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Thread: Yet Another Trillion-Dollar Unfunded Liability: Why California Is Burning

  1. #1

    Yet Another Trillion-Dollar Unfunded Liability: Why California Is Burning

    The apocalyptic fires that hit California last month have left observers scratching their heads and wondering how destruction on that scale could be possible – and how much it will cost in the future if the causes aren’t addressed immediately.
    This morning’s Wall Street Journal concludes that 1) the problems aren’t being addressed and 2) this failure is going to cost a fortune that no government is prepared to cover (emphasis added below).
    Why Californians Were Drawn Toward the Fire Zones

    Building codes, state grants and low insurance rates have encouraged people to flee expensive cities for their dangerously fire-prone fringes.

    A Nov. 15 view in Paradise, Calif., above, shows charred remains of houses among the trees after the Camp Fire burned down more than 11,000 homes. PHOTO: CAROLYN COLE/LOS ANGELES TIMES/GETTY IMAGES
    The historically deadly wildfires that have roared through California this fall, and a string of similarly destructive ones over the past two years, are boosting calls to do more to slow climate change. But another underlying problem has contributed to the fires’ tragic damage: For decades, California, supposedly the greenest of states, has artificially lowered the cost of encroaching on nature by living in the woods.
    Permissive building codes, low insurance rates and soaring taxpayer spending on firefighting and other services have provided an economic framework that has encouraged people to flee the state’s increasingly expensive cities for their leafy fringes. The forested exurbs, including places once thought too hilly or too dry to develop safely, have offered comparatively affordable living with jaw-dropping views.
    The upshot: More houses have been packed into the fire-prone border between civilization and forest—known among planners as the “wildland-urban interface,” or WUI—in California than in any other state.
    This problem isn’t restricted to California’s woodland. Along the coasts, loose building standards and easy federal flood insurance have socialized the costs of building in the path of worsening storms and rising sea levels. It is time, in the parlance of classical economics, to internalize the long-externalized costs of building in the trees or by the beach.
    California, both a bellwether of aggressive environmental policy and a pioneer of suburban sprawl, typifies the problem. For years, Cal Fire, the state wildfire-fighting agency, has been spending increasing sums to put out wildfires, as has the U.S. Forest Service. Already by 2006, according to an audit, most of the money the forest service was spending to put out large fires was “directly linked to protecting private property” in the wildland-urban interface. Meanwhile, at public cost, government has been encouraging more development by pushing infrastructure—roads, utilities, rescue services—ever farther into the forest.
    Lax building codes are at the base of the problem. Even in California, which has some of the toughest such rules in the country, they often aren’t adequate or adequately enforced. The codes often dictate the use of fire-retardant materials in house construction but typically say nothing about how a development must be situated on the landscape—and that can help determine whether that development will burn in a fire, says Max Moritz, a cooperative-extension wildfire specialist at the University of California, Santa Barbara. “So the developers are able to come in, propose something, and often, without too much oversight, walk away after having built something in a dangerous place,” he says. “And we pick up the tab.”
    In Redding, a city in far northern California where some neighborhoods were devastated by this summer’s massive Carr Fire, city officials have worked in the past with developers navigating the building code to help them save on costs, City Manager Barry Tippin says. For instance, Redding let a developer build a subdivision with just one road in and out instead of two under an allowed exception in the code; the one road was wider, but two are generally considered safer in an emergency. Now, he says, officials are reassessing their view of the code and have won a grant to pay for an outside review of their rules. “In the future, we should take a more deliberate and maybe harder stance,” he says.
    Between 2000 and 2013, more than three-quarters of all buildings destroyed by fire in California were in the state’s WUI, and more were destroyed there than in all the WUI areas across the rest of the continental U.S. combined, according to a recent study led by Anu Kramer, a researcher at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. That is partly because of increasing construction in the WUI and partly because it is so weakly regulated. Ray Rasker, executive director of Headwaters Economics, a Montana-based nonprofit research firm that specializes in wildfires, notes that rules to protect buildings from fire—for instance, requirements for sprinklers and for regular fire-code inspections—tend nationally to be far stricter in urban areas than in the WUI, despite the relative risk. “If you place a home out in the woods, in a tinderbox, those rules don’t apply,” he says. “It’s backward.”
    Once a house is built in California’s WUI, the state’s unusually low insurance rates have the effect of shifting much of the real cost. The average California homeowner pays about $1,000 a year in homeowner’s insurance—about half the level in Florida or Texas, two other states with markedly rising incidences of natural disasters believed linked to climate change.
    That is a result of state policy, not an accident. California has an elected state insurance commissioner, one of 11 in the country who are elected, who caps the rates private insurance companies may charge. When insurers seek permission to raise rates to cover catastrophes, state law requires that they average at least 20 years of prior catastrophic-loss data, which minimizes the recent dramatic increases in fire damage. Those increases, wildlife specialists warn, suggest things to come.
    If your response after reading this is “Those people are total morons,” you’re probably in the majority. Using artificially-cheap insurance and purposefully-lax building standards to destroy what’s left of a unique ecosystem is a crime against nature.
    And asking taxpayers to cover the resulting catastrophic costs is political suicide. But of course the politicians, builders and bureaucrats who created this system will have moseyed off into the sunset with their fortunes intact before the full consequences come crashing down on tomorrow’s taxpayers.
    Add the cost of entire future communities consumed by flames to the already gargantuan pile of unfunded pension liabilities that the state has accumulated, then toss in the plunge in tax revenue sure to result from the coming recession and equities bear market, and California might have bumped Illinois from the top of the “first state to go bankrupt” list.
    As for why non-Californians should care, well, just go back a decade and note how the federal government (read national taxpayers) had to take on nearly the entire $10 trillion liabilities of the mortgage industry. Bankrupt states will no doubt get similar bail-outs when their time comes. Which means the dysfunction will eventually find its way into the currency markets.

    Gold becomes more necessary with every one of these stories.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...fornia-burning



    Just like Illinois I say we give them a ONE TIME bailout in exchange for them surrendering their statehood along with their Senators, Reps and Electors, then we can grant Statehood to the red counties.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment



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  3. #2
    And the people of California allowed it all to happen.
    "Perhaps one of the most important accomplishments of my administration is minding my own business."

    Calvin Coolidge

  4. #3
    CalExit
    Do something Danke

  5. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Just like Illinois I say we give them a ONE TIME bailout in exchange for them surrendering their statehood along with their Senators, Reps and Electors, then we can grant Statehood to the red counties.
    So, rachet up the debt even more giving even more federal money to California, then let them off the hook so they can escape the consequences of the national debt implosion.

    Sounds like the sort of plan only a Californian could dream up.
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    You only want the freedoms that will undermine the nation and lead to the destruction of liberty.

  6. #5
    I lived on the edge of the San Fernando Valley in the 90s. The dry chaparral of the surrounding hills was a tinder box. However it was illegal for the locals to pick up the dead and fallen branches to use in fireplaces and woodburning stoves. Those dry branches just piled up and that area burned down a few years ago.
    ...

  7. #6
    Maybe they should require all citizens to move to the cities. And not just in California.

  8. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by acptulsa View Post
    So, rachet up the debt even more giving even more federal money to California, then let them off the hook so they can escape the consequences of the national debt implosion.

    Sounds like the sort of plan only a Californian could dream up.
    In exchange for being free of their communist Senators, Reps and Electors it would be a bargain and it would certainly be preferable to the no strings bailout that they will undoubtedly get anyway.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  9. #8
    Seems you two have to clock in at the same time.
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    You only want the freedoms that will undermine the nation and lead to the destruction of liberty.



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  11. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Maybe they should require all citizens to move to the cities. And not just in California.
    Maybe we should get government out of the insurance business and out of the way of sane forest/brush management.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  12. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    Maybe we should get government out of the insurance business and out of the way of sane forest/brush management.
    The article calls for even more government involvement. Stronger building codes. More restrictions on where you can build. It also complains that the government suggested insurance rates are too low.

    “So the developers are able to come in, propose something, and often, without too much oversight, walk away after having built something in a dangerous place,” he says. “And we pick up the tab.”
    Once a house is built in California’s WUI, the state’s unusually low insurance rates have the effect of shifting much of the real cost. The average California homeowner pays about $1,000 a year in homeowner’s insurance—about half the level in Florida or Texas, two other states with markedly rising incidences of natural disasters believed linked to climate change.
    More restrictions. Higher insurance rates.

  13. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    The article calls for even more government involvement. Stronger building codes. More restrictions on where you can build. It also complains that the government suggested insurance rates are too low.





    More restrictions. Higher insurance rates.
    And they are wrong.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  14. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    And they are wrong.
    The whole premise of the article (besides the usual Zerohedge Disaster Porn) is that people should not be able to build wherever they want to. The government should take control of the situation.

  15. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    The whole premise of the article (besides the usual Zerohedge Disaster Porn) is that people should not be able to build wherever they want to. The government should take control of the situation.
    And they are wrong.

    The real problem which they also deal with is government stupidity that encourages bad behavior and interferes with proper forest/brush management.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  16. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    The article calls for even more government involvement. Stronger building codes. More restrictions on where you can build. It also complains that the government suggested insurance rates are too low.





    More restrictions. Higher insurance rates.
    Is that what it says? Or does it lay the blame at government capping insurance rates and granting cronies special exemptions?
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    You only want the freedoms that will undermine the nation and lead to the destruction of liberty.

  17. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    And they are wrong.

    The real problem which they also deal with is government stupidity that encourages bad behavior and interferes with proper forest/brush management.
    How should the forests be managed? Who should be in charge to make sure that happens? The Government? State or Federal (since they own the lands)? If there was no government, would people stop building in places where a disaster could possibly occur (every state has disasters- fires, floods, storms, earthquakes, etc.)? Should government stop people from building in such places? What would a free market solution to use of public lands look like? (see "The Tragedy of the Commons")?
    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 12-10-2018 at 02:09 PM.

  18. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    How should the forests be managed?
    More logging and brush clearing is the short version.

    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Who should be in charge to make sure that happens?
    Get out of the way and it will happen because it will be profitable.

    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    The Government? State or Federal (since they own the lands)? If there was no government, would people stop building in places where a disaster could possibly occur (every state has disasters- fires, floods, storms, earthquakes, etc.)? Should government stop people from building in such places? What would a free market solution to use of public lands look like? (see "The Tragedy of the Commons")?
    Government is getting in the way of proper management and subsidizing stupid behavior, if government would stop those things the problem would largely take care of itself.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment



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  20. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    More logging and brush clearing is the short version.


    Get out of the way and it will happen because it will be profitable.


    Government is getting in the way of proper management and subsidizing stupid behavior, if government would stop those things the problem would largely take care of itself.
    So cut down the forests and they won't burn. Great idea!

  21. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    So cut down the forests and they won't burn. Great idea!
    It is more complicated but I can understand how a simple mind like yours only thinks of clear cutting when logging is mentioned.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  22. #19
    Are you two having fun dumbing down this conversation?

    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    What would a free market solution to use of public lands look like?
    What would free market public lands look like? Gee, Zippy. I don't know. And neither does anyone else.

    But when people don't expect to be bailed out for dumb behavior, they tend to check to see if buying somewhere may be risky. At the very least, they check to see if insurance rates are unusually high in a place. Or, at least, they did before federal disaster relief, and federal flood insurance, and zoning cronyism creating a false sense of security among people who actually think bureaucrats have half as much sense as they say they do.
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    You only want the freedoms that will undermine the nation and lead to the destruction of liberty.

  23. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Maybe they should require all citizens to move to the cities. And not just in California.
    That's the agenda.
    “The spirits of darkness are now among us. We have to be on guard so that we may realize what is happening when we encounter them and gain a real idea of where they are to be found. The most dangerous thing you can do in the immediate future will be to give yourself up unconsciously to the influences which are definitely present.” ~ Rudolf Steiner



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