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Thread: RPF Investing Game

  1. #1

    RPF Investing Game

    Let's each pretend that we have $100,000 to play with.

    Trades have to be announced in this thread.

    Prices for those trades will be fixed at the moment that a player posts in this thread.

    Whoever gets the highest real (CPI adjusted) return for calendar year 2019 wins (bragging rights, glory, etc).
    "Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard."

    -H. L. Mencken



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  3. #2
    I'll start:

    According to Yahoo Finance, the ask on January 2020 SLV calls @28 is $0.12.

    I buy 100 contracts for $1,200.

    I keep the remaining $98,800 in cash for the moment (actually in a high yield savings account but that's too complicated for this game).
    "Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard."

    -H. L. Mencken

  4. #3
    I see stocks as a long- term investment. More shorter term, the concern for them is uncertainty. Stocks hate uncertainty.

    First there is the tariff war. Tariffs already imposed are only starting to show up a little bit in companies bottom lines. Proposed tariffs are making them less willing to invest in expansion because they are less certain about costs of supplies and of their customers (especially for those who rely on imports and exports). If more tariffs are imposed (as threatened) it will have a bigger effect.

    Domestically, any stimulus from the tax cuts has worn off and won't be much of a factor going forwards. That could mean weaker domestic demand.

    Another factor is the current shut-down. I don't expect it to last very long but it will be a drag on the economy as people not getting paid cut their spending and the places they were buying see lower sales. I think this effect will be limited but should not be ignored. It effects the psychology of other consumers by making them consider what they would do if their job was taken away even for a short time- that could mean spending a little less and saving a bit more- slowing the economy.

    GDP growth has been slowing and so has job creation. I don't see either of those going higher for a while. Note declining peaks in these charts:



    New jobs:



    So I will be going defensive for a while. Not selling stocks but looking more for safety and returns. I will be adding to my dividend paying utility stock- SRE. Sempra Energy. With interest rates rising, bond prices will be falling so I will stay away from them (fair notice- I don't own any anyways). Dividend stocks get you a steady return like a bond can but you can also benefit if the price of the stock goes up too. Current dividend yield on the stock is 3.5%. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/sre/

    I don't think we will necessarily hit a recession soon but the economy is slowing and Trump confusion is adding to it.
    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 01-01-2019 at 09:41 PM.


    Donald Trump: 'What you're seeing and what you're reading is not what's happening'

    "Truth isn't truth"- Rudy Giuliani

    "China has total respect for Donald Trump and for Donald Trump's very, very large brain," - Donald Trump.

    "Yeah, I have to say these guys(trolls) are pretty sharp. Sort of good to get a challenge and sharpen your thoughts." NorthCarolinaLiberty

    I am Zippy and I approve of this post. But you don't have to.

  5. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Stocks hate uncertainty
    They also hate being massively overvalued at the end of a business cycle with interest rates rising...

    In any event, place your wagers Zipster.

    ...or not, one can join in the game up to the last day of 2019 (and with $100k, as if you held cash all year).

    P.S. That said, if anyone actually wants to join in this, I think we ought to agree on a rate of interest for holding cash (say 2%?). I don't think we need do that realistically based on market rates since they constantly change and that becomes unnecessarily complicated. For the same reason, we should agree on a rate for margin (or disallow it) and shorting (or disallow it).
    Last edited by r3volution 3.0; 01-01-2019 at 09:51 PM.
    "Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard."

    -H. L. Mencken

  6. #5
    On second thought, it occurs to me that no one is going to want to do this consistently (if at all), and I don't want to have to keep checking it...

    So nevermind, I disqualify myself from the contest; I'm not going to be posting my hypothetical transactions going forward.
    "Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard."

    -H. L. Mencken

  7. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by r3volution 3.0 View Post
    On second thought, it occurs to me that no one is going to want to do this consistently (if at all), and I don't want to have to keep checking it...

    So nevermind, I disqualify myself from the contest; I'm not going to be posting my hypothetical transactions going forward.
    We could start one of the various virtual stock games. I haven't tried any however something like https://www.marketwatch.com/game looks like we coudl create a public or private game and go from there
    “…let us teach them that all who draw breath are of equal worth, and that those who seek to press heel upon the throat of liberty, will fall to the cry of FREEDOM!!!” – Spartacus, War of the Damned

    BTC: 1AFbCLYU3G1dkbsSJnk3spWeEwpqYVC2Pq

  8. #7
    I purchase 29,325 shares SWN at $3.41.

  9. #8
    Well if I thought the economy was really going to boom , real growth I would go with Crude oil & copper , but I do not think it is .
    Do something Danke



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  11. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Schifference View Post
    I purchase 29,325 shares SWN at $3.41.
    $3.90 today. Up $14,329. I expect this stock to be over $10 in the next couple of years. Great company.

  12. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by Schifference View Post
    $3.90 today. Up $14,329. I expect this stock to be over $10 in the next couple of years. Great company.
    Just did a quick price check on them. Price was almost $50 a share five years ago (April 2014) and is $3.90 today. That is a pretty big drop during a bull market.

    Natural Gas exploration outfit it seems?


    Donald Trump: 'What you're seeing and what you're reading is not what's happening'

    "Truth isn't truth"- Rudy Giuliani

    "China has total respect for Donald Trump and for Donald Trump's very, very large brain," - Donald Trump.

    "Yeah, I have to say these guys(trolls) are pretty sharp. Sort of good to get a challenge and sharpen your thoughts." NorthCarolinaLiberty

    I am Zippy and I approve of this post. But you don't have to.

  13. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Just did a quick price check on them. Price was almost $50 a share five years ago (April 2014) and is $3.90 today. That is a pretty big drop during a bull market.

    Natural Gas exploration outfit it seems?

    There are a ton of stocks like that in that sector. There has been a lot of buying by insiders during the last down move in oil and the wild moves in natural gas.

    Look at CHK. Was 30 in 2014. Now 2.25. Insiders just bought a few million shares the last few weeks https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=chk

    Others that are beaten down with insider buying.

    PTEN, TTI, AXAS, NBR

  14. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by Krugminator2 View Post
    There are a ton of stocks like that in that sector. There has been a lot of buying by insiders during the last down move in oil and the wild moves in natural gas.

    Look at CHK. Was 30 in 2014. Now 2.25. Insiders just bought a few million shares the last few weeks https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=chk

    Others that are beaten down with insider buying.

    PTEN, TTI, AXAS, NBR
    The good thing about SWN is they continue to be profitable in the down market.

  15. #13
    I'll play. The big money is gonna be made in crypto-currencies moving forward, and specifically in utility token companies w/ blockchain financial tech that will upend current financial markets. Populous (PPT) will change the invoicing market for SMEs from banking financing to peer-peer. Veritaseum (VERI) will enable software fueled P2P capital markets w/o brokerages or banks. I'll split the 100k evenly between them. VERI: 3205 tokens at $15.60. PPT: 34k tokens at $1.47. Many other good currencies/tokens out there: BTC, LTC, TRON, BCH, NEO, OMG DGB, Waves among others.

  16. #14
    Market Summary > Southwestern Energy Company
    NYSE: SWN
    4.07 USD +0.17 (4.36%)
    Jan 7, 11:36 AM EST · Disclaimer
    4.10 USD ‎10:30 AM
    Open 3.95
    High 4.13
    Low 3.87
    Mkt cap 2.37B
    P/E ratio 2.50

  17. #15
    Ill spend all of my money buying British currency. 100,000 = 78368.00 GBP at current conversion rates according to Google.

  18. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by bv3 View Post
    Ill spend all of my money buying British currency. 100,000 = 78368.00 GBP at current conversion rates according to Google.
    That is interesting .
    Do something Danke



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  20. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by oyarde View Post
    That is interesting .
    I believe necessity will now compel the British to become rich (again). Unless in a strange act of group masochism they choose to destroy themselves.

    Its a bogus bet on my part, not exactly in-line with the more nuanced spirit of this thread. I fully understand that.
    Last edited by bv3; 01-07-2019 at 11:37 AM.

  21. #18
    We should do an investing league. Like fantasy football leagues & baseball leagues do. I simply googled "free investing games" and found this.

    https://www.wallstreetsurvivor.com/

    https://www.marketwatch.com/game

    https://www.howthemarketworks.com/

    Great idea, let's play.
    - SUPPORT FREE TRADE, SMUGGLE -

    2 + 2 = 5.

  22. #19
    I could sell now and be up 21.4% but think SWN is worth way more than $4.14

  23. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by FSP-Rebel View Post
    I'll play. The big money is gonna be made in crypto-currencies...
    But it’s an investment game, not a speculation game, Rebel!

    I have been advising for years:

    25% Gold
    25% US Treasury Bills
    25% 25% Total Stock Market ETF or mutual fund
    25% 30-year US Treasury Bonds

    That will be my allotment for the game. It will not do anything too thrillingly wonderful, as crypto currencies may do, but neither will it thrillingly crash, as crypto currencies may.

  24. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by H_H View Post
    But it’s an investment game, not a speculation game, Rebel!

    I have been advising for years:

    25% Gold
    25% US Treasury Bills
    25% 25% Total Stock Market ETF or mutual fund
    25% 30-year US Treasury Bonds

    That will be my allotment for the game. It will not do anything too thrillingly wonderful, as crypto currencies may do, but neither will it thrillingly crash, as crypto currencies may.

    Did you just copy Ray Dalio's all-weather portfolio and simplify it by making everything 25% or are you a super genius who just happened to have a similar allocation of T-bills, T-Bonds, stocks and gold that makes no sense yet that mix somehow has almost no down years and a decent return?

    Anyway, here the exact mix. https://www.etftrends.com/fixed-inco...g-killer-year/

    30% Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI)

    40% iShares 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT)

    15% iShares 7-10 Year Treasury ETF (IEF)
    7.50% SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD)
    7.50% PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC)

  25. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by Krugminator2 View Post
    Did you just copy Ray Dalio's all-weather portfolio and simplify it by making everything 25% or are you a super genius
    No, I did not copy Roy Dalio's all-weather portfolio, and in fact am unfamiliar with him (though the phrase "all-weather portfolio" sounds familiar.... ahh, nope, the one I had seen is Tony Robbins').

    If the only other possibility is my being a super genius (and that is the dichotomy you offered), I graciously accept the compliment.

    have a similar allocation of T-bills, T-Bonds, stocks and gold that makes no sense yet that mix somehow has almost no down years and a decent return?
    Hmm, well, it's... similar. Everything is similar in a way. It's like, probably all movie scripts seem very similar to the guy who has to read 200 of them a week.

    Mine is better, of course! :P But his is somewhat similar. In the sense that you said: it does have stocks, bonds, gold, and cash. But in quite different proportions and he recommends a very narrow subset of "stocks" via which he appears to be attempting to track commodity performance, rather than the prosperity of an economy that the total stock market would track.

  26. #23
    Okay I am going to sell my SWN at this moment at $4.31. 29,325 shares @ $.90 per share profit. Right now I have $126,392.50. I expect it to pull back and will purchase back at a future time.

    Market Summary > Southwestern Energy Company
    NYSE: SWN
    4.29 USD +0.18 (4.38%)
    Jan 9, 12:01 PM EST · Disclaimer
    4.16 USD ‎9:30 AM
    Open 4.16
    High 4.31
    Low 4.12
    Mkt cap 2.47B
    P/E ratio 2.64
    Last edited by Schifference; 01-09-2019 at 11:03 AM.

  27. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by H_H View Post
    But it’s an investment game, not a speculation game, Rebel!

    I have been advising for years:

    25% Gold
    25% US Treasury Bills
    25% 25% Total Stock Market ETF or mutual fund
    25% 30-year US Treasury Bonds

    That will be my allotment for the game. It will not do anything too thrillingly wonderful, as crypto currencies may do, but neither will it thrillingly crash, as crypto currencies may.
    There was no current price for your purchases. How will we know what you paid or how you did?



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  29. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by H_H View Post
    nope, the one I had seen is Tony Robbins').

    So you did. Tony Robbins got that portfolio from Dalio. Not that I am super hung up on this but come on. It is such a strange portfolio.

    But in quite different proportions
    You: 50% Treasury products 25% gold 25% stocks

    Robbins/Dalio: 55% Treasuries products 15% Commodities and 30% stocks.

    and he recommends a very narrow subset of "stocks" via which he appears to be attempting to track commodity performance, rather than the prosperity of an economy that the total stock market would track.
    You literally recommend the same fund with the same wording.

    25% Total Stock Market ETF or mutual fund

    Dalio: 30% Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF
    (VTI)

  30. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by Krugminator2 View Post
    So you did. Tony Robbins got that portfolio from Dalio. Not that I am super hung up on this but come on. It is such a strange portfolio.



    You: 50% Treasury products 25% gold 25% stocks

    Robbins/Dalio: 55% Treasuries products 15% Commodities and 30% stocks.



    You literally recommend the same fund with the same wording.



    Dalio: 30% Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF
    (VTI)
    Ahh, your line break threw me off. I missed VTI and thought there was only the 7.5% of commodity stocks.

    Anyway, rest assured there are a lot — or at least several — portfolios in this broad category of “Portfolios that Don’t Totally Stink and are Legitimately Diversified”. Check out portfolio charts.com if interested. See if you can figure out who I *am* disciple to.

    And Schiff it’s public information. Just check the index, spot price, bond price.
    Last edited by H_H; 01-09-2019 at 11:27 PM.

  31. #27
    Purchased back 30381 shares of SWN today at $4.16.



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