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Thread: October Surprise

  1. #121
    Quote Originally Posted by Krugminator2 View Post
    Between Drudge, Ron Paul, Alan Greenspan saying to sell everything, etc, there is an above average chance of a selloff/gap down tomorrow that takes out the February lows and then a rally on whatever statement the Fed puts out.

    A gap down tomorrow would be the best Christmas gift in history.
    Better save yourself , when in doubt I get some gold Indians and guns .
    Do something Danke



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  3. #122
    Quote Originally Posted by Krugminator2 View Post
    Between Drudge, Ron Paul, Alan Greenspan saying to sell everything, etc, there is an above average chance of a selloff/gap down tomorrow that takes out the February lows and then a rally on whatever statement the Fed puts out.

    A gap down tomorrow would be the best Christmas gift in history.
    If you mean you think it'd be a buying opportunity, well, good luck catching that knife.

    There's nothing but air under this market; I wouldn't be buying till the Fed announces QE4 next year.
    "Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard."

    -H. L. Mencken

  4. #123
    Quote Originally Posted by Krugminator2 View Post
    Between Drudge, Ron Paul, Alan Greenspan saying to sell everything, etc, there is an above average chance of a selloff/gap down tomorrow that takes out the February lows and then a rally on whatever statement the Fed puts out.

    A gap down tomorrow would be the best Christmas gift in history.
    I expect the Fed to announce it is raising rates again. The goal being that when markets dump on the news, Trump can vent more about how the Fed is making bad decisions and hurting the economy. I think there really is a 38D chess game going on here but Trump and the Fed are on one side of the board and everyone else is on the other side. There's bigger agendas underway, with Trump playing (controlled) opposition to the Fed.
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing." - Ron Paul

    The entire internet is the domain of paid shills and bots. If you don't know this by now....

    Israel, under control of the Crown and, ultimately, the Vatican, own the USA. If you don't know this by now....

    Talk to people about liberty. You won't find it on websites, you won't find it in politicians.

    Visiting the Outer Banks of NC?
    Outer Banks NC Fishing Boat Rentals

  5. #124
    Quote Originally Posted by devil21 View Post
    I expect the Fed to announce it is raising rates again. The goal being that when markets dump on the news, Trump can vent more about how the Fed is making bad decisions and hurting the economy. I think there really is a 38D chess game going on here but Trump and the Fed are on one side of the board and everyone else is on the other side. There's bigger agendas underway, with Trump playing (controlled) opposition to the Fed.
    Rate hike announced and market dump in progress (Dow -500 and jumping in big chunks).

    Tweet from Trump about how the Fed is hurting everyone coming in 3....2....1....
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing." - Ron Paul

    The entire internet is the domain of paid shills and bots. If you don't know this by now....

    Israel, under control of the Crown and, ultimately, the Vatican, own the USA. If you don't know this by now....

    Talk to people about liberty. You won't find it on websites, you won't find it in politicians.

    Visiting the Outer Banks of NC?
    Outer Banks NC Fishing Boat Rentals

  6. #125
    Quote Originally Posted by devil21 View Post
    Rate hike announced and market dump in progress (Dow -500 and jumping in big chunks).

    Tweet from Trump about how the Fed is hurting everyone coming in 3....2....1....
    Dow finished off about 350 points. Yesterday it was up about that (380). Fed warned about a slowing of the US economy and reduced their forecast for more interest rate hikes next year from three to two. Fed to continue their "50- B's" or allowing their holdings of securities to reduce by $50 billion a month by not replacing maturing notes of that amount with new ones.
    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 12-19-2018 at 04:40 PM.


    Donald Trump: 'What you're seeing and what you're reading is not what's happening'

    "Truth isn't truth"- Rudy Giuliani

    "China has total respect for Donald Trump and for Donald Trump's very, very large brain," - Donald Trump.

    "Yeah, I have to say these guys(trolls) are pretty sharp. Sort of good to get a challenge and sharpen your thoughts." NorthCarolinaLiberty

    I am Zippy and I approve of this post. But you don't have to.

  7. #126
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    Dow finished off about 350 points. Yesterday it was up about that (380). Fed warned about a slowing of the US economy and reduced their forecast for more interest rate hikes next year from three to two. Fed to continue their "50- B's" or allowing their holdings of securities to reduce by $50 billion a month by not replacing maturing notes of that amount with new ones.
    4pm close to 4pm close, yesterday was up ~120. Not sure what you're looking at.
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing." - Ron Paul

    The entire internet is the domain of paid shills and bots. If you don't know this by now....

    Israel, under control of the Crown and, ultimately, the Vatican, own the USA. If you don't know this by now....

    Talk to people about liberty. You won't find it on websites, you won't find it in politicians.

    Visiting the Outer Banks of NC?
    Outer Banks NC Fishing Boat Rentals

  8. #127
    Quote Originally Posted by devil21 View Post
    4pm close to 4pm close, yesterday was up ~120. Not sure what you're looking at.
    Guess I misread. The 380 points was a high during the day- not the close the day before. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/19/stoc...-decision.html

    The Dow gave up a 381 point gain and closed 351 points lower.


    Donald Trump: 'What you're seeing and what you're reading is not what's happening'

    "Truth isn't truth"- Rudy Giuliani

    "China has total respect for Donald Trump and for Donald Trump's very, very large brain," - Donald Trump.

    "Yeah, I have to say these guys(trolls) are pretty sharp. Sort of good to get a challenge and sharpen your thoughts." NorthCarolinaLiberty

    I am Zippy and I approve of this post. But you don't have to.

  9. #128
    Instead of the market gapping down and panicking, the market gapped up and people were pretty casual about the market making a 1 year low. The VIX closed down on a selloff day which is very strange. That doesn't mean the market won't go up from here but there hasn't been real panic yet. Everyone had a game plan of buying 250 on the SPY (which was mine if it happened before the Fed announcement). Huge buying at 250. Kind of get the feeling everyone thinks the market is oversold and there is usually a Santa rally so people are a little too complacent. A little more selling would be nice.



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  11. #129
    Down 350 or so today on the DJIA; we're 200+ points below the February lows.

    The only good news for this market is that yields have dropped considerably, but they'll rise again on any rally.

    Nothing's changed in the massively indebted world, and nothing will until the Fed et al resume monetization (and then more interesting problems).

    I'm seeing no Santa Claus here: coal in the stockings of the complacent investors.
    "Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard."

    -H. L. Mencken

  12. #130
    Quote Originally Posted by r3volution 3.0 View Post
    Down 350 or so today on the DJIA; we're 200+ points below the February lows.

    The only good news for this market is that yields have dropped considerably, but they'll rise again on any rally.

    Nothing's changed in the massively indebted world, and nothing will until the Fed et al resume monetization (and then more interesting problems).

    I'm seeing no Santa Claus here: coal in the stockings of the complacent investors.
    It's down big today although I still think it's got away to go before people start panicking. It still doesn't look like that much of a drop if you look at a long term chart. And I agree, I think that rates are going to shoot back up to new highs before long.

    Here's a question for you. Let's assume the markets and economy keep tanking and the Fed reverses course and lower rates. Do you think long term rates go up or down?

  13. #131
    Quote Originally Posted by Madison320 View Post
    It's down big today although I still think it's got away to go before people start panicking. It still doesn't look like that much of a drop if you look at a long term chart. And I agree, I think that rates are going to shoot back up to new highs before long.
    Maybe. Seems pretty panicky to me. Put/call ratio at a major extreme. VIX is relatively extreme though could go some more. Not going to say the market has bottomed but it is close, at least time wise.

    Quote Originally Posted by r3volution 3.0 View Post
    I'm seeing no Santa Claus here: coal in the stockings of the complacent investors.
    I strongly disagree. It will be interesting to see who is right. I'm very bullish going into the last week of the year.
    Last edited by Krugminator2; 12-20-2018 at 02:53 PM.

  14. #132
    Mattis quitting and the government shutdown possibility would seem to be really negative. Think we get last of the selling tomorrow before a big rally.

  15. #133
    Gold could go over 1270.00 tonight and silver might close the week @ 15 .
    Do something Danke

  16. #134
    West Texas Crude could really hit the skids ( last drop 5 percent ) and drop to 43.00 , Brent Crude too , one year forecast is 52.00 or about 5 percent lower than the last drop of five percent took it . Copper holding steady . Wholesale gasoline is 1.32 .
    Do something Danke

  17. #135
    Dow could be set up to drop below 22 1/2 tomorrow ? Could it close the yr 15 percent under the high ?
    Do something Danke

  18. #136
    Quote Originally Posted by devil21 View Post
    Rate hike announced and market dump in progress (Dow -500 and jumping in big chunks).

    Tweet from Trump about how the Fed is hurting everyone coming in 3....2....1....
    Media reports Trump considering firing Powell.
    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...d-chair-powell

    Close enough...
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing." - Ron Paul

    The entire internet is the domain of paid shills and bots. If you don't know this by now....

    Israel, under control of the Crown and, ultimately, the Vatican, own the USA. If you don't know this by now....

    Talk to people about liberty. You won't find it on websites, you won't find it in politicians.

    Visiting the Outer Banks of NC?
    Outer Banks NC Fishing Boat Rentals



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  20. #137




    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santa_Claus_rally
    "An average rally of 1.3% has been noted during the last five trading days of December for the NYSE since 1950"


    One of two things is likely this week. A big rally or a crash. Lots of people seem to be bracing for a crash. Lots of Tweets about how markets have another 10% to go down, etc. I bet rally.

  21. #138
    Quote Originally Posted by Madison320 View Post
    It's down big today although I still think it's got away to go before people start panicking. It still doesn't look like that much of a drop if you look at a long term chart. And I agree, I think that rates are going to shoot back up to new highs before long.

    Here's a question for you. Let's assume the markets and economy keep tanking and the Fed reverses course and lower rates. Do you think long term rates go up or down?
    Funny you mention that, as that's exactly what I've been pondering recently...

    I think that the initial reaction to renewed easing next year will be for yields to drop.

    But, once it dawns on savvier investors what that means in the bigger picture (QE-to-infinity), yields will start rising again.

    We've recently seen flashes of the "four horsemen" (bonds down, dollar down, stocks down, gold up).

    I think that's going to become a much more common phenomenon not long after QE resumes.

    Quote Originally Posted by Krugminator2 View Post
    I strongly disagree. It will be interesting to see who is right. I'm very bullish going into the last week of the year.
    Well, we're down ~1100 points since this comment (~650 today).

    Looks like coal to me.
    "Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard."

    -H. L. Mencken

  22. #139
    On another note, PMs have been rallying (albeit modestly) as stocks have been crashing.

    If I were a gambling man, I'd be buying cheap SLV calls with both hands right now.

    If the crash continues and the Fed intervenes next year, PMs (esp silver) should go berserk.
    "Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard."

    -H. L. Mencken

  23. #140
    Quote Originally Posted by r3volution 3.0 View Post
    I'm seeing no Santa Claus here: coal in the stockings of the complacent investors.
    Looks like coal to me.
    I get a lot wrong and I certainly could have gotten this wrong. The problem is had the market dropped big there would have been endless posts about the world going to hell. But given that market had a big rally and history said that was more likely than not, I feel like I should point this out. Rallies after panics are the norm. That should be the lesson. Listening to Ron Paul or Peter Schiff will make you poor.

    Good job on the Silver call.

  24. #141
    Quote Originally Posted by Krugminator2 View Post
    I get a lot wrong and I certainly could have gotten this wrong. The problem is had the market dropped big there would have been endless posts about the world going to hell. But given that market had a big rally and history said that was more likely than not, I feel like I should point this out. Rallies after panics are the norm. That should be the lesson. Listening to Ron Paul or Peter Schiff will make you poor.

    Good job on the Silver call.
    This volatility says blood on the street (in a few weeks).

    The VIX still says lazy bastards; they're not AFRAID! ...yet (they will be).

    I wouldn't be getting short; rather getting long the right things.
    "Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard."

    -H. L. Mencken

  25. #142
    Quote Originally Posted by Krugminator2 View Post
    I get a lot wrong and I certainly could have gotten this wrong. The problem is had the market dropped big there would have been endless posts about the world going to hell. But given that market had a big rally and history said that was more likely than not, I feel like I should point this out. Rallies after panics are the norm. That should be the lesson. Listening to Ron Paul or Peter Schiff will make you poor.

    Good job on the Silver call.
    That's strange, since RP and Schiff are some of the few that advocate actually possessing real money, instead of private debt-based fiat money-substitute currency.
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing." - Ron Paul

    The entire internet is the domain of paid shills and bots. If you don't know this by now....

    Israel, under control of the Crown and, ultimately, the Vatican, own the USA. If you don't know this by now....

    Talk to people about liberty. You won't find it on websites, you won't find it in politicians.

    Visiting the Outer Banks of NC?
    Outer Banks NC Fishing Boat Rentals

  26. #143
    Quote Originally Posted by devil21 View Post
    That's strange, since RP and Schiff are some of the few that advocate actually possessing real money, instead of private debt-based fiat money-substitute currency.
    Schiff's gold fund (Euro Pacific Capital) has an average annual return of minus 0.20% a year (negative two tenths of one percent). https://www.europac.com/services/mutual-funds/ (not adjusting for inflation)


    Donald Trump: 'What you're seeing and what you're reading is not what's happening'

    "Truth isn't truth"- Rudy Giuliani

    "China has total respect for Donald Trump and for Donald Trump's very, very large brain," - Donald Trump.

    "Yeah, I have to say these guys(trolls) are pretty sharp. Sort of good to get a challenge and sharpen your thoughts." NorthCarolinaLiberty

    I am Zippy and I approve of this post. But you don't have to.

  27. #144
    Quote Originally Posted by r3volution 3.0 View Post
    This volatility says blood on the street (in a few weeks).

    I wouldn't be getting short; rather getting long the right things.
    Trade's over. One of the biggest Santa Rallies ever.

    Santa Rally: +4%

    Buying the close on Christmas Eve and holding until New Year's Eve: +6.6%



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  29. #145
    Quote Originally Posted by Krugminator2 View Post
    Trade's over. One of the biggest Santa Rallies ever.

    Santa Rally: +4%

    Buying the close on Christmas Eve and holding until New Year's Eve: +6.6%
    Dunno whether it was one of the biggest but it sure was one of the most bizarre.
    "Let it not be said that we did nothing." - Ron Paul

    The entire internet is the domain of paid shills and bots. If you don't know this by now....

    Israel, under control of the Crown and, ultimately, the Vatican, own the USA. If you don't know this by now....

    Talk to people about liberty. You won't find it on websites, you won't find it in politicians.

    Visiting the Outer Banks of NC?
    Outer Banks NC Fishing Boat Rentals

  30. #146
    Quote Originally Posted by Krugminator2 View Post
    Trade's over. One of the biggest Santa Rallies ever.

    Santa Rally: +4%

    Buying the close on Christmas Eve and holding until New Year's Eve: +6.6%
    One of the largest one day rallies since the 30s..

    If I were long-term long this market, I wouldn't be happy.

    Let's see what happens.
    "Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard."

    -H. L. Mencken

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