 75% of the county’s vote.

    Former GOP strategist Reed Galen recalled counting on the county during campaigns for President George W. Bush, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and presidential candidate Sen. John McCain.

    “It was never a question of whether or not you would win Orange County,” he said. “The idea that you could lose it wasn’t even on the books.”

    But the county has been trending left in recent years because of changing demographics — growing numbers of college-educated voters as well as minorities and immigrants.

    Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump there by nearly 5 percentage points in the 2016 presidential election, the first time a Democrat won the county since the Great Depression. Franklin D. Roosevelt won Orange County in his 1936 contest against challenger Alf Landon.

    In 2018, Democrats flipped four Republican-held congressional seats in the county — wins that were key to the party taking control of the House of Representatives.

    Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine), who unseated Republican Rep. Mimi Walters in that election, was celebratory about the voter registration news, but said it was important for Democrats to not grow complacent.

    Congresswoman Katie Porter
    Congresswoman Katie Porter (D-Irvine) greets people at Kean Coffee in Tustin.(Ana Venegas / For The Times)
    “We owe this to the local college student who knocked on doors, the single mom who phone-banked, and the retired senior who volunteered to register voters; because of all of their hard work we now have more voices from all backgrounds included in our democratic process than ever before,” Porter said.

    “We welcome this news as we continue to build on the progress of last year,” she said. “We must keep the pressure up as we fight to solidify these gains in 2020 and keep Orange County blue.”

    Matthew Harper, a former Republican state assemblyman from Huntington Beach who lost his seat to a Democrat by 5 percentage points in 2018, noted that Democrats had success in Orange County in the past. In the 1970s, in the post-Watergate era, they held a majority of the region’s legislative delegation, including the seat he used to hold.

    “It has been a cycle,” Harper said. “It has been a pendulum.”

    He said he believed the party could rebound in Orange County once the nation’s political environment is less polarized.

    “The Republican Party has always been a center-right party, and that’s the natural inclination of Orange County voters,” he said.

    Lucas Uhm, Andrea Madrid
    Interns Lucas Uhm, left, and Andrea Madrid help the Democratic Party of Orange County register voters in Orange, Calif.(Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)
    Randall Avila, executive director of the Orange County Republican Party, said as the population has changed, Democrats have been more aggressively registering voters.

    “It just means we need to step up our game; we need to rise to the occasion and competitiveness of the county now,” Avila said, noting that the county GOP regularly registers voters at naturalization ceremonies, the DMV, and at events like the Orange County Fair and the Garden Grove Strawberry Festival.

    Avila said many Democratic gains were coming in swaths of the county that are already solidly blue, and he pointed to the exponentially surging numbers of voters who are not affiliated with any political party, a phenomenon seen across the state.

    la-1560547607-ucids1gfvn-snap-image
    POLITICS
    2020: Democratic primaries and key dates on the presidential election calendar
    May 15, 2019
    The changing voter patterns in Orange County are similar to those that have occurred in places like Montgomery County outside of Philadelphia and Fairfax County in northern Virginia. Such areas historically backed moderate or even conservative Republicans, but in the last 20 to 30 years have trended more Democratic.

    Although some of these shifts have been propelled by changing demographics, they are also part of a broader national political realignment.

    White working-class, non-college-educated voters are increasingly aligning with Republicans over cultural and social issues, while college-educated voters are increasingly at odds with a national GOP that has grown more hardline on issues such as immigration, according to political experts.

    “It’s a combination of suburbs becoming more racially/ethnically diverse, but also some significant changes in attitudes in the embrace of and welcoming of more diverse populations,” Rothenberg said.

    Marti Schrank
    Marti Schrank has been a volunteer with the Democratic Party of Orange County since 1972.(Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)
    Rothenberg pointed to the Atlanta suburbs, the North Carolina cities of Charlotte and Greensboro, and a number of areas in Texas that could be primed for a political turnaround like that of Orange County.

    And even though Democrats have gotten their hopes up in Texas and Georgia before, only to see their expectations fall short, Rothenberg said the tilt leftward in these states may be speeding up.

    Democrats from Texas, Arizona and Nevada have already been in touch with their compatriots in Orange County to discuss strategy.

    “If it can happen in Orange County, it can happen anywhere,” said Ada Briceño, chairwoman of the Orange County Democratic Party. “This is a lesson not to dismiss historically Republican-dominated areas, but to dig in deeper and engage with people, especially those who have never been engaged in our political process.”

    The shift could immediately come into play in several congressional races in 2020, notably in Texas.

    Four Republican congressmen in the Lone Star State have signaled they will step down at the end of this term, most recently Rep. Kenny Marchant, who announced on Monday his plan to retire in 2020.

    Marchant, who represents the suburban communities between Dallas and Ft. Worth, first won the seat in 2004, beating his Democratic rival by 30 percentage points. In 2018, his margin of victory over his Democratic challenger was just 3 points.

    Cal Jillson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University in Dallas, said Marchant’s district, along with those in the Houston suburbs and along the border both vacated by sitting Republicans, will probably be very competitive in 2020.

    The political shift, Jillson said, was “inevitable — but Trump brought it on more quickly.”



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  3. #2
    More purple than blue with "no party" gaining rapidly on both Democrats and Republicans who are virtually tied. Only 89 more registered Democrats than Republicans out of 1.6 million registered voters.

    547,458 registered Democrats.

    547,369 registered Republicans

    440,711 no party preference.

    https://www.ocvote.com/datacentral/
    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 08-07-2019 at 12:45 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    The quality seems to have dropped significantly since I came here, I guess you get what you pay for.
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  4. #3
    I would believe this because Democrats have creep into educational institutions this is why in long time Republican held areas leftists have being regaining and they are also playing a game of fire with demographics.
    The Republicans should have controlled the educational institutions a little better.

  5. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by AngryCanadian View Post
    I would believe this because Democrats have creep into educational institutions this is why in long time Republican held areas leftists have being regaining and they are also playing a game of fire with demographics.
    The Republicans should have controlled the educational institutions a little better.
    Leftists invest in foundational politics with foresight in the decades. Those on the right are more short sighted and rather debate policies and candidates every election cycle.

    This is why the left controls so much of the institutions.


    Schools and the young are a big reason nobody is registering GOP anymore. I admit when I was in high school 10+ years ago. I despised republicans for no actual reason and many were the same, even though literally nobody cared. Can you even imagine what the political environment is like today?

    Even if one lived in Orange County, the reputation of Trump in liberal culture likely give many new registrants no choice but to check "no party preference" instead of GOP. Look at the way people are responding to anonymous polls. But they will show up on election day. This might be a good thing going into 2020 though. It'll be a repeat of 2016, 95% victory for Hilary.
    Last edited by eleganz; 08-07-2019 at 02:46 PM.
    How to plug a TWEET in post [ TWEET] [/TWEET ]

  6. #5
    Shawn Steel, Republican national committeeman for California, blamed the GOP decline on the large increase in the number of voters who register with no party preference
    Don’t underestimate that effect. But yeah, Republicans are aging out in California, and not being replaced with new Republicans.
    Twitter: B4Liberty@USAB4L
    "Foreign aid is taking money from the poor people of a rich country, and giving it to the rich people of a poor country." - Ron Paul
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  7. #6
    Why do you think all the illegal immigrants were flooded in for?
    My website: https://www.theherbsofthefield.com/

    "No one is useless in this world who lightens the burdens of another.” ~ Charles Dickens

  8. #7
    When did this website get caught up in all that D versus R crap?

    Remember back when refusing to support McCain and Romney was the default position in the general elections of '08 and '12?

  9. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Anti Federalist View Post
    Shawn Steel, Republican national committeeman for California, blamed the GOP decline on the large increase in the number of voters who register with no party preference, and on Republicans leaving the state because of high housing costs, poor schools and lackluster job opportunities.
    Hmmmmm.......

    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    More purple than blue with "no party" gaining rapidly on both Democrats and Republicans who are virtually tied. Only 89 more registered Democrats than Republicans out of 1.6 million registered voters.

    547,458 registered Democrats.

    547,369 registered Republicans

    440,711 no party preference.

    https://www.ocvote.com/datacentral/
    The real question is how do the 440,711 lean?
    9/11 Thermate experiments

    Winston Churchhill on why the U.S. should have stayed OUT of World War I

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    The only way I see Trump as likely to affect any real change would be through martial law, and that has zero chances of success without strong buy-in by the JCS at the very minimum.



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  11. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Superfluous Man View Post
    When did this website get caught up in all that D versus R crap?

    Remember back when refusing to support McCain and Romney was the default position in the general elections of '08 and '12?
    I supported Ron Paul (R) and even supported him when he was an (I).
    My website: https://www.theherbsofthefield.com/

    "No one is useless in this world who lightens the burdens of another.” ~ Charles Dickens

  12. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by donnay View Post
    I supported Ron Paul (R) and even supported him when he was an (I).
    He was never an (I).

    And he never represented the Rs as their presidential nominee. When he lost to McCain and Romney, he refused to endorse either one, and most here joined him in that. He did the same with Trump in '16.

    I bet if I look back in the archives I can find posts by you, AF, and others who are now cheerleaders for team R, where you all denigrated the very same blind partisanship you're now exemplifying.

  13. #11
    I grew up in OC. I was in elementary school when Nixon ran against Humphrey. We were assigned a project in which we looked up articles in newspapers and magazines about the candidate of our choice. We subscribed to the LA Times which was as thick as a big city phone book every day. Out of the entire grade, one girl did her project about Humphrey, and that’s because her dad was one of the editors of the Herald Examiner.
    Do something Dodgers.

  14. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by Superfluous Man View Post
    I bet if I look back in the archives I can find posts by you, AF, and others who are now cheerleaders for team R, where you all denigrated the very same blind partisanship you're now exemplifying.
    I am quite sure you can, as I have voted for Ron Paul in the last three presidential elections, just for starters.

    I am merely proving a point.

    Flood a state or county with migrant invaders and it turns blue.

    No questions.

  15. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by Superfluous Man View Post
    He was never an (I).
    My mistake I meant "L" not "I".

    Quote Originally Posted by Superfluous Man View Post
    And he never represented the Rs as their presidential nominee. When he lost to McCain and Romney, he refused to endorse either one, and most here joined him in that. He did the same with Trump in '16.
    Uh huh but Dr. Paul was still a member of the GOP nevertheless. I don't blindly follow anyone, including Dr. Paul.

    Quote Originally Posted by Superfluous Man View Post
    I bet if I look back in the archives I can find posts by you, AF, and others who are now cheerleaders for team R, where you all denigrated the very same blind partisanship you're now exemplifying.
    Knock yourself out. In 2004, I voted for Michael Badnarik for President. I refused to vote for George W. Bush (R).
    Last edited by donnay; 08-07-2019 at 04:49 PM.
    My website: https://www.theherbsofthefield.com/

    "No one is useless in this world who lightens the burdens of another.” ~ Charles Dickens

  16. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by jmdrake View Post
    Hmmmmm.......



    The real question is how do the 440,711 lean?
    Hard to say since the Democrats running the state implemented ballot harvesting.

    Orange County’s registrar of voters, Neal Kelley, told the San Francisco Chronicle that the county “certainly had that going on here, with people dropping off maybe 100 or 200 ballots. Fred Whitaker, the chairman of the Republican Party in Orange County, told supporters that GOP losses in the county were the “direct result of ballot harvesting allowed under California law for the first time,” the Chronicle reported.
    ...
    https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com...htmlstory.html
    Orange County turned all blue after Democrats found hundreds of thousands of votes post election day.

    Republicans such as Mimi Walters, Dana Rohrabacher and Young Kim were all ahead election night only to lose their races after late ballots were counted.

    The amount of mail-in ballots counted in Orange County were unprecedented – a whopping 250,000 ballots were produced in OC as a result of the new “ballot harvesting” law.

    The voting system in California is so bad that a Democrat in California’s 21st district who was down by 6.4% on election night ended up winning three weeks later.

    The Democrats don’t even hide their blatant voter fraud anymore – they just pass laws to make election fixing legal and the Republican party just sits back and allows it.
    ...
    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/201...n-republicans/
    Twitter: B4Liberty@USAB4L
    "Foreign aid is taking money from the poor people of a rich country, and giving it to the rich people of a poor country." - Ron Paul
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    The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own, and do not represent this forum or any other entities or persons.

  17. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Superfluous Man View Post
    When did this website get caught up in all that D versus R crap?

    Remember back when refusing to support McCain and Romney was the default position in the general elections of '08 and '12?
    About the time the Demoncrats wen full retard satanist communist.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

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  18. #16
    GOP must be outraged about this. They thought they'd keep that area red no matter what.
    "Perhaps one of the most important accomplishments of my administration is minding my own business."

    Calvin Coolidge



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  20. #17

  21. #18
    I wonder how many are dead? When Republicans die, that's it. When Democrats die, they keep on voting.

  22. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by CoastieInColorado View Post
    I wonder how many are dead? When Republicans die, that's it. When Democrats die, they keep on voting.
    Sometimes dead republicans vote Demoncrat too.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  23. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Sometimes dead republicans vote Demoncrat too.
    Lol, I would bet they always do.

  24. #21

  25. #22

  26. #23

  27. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by Anti Federalist View Post
    Texas is next.

    The rest of the country will follow.



    Orange County, longtime GOP stronghold, now has more registered Democrats than Republicans

    When we get the right leadership at the top... Texas, Orange Country (and even Mexico, Venez, Iran ) all would start respecting GOP conservatives again.







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