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Thread: Can Justin Amash Win Reelection As An Independent?

  1. #1

    Can Justin Amash Win Reelection As An Independent?




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  3. #2
    NO
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  4. #3
    I don't think Amash can win.

  5. #4
    The odds are against him, but he can win re-election. I'd say he has a better chance than Rand or Ron's presidential runs, and everyone here supported those. Justin's chances will improve if there's a bloody primary and both sides end up choosing terrible candidates. That is happening so far, at least on the Republican side.
    Support Justin Amash for Congress
    Michigan Congressional District 3

  6. #5
    Pure guess but I would say 15% to win. I am not actually sure how he would do it but seems possible. It is such a Republican District and Trump is less popular than usual there. If the Republicans have an unknown candidate and the Dems have a weak candidate then seems like the incumbent Rep could win.

    The problem is Amash is always underfunded but this time even less so. He won't have any of the super PACs like Club for Growth dumping money into the race and won't have people like the DeVos's backing him.

    A better question is do Dems win a safe Republican district? Also does Amash run on the LP ticket? (I think so.)

  7. #6
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    I would guess it will be very difficult for him. Getting elected to D.C. outside of the 2 party system is tough.
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  8. #7
    Honestly I'm not sure if he can win. Everything thats been going on with him the past couple months has got me perplexed. I can't make heads or tails of it. Calling for Trumps impeachment, believing the Russiagate BS. I can't tell if hes doing it of his own volition or if the Deep State has something on him and and they're using it to effectively kill his political career. That being said, hes got a score of 94% based on the Freedom Index. Whoever replaces him will be a downgrade.
    Last edited by Anti Globalist; 08-01-2019 at 06:59 PM.
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  9. #8
    Nobody thought that a$$hat trump could win, and he did. By gosh, he did.

    Personally, I'm rooting for Amash. I see an Amash win as a gateway to other principled statesmen/women who want to break away from being party wh0res. It would also be nice to have another example of "electability" and this whole 2 party paradigm that folks are always pitching. Just think of the doors that could open, and the message an Amash win could send...

    Gulag Chief:
    "Article 58-1a, twenty five years... What did you get it for?"
    Gulag Prisoner: "For nothing at all."
    Gulag Chief: "You're lying... The sentence for nothing at all is 10 years"





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  11. #9
    No, but it is worth the effort and time. Less the Republican establishment can spend in other liberty primary race campaigns.

  12. #10
    Can we get another crunch on those numbers? What's the latest poll? Is he electable yet?

    Gulag Chief:
    "Article 58-1a, twenty five years... What did you get it for?"
    Gulag Prisoner: "For nothing at all."
    Gulag Chief: "You're lying... The sentence for nothing at all is 10 years"



  13. #11
    Amash's fundraising is not keeping pace with opponents considering he's the incumbent. He also only has $201K on hand. He will need a really bloody Republican primary to have a decent chance.

    MI-03 Fundraising Totals:

    Justin Amash $293,980

    GOP Primary
    Peter Meijer $410,149 ($100K self funded)
    Rep. James Lower $251,749
    Joel Langlois $246,669
    Rep. Lynn Aflendoulis $159,371

    Dem Primary
    Nick Clovin $246,193
    Hillary Scholten $233,708


    https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/MI/03/2020/
    Support Justin Amash for Congress
    Michigan Congressional District 3

  14. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by EBounding View Post
    Amash's fundraising is not keeping pace with opponents considering he's the incumbent. He also only has $201K on hand. He will need a really bloody Republican primary to have a decent chance.

    MI-03 Fundraising Totals:

    Justin Amash $293,980

    GOP Primary
    Peter Meijer $410,149 ($100K self funded)
    Rep. James Lower $251,749
    Joel Langlois $246,669
    Rep. Lynn Aflendoulis $159,371

    Dem Primary
    Nick Clovin $246,193
    Hillary Scholten $233,708


    https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/MI/03/2020/
    Honestly, Peter Meijer seemed surprisingly good when I saw things he had said. Has Amash said anything about him?

  15. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by EBounding View Post
    The odds are against him, but he can win re-election. I'd say he has a better chance than Rand or Ron's presidential runs, and everyone here supported those. Justin's chances will improve if there's a bloody primary and both sides end up choosing terrible candidates. That is happening so far, at least on the Republican side.
    Straight ticket voting will make it practically impossible, I think. The "Party Faithful" are the most likely to turn out in the primary.
    *******

    I didn't start out thinking that anti-vax people were fools or impervious to reason, it's from my experience here that I now think that.
    - AmyPi 2014 (RIP)

    Anti-vaxxers, responsible for a 30 percent uptick in totally preventable diseases in the world, have blood on their hands. They shouldn't be considered civilized members of society. If they refuse to listen to a century of scientific studies confirming time and time again that vaccination is an unquestionable good for humanity, then it's time for us to start treating anti-vaxxers as what they are: dangerous and worthy of shame and condemnation. If we can't convince anti-vaxxers to change their minds, we must attach enough social stigma to the delusion that agnostics cease to join them.

  16. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by Superfluous Man View Post
    Honestly, Peter Meijer seemed surprisingly good when I saw things he had said. Has Amash said anything about him?
    Meijer's rhetoric and philosophy does seem close to Amash's. I know he donated to Amash in the past, but I doubt he'll be as principled if elected.

    Quote Originally Posted by angelatc View Post
    Straight ticket voting will make it practically impossible, I think. The "Party Faithful" are the most likely to turn out in the primary.
    Yeah....I have to agree.
    Support Justin Amash for Congress
    Michigan Congressional District 3

  17. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by EBounding View Post
    Meijer's rhetoric and philosophy does seem close to Amash's. I know he donated to Amash in the past, but I doubt he'll be as principled if elected.
    That won't be hard, it would be harder for him to avoid being more principled than Amash who just abstained from voting against the resolution to condemn withdrawing troops from Syria.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  18. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    That won't be hard, it would be harder for him to avoid being more principled than Amash who just abstained from voting against the resolution to condemn withdrawing troops from Syria.
    ADS?
    "It's probably the biggest hoax since Big Foot!" - Mitt Romney 1-16-2012 SC Debate



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  20. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by tfurrh View Post
    ADS?
    Amash has TDS and has let it get the better of his principles. (If he ever really had any)
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  21. #18
    No why is 538 even wasting their time with this?

    Amash, as much as we all love him, put emotion over election. Which is admirable because he is sticking to his beliefs til the end.

    But now he is no longer able to push the message, he will probably go back to the private sector poking his head out in libertarian events every so often to rile up the niche base that nobody cares about anyway. Now its just Massie and Rand.
    Rand Paul : Ultimately, if someone's going to accuse you of something that's going to bring down a presidency, I think we deserve to know who that person is.
    Quote Originally Posted by r3volution 3.0 View Post
    What a grotesque embarrassment Rand has become
    Ron Paul : If you're accused of a crime, you have the right to face your accuser.
    So if Rand Paul holds the same exact position as his father, it makes him embarrassing?

    Hmmm...ok r3volution 3.0

  22. #19
    More than likely not.
    __________________________________________________ ________________
    "A politician will do almost anything to keep their job, even become a patriot" - Hearst

  23. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by eleganz View Post
    No why is 538 even wasting their time with this?

    Amash, as much as we all love him, put emotion over election. Which is admirable because he is sticking to his beliefs til the end.
    Which is absurd because the two are not mutually exclusive.

    Look at Thomas... he hasn't sold out at all, still retains his credibility.
    __________________________________________________ ________________
    "A politician will do almost anything to keep their job, even become a patriot" - Hearst

  24. #21

  25. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by enhanced_deficit View Post
    It's still early. But the way sands are shifting lately, won't be surprised if he won in a landslide.


    CBS News poll: Majority of Americans approve of Trump impeachment inquiry

    Those polls are just as fake as Amash.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  26. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Amash has TDS and has let it get the better of his principles. (If he ever really had any)
    I don't think that is fair. Amash had great principles and a fantastic voting record. Although, I don't really understand what has happened to him lately. I'm pretty disappointed.
    ================
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  27. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Those polls are just as fake as Amash.
    Polls very well could be fakenews, even if NBC is touting average of 500 polls this time.

    Who do you think America-First US public in the end would find more trustworthy, an Israeli military soldier and top US globalist neocon funded former reality star/gambling casino success story turned politician or someone not tainted by foreign-firster lobbies money and track record of principled stands?


    View Poll Results:

    Poll: How much trust do you put in current President's promises and statements?

    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Since he frequently contradicts himself his statements can't be trusted at all, you have to watch his actions to even guess about his positions or plans.



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  29. #25
    No, and he should just retire.

    He decided to let his hatred of Trump cloud his (already poor) judgment and needs to pay the price.

  30. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by RealJamesMiller View Post
    No, and he should just retire.

    He decided to let his hatred of Trump cloud his (already poor) judgment and needs to pay the price.
    You're looking for TrumpForums.com
    Truth forever on the scaffold, Wrong forever on the throne,--
    Yet that scaffold sways the future, and, behind the dim unknown,
    Standeth God within the shadow, keeping watch above his own.
    ‫‬‫‬

  31. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by RealJamesMiller View Post
    No, and he should just retire.

    He decided to let his hatred of Trump cloud his (already poor) judgment and needs to pay the price.
    Yes.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  32. #28
    Justin shot himself in the foot which is sad. It's obvious that he just wanted out and was going to do it in a blaze of glory.
    __________________________________________________ ________________
    "A politician will do almost anything to keep their job, even become a patriot" - Hearst

  33. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by Matt Collins View Post
    Justin shot himself in the foot which is sad. It's obvious that he just wanted out and was going to do it in a blaze of glory.
    He went out covered in something but it wasn't glory.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  34. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    He went out covered in something but it wasn't glory.
    Maybe Amash has been hanging with Judge Swamp.

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