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I expect the Fed to announce it is raising rates again. The goal being that when markets dump on the news, Trump can vent more about how the Fed is making bad decisions and hurting the economy. I think there really is a 38D chess game going on here but Trump and the Fed are on one side of the board and everyone else is on the other side. There's bigger agendas underway, with Trump playing (controlled) opposition to the Fed.
"Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul
"We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book
"Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul
"We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book
Dow finished off about 350 points. Yesterday it was up about that (380). Fed warned about a slowing of the US economy and reduced their forecast for more interest rate hikes next year from three to two. Fed to continue their "50- B's" or allowing their holdings of securities to reduce by $50 billion a month by not replacing maturing notes of that amount with new ones.
Last edited by Zippyjuan; 12-19-2018 at 04:40 PM.
"Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul
"We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book
Guess I misread. The 380 points was a high during the day- not the close the day before. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/19/stoc...-decision.html
The Dow gave up a 381 point gain and closed 351 points lower.
Instead of the market gapping down and panicking, the market gapped up and people were pretty casual about the market making a 1 year low. The VIX closed down on a selloff day which is very strange. That doesn't mean the market won't go up from here but there hasn't been real panic yet. Everyone had a game plan of buying 250 on the SPY (which was mine if it happened before the Fed announcement). Huge buying at 250. Kind of get the feeling everyone thinks the market is oversold and there is usually a Santa rally so people are a little too complacent. A little more selling would be nice.
Down 350 or so today on the DJIA; we're 200+ points below the February lows.
The only good news for this market is that yields have dropped considerably, but they'll rise again on any rally.
Nothing's changed in the massively indebted world, and nothing will until the Fed et al resume monetization (and then more interesting problems).
I'm seeing no Santa Claus here: coal in the stockings of the complacent investors.
It's down big today although I still think it's got away to go before people start panicking. It still doesn't look like that much of a drop if you look at a long term chart. And I agree, I think that rates are going to shoot back up to new highs before long.
Here's a question for you. Let's assume the markets and economy keep tanking and the Fed reverses course and lower rates. Do you think long term rates go up or down?
Maybe. Seems pretty panicky to me. Put/call ratio at a major extreme. VIX is relatively extreme though could go some more. Not going to say the market has bottomed but it is close, at least time wise.
I strongly disagree. It will be interesting to see who is right. I'm very bullish going into the last week of the year.
Last edited by Krugminator2; 12-20-2018 at 02:53 PM.
Mattis quitting and the government shutdown possibility would seem to be really negative. Think we get last of the selling tomorrow before a big rally.
Gold could go over 1270.00 tonight and silver might close the week @ 15 .
Do something Danke
West Texas Crude could really hit the skids ( last drop 5 percent ) and drop to 43.00 , Brent Crude too , one year forecast is 52.00 or about 5 percent lower than the last drop of five percent took it . Copper holding steady . Wholesale gasoline is 1.32 .
Do something Danke
Dow could be set up to drop below 22 1/2 tomorrow ? Could it close the yr 15 percent under the high ?
Do something Danke
Media reports Trump considering firing Powell.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...d-chair-powell
Close enough...
"Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul
"We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book
Funny you mention that, as that's exactly what I've been pondering recently...
I think that the initial reaction to renewed easing next year will be for yields to drop.
But, once it dawns on savvier investors what that means in the bigger picture (QE-to-infinity), yields will start rising again.
We've recently seen flashes of the "four horsemen" (bonds down, dollar down, stocks down, gold up).
I think that's going to become a much more common phenomenon not long after QE resumes.
Well, we're down ~1100 points since this comment (~650 today).
Looks like coal to me.
On another note, PMs have been rallying (albeit modestly) as stocks have been crashing.
If I were a gambling man, I'd be buying cheap SLV calls with both hands right now.
If the crash continues and the Fed intervenes next year, PMs (esp silver) should go berserk.
I get a lot wrong and I certainly could have gotten this wrong. The problem is had the market dropped big there would have been endless posts about the world going to hell. But given that market had a big rally and history said that was more likely than not, I feel like I should point this out. Rallies after panics are the norm. That should be the lesson. Listening to Ron Paul or Peter Schiff will make you poor.
Good job on the Silver call.
"Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul
"We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book
Schiff's gold fund (Euro Pacific Capital) has an average annual return of minus 0.20% a year (negative two tenths of one percent). https://www.europac.com/services/mutual-funds/ (not adjusting for inflation)
"Let it not be said that we did nothing."-Ron Paul
"We have set them on the hobby-horse of an idea about the absorption of individuality by the symbolic unit of COLLECTIVISM. They have never yet and they never will have the sense to reflect that this hobby-horse is a manifest violation of the most important law of nature, which has established from the very creation of the world one unit unlike another and precisely for the purpose of instituting individuality."- A Quote From Some Old Book
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