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Thread: Why undocumented immigration from Latin America to the US will slow to a crawl—even without a

  1. #1

    Why undocumented immigration from Latin America to the US will slow to a crawl—even without a

    It is basically demographics. Slowing population growth globally. Wages are also getting closer- less financial incentive to move to the US.

    https://www.brookings.edu/blog/brook...a-border-wall/

    Why undocumented immigration from Latin America to the US will slow to a crawl—even without a border wall

    The U.S. Department of Homeland Security recently estimated that President Trump’s much-discussed border wall between the U.S. and Mexico could cost as much as $21.6 billion.

    As the federal government issues requests for proposals to build the wall, several economists from the University of California San Diego are publishing important findings on what’s really happening with immigration across the U.S.-Mexico border, and asking whether spending on a wall is the best way to solve any existing immigration crisis.

    Their paper, published recently in the Spring 2017 edition of the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, finds that weak labor-supply growth in Mexico and other Latin American countries means immigration to the U.S. of young, low-skilled workers will continue to slow until it reaches zero in 2050—even without the implementation of Trump’s border policies.

    A more pressing issue for U.S. policymakers, they argue, is how to address an aging population of long-term, undocumented residents already in the U.S., many of whom will lack health insurance and, as non-citizens, could end up in emergency rooms without Medicare or Medicaid.

    From the early 1980s to the mid-2000s, the U.S. experienced a huge wave of low-skilled immigration from Latin America.
    Between 1970 and 1990, the fraction of young (age 18-33), foreign-born persons from Mexico in the U.S. with a high school degree or less rose from 11.6 percent to 34.0 percent. The fraction from elsewhere in Latin America and the Caribbean rose from 13.2 percent to 23.7 percent.

    Since the Great Recession, however, overall low-skilled immigration to the U.S. has slowed drastically…

    The total undocumented population declined by an annual average of 160,000 individuals between 2007 and 2014. By 2015, the share of foreign-born, low-skilled workers ages 18 to 33 in the U.S. had dropped to 27.2 percent, and 75 percent of low-skilled immigrants had resided in the U.S. for 11 years or more.

    Mexico is by far the largest source country for U.S. labor inflows, accounting for nearly half of all U.S. low-skilled immigrants and nearly two thirds of those with less than 12 years of schooling.

    The authors note that some of the slowdown can be attributed to the collapse in the U.S. housing market, as construction is the second largest sector of employment for undocumented labor and the third largest sector when considering employment among all low-skilled immigrants.

    and immigration of young Mexican workers to the U.S. will be practically zero by 2050, even without new policies to deter immigration.
    This chart pretty much says it all:

    Predicted migration rates from Mexico and Latin America through 2050
    Foreign born population aged 15-40



    Hours worked by immigrants in U.S. border states are also on the decline.
    In U.S. border states, the share of total hours worked by immigrants with 12 or fewer years of schooling rose from 11.9 percent in 1994 to 16.2 percent in 2005, but dropped to 14.1 percent by 2015.

    Those who are migrating from Mexico aren’t necessarily coming because they can make more money for their skills.

    By comparing the actual distribution of wages in Mexico for Mexican residents to a counterfactual wage distribution for Mexican immigrants to the U.S., the authors find that in 1990, Mexican immigrants saw higher returns for their skills in the U.S. than they did in Mexico.
    By 2010, however, working-age Mexican immigrants who reside in the U.S. weren’t overwhelming low-income workers seeking higher wages. Rather, they were almost a random sampling of working-age Mexicans, and were largely individuals who would be middle-income earners in their birth country.

    “There are good reasons to believe,” the authors write, “that the Great Recession may have merely advanced forward in time an inevitable reduction in low-skilled immigration.”

    An improving Mexican economy means Mexican workers have a smaller incentive to migrate to the U.S.
    In Mexico and elsewhere in Latin America, the 1980s and early 1990s were periods of high economic volatility. During this time, the U.S. saw a surge of low-skilled immigration.

    The 2000s, however, were a period of steady if not spectacular economic growth in the region, where shrinking gaps in income between the U.S. and Latin America slowed migration.

    During the 1990s and early 2000s, the gap between the 25th percentile of the income distribution in the U.S. and the 50th percentile of the income distribution in Mexico—which roughly matches expected gains in earnings for the typical Mexican migrant—was stable.

    But it shrunk noticeably after 2007. In the 1990s and early 2000s, a middle-income earner in Mexico who chose to become a low-income earner in the U.S. would see her earnings increase by a factor of 2.3. Post-2007, that value has fallen to 1.75, suggesting reduced wage-driven pressure to migrate.

    Increased border security and immigration enforcement efforts are responsible for some of the slowdown.

    Between 2000 and 2010, the number of U.S. Border Patrol agents policing the U.S.-Mexico border doubled, from 8,600 officers to 17,500 officers, and has since remained at historically high levels.

    The U.S. government has also intensified immigration enforcement in the interior of the country, which has led to an increase in deportations of non-criminal undocumented immigrants from 116,000 individuals in 2001 to an average of 226,000 individuals per year over 2007 to 2015.

    But new research suggests demographic changes in Mexico and elsewhere in Latin America play an outsize role—and explain why immigration rates aren’t likely to pick back up.

    Whereas the U.S. baby boom came to a halt in the early 1960s, Latin America’s baby boom didn’t abate until two decades later, in the late 1970s. This means there were more workers coming into working age in Latin America than there were in the U.S.

    These demographic changes mean the labor market supply of workers in Latin American is shrinking, and we can expect to see far fewer young people immigrating to the U.S.

    The undocumented workers that are in the US are getting older.

    In 1980, Mexican-born individuals in the U.S. were most likely about 22. Today, that number is 40—and will be almost 70 by 2040. Looking ahead, the Latin American-born population over 40 will grow by 82 percent in the next 15 years, while the under 40 population is projected to shrink by 6 percent.

    The authors write:

    “Given our estimates of an increase of 8.5 million (81 percent) in the population of over-40 foreign-born immigrants by 2030, we should expect sizeable growth in the number and fraction of individuals relying on public safety-net programs as a result of past and future immigration. Under existing financing rules, U.S. states and localities would be the entities primarily responsible for shouldering these costs.

    In light of the changing demographics of migrant-sending nations, the current emphasis of the U.S. government on further intensifying immigration enforcement is puzzling. Why build a wall to stop an immigration surge that has largely already occurred?”
    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 02-11-2019 at 07:06 PM.


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  3. #2
    From the article:
    "This chart pretty much says it all":
    How does the chart pretty much say it all when there are only four countries shown? Doesn't immigration usually shift from one region to another?

    I don't even much focus on this issue at all and often don't even care, but did they research other countries from Tacoville?




    Quote Originally Posted by TheCount View Post
    ...I believe that when the government is capable of doing a thing, it will.
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    which one of yall fuckers wrote the "ron paul" racist news letters
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  4. #3
    Too little too late even if it is true, we must secure the border and evict the invaders that are already here.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

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  5. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Too little too late even if it is true, we must secure the border and evict the invaders that are already here.
    Ah- the cliche response with the important key words worked in. Well done!

    evict the invaders that are already here.
    Papers please! We need to see if you are "one of them".
    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 02-11-2019 at 07:32 PM.


    Donald Trump: 'What you're seeing and what you're reading is not what's happening'

    "Truth isn't truth"- Rudy Giuliani

    "China has total respect for Donald Trump and for Donald Trump's very, very large brain," - Donald Trump.

    "Yeah, I have to say these guys(trolls) are pretty sharp. Sort of good to get a challenge and sharpen your thoughts." NorthCarolinaLiberty

    I am Zippy and I approve of this post. But you don't have to.

  6. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Ah- the cliche response with the important key words worked in. Well done!
    LOL

    You don't have an argument.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  7. #6
    So I don't really get it. The author seems to say don't worry about it, but then says this:


    “Given our estimates of an increase of 8.5 million (81 percent) in the population of over-40 foreign-born immigrants by 2030, we should expect sizeable growth in the number and fraction of individuals relying on public safety-net programs as a result of past and future immigration.


    So I petitioned my wife from another country. We did all our own legal work. No attorney. Paid a crapload of money in State Dept fees. My wife then petitioned my mother-in-law. Same deal with the legal work and all the fees.

    But now, I'm supposed to shell out money for some of these $#@!s (and their adherents) who act like their entitled? I don't care where you're from. Knocking on my door with your hand out in an entitlement stance is baloney.

    If these phony progressives are so interested in helping the foreigner, then you personally pay for it. I suggest you dig your pocket and reimburse me for my legal fees and all the time I put in to honestly admit two people.
    Quote Originally Posted by TheCount View Post
    ...I believe that when the government is capable of doing a thing, it will.
    Quote Originally Posted by Influenza View Post
    which one of yall fuckers wrote the "ron paul" racist news letters
    Quote Originally Posted by Dforkus View Post
    Zippy's posts are a great contribution.




    Disrupt, Deny, Deflate. Read the RPF trolls' playbook here (post #3): http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...eptive-members

  8. #7
    Uninsured people (regardless of immigration status) will definitely be a problem as people get older. Those here illegally are not eligible for any federal benefits (which is why the article indicates that burden will mostly fall on state and local governments).


    Donald Trump: 'What you're seeing and what you're reading is not what's happening'

    "Truth isn't truth"- Rudy Giuliani

    "China has total respect for Donald Trump and for Donald Trump's very, very large brain," - Donald Trump.

    "Yeah, I have to say these guys(trolls) are pretty sharp. Sort of good to get a challenge and sharpen your thoughts." NorthCarolinaLiberty

    I am Zippy and I approve of this post. But you don't have to.

  9. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Those here illegally are not eligible for any federal benefits
    And yet they get them anyway
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment



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  11. #9
    Because they are already here?
    "There are two freedoms - the false, where a man is free to do what he likes; the true, where he is free to do what he ought."~~Charles Kingsley

  12. #10
    I thought I heard the last of the ignorant New York City accent when I moved out of that sewer city. Now, those carpetbaggers come down here with their know-it-all attitude. The worst is the Massachusetts tards with their really thick accents.







    Quote Originally Posted by TheCount View Post
    ...I believe that when the government is capable of doing a thing, it will.
    Quote Originally Posted by Influenza View Post
    which one of yall fuckers wrote the "ron paul" racist news letters
    Quote Originally Posted by Dforkus View Post
    Zippy's posts are a great contribution.




    Disrupt, Deny, Deflate. Read the RPF trolls' playbook here (post #3): http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...eptive-members

  13. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    And yet they get them anyway
    Another inaccurate cliche.


    Donald Trump: 'What you're seeing and what you're reading is not what's happening'

    "Truth isn't truth"- Rudy Giuliani

    "China has total respect for Donald Trump and for Donald Trump's very, very large brain," - Donald Trump.

    "Yeah, I have to say these guys(trolls) are pretty sharp. Sort of good to get a challenge and sharpen your thoughts." NorthCarolinaLiberty

    I am Zippy and I approve of this post. But you don't have to.

  14. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Another inaccurate cliche.
    No it isn't.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  15. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Uninsured people (regardless of immigration status) will definitely be a problem as people get older. Those here illegally are not eligible for any federal benefits (which is why the article indicates that burden will mostly fall on state and local governments).

    Well, isn't that a problem then?

    I see this as macro example of a family member who always "borrows" money because he acts entitled.

    How 'bout some of these $#@!s get a job? Didn't immigrants used to come here and build roads and $#@! like that? Sure, some of that is probably mythical and nostalgic; however, there was no welfare back in the 1800s like we have today.

    Seriously--some slob sticks his hand out and acts entitled. He uses the heavy hand of government to reach in my pocket. What if I did that? What if I acted like Hot Sauce is supposed to pay me money? I'm just some guy here, so why shouldn't I do that?
    Quote Originally Posted by TheCount View Post
    ...I believe that when the government is capable of doing a thing, it will.
    Quote Originally Posted by Influenza View Post
    which one of yall fuckers wrote the "ron paul" racist news letters
    Quote Originally Posted by Dforkus View Post
    Zippy's posts are a great contribution.




    Disrupt, Deny, Deflate. Read the RPF trolls' playbook here (post #3): http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthr...eptive-members

  16. #14
    Asia is now the #1 source for immigration. We need a China Wall and more soldiers along their border!

    https://www.nationalgeographic.com/c...es-study-news/

    Asian-Americans Make Up Most of the New U.S. Immigrant Population

    THE NUMBER OF foreign-born residents in the United States is now the highest it has been since 1910, according to recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Compared to past decades, the country’s newest immigrants are most likely to come from Asia.

    William H. Frey from the Brookings Institute analyzed the census data, which covers 2010-2017, and found that 41 percent of immigrants during those years arrived from Asia, while 39 percent came from Latin America, reports the New York Times. Though foreign-born U.S. residents as a whole are primarily Latin American—50 percent of the population, as opposed to the 31 percent who are Asian—recent data may suggest tides are shifting.

    A demographer and professor at the University of Michigan’s Population Studies Center, Frey explains the growing demographics of Asian-American communities in the U.S. in his recently published book Diversity Explosion: How New Racial Demographics Are Remaking America. According to 2010 data, Chinese and Indian residents make up the largest and second-largest portions of America’s Asian population, with the greatest numbers of both groups residing in New York City. Los Angeles is home to the country’s largest Filipino, Vietnamese, and Korean communities, who make up the next biggest Asian populations in the nation. With the rise in Asian-Americans across the country, however, Asian-American communities are now flourishing in Atlanta, Austin, and Raleigh.

    This expanding Asian immigration also coincides with an increase in highly educated immigrants. Frey found that 45 percent of immigrants who entered the country after 2010 had college degrees, compared to 30 percent of those who arrived between 2000 and 2009.
    More at link.

    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 02-11-2019 at 08:21 PM.


    Donald Trump: 'What you're seeing and what you're reading is not what's happening'

    "Truth isn't truth"- Rudy Giuliani

    "China has total respect for Donald Trump and for Donald Trump's very, very large brain," - Donald Trump.

    "Yeah, I have to say these guys(trolls) are pretty sharp. Sort of good to get a challenge and sharpen your thoughts." NorthCarolinaLiberty

    I am Zippy and I approve of this post. But you don't have to.

  17. #15
    China has its own wall.
    "There are two freedoms - the false, where a man is free to do what he likes; the true, where he is free to do what he ought."~~Charles Kingsley



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