Perhaps aggregate birth rates are down due to increased rates of abortion. However, Jatlaoui et al. (2017) reported that for females aged 15–44, the absolute number of abortions, number of abortions per 1,000, and number of abortions per 1,000 live births all steadily declined between 2006 and 2014.
Perhaps enhanced use of contraception contributed to the falling US birth rates. However, Kavanaugh and Jerman (2018) found that the overall utilization of contraception by females aged 15–44 remained at approximately 60% between 2008 and 2014.
Although contraception rates have remained constant, perhaps birth rates were decreased, because birth control improved. Sundaram et al. (2017) confirm that overall contraceptive failure rates (CFR) declined between surveys taken in 2002 and 2006–2010 from 12% to 10%. This decline is particularly interesting, because CFR of most birth control methods were essentially unchanged between 1995 and 2002.
Although overall failure rates fell from 14.9% in 1995 to 12.4% in 2002, that reduction was solely the result of the decline in failure rate of one birth control method, namely withdrawal, from 28% to 18%. The failure rates of all other methods remained
steady during that time period.
Perhaps the recession that began in 2008 affected fertility negatively. Using data through 2012, Schneider (2015) noted that fertility fell during the Great Recession that (according to the National Bureau of Economic Research) lasted from 2008 to 2010.
Schneider (2015) demonstrated the effect to be least among older women (aged 35–44) and concluded that the influence of recession on fertility was temporary. If the effect was temporary, the birth rate should climb substantially after the recession as the couples who postponed having children joined the younger couples who wanted to start families.
Figure 2 illustrates that the US employment rates and birth rates tended to move together from 1995 to 2009. However, as employment rates recovered starting in 2010, birth rates continued a slow decline. The Pearson statistic, which measures correlation, was not significant from 1995 to 2015, indicating a lack of relationship between employment and birth rates.
Data suggest that at least part of the reason for the recent decline in US birth rates amongst females aged 25–29 may be associated with increasing injection of the HPV vaccine.
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