Are We In A Recession Already?

[oyarde]

Since this poll is far one way I went ahead and voted never under trump . LOL

[Krugminator2]

This reminds of the poll where people said Republicans would GAIN seats in the mid term The answer to "Are we in a recession?" is no. It isn't really even debatable. We might be by 2020. But geez. No. We are not in a recession. We are close to the top of the cycle though. and might start rolling over soon.


"Currently (last updated December 6, 2018, using data through November), this "Yield Curve" model shows a 15.7683% probability of a recession in the United States 12 months ahead."
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4227461-probability-u-s-recession-december-2018

[Krugminator2]

Yes. Please see Rothbard's explanation of recession/depression in "Man, Economy, And State" for a detailed explanation why.

I am going to pass on reading it. But did he just make up definitions? Is that why you answered "yes".

[heavenlyboy34]

I am going to pass on reading it. But did he just make up definitions? Is that why you answered "yes".

No he didn't. He pointed out how modern economists had made up definitions. I answered "yes" because of what I know about Business Cycle Theory and my reading of Hayek on recessions.

[Fox McCloud]

Yield curve recently fllipped; traditionally, this precedes a recession by 18-38 months, with an average of 28 months to a recession, after this occurs.

It's not a perfect predictor, but it's been generally accurate.

So ten to err on the side of "probably in another 2 years"

[Zippyjuan]

Dont try to put this on me. You define everything however you want. One thing is for sure, however you define recession, I will be sure to not define it the same way. You have blown every ounce of trust I have in anything that comes out of your mouth or keyboard.

Joke: How do you know if Zippy is lying? There are words on your screen.

Just trying to learn why you consider us to be in a recession. By the definition economist use, we are not in recession. If not being in a recession means everybody has a good paying job we are in terminal, never ending recessions. (the term "recession" did not even exist until after the Great Depression to distinguish deep declines in the economy from smaller ones).

https://www.business-case-analysis.c...ess-cycle.html

What is a Recession?
In the United States, economists define a recession as two consecutive quarters of decline in the GDP. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NEBR) provides this definition, but it is not, however, the only definition in use. An alternate interpretation even appears within the NEBR, from its Business Cycle Dating Committee. This committee reviews several economic indicators, including employment, real income, retail sales, and other factors. As a result, It defines a recession as the timespan between the peak and a trough in the above chart.

The term recession did not appear until the time of the Great Depression of 1929-33. Before that, the term depression could refer to any decrease in economic output. "Recession" was coined at this time to distinguish between the severe conditions of the early 1930s, on the one hand, and less severe economic downturns, on the other hand, such as those occurring in 1910 and 1913.

[DamianTV]

Just trying to learn why you consider us to be in a recession. By the definition economist use, we are not in recession. If not being in a recession means everybody has a good paying job we are in terminal, never ending recessions. (the term "recession" did not even exist until after the Great Depression to distinguish deep declines in the economy from smaller ones).

https://www.business-case-analysis.c...ess-cycle.html

Horse$#@!. Youre trying to start fights by having people subjectively interpret everything their own way so that you can turn right back around and say "by your definition there is no recession". Tell me, Zippy, how do you define "Troll"?

[idiom]

Back out the government debt increases the past ten years, what happens to GDP?