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Thread: Oil Plunges As Iran Conflict Cools

  1. #1

    Oil Plunges As Iran Conflict Cools

    Oil prices sank on Tuesday after President Trump and U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo struck a softer tone on Iran. The market acted swiftly, selling off crude oil.
    The comments come a day after Iran’s foreign minister Javad Zarif spoke with NBC News, where he seemed to crack open the door to negotiations of some sort. When asked what it would take to get Iran to the bargaining table, Zarif took issue with the premise of the question. “No, we are at the bargaining table. It is the United States that left the bargaining table,” he said. “And they are always welcome to return.”


    He then framed Iran’s recent moves to withdraw from parts of the 2015 nuclear deal as a response to the U.S. not holding up its end of the deal. The Trump administration unilaterally left the agreement in 2018.
    But again, Zarif seemed to open the door. When NBC News’ Lester Holt asked whether or not Iran’s latest decisions to begin stockpiling low-enriched uranium, among other maneuvers, could be reversed, Zarif was quick to respond. “Of course. It can be reversed within hours.”
    So, that prompted NBC’s Holt to ask if Iran would negotiate if sanctions were lifted. “The United States is addicted, unfortunately, to sanctions,” Zarif said, noting longstanding restrictions placed on Iran. However, he took particular issue with the sanctions that were implemented since last year under the Trump administration. Those are the sticking point. “Once those sanctions are lifted, then room for negotiation is wide open,” Zarif said.
    Perhaps even more notable was how Zarif responded when asked about Iran’s ballistic missile program. The U.S. has issued a series of demands regarding Iranian missiles, an issue that was not part of the 2015 nuclear deal. That seemed to be a non-starter, but Zarif didn’t necessarily dismiss it as out of hand. He said that Iran would be willing to talk about anything after the U.S. recommits the deal they already have, referring to the nuclear agreement. He also said that the U.S. needed to stop sending weapons to Saudi Arabia and the UAE. It all seems highly unlikely, but the tone was more open than it had been in the past.

    Zarif even mentioned job creation in the U.S. that would have come from expanded trade between the two countries (Iran was in the midst of planning major airplane purchases from Boeing before the Trump administration scrapped the deal), and said that Tehran would welcome American businesses back to Iran if their issues could be resolved. Perhaps Zarif was hoping to appeal to President Trump’s desire to strike deals.
    The lengthy interview and rather accommodating tone from Zarif appeared to succeed in softening up the Trump administration. President Trump said at a cabinet meeting on Tuesday that the U.S. was “not looking for regime change,” although he added that he did “want them out of Yemen.”
    “They’d like to talk, and we’ll see what happens,” Trump said.
    Following those comments, Sec. Pompeo said that “for the first time” Iran was “ready to negotiate on their missile program.”
    Oil prices plunged by 4 percent on Tuesday after Trump and Pompeo seemed to lay the groundwork for de-escalation. There are no formal next steps that the two countries might take, but the positive back-and-forth is long way from where they were a few weeks ago, on the eve of a U.S. military strike.

    More at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-G...ict-Cools.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment



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  3. #2
    Wholesale gasoline closed at 1.89 , West Texas Light Sweet Crude 57.62 , Brent Crude 64.35 with the one year forecast at 66.00 . Copper about 2.70 .
    Do something Danke

  4. #3
    Earlier in the day President Trump reiterated during a Cabinet meeting, "We're not looking for regime change," adding "We want them out of Yemen."
    Pompeo, seated next to Trump, said that Tehran is ready to negotiate over its missile program for the first time.
    "For the first time … the Iranians said they are ready to negotiate on their missile program," said Pompeo.
    Trump added "They’d like to talk, and we’ll see what happens," adding that Iran "can't have a nuclear weapon."

    More at: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...issile-program
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  5. #4
    Trump quits an agreement with Iran and then gets mad when Iran says they may quit the same agreement.

  6. #5
    We're payin 1.50* at the pump for unleaded, no complaints here.........

    *Correction, we're paying 2.50 not 1.50.
    Last edited by Stratovarious; 07-22-2019 at 06:37 PM.

  7. #6
    This thread is much more about politics than it is about economics but I guess somebody wanted to hide it.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  8. #7
    Others offer a different reason for oil prices falling. Almost all of the US production in the Gulf of Mexico was shut down due to the tropical storm/ hurricane which passed through last week. Prices soared then and are starting to come back down. The facilities are coming back online again. China demand also declined.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oi...ort-2019-07-15

    Oil prices end lower after last week’s gains as Gulf storm threat passes

    Oil futures settled lower Monday, giving back a portion of last week’s sizable gains, as production in the Gulf of Mexico began a post-storm recovery.

    “Near-term, the trend is still higher, but the combination of formidable technical resistance in the mid $60s [for WTI] and persistent demand concerns due to the trade war will likely prevent prices from making new highs for the year,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.

    “That could change if the pace of [U.S.] stockpile draws, which have averaged 6.6 [million barrels] per week over the last month, holds near current levels,” he said in daily report.

    August West Texas Intermediate crude CLQ19, -1.21% fell by 63 cents, or 1.1%, to settle $59.58 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, pulling back after finishing last week with a 4.7% gain.
    Gulf of Mexico oil production had taken a “temporary plunge due to Hurricane Barry,” said Robbie Fraser, senior commodity analyst at Schneider Electric. Barry, however, was downgraded to a tropical depression by Monday.

    Oil and natural-gas output in the Gulf was picking up, with about 69% of Gulf oil production and nearly 61% of natural-gas production shut in, according to the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement Monday. That marked an improvement from Sunday, when almost 73% of oil and 62% of natural-gas output was down.

    “The storm will likely skew [Energy Information Administration’s] storage numbers for the next couple reports, as demand, supply, imports, exports, and domestic production will all be [affected] by the slowdown in The Gulf,” wrote Robert Yawger, director of energy at Mizuho USA, in a Monday research note.

  9. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Stratovarious View Post
    We're payin 1.50 at the pump for unleaded, no complaints here.........
    Where do you live that has unleaded at $1.50 per gallon?
    "Self conquest is the greatest of all victories." - Plato



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  11. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Intoxiklown View Post
    Where do you live that has unleaded at $1.50 per gallon?
    Arizona / West

    I don't know what it is today, probably still close to that.

  12. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by Stratovarious View Post
    Arizona / West

    I don't know what it is today, probably still close to that.

    LOL....lucky fkr

    Where we live in Alabama (about 80 miles north of Panama City, FL) I think it's $2.30 for gas, and $2.50 for diesel
    "Self conquest is the greatest of all victories." - Plato

  13. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by Intoxiklown View Post
    LOL....lucky fkr

    Where we live in Alabama (about 80 miles north of Panama City, FL) I think it's $2.30 for gas, and $2.50 for diesel
    OOPS , MANY apologies, I just did some checking , 2.49 is the lowest I see around here , I fucched up 'big league' .

    I'm going to go back and edit that post , that's just fkd up.. : )

  14. #12
    Duplicate / Delete

  15. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    This thread is much more about politics than it is about economics but I guess somebody wanted to hide it.

    I agree, we have way to many little cubby holes here, or maybe rugs, we should have three categories , perhaps;

    Site Suggestions
    Off Top
    Everything Else


    I only go through 'current posts' at any rate, I never shop the categories.

  16. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by Stratovarious View Post
    OOPS , MANY apologies, I just did some checking , 2.49 is the lowest I see around here , I fucched up 'big league' .

    I'm going to go back and edit that post , that's just fkd up.. : )
    lol......man, I was already looking into how many pounds max Fed Ex and UPS would ship per package (even thinking about straight up trucking costs for a trailer), and how much I'd have to spend to wind up coming out on top in a way to justify costs

    We was about to find us a way to start a gasoline delivery service
    "Self conquest is the greatest of all victories." - Plato

  17. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Intoxiklown View Post
    lol......man, I was already looking into how many pounds max Fed Ex and UPS would ship per package (even thinking about straight up trucking costs for a trailer), and how much I'd have to spend to wind up coming out on top in a way to justify costs

    We was about to find us a way to start a gasoline delivery service
    I think water is about 8lbs per gallon, fuel is pretty close to that, Fed ex would probably
    charge way too much, even if I had been right about the 1.50per gal .


    I'm going to guess, again if I was right about the 1.50, it would be hundreds of tankers before
    getting to a reasonable profit.



  18. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by Stratovarious View Post
    I think water is about 8lbs per gallon, fuel is pretty close to that, Fed ex would probably
    charge way too much, even if I had been right about the 1.50per gal .


    I'm going to guess, again if I was right about the 1.50, it would be hundreds of tankers before
    getting to a reasonable profit.



    Well.....

    At those prices, and reselling at like $2 per gallon to every gas station I could find to work in the dark with me (or some entity with massive vehicle groups), we could squeeze out close to $1500 net after freight (using a base 64 drum load on a 40 ft trailer). Figure 6 or 7 trailers before it was in the black and self sustaining....

    It'd definitely be a volume run. Course....any real money in sales is made that way, speaking to volume sales. Too many people want to pay off their Ferrari on one sale. Course....we'd be done as soon as that source price came up, so no reliable supplier....lol
    "Self conquest is the greatest of all victories." - Plato



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  20. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by Intoxiklown View Post
    Well.....

    At those prices, and reselling at like $2 per gallon to every gas station I could find to work in the dark with me (or some entity with massive vehicle groups), we could squeeze out close to $1500 net after freight (using a base 64 drum load on a 40 ft trailer). Figure 6 or 7 trailers before it was in the black and self sustaining....

    It'd definitely be a volume run. Course....any real money in sales is made that way, speaking to volume sales. Too many people want to pay off their Ferrari on one sale. Course....we'd be done as soon as that source price came up, so no reliable supplier....lol
    Sounds like it would be worthwhile , shame my figure was wrong.


    Speaking of arbitrage (a term often used in financial markets), I know of tons of people that shop
    certain venues , then sell on Amazon ebay etc, I think that gets pretty tedious, but they
    do it , some claim to do well .

    My dream for a long time had been find a manufacturer that doesn't sell on those platforms and
    buy wholesale from them direct shipped to fulfill by Amazon .

    I realize that you probably aren't interested in this kind of business, I'm just throwing this out ,
    because Amazon is a deal breaker, they are taking over the world so to speak with incredible
    innovation in logistics, and convenience, its completely mind boggling.
    They take care of EVERYTHING for the seller and get products delivered as early as next day
    and in some cases same day. Seller needs to touch nothing. They partner with UPS, USPS etc
    an idea that has never been implemented on a substantial scale, with hubs and merchandise
    in strategic locations.
    Ok , I'm done : ) , Amazon is Evil in some areas, but they are pretty amazing
    in others.

  21. #18
    Middle man wholesale drop shipping. My first business was similar but I did have a delivery point from the jobber and I personally delivered wholesale to my retail customers. I had to handle the product because I could not let my jobber supplier meet my retail customer or they would just bypass me.
    “The ultimate test of a moral society is the kind of world it leaves to its children.” ~ Dietrich Bonhoeffer

  22. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by Stratovarious View Post
    Sounds like it would be worthwhile , shame my figure was wrong.


    Speaking of arbitrage (a term often used in financial markets), I know of tons of people that shop
    certain venues , then sell on Amazon ebay etc, I think that gets pretty tedious, but they
    do it , some claim to do well .

    My dream for a long time had been find a manufacturer that doesn't sell on those platforms and
    buy wholesale from them direct shipped to fulfill by Amazon .

    I realize that you probably aren't interested in this kind of business, I'm just throwing this out ,
    because Amazon is a deal breaker, they are taking over the world so to speak with incredible
    innovation in logistics, and convenience, its completely mind boggling.
    They take care of EVERYTHING for the seller and get products delivered as early as next day
    and in some cases same day. Seller needs to touch nothing. They partner with UPS, USPS etc
    an idea that has never been implemented on a substantial scale, with hubs and merchandise
    in strategic locations.
    Ok , I'm done : ) , Amazon is Evil in some areas, but they are pretty amazing
    in others.
    Amazon is selling routes, FYI. Rather, territories to handle deliveries (they're trying to put together a private entity for moving product that has Amazon at it's center). It wasn't much to buy one....I think a truck and $30k liquid assets, as well as being flown to their Corp HQ (think it was Seattle?) for something of an "interview" before full steam ahead.

    Honestly, what you're talking is relatively easy to get off the ground. The cheapest being find some Chinese products to import, insure there is enough process involved to claim made in the USA, and sell them online through a shell LLC. That does require handling some storage and shipping on this end, but that also allows you to insure all packaging and markings are yours'. But, you could use the container as your warehouse until it was empty and then return. I used to sell massage chairs like that (I was selling exact copies of $4k chairs here for $400) and a 20ft container and BNSF rail to Memphis was just a few grand. Sure people could get your product from a China dealer via Amazon for a bit cheaper, but as long as the markup was modest and not crazy....people would pay it partly for the Made in USA claim, but more so for expediency since instead of 30 to 40 days delivery your product was 2 to 5.

    Another way is something I'm actually going to look into, as I have several strong contacts in the manufacturing world, but never thought about it until your post. But the main one I'm going to look into is medical equipment, as my uncle runs my dad's old lift chair manufacturing facility in MS (Med-Lift) because I know the productions costs and what I can get certain things built for.
    "Self conquest is the greatest of all victories." - Plato

  23. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by Intoxiklown View Post
    Amazon is selling routes, FYI. Rather, territories to handle deliveries (they're trying to put together a private entity for moving product that has Amazon at it's center). It wasn't much to buy one....I think a truck and $30k liquid assets, as well as being flown to their Corp HQ (think it was Seattle?) for something of an "interview" before full steam ahead.

    Honestly, what you're talking is relatively easy to get off the ground. The cheapest being find some Chinese products to import, insure there is enough process involved to claim made in the USA, and sell them online through a shell LLC. That does require handling some storage and shipping on this end, but that also allows you to insure all packaging and markings are yours'. But, you could use the container as your warehouse until it was empty and then return. I used to sell massage chairs like that (I was selling exact copies of $4k chairs here for $400) and a 20ft container and BNSF rail to Memphis was just a few grand. Sure people could get your product from a China dealer via Amazon for a bit cheaper, but as long as the markup was modest and not crazy....people would pay it partly for the Made in USA claim, but more so for expediency since instead of 30 to 40 days delivery your product was 2 to 5.

    Another way is something I'm actually going to look into, as I have several strong contacts in the manufacturing world, but never thought about it until your post. But the main one I'm going to look into is medical equipment, as my uncle runs my dad's old lift chair manufacturing facility in MS (Med-Lift) because I know the productions costs and what I can get certain things built for.
    Sounds like a good plan, the med lift product.
    I agree with the expediency aspect, that's partly what makes Amazon so incredible, they FBA products (Prime) , so they have
    control over the delivery process, they can accurately (for the most part) stand by a 2 day promise, they know where
    everything is; product , customer, as well as the unprecedented partnerships with shippers, something the world
    has never seen.
    Also , returns are a no headaches process, they even send ups / next day to pick up for you, it might cost
    a little but worth it considering the gas you'd burn and time wasted on a trip to a Shpg point.
    I can't say enough about amzn's product business model , other than I don't think Amzn actually makes a profit
    yet, if they ever cross that hurdle it there will be nothing but upside.



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