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Thread: Moldova's Elections Could Shift the Country's Focus East

  1. #1

    Moldova's Elections Could Shift the Country's Focus East

    As the Russia-West standoff continues unabated over Ukraine, a lesser-known ó yet no less intense ó competition is playing out between Moscow and the West over next-door Moldova. While it pales in comparison to the size and population of Ukraine (Moldova has roughly 3.3 million people in a territory the size of Maryland), its small stature belies its significance. Now, parliamentary polls in February could do much to shift the balance in this standoff in favor of Russia.

    The country's location in the lowlands of Eastern Europe between the Black Sea and the Carpathian Mountains has made it a strategic attraction to larger powers and empires over the years, including the Russians, the Ottomans and the Germans. The area that Moldova inhabits, known as the Bessarabian gap, has been used as an invasion route from Russia into Southeastern Europe and vice versa.
    In modern times, Moldova has largely fallen into Russia's sphere of influence. The territory was incorporated into the Russian Empire in the early 19th century and spent most of the 20th as the Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic in the USSR. In the post-Soviet era, Moldova has been swinging between the East and the West, oscillating between Russia and the European Union (particularly Romania, which has close ethnic, linguistic and historical ties to the area). The country aligned with Russia under the Communist Party in the initial post-Soviet years, but a pro-European coalition came into power in 2009. The Euromaidan uprising in Ukraine in 2014 pushed Moldova deeper toward the pro-EU camp, but corruption scandals have weakened the pro-EU coalition, facilitating the rise of the Socialist Party, whose leader Igor Dodon won the presidential elections in 2016. As it stands now, Moldova is divided between a pro-Russian president and a pro-European Parliament.




    Now, another election is looming in Moldova. After 10 years of parliamentary rule under a pro-European coalition, Dodon and the Socialists are poised to consolidate their power in the Feb. 24, 2019, polls. Indeed, surveys from early September give the Socialists a hefty lead at 36.6 percent, while the pro-European Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) trails in a distant second at 11.9 percent. The ruling pro-European Democratic Party has fallen to 11.2 percent, while another Westward-looking party, Dignity and Truth, sits at 10.6 percent.
    The polls reflect a roughly even split between the pro-Russian Socialists and three pro-European parties, but there is more than meets the eye. Though the Democratic Party trails far behind the Socialists, its leader is oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc, who wields considerable power behind the scenes in the capital, Chisinau. Plahotniuc and the Democrats are nominally pro-European, but a corruption scandal and several political maneuvers have alienated the Democrats from other pro-European parties in the country, as well as the bloc itself. Those incidents include the theft of $1 billion from Moldova's largest banks and political maneuverings to revamp the electoral system, as well as the freezing of EU funding for the country after Moldovan authorities invalidated the winner of Chisinau's mayoral elections on a technicality.

    Accordingly, the Democrats could align with the Socialists, instead of the other pro-European parties, after the elections, shifting Moldova's foreign policy orientation away from the European Union and toward Russia. Such a realignment would be driven less by foreign policy ideology than political pragmatism, especially as Plahotniuc is well-aware that his political survival could depend on sidelining the PAS and Truth and Dignity, two non-systemic opposition parties whose leaders have called for his imprisonment and his party's dissolution due to alleged corruption. Regardless of the reasons underpinning such a foreign policy realignment, the implications would be significant ó not only because it could mark the de facto end of Chisinau's push toward EU integration but also because it could rearrange Moldova's political and economic ties with several key regional actors.


    The country that stands to gain most from such an arrangement is Russia. Chisinau and Moscow have experienced strained relations since the emergence of Moldova's pro-European government, and particularly since Moldova signed the Association and Free Trade Agreement with the European Union in 2014. The move prompted Russia to halt agricultural imports from Moldova, whose leading exports are farm goods such as fruit, cereals and wine. But since coming to power, Dodon has criticized the country's integration efforts with the European Union and NATO and pursued closer ties with Russia, acquiring observer status in the Moscow-led Eurasian Economic Union.
    Until now, the pro-European Parliament led by Prime Minister Pavel Filip has stymied Dodon's efforts to bring Moldova politically and economically closer to Russia, but this resistance could weaken after February's parliamentary elections. While Dodon and Plahotniuc would be loath to completely abandon ties with the European Union (the country ships 70 percent of its exports to the bloc), they could freeze or reverse the EU integration process, gradually chipping away at Moldova's ties to the union in favor of Russia. The European Union has already frozen much of its financial assistance to Moldova over controversial electoral changes effectively overseen by Plahotniuc, who was trying to maintain his power behind the scenes and keep rivals such as Dignity and Truth leader Andrei Nastase and PAS leader Maia Sandu at bay. And the elections could open the door to tighter political and economic ties with Russia.

    More at: https://worldview.stratfor.com/artic...rys-focus-east
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment



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  3. #2
    ====


    https://twitter.com/Ozkok_/status/1052863477491138566


    https://twitter.com/Ozkok_/status/1052982742261096449


    https://twitter.com/Ozkok_/status/1053012524805832704

  4. #3
    Moldovan President Igor Dodon met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, where both leaders signed a number of political and economic agreements, Tass reported Oct. 31. Dodon further stated that NATO should not be present in Moldova and that the Moldovan Orthodox Church would remain a part of the Russian Orthodox Church.

    More at: https://worldview.stratfor.com/situa...ign-agreements
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  5. #4
    Moldova will hold parliamentary elections in February.
    Brussels had treated Moldova quite differently just some time ago... It has all changed now.
    The EU is gradually realizing that the oligarchs-ruled Moldova is more of a headache than an asset.

    EU Suspends Aid To Moldova: Government Suffers Huge Setback Before Elections
    https://www.strategic-culture.org/ne...elections.html


    An oligarchs-ruled state:
    plunged in corruption
    backsliding on democracy
    and violating international commitments

    MASSIVE BOOTLICKING (ain't enuff)
    The ruling oligarchy has gone to great lengths to demonstrate its “loyalty” and anti-Moscow stance:
    ►joined the anti-Russia political alliance with Ukraine and Georgia
    ►has sent its troops to participate in NATO exercises in open violation of its national laws.
    ►embraced the North Atlantic Alliance and announced a decision to buy lethal weapons from the pact’s members.
    ►on the way to become a foothold for US military, including construction of eight training facilities to host American Marines.

    BLIND EYE?
    As long as it stuck to its policy of open hostility toward Moscow,
    the ruling elite was hoping that a blind eye would be turned on what’s happening in the country.
    ►Does this hostility meet the interests of common people in Moldova?
    (the country which is totally dependent on Russian gas imports via the pipeline system that passes through Ukraine)
    ►Will EU taxpayers pay for energy supplies to Moldova in case Russia stops the supplies?
    ►Will they shoulder the burden of building interconnectors to Moldova stretching from other European countries?

    CHANGE COMING
    ►The parliamentary elections in Moldova are scheduled on February 2019.
    ►The pro-Russian Socialist Party Moldovan President Igor Dodon is predicted to win.
    ►The country’s foreign policy will change as a result to make Moscow and Chisinau friends and good neighbors again.
    ►The current government’s moves and plans will lose their relevance.
    ►The EU could restore its assistance.
    ►Russia could re-start normal economic cooperation.
    The US will lose an ally.

    The European Parliament’s resolution and the following move by the European Commission
    demonstrate that being anti-Russian is not enough to automatically become a part of a United Europe.

  6. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by goldenequity View Post
    The US will lose an albatross.
    Fixed it.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  7. #6
    Enrico Ivanov
    Moldova's President Dodon proposes Russia joint declaration on strategic partnership
    http://tass.com/world/1031830

  8. #7
    The pro-Russian Socialist Party gained the most votes in Moldova's Feb. 24 parliamentary elections with 31.33 percent, followed by the pro-European group ACUM with 26.44 percent and the Democratic Party at 23.82 percent, Moldova.org reported Feb. 25. The Moldovan parliament now has 45 days to form a new government before the president dissolves the legislature and calls for new elections.

    More at: https://worldview.stratfor.com/situa...tary-elections
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  9. #8
    After months of talks to form a governing coalition, Moldova's pro-Russian Socialist Party and the pro-European ACUM bloc reached a consensus agreement, naming the ACUM's Maia Sandu as the new prime minister, Deutsche Welle reported June 9. However, the Democratic Party of Moldova refused to accept the deal, and, in accordance with the country's constitutional court, Moldovan Prime Minister Pavel Filip of the Democratic Party dissolved parliament and called for early elections in September. Moldovan President Igor Dodon has since called on Russia and the European Union to intervene to help resolve the crisis.

    More at: https://worldview.stratfor.com/situa...duce-agreement
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment



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  11. #9
    This guy makes the best videos about Moldova, Belarus, and Russia.

    He has observed that Moldovan graffiti is dominated with sketches of penises.

    "Every post is about Hillary and pedophilia. I love them both soooo much!!!!!!!" Zippyjuan

  12. #10
    Moldovan President Igor Dodon has reversed a June 10 decree made by acting Prime Minister Pavel Filip to dissolve parliament and declare early elections, saying Filip's order was itself not constitutional despite being authorized by the country's constitutional court, Politico reported June 11. In response, supporters of the Filip's Democratic Party announced plans to continuously protest outside government buildings for the rest of the month.

    The dueling orders are deepening the political crisis in Moldova, where essentially two separate governments are now working against each other. On one side are the country's Socialist and ACUM blocs, which earlier had agreed to form a coalition government, and on the other are the Democrats, which protested the coalition agreement, saying it missed a constitutional deadline.

    More at: https://worldview.stratfor.com/situa...ment-deepening
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  13. #11
    Vlad Plahotniuc, the oligarch leader of Moldova's Democratic Party, reportedly left the country the day after the party's June 14 announcement that Prime Minister Pavel Filip would resign and that the party would withdraw from power, RFL/RL reported June 15. The moves cool the political crisis that had been simmering in the country for the past week.

    More at: https://worldview.stratfor.com/situa...litical-crisis
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankindÖitís people I canít stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment



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