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Thread: Number Two Senate Republican Doubtful About Passage of USMCA/NAFTA 2.0 Deal

  1. #1

    Number Two Senate Republican Doubtful About Passage of USMCA/NAFTA 2.0 Deal

    Following last-minute approval of the new NAFTA “free-trade” deal — the USMCA — that now includes Canada, the number two Senate Republican John Cornyn from Texas expressed doubts it could pass Senate muster. Cornyn told reporters: “I know people are still going through the details but it’s not a foregone conclusion that it will get confirmation by the Senate.” He said the earliest the Senate could vote on the NSMCA would most certainly be after the November 6 midterm elections.

    There are political considerations, however, in trying to pass the trade deal after the midterms but before the Congress is sworn in in January 2019, during the Senate’s “lame duck” session. Oregon Democrat Ron Wyden said that, given the current political climate in Washington following the harrowing Senate confirmation hearings over the confirmation of Judge Brett Kavanaugh, “The last thing that is needed right now, at a time of great pubic frustration with what’s going on with Washington, is ramming this through.”

    More at: https://www.thenewamerican.com/world...nafta-2-0-deal
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

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  3. #2
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

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  4. #3
    The U.S. Senate’s top Republican said on Tuesday that senators will not vote to approve a revised North American trade pact in 2018, leaving the issue to the next Congress.

    Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell told Bloomberg Television that the Senate will not have time to take up the new United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement trade deal before 2019.
    “That will be a next-year issue because the process we have to go through doesn’t allow that to come up before the end of this year,” McConnell said.
    Last week, the Senate’s No. 2 Republican, John Cornyn, had said it was “unlikely” the Senate would be able to vote in the final weeks of 2018. Some industry leaders had held out slim hope that a deal could still be approved this year.
    The new trade deal is set to be signed on Nov. 30, but to comply with fast-track U.S. trade rules, Congress must get a report from the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) on the economic impacts of the trade deal.
    On Friday, the ITC said it had launched an investigation into the impacts of the deal and will hold a Nov. 15 hearing on the agreement. The commission said it would accept written comments through Dec. 20.
    Typically, Congress would hold hearings before approving a major trade agreement.

    More at: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-t...-idUSKCN1MQ283
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  5. #4
    3,000 Hondurans Make New Run For US Border; Trump Threatens To Cut Aid If Not Stopped




    The caravan risks a wider confrontation with Washington if Trump threatens to cut off aid to Mexico, as he has threatened Central America, or attempts to seal the border with the U.S. military. Every day, billions of dollars of trade crosses the U.S.-Mexico border, and any attempt to block those flows could inflict serious economic harm on Mexico. The newly renegotiated North American trade agreement is also hanging in the balance as it has yet to be ratified by legislatures.

    More at: https://www.thehour.com/news/article...r-13327884.php
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  6. #5
    Mexico’s decision to seek UN assistance came following a barrage of tweets from Trump over the past two days in which he railed against Democrats in Congress and the governments of Mexico, Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala, threatening to cut off U.S. aid to the Central American countries and close the southern border.

    “The assault on our country at our Southern Border, including the Criminal elements and DRUGS pouring in, is far more important to me, as President, than Trade or the USMCA. Hopefully Mexico will stop this onslaught at their Northern Border. All Democrats fault for weak laws!” he wrote in one of his tweets.

    More at: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ts/1690833002/
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  7. #6
    The Mexican Peso and Canadian loonie are tumbling after New Jersey Democrat, Rep. Bill Pascrell - who’s in line to chair the House Ways and Means Trade subcommittee - said the USMCA trade agreement between the U.S., Mexico and Canada is dead unless President Trump renegotiates it.
    “If he wants a Democratic votes they need to be not only changes in the legislation but more enforcement,” Pascrell says.


    Pascrell added that "there will not be a quick solution" to USMCA issues.

    More at: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...anges-nafta-20
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  8. #7
    G20

    Guy Elster‏
    BREAKING Trump, Trudeau, and Mexico President sign revised trade pact instead of NAFTA, but Trump still needs the Congress to confirm it


  9. #8



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  11. #9
    Basically the same old treaty which was the "worst treaty ever". Changes are the US can sell more milk to Canada (there are still limits on dairy). Mexico must pay its auto workers $15 an hour and the percent of North American parts in automobiles to qualify for the lower tariff is now higher.

    Ooh yeah, they changed the name so at least it doesn't sound like the same old treaty. USMC Agreement. And the tariff put in place allegedly to get the deal have not been removed.

    https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-fr...the-new-nafta/

    Overall, the changes from the old NAFTA are mostly cosmetic. After a year and a half of negotiations, the three parties are going to end up with a new trade deal that looks remarkably similar to the old NAFTA. The main structure of the deal is largely intact; the biggest changes include higher rules-of-origin requirements for the auto sector, marginally greater U.S. access to the Canadian dairy market, and a scale-back of the investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) rules. Thus we shouldn’t expect to see any dramatic economic effects from this deal—though if it convinces businesses’ that U.S. withdrawal from NAFTA is no longer on the table, resolving this uncertainty may lead to a small increase in investment.

    The most revealing change might be the agreement’s new name. The United States Trade Representative press release announcing the new deal referred to it as USMCA, an acronym for U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. This is, obviously, a terrible, unpronounceable name—but the shift itself is telling. It hints at the true underlying motivation for this renegotiation—Trump’s desire to overhaul the sullied “NAFTA” brand. On the campaign trail, Trump had denounced NAFTA as the worst trade deal ever; the administration seems to hope a new name will help sell these minor revisions as a substantial improvement. Yet, even if one accepts the idea of renaming the deal, there were some better branding options available to the negotiators: either MUSCA or CAMUS, for instance, would be far more pronounceable than the mouthful “USMCA.” Of course, neither of these alternatives would literally put “America First” the way USMCA does—perhaps explaining why they were passed over.
    It does still need to be approved by the three participating governments. Tomorrow is Mexico's president's last day in office.
    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 11-30-2018 at 01:38 PM.
    Donald Trump: 'What you're seeing and what you're reading is not what's happening'

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  12. #10
    Any urging for President's senior advisors?

    Mexico's Highest award for Trump son-in-law for help in renegotiating NAFTA

    Tue November 27, 2018
    (CNN)Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto will bestow Mexico's highest honor for foreigners on Jared Kushner on Friday in Buenos Aires, a source familiar with the matter tells CNN.
    The Order of the Aztec is Mexico's highest honor for foreigners and Kushner will receive it for his role in coordinating US-Mexico relations since President Donald Trump came into office, in particular his role in helping to renegotiate the NAFTA free trade agreement.

  13. #11
    U.S. President Donald Trump said on Saturday he will give formal notice to the U.S. Congress in the near future to terminate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), giving six months for lawmakers to approve a new trade deal signed on Friday."I will be formally terminating NAFTA shortly," Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on his way home from Argentina.
    "Just so you understand, when I do that - if for any reason we're unable to make a deal because of Congress then Congress will have a choice" of the new deal or returning to trade rules from before 1994 when NAFTA took effect, he said.
    Trump said the trade rules before NAFTA "work very well."

    More at: https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-not...--finance.html
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  14. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    U.S. President Donald Trump said on Saturday he will give formal notice to the U.S. Congress in the near future to terminate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), giving six months for lawmakers to approve a new trade deal signed on Friday."I will be formally terminating NAFTA shortly," Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on his way home from Argentina.
    "Just so you understand, when I do that - if for any reason we're unable to make a deal because of Congress then Congress will have a choice" of the new deal or returning to trade rules from before 1994 when NAFTA took effect, he said.
    Trump said the trade rules before NAFTA "work very well."

    More at: https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-not...--finance.html
    That may not quite be so simple. He can notify Congress, but since they passed a law ratifying it, they may also need to change that law before the ratification can be revoked. Also notifying of the intent to withdraw is not an actual withdrawl nor does it say you must withdraw at that point.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/politics...-order/524463/

    The equivalent text in the North American Free Trade Agreement, on the other hand, is less dramatic.

    Article 2205: Withdrawal

    A Party may withdraw from this Agreement six months after it provides written notice of withdrawal to the other Parties. If a Party withdraws, the Agreement shall remain in force for the remaining Parties.
    Under Article 50, the EU treaties “shall cease to apply” once the two-year transition period ends. Under Article 2205, however, a participating country “may withdraw” from the agreement once the six-month period ends. That’s no small difference: The first phrasing sets forth that a country must withdraw, while the second one indicates that a country can withdraw.

    Jon Johnson, an adviser to the Canadian government during the original NAFTA negotiations, described this crucial phrasing earlier this year as a potential barrier for Trump’s unilateral action. “Under the plain wording of NAFTA Article 2205, providing the written notice is simply a condition that a party has to fulfill before it proceeds to withdraw from NAFTA,” he wrote. “Providing the notice does not have the effect of causing a party to withdraw from NAFTA.”

    What’s more, Trump might not have the lawful authority to yank the United States out of the agreement—it’s a matter of debate. Many experts believe that, under Section 125 of the Trade Act of 1974, the president possesses the authority to unilaterally withdraw from trade agreements, including NAFTA. But it’s somewhat uncharted legal territory, and not all agree. Since Congress enacted NAFTA’s provisions by passing a federal law called the Implementation Act, Johnson argues, which doesn’t grant the president the power to withdraw from NAFTA unilaterally, he can’t act on his own. “Since NAFTA was approved by Congress under the authority expressly granted to Congress under the Commerce Clause, it follows that only Congress has the power to reverse that approval and cause the United States to withdraw from NAFTA,” he concludes.
    Last edited by Zippyjuan; 12-01-2018 at 10:58 PM.
    Donald Trump: 'What you're seeing and what you're reading is not what's happening'

    "Truth isn't truth"- Rudy Giuliani

    "China has total respect for Donald Trump and for Donald Trump's very, very large brain," - Donald Trump.

    I am Zippy and I approve of this post. But you don't have to.

  15. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    That may not quite be so simple. He can notify Congress, but since they passed a law ratifying it, they may also need to change that law before the ratification can be revoked.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/politics...-order/524463/
    If he notifies the other countries that we are pulling out and they stop abiding by it will Congress have any choice?
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  16. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    If he notifies the other countries that we are pulling out and they stop abiding by it will Congress have any choice?
    They could tie it up for possibly years with lawsuits.

    https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/10/17...-out-of-nafta/

    Joel Trachtman, a professor of international law at Tufts University, argues that Trump cannot terminate U.S. participation in a foreign trade agreement without the consent of Congress. He cites the 1994 Supreme Court case Barclays v. California, which held that “the Constitution expressly grants Congress, not the President, the power to ‘regulate Commerce with foreign Nations.’”

    “The president doesn’t have power to unilaterally withdraw the United States from trade agreements, including NAFTA,” Trachtman told Foreign Policy. “He could do it with congressional authorization, but there is no congressional authorization that currently exists.”

    Jon Johnson, who advised the Canadian government on NAFTA negotiations in the 1990s, agrees. “Since NAFTA was approved by Congress under the authority expressly granted to Congress under the Commerce Clause, it follows that only Congress has the power to reverse that approval and cause the United States to withdraw from NAFTA,” he wrote in a January report.
    A May 2017 report from the Congressional Research Service notes that the president clearly has the authority to end U.S. participation in international agreements, and NAFTA allows member countries to withdraw if they give six months’ notice to the other members. But, the report notes, “Despite the President’s ability to withdraw from the agreement, the repeal of statutory provisions implementing NAFTA would likely require congressional assent.”

    Those statutory provisions refer to the NAFTA Implementation Act, the piece of legislation that actually put NAFTA provisions into force by ending tariffs and taking other measures. The president has no power to unilaterally undo a congressional statute; that would require an act of Congress. Under that reading, even if Trump were able to technically withdraw from NAFTA, the agreement’s trade provisions would largely remain in force.
    Donald Trump: 'What you're seeing and what you're reading is not what's happening'

    "Truth isn't truth"- Rudy Giuliani

    "China has total respect for Donald Trump and for Donald Trump's very, very large brain," - Donald Trump.

    I am Zippy and I approve of this post. But you don't have to.

  17. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    They could tie it up for possibly years with lawsuits.

    https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/10/17...-out-of-nafta/
    But if the agreement they signed off on gives him the authority then he has it.

    And if the other two countries stop abiding by it they won't have much choice.
    Last edited by Swordsmyth; 12-02-2018 at 01:18 AM.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  18. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by Swordsmyth View Post
    But if the agreement they signed of on gives him th authority then he has it.

    And if the other two countries stop abiding by it they won't have much choice.
    "A party" may give notice it intends to withdraw from the treaty. The President is not a participant (party)- the country is. And the agreement had no force if only he signed it- it required Congress to agree. It will take Congress to agree to undo it as well- based on their Constitutional powers "to regulate foreign commerce" (Article One, section 8).
    Donald Trump: 'What you're seeing and what you're reading is not what's happening'

    "Truth isn't truth"- Rudy Giuliani

    "China has total respect for Donald Trump and for Donald Trump's very, very large brain," - Donald Trump.

    I am Zippy and I approve of this post. But you don't have to.



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  20. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by Zippyjuan View Post
    "The participants". The President is not a participant- the country is. And the agreement had no force if only he signed it- it required Congress to agree. It will take Congress to agree to undo it as well- based on their Constitutional powers "to regulate foreign commerce".
    Congress has no power to implement international agreements that aren't treaties and NAFTA didn't get a 2/3rds vote in the Senate so it was never really valid anyway.
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment

  21. #18
    Trump, Trudeau, Peña Nieto sign USMCA trade deal as G-20 kicks off



    President Donald Trump, Mexico's President Enrique Pena Nieto, left, and Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau attend the USMCA signing ceremony before the G-20 summit in Buenos Aires on Friday. Andres Stapf / Reuters
    Nov. 30, 2018

  22. #19
    Fortunately, USMCA is not yet a done deal. Senator Pat Toomey (R-Penn.) has informed Trump that the votes to pass USMCA are not yet there, as opposition remains from members of both parties. Senator Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), told CNN, “The president needs to talk to Congress on this and we can get back to the table with the Mexicans and the Canadians and do stronger labor standards.”


    Another Democrat, Senator Ron Wyden of Oregon, asked, “If this deal is so great, why is he already resorting to threats to try and ram this through Congress?”

    Senator Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) has expressed his own concerns, tweeting that the deal was “unacceptable,” because he contends it would kill the Florida vegetable market.

    William F. Jasper, senior editor of The New American, has said that it is unlikely that Trump has actually read the USMCA deal (it's an extremely long document — more than 1,800 pages!), and that he is just going by what his advisors have told him is in the agreement. This means, of course, that the president himself, who ran for president on an "America First" agenda, could have second thoughts about the agreement when he finds out more about what is actually in it.

    Americans who value their nation’s independence need to address this issue with their members of the House and Senate, right now. And, while they are at it, members of Congress should be asked just why such a far-reaching agreement is not a treaty. Under the Constitution, a treaty must be approved by not just a majority of the Senate, but by two-thirds of the Senate, before it can be considered law in the United States. And, any treaty must be in accordance with the Constitution itself, before it is legally binding.

    More at: https://www.thenewamerican.com/world...t-scuttle-both
    Never attempt to teach a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig.

    Robert Heinlein

    Give a man an inch and right away he thinks he's a ruler

    Groucho Marx

    I love mankind…it’s people I can’t stand.

    Linus, from the Peanuts comic

    You cannot have liberty without morality and morality without faith

    Alexis de Torqueville

    Those who fail to learn from the past are condemned to repeat it.
    Those who learn from the past are condemned to watch everybody else repeat it

    A Zero Hedge comment



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