Can Justin Amash Win Reelection As An Independent?

[Warlord]

Analysis here:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...n-independent/

[Swordsmyth]

NO

[Sammy]

I don't think Amash can win.

[EBounding]

The odds are against him, but he can win re-election. I'd say he has a better chance than Rand or Ron's presidential runs, and everyone here supported those. Justin's chances will improve if there's a bloody primary and both sides end up choosing terrible candidates. That is happening so far, at least on the Republican side.

[Krugminator2]

Pure guess but I would say 15% to win. I am not actually sure how he would do it but seems possible. It is such a Republican District and Trump is less popular than usual there. If the Republicans have an unknown candidate and the Dems have a weak candidate then seems like the incumbent Rep could win.

The problem is Amash is always underfunded but this time even less so. He won't have any of the super PACs like Club for Growth dumping money into the race and won't have people like the DeVos's backing him.

A better question is do Dems win a safe Republican district? Also does Amash run on the LP ticket? (I think so.)

[Cleaner44]

I would guess it will be very difficult for him. Getting elected to D.C. outside of the 2 party system is tough.

[Anti Globalist]

Honestly I'm not sure if he can win. Everything thats been going on with him the past couple months has got me perplexed. I can't make heads or tails of it. Calling for Trumps impeachment, believing the Russiagate BS. I can't tell if hes doing it of his own volition or if the Deep State has something on him and and they're using it to effectively kill his political career. That being said, hes got a score of 94% based on the Freedom Index. Whoever replaces him will be a downgrade.

[brushfire]

Nobody thought that a$$hat trump could win, and he did. By gosh, he did.

Personally, I'm rooting for Amash. I see an Amash win as a gateway to other principled statesmen/women who want to break away from being party wh0res. It would also be nice to have another example of "electability" and this whole 2 party paradigm that folks are always pitching. Just think of the doors that could open, and the message an Amash win could send...

[clint4liberty]

No, but it is worth the effort and time. Less the Republican establishment can spend in other liberty primary race campaigns.

[brushfire]

Can we get another crunch on those numbers? What's the latest poll? Is he electable yet?

[EBounding]

Amash's fundraising is not keeping pace with opponents considering he's the incumbent. He also only has $201K on hand. He will need a really bloody Republican primary to have a decent chance.

MI-03 Fundraising Totals:

Justin Amash $293,980

GOP Primary
Peter Meijer $410,149 ($100K self funded)
Rep. James Lower $251,749
Joel Langlois $246,669
Rep. Lynn Aflendoulis $159,371

Dem Primary
Nick Clovin $246,193
Hillary Scholten $233,708


https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/MI/03/2020/

[Superfluous Man]

Amash's fundraising is not keeping pace with opponents considering he's the incumbent. He also only has $201K on hand. He will need a really bloody Republican primary to have a decent chance.

MI-03 Fundraising Totals:

Justin Amash $293,980

GOP Primary
Peter Meijer $410,149 ($100K self funded)
Rep. James Lower $251,749
Joel Langlois $246,669
Rep. Lynn Aflendoulis $159,371

Dem Primary
Nick Clovin $246,193
Hillary Scholten $233,708


https://www.fec.gov/data/elections/house/MI/03/2020/

Honestly, Peter Meijer seemed surprisingly good when I saw things he had said. Has Amash said anything about him?

[angelatc]

The odds are against him, but he can win re-election. I'd say he has a better chance than Rand or Ron's presidential runs, and everyone here supported those. Justin's chances will improve if there's a bloody primary and both sides end up choosing terrible candidates. That is happening so far, at least on the Republican side.

Straight ticket voting will make it practically impossible, I think. The "Party Faithful" are the most likely to turn out in the primary.

[EBounding]

Honestly, Peter Meijer seemed surprisingly good when I saw things he had said. Has Amash said anything about him?

Meijer's rhetoric and philosophy does seem close to Amash's. I know he donated to Amash in the past, but I doubt he'll be as principled if elected.

Straight ticket voting will make it practically impossible, I think. The "Party Faithful" are the most likely to turn out in the primary.

Yeah....I have to agree.

[Swordsmyth]

Meijer's rhetoric and philosophy does seem close to Amash's. I know he donated to Amash in the past, but I doubt he'll be as principled if elected.

That won't be hard, it would be harder for him to avoid being more principled than Amash who just abstained from voting against the resolution to condemn withdrawing troops from Syria.

[tfurrh]

That won't be hard, it would be harder for him to avoid being more principled than Amash who just abstained from voting against the resolution to condemn withdrawing troops from Syria.

ADS?

[Swordsmyth]

ADS?

Amash has TDS and has let it get the better of his principles. (If he ever really had any)

[eleganz]

No why is 538 even wasting their time with this?

Amash, as much as we all love him, put emotion over election. Which is admirable because he is sticking to his beliefs til the end.

But now he is no longer able to push the message, he will probably go back to the private sector poking his head out in libertarian events every so often to rile up the niche base that nobody cares about anyway. Now its just Massie and Rand.

[Matt Collins]

More than likely not.

[Matt Collins]

No why is 538 even wasting their time with this?

Amash, as much as we all love him, put emotion over election. Which is admirable because he is sticking to his beliefs til the end.

Which is absurd because the two are not mutually exclusive.

Look at Thomas... he hasn't sold out at all, still retains his credibility.

[enhanced_deficit]

It's still early. But the way sands are shifting lately, won't be surprised if he won in a landslide.


CBS News poll: Majority of Americans approve of Trump impeachment inquiry

[Swordsmyth]

It's still early. But the way sands are shifting lately, won't be surprised if he won in a landslide.


CBS News poll: Majority of Americans approve of Trump impeachment inquiry

Those polls are just as fake as Amash.

[LibertyEagle]

Amash has TDS and has let it get the better of his principles. (If he ever really had any)

I don't think that is fair. Amash had great principles and a fantastic voting record. Although, I don't really understand what has happened to him lately. I'm pretty disappointed.

[enhanced_deficit]

Those polls are just as fake as Amash.

Polls very well could be fakenews, even if NBC is touting average of 500 polls this time.

Who do you think America-First US public in the end would find more trustworthy, an Israeli military soldier and top US globalist neocon funded former reality star/gambling casino success story turned politician or someone not tainted by foreign-firster lobbies money and track record of principled stands?


View Poll Results:

Poll: How much trust do you put in current President's promises and statements?

Since he frequently contradicts himself his statements can't be trusted at all, you have to watch his actions to even guess about his positions or plans.

[RealJamesMiller]

No, and he should just retire.

He decided to let his hatred of Trump cloud his (already poor) judgment and needs to pay the price.

[axiomata]

No, and he should just retire.

He decided to let his hatred of Trump cloud his (already poor) judgment and needs to pay the price.

You're looking for TrumpForums.com

[Swordsmyth]

No, and he should just retire.

He decided to let his hatred of Trump cloud his (already poor) judgment and needs to pay the price.

Yes.

[Matt Collins]

Justin shot himself in the foot which is sad. It's obvious that he just wanted out and was going to do it in a blaze of glory.

[Swordsmyth]

Justin shot himself in the foot which is sad. It's obvious that he just wanted out and was going to do it in a blaze of glory.

He went out covered in something but it wasn't glory.

[kahless]

He went out covered in something but it wasn't glory.

Maybe Amash has been hanging with Judge Swamp.